Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 030425
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
925 PM MST THU JUL 02 2015

.SYNOPSIS...THE MONSOON WILL REMAIN ACTIVE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. A SLIGHT DRYING
TREND WILL DEVELOP IN THE WESTERN ZONES EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHILE THE
EASTERN ZONES REMAIN ACTIVE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A NOTICEABLE DOWNTURN IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OCCURRED
TODAY...LIKELY DUE TO MANY FACTORS. THE REPOSITIONING AND WEAKENING
OF OUR HIGH...LESS MID-LEVEL FLOW AND THE AIRMASS BECOMING MORE
MOIST ADIABATIC ALL CONTRIBUTED. IN ADDITION...WE STARTED THE DAY
WITH A RAIN-COOLED AIRMASS...FROM SIGNIFICANT MCS ACTIVITY ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ISOLATED ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS THIS EVENING...BUT MOST AREAS WILL BE QUIET AND UNDER DEBRIS
CLOUD BY MIDNIGHT.

A FEW MORE DAYS OF ACTIVITY LEVELS COMPARABLE TO TODAY ARE LIKELY
OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...BEFORE A DRYING TREND SETS IN EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS DRYING TREND MAY BE MOST NOTICEABLE IN THE WESTERN ZONES.

PRODUCTS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE...BUT WE WILL SEND A MINOR UPDATE TO
REDUCE POPS FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION....FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT WITH ISOLD SHRA/TSRA. SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP AGAIN
AFTER 18Z-20Z FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP A
RELATIVELY MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE DAYS. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH
AFTERNOON...WITH LIGHT WINDS.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A TYPICAL MONSOON WEATHER PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY...WITH DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MAY BRING SOME DRYING TO THE
AREA BY TUESDAY...DECREASING THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF STORMS.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN CLOSE TO NORMAL.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...PETERSON
AVIATION...PETERSON
FIRE WEATHER...BAK


FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF


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