Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 262235
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
333 PM MST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE CENTER OFF THE BAJA COAST WILL MOVE NORTHWARD AND
INTO IDAHO BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING SUB-TROPICAL AIR TO
ARIZONA THROUGH TUESDAY... RESULTING IN CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. FAIR WEATHER RETURNS WEDNESDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS ARRIVES LATE THURSDAY INTO LATE SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...HIGH CLOUDS HAVE PUSHED NORTHWARD ACROSS ALL OF
NORTHERN ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS HAVE ALSO MOVED
ACROSS SOUTHERN YAVAPAI COUNTY. THESE SHOWERS ARE DRIFTING TO THE
NORTHWEST.

THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER ALONG 30N AND BETWEEN 120W AND 130 WEST WILL
MOVE NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS AND INTO IDAHO. DEEP MOISTURE
ON THE EAST SIDE OF THIS LOW WILL BE PULLED UP INTO ARIZONA.
SATELLITE ESTIMATES INDICATE OVER AN INCH PW OVER NORTHEASTERN
SONORA. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD RAIN SHOWERS NORTHWARD OVER THE
STATE OVERNIGHT AND ON TUESDAY. SHOWER CHANCES WILL DECREASE FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH TUESDAY AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE STATE.
EXPECTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 0.10 TO 0.40
INCHES ALONG/SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM...LIGHTER AMOUNTS TO THE
NORTH. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH... 8500-9500 FEET WITH SOME
LIGHT ACCUMULATION ON THE HIGHEST PEAKS.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY...BUT CLOUDS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AGAIN AS ANOTHER TROUGH SETS UP OFF THE WEST
COAST. THIS NEXT LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THEN SHIFT GRADUALLY SOUTHWARD DURING THE
WEEKEND AS RIDGING BUILDS BACK IN TO OUR NORTH. THIS LOW SHOULD HAVE
MORE MOISTURE AND WILL LINGER LONGER THAN THE FIRST LOW. SOME AREAS
COULD SEE 1 TO 1.5 INCHES OF LIQUID FROM LATE THURSDAY THROUGH LATE
SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE COLDER...WITH SNOW LEVELS
POSSIBLY DOWN TO THE 6500-7000 FOOT RANGE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF THIS
PATTERN IS STILL LOW...AS MODEL FORECASTS CONTINUE TO CHANGE...SO
CHECK BACK FOR UPDATES.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS
ARIZONA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LOOK FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND WIDESPREAD
MVFR CONDITIONS SPREADING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE AREA WITH
SNOW LEVELS AT OR ABOVE 9000 FEET. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY EAST TO
SOUTHEAST 5-15 KT. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.....MAS
AVIATION...MCCOLLUM

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF







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