Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 182354
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
454 PM MST Mon Mar 18 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Daily rounds of rain and snow showers are expected
through midweek, with warmer and dry weather expected from
Wednesday onward. Unsettled weather looks to potentially make a
return late this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Today...The everlasting cut-off low remains centered
over the lower Colorado River today, slowly meandering around the
southwest. With plenty of moisture and forcing still in place,
another round of rain and snow showers are expected to spread
across northern Arizona today. Latest hi-res guidance hints at
areas mainly along and near the Mogollon Rim as the greatest
chances, with more isolated to scattered coverage elsewhere. Some
steeper lapse-rates (around 8 deg C/km) may allow for some more
vigorous showers to develop, with brief periods of heavy rain/snow
and lightning possible. With the loss of daytime heating,
coverage decreases through the evening with only isolated activity
continuing into the overnight hours.

While overall precipitation amounts will be minimal, along the Rim
0.50-1.00 inches of liquid preciptation is forecast with some higher
amounts possible in the heaviest storms. Accumulating snowfall
should be limited to areas above 8000 feet, as surface temperatures
will be too warm for any notable accumulations at any lower
elevations. Nevertheless, any stronger snow shower may allow for
some quick and short-lived accumulations down to around 6500-7000
feet today.

Tuesday...With the cut-off low still wobbling around Arizona,
another round of rain and snow showers are expected on Tuesday.
However, since the low will drift a bit further eastward, moisture
looks to be a bit less by Tuesday. Thus, coverage and intensity is
expected to be less than today. Nevertheless, some isolated stronger
showers will be possible, with brief heavy rain/snow and gusty
winds. Steeper lapse-rates (around 8-10 deg C/km) with more daytime
heating potential may result better chances for thunder on Tuesday.

With surfaces temperatures a few degrees warm on Tuesday, snow
levels look to be a bit higher, around 7500-8000 feet. Thus, much of
the activity will be rain. However, with a grater surface dewpoint
depression, any heavier shower may cool the surface temperature
closer to freezing and allow for some brief snow accumulations near
7000 feet.

Wednesday through Sunday...Heights begin to rise by midweek as the
cut-off low finally begins to move eastward and high pressure builds
into Arizona. Outside of some lingering showers over the eastern
Mogollon Rim and White Mountains on Wednesday, drier and warmer
conditions are expected to prevail. Temperatures look to peak on
Friday as heights maximize, with afternoon high temperatures
expected to be near-normal to around 5 degrees F above normal for
this time of year.

By the weekend, the ridge becomes degraded as a longwave trough
begins to dip southward into the southwestern US. Breezy southwest
winds and chances for showers look to make a return by Sunday as a
result.

&&

.AVIATION...Tuesday 19/00Z through Wednesday 20/00Z...Periods of
MVFR/IFR through 06Z due to widespread -SHRA/-SHSN with ISO TSRA.
Low CIGS persist along the Mogollon Rim overnight. E-SE winds
15-25 kts, becoming less than 10 kts after 03Z.

OUTLOOK...Wednesday 20/00Z through Friday 22/00Z...SCT -SHRA/-SHSN
through 06Z/Wed with MVFR/IFR conditions, clearing by 12Z/Wed. W
winds 5-15 kts, becoming W-NW Wed/Thu.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Tuesday and Wednesday...Scattered rain and high-
elevation snow showers with a few isolated thunderstorms are
expected for Tuesday afternoon. Temperatures remain cool as winds
return to the west, 5 to 15 mph. Drier and warmer conditions are
anticipated on Wednesday with west-northwest winds, 10 to 20 mph.

Thursday through Saturday...A warming and drying trend persists
through Saturday. Precipitation is not expected during this time
with minimum humidity in the 20 to 30% range each afternoon. West-
southwest winds, 15 to 20 mph, are forecast for Thursday and Friday,
followed by stronger southwest winds, 20 to 35 mph, on Saturday.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Humphreys
AVIATION...Meola
FIRE WEATHER...LaGuardia

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff


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