Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 271659

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
959 AM MST FRI MAY 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Enough moisture will linger through early next week
for a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms each day.
Otherwise, warmer temperatures are in store starting today and
continuing into next week.


Short-term forecast looks good with no substantial updates
intended this morning.


.PREV DISCUSSION /258 AM MST/...Enough moisture and instability
will remain for the development of high based clouds, showers
and a few thunderstorms to northern Arizona today. Light winds may
become erratic and gusty near high based showers due to the wind
generating effects of evaporative cooling. Otherwise, only a
lingering chance of shower and thunderstorm activity over the
mountain areas this weekend in a warm and light wind weather

Monday and Tuesday...Another weak low moves across the southwest
United States. Look for a slight uptick in the chance for
showers and storms, primarily over the mountains.

Wednesday and Thursday...Models show high pressure building in
from the West. Expect light winds and a strong drying trend
across Arizona. Daytime temperatures could may well climb to above
normal. Just in time for June.


.AVIATION...For the 18Z Package...Expect VFR conditions for the
next 24 hours with a return of isold to sct high based SHRA and
TSRA mainly from the Mogollon Rim northward 18Z-01Z. Erratic and
gusty winds are possible near SHRA/TSRA. Aviation discussion not
updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
across northern Arizona this afternoon and evening. Storms will
be confined to higher elevations along and north Interstate 40 on
Saturday. Erratic and gusty winds possible with any showers or

Sunday through Tuesday...Only isolated showers and thunderstorms
are expected with relatively light winds into early next week.
Critical fire weather conditions are not expected at this time.






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