Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 022228 CCA
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
330 PM MST MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A DISTURBANCE WILL EXIT INTO NEW MEXICO OVERNIGHT...
SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO DECREASE THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTHERN
ARIZONA. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRING DRYING
CONDITIONS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE
A STRONGER WEATHER SYSTEM DELIVERS WINDY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS...COOL AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS FROM THURSDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND.
&&

.DISCUSSION...A WEAKENING WEATHER DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE
EAST INTO NEW MEXICO OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO DECREASE
THIS EVENING DUE TO LOSS OF HEATING AND AS THE WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES
AWAY FROM THE REGION.

THERE WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG DEVELOPING
AGAIN ON THE NORTH-NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE MOGOLLON RIM AND WHITE
MOUNTAINS TUESDAY MORNING. THERE IS A EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW FORECAST
FOR TUESDAY MORNING AND IF THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS SUFFICIENTLY
MOIST...UPSLOPE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN. IT WAS
DECIDED TO INTRODUCE PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS FOR EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING FOR THIS AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD INTO ARIZONA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH DRYING CONDITIONS AND WARMER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES.

A FAIRLY DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTH ALONG
THE CALIFORNIA COAST LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...AS THIS SYSTEM
APPROACHES NORTHERN ARIZONA EXPECT WINDY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH FORECAST SUSTAIN WINDS FROM 15 TO 30 MPH
AND GUSTS FROM 25 TO 45 MPH. THE STRONGEST WINDS ON THURSDAY ARE
FORECAST TO BE OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN COCONINO AND NORTHWESTERN
YAVAPAI COUNTIES. ON FRIDAY THE STRONGER WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
SHIFT EAST INTO PORTIONS OF EASTERN COCONINO COUNTY AND NAVAJO
AND APACHE COUNTIES ALONG AND EAST OF THE COLD FRONT.

ON FRIDAY...EXPECT INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THERE IS AMPLE
MOISTURE...INSTABILITY...OROGRAPHIC AND SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT TO
SUPPORT AS LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A 0.1-0.2 TENTHS OF AN INCH
MAXIMUM PRECIPITATION IN AREAS OF HEAVIER CONVECTIVE SHOWERS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY THE CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
STILL BE OVER PARTS OF NORTHERN ARIZONA AND COLORADO WITH MULTIPLE
DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THE CLOSED LOW. THERE WILL BE
CONTINUED CHANCES OF SHOWERS EACH DAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS FROM LATE MORNING INTO EARLY EVENING...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DAYTIME HEATING AND THE BEST INSTABILITY. ISOLATED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY ON BOTH DAYS.

MONDAY...FORECAST MODELS INDICATE THE LAST AND FINAL WEATHER
DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO WRAP AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW AND
ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRIMARILY
DAYTIME SHOWERS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...TIL 02Z TUES...BKN-OVC CU/SC WITH
SCT -SHRA AND ISOLD -TSRA...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
MOGOLLON RIM. AFT 02Z PRECIP COVERAGE ENDING WITH MOST AREAS SEEING
VFR CONDITIONS. BTWN 06Z-15Z TUES. AREAS MVFR IN STRATUS ALONG THE
EAST SIDE OF THE MOGOLLON RIM FROM CAMERON TO SHOW LOW. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER..FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY....HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN BRINGING DRY AND MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THURSDAY...THOUGH GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON. A STRONG AND COLD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ARRIVES FRIDAY.
THIS WILL BRING MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES OF RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...TC
AVIATION...DL
FIRE WEATHER...DL


FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF



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