Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 250408
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
908 PM MST SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...COOL TEMPERATURES AND A FEW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN IN THE
FORECAST FOR MEMORIAL DAY. THESE SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH ON MONDAY
EVENING. BY TUESDAY...THE WEATHER PATTERN BEGINS TO SHIFT TO WARMER
AND DRIER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH ARIZONA
TOMORROW WILL KEEP A FEW SHOWERS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN
THE FORECAST FOR MEMORIAL DAY. DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION FROM TUESDAY ONWARD AS THE LONGWAVE PATTERN
GRADUALLY SHIFTS FROM A TROUGH TO A RIDGE BY THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK.

SO FAR MAY 2015 HAS BEEN A WET MONTH FOR MOST LOCATIONS AS COMPARED
TO SEASONAL AVERAGES. THE LAST TIME THE MONTH OF MAY HAD THIS MUCH
WIDESPREAD MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION WAS SIX YEARS AGO BACK IN
MAY OF 2009.

THE AFTERNOON FORECAST GRIDS LOOK GOOD. NO EVENING UPDATES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /315 PM MST/...UNSTABLE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL FILL
IN TONIGHT BEHIND THE SOUTHERN ARIZONA SHORTWAVE...KEEPING A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT. ON MEMORIAL DAY...A
MINOR DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW MOVES THROUGH
NORTHERN ARIZONA EXTENDING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. CHANCES ON
MONDAY WILL FAVOR AREAS FROM THE MOGOLLON RIM NORTH.

COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...THOUGH MONDAY`S HIGHS WILL WARM 5 TO 7 DEGREES OVER
TODAY`S HIGHS. A MARKEDLY DRIER AND WARMER PATTERN WILL DEVELOP
TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
RETURN CLOSE TO NORMAL BY MIDWEEK...AND WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL BY
LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS TO
CONTINUE THIS EVENING. ON MONDAY...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL REDEVELOP ALONG WITH A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM OR TWO.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...THOUGH MVFR AND GUSTY WINDS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE THIS EVENING AS TWO AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE INTERACT OVER THE
STATE. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
AGAIN ON MEMORIAL DAY. ON TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO
BUILD OVER ARIZONA WITH WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS.

.WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
OVER ARIZONA WITH DRIER AND MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS. LIGHTER WINDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...BOHLIN/MCS
AVIATION...BOHLIN
FIRE WEATHER...MAS


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