Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 031015
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
315 AM MST MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DRY AND MORE STABLE AIR HAS OVERTAKEN MUCH OF NORTHERN
ARIZONA BRINGING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO THE REGION. DRY AIR WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. BEGINNING THURSDAY...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH LEADING TO A RETURN OF DAILY
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE DOMINANT ACROSS NORTHERN
ARIZONA AS DRY AIR HAS TAKEN OVER. THIS DRY WESTERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH ANY CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS CONFINED TO THE WHITE MOUNTAINS...AND PERHAPS ALONG
THE NEW MEXICO BORDER THIS AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...SUNNY SKIES AND
NEAR TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED.

THURSDAY ONWARD...MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A MOISTURE
SURGE FROM THE SOUTH BEGINNING THURSDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW MEXICO AND A WEST COAST TROUGH.
THIS WOULD RESULT IN DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURNING TO
NORTHERN ARIZONA. AT THE MOMENT...THE BEST CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR TO BE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL
ACROSS NORTHERN AZ OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
-SHRA/-TSRA THIS AFTERNOON NEAR THE NEW MEXICO STATE LINE.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MOTTICE
AVIATION...MOTTICE


FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF


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