Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 242139
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
240 PM MST FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST AND ALLOW FOR
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY CONDITIONS OVER THE NORTHLAND THIS
WEEKEND. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATE SATURDAY AND
EARLY SUNDAY AS MOISTURE BRIEFLY MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH.
OTHERWISE...FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN ON MONDAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CLEAR SKIES AND WARM TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHERN
ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH AT LEAST ONE LOCATION EXCEEDING
RECORD HIGHS FOR THE DATE. EXPECT ANOTHER CLEAR NIGHT WITH CALM
WINDS BEFORE A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

THIS WEEKEND...A BROAD TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER AND MOVE THROUGH THE
GREAT BASIN THIS WEEKEND. WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA
IN RESPONSE TO THE TROUGHING...WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE 15 TO 25
MPH RANGE AND GUSTS FROM 25 TO 35 MPH...WITH THE FASTEST WINDS ON
SUNDAY. PROGS ARE SHOWING SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING NORTHWARD
LATE SATURDAY AND EARLY SUNDAY AHEAD OF A WEAK DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY
AROUND 25N 120W. THIS FEATURE WILL WEAKEN...AND MOVE THROUGH ARIZONA
WITHIN THE STRENGTHENING SW FLOW. WITH THIS MOISTURE AND ATTENDANT
WEAK ASCENT...WE EXPECT AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS...AND HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT POPS GENERALLY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN LATE SATURDAY AND EARLY SUNDAY. COOLER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH
THE PASSING TROUGH WILL CAUSE MAX TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO
SEASONAL NORMALS LEVELS SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.  MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH INDICATING A DRY
WEATHER PATTERN...WITH TEMPERATURES RISING ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS
ONCE AGAIN AS A STRONG RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN STATES LATE
IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. PRESCRIBED BURN ACTIVITY MAY CAUSE
LOCAL AREAS OF REDUCED VIS IN SMOKE NEAR KFLG AND KGCN OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST 10-15 KTS GUSTING 20-25 KTS
AFT 18Z SATURDAY. AN ISOLATED -SHRA WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........BAK
AVIATION.......MCS

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF







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