Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29

FXUS65 KFGZ 171626

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
926 AM MST Fri Nov 17 2017

.SYNOPSIS...An approaching cold front will produce strong
southwesterly winds today. Scattered showers are possible along
the Utah border through Friday evening. The cold front to cross
the northland tonight, with cold temperatures through Sunday
morning. Dry and warmer weather returns for next week.


Several updates to the previous forecast package. Have increased
shower chances and sky cover through this afternoon for Yavapai
and Coconino counties per satellite imagery and the latest HRRR
model. Precip totals should be less than 0.10". The slight chance
of showers from Saturday through Thursday for the high terrain of
Coconino county have been removed.

Todays wind advisory looks good, a few site along the Utah border
are gusting to 45 mph now. The surface cold front along a line
from Provo UT through Santa Maria CA now, and still expected to
cross into nrn AZ this evening.


.PREV DISCUSSION /444 AM MST/... A shortwave trough will pass
across the area this evening, with widespread windy conditions
ahead of the associated cold front. A wind advisory remains in
place for most of Northern Arizona at 11 am through 6 pm tonight.
Some shower activity is expected across the higher terrain,
mainly along the Utah - Arizona border.

Dry conditions and decreasing winds are expected behind the cold
front, along with some of the coldest temperatures experienced
this season. The cool down should be relatively short lived with
Saturday and Sunday mornings being the coldest times. Temperatures
will begin to rebound by Sunday afternoon climbing back to near
seasonal normals.

Models are in some disagreement concerning the placement of
another shortwave trough moving across the Four Corners Region.
While timing remains a major discrepancy, neither operational
solution has any precipitation or significant weather associated
with this shortwave impacting Northern Arizona. A slight change in
the solutions could change these solutions.

By Tuesday both models return to agreement that a ridge of high
pressure off the California Coast Builds into the Southwest
through the remainder of the extended forecast bringing warm
temperatures and dry weather to the region.


.AVIATION...For the 18Z package...VFR conditions are forecast for
the majority of northern Arizona over the next 24 hours. Winds
this afternoon out of the southwest at 20-25kts gusting 30-40kts
fastest winds along and north of the Mogollon Rim. Winds will die
down this evening and be light tomorow. Scattered -SHRA into
early this afternoon with the best chances over the higher
elevations. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...An approaching cold front will cause strong
southwest winds today, with the highest speeds along and north of
the Mogollon Rim. Light showers are also possible tonight through
Friday evening, mainly along and north of Interstate 40. Saturday,
expect winds to become north to northeast and decrease, ushering in
a very dry air mass behind the front.

Sunday through Tuesday...Light winds and very dry conditions return
as high pressure builds. Temperatures gradually increase each day,
reaching well above average values by Tuesday.


evening FOR AZZ004>007-009>017- 039-040.




For Northern Arizona weather information visit is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.