Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 242207 CCA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
301 PM MST FRI JUN 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Expect mainly dry and warm conditions heading into the
weekend, with a few showers east of Flagstaff. Moisture will
return by early next week as a more monsoonal type of circulation
develops, leading to increased shower and thunderstorm activity
and more seasonable temperatures.


.DISCUSSION...Dry westerly flow in response to a trough moving
through the northern states will continue to gradually push
eastward today and tonight. Any shower and thunderstorm activity
will be confined to eastern Arizona, primarily Apache County. The
moisture plume will remain mostly east of Arizona through the
weekend with the exception of the White Mountains and far eastern
Arizona which will carry a chance for thunderstorms. Daytime
temperatures will be at least 5 degrees warmer than average in
most locations.

Models are in good agreement with high pressure establishing over
the four corners area by Sunday afternoon with an easterly flow
developing over Arizona. This will bring a healthy increase in
moisture resulting in daily showers and thunderstorms. The
weather next week will be more typical of monsoon season with
daily rainfall chances and closer to average temperatures. With
the general position of the high pressure not moving much through
the week, it`s likely this monsoonal circulation will continue
through the week.


.AVIATION...For the 00Z Package...ISOLD-SCT -SHRA/-TSRA G30-40kts
CIGS BKN040 east of a KPAN-KPGA line through 03Z...and again 18Z-
00Z Sat. Elsewhere, expect VFR conditions. Smoke downwind of area
wildfires may impact visibility at times. Aviation discussion not
updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...Dry air will continue to move in from the
west over the next several days. This will limit shower and
thunderstorm coverage to the higher terrain in Apache county through
Sunday. These high based thunderstorms may produce erratic gusty

Monday through Wednesday...Additional moisture begins to move in
from the south and southeast with chances for showers and
thunderstorms expanding westward.






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