Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 252252
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
552 PM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail at all area terminals this evening.
However, thunderstorms developing over the higher terrain of New
Mexico are expected to move south into the region late tonight. Have
included TSRA at all sites overnight with variable and gusty winds
and MVFR visibility.  After the complex of storms moves through, a
MVFR ceiling may form and affect several sites through Monday
morning before lifting.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 149 PM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017/

Today`s diurnal heating cycle will prove productive in the
proliferation of tstms across the NM mtn chain, probably even
s into the Davis/GDP Mtns and across the nrn PB (more limited
instability) in response to a shrtwv trof tracking se out of the
Panhandle. High resolution convective allowing models are
supportive of larger clusters of tstms that will track e-se across
the ern NM plains, arriving in N Lea County before 05Z. Good
directional shear and a modest LLJ will support their long track
sewd. Around 05Z/26 the convection allowing TTU WRF depicts
outflow pushing out ahead of storms signaling their eventual
demise or at least weakening? Current forecast already has PoPs
much higher than MOS guidance and we will make only minor changes.
Latest data is suggesting that core of precip will track across
areas just to the n of the CWFA, however storms will still extend
back to sw and there will be a good chance of storms along and
north of I-20 after 06Z/26. For now we will include the mention
of severe storms and locally heavy rain, mostly after 00Z/26
mostly across SE NM, but could be as far sw as the GDP Mtns?
Remnants of said storms including the shrtwv trof will most
likely set-up a down day convectively speaking for Mon afternoon,
especially across the PB? However in the mtns mstr will remain in
place and the diurnal heating cycle does favor slight chance/chance
PoPs there. Mon PM storms will again develop in the NM mtns and
move sewd into the evening, but signals are not as good WRT them
making it thru SE NM, thus lower PoPs warranted for Mon night/Tue
AM there. GFS/ECMWF do show a minor shrtwv trof moving s and
arriving in PB around 12z Tue so a few -SHRA/-TSRA are possible
for the ern 1/3 or so of CWFA. Tue PM tstms will be mostly be
favored in the GDP/Davis Mtns. Wed wly mid level component serves
to bring drier low level air into wrn CWFA, however a mid level
theta-e ridge axis will nose in from MX across the Trans Pecos. A
few storms will be possible where low level mstr/elevated heat
sources/said theta-e ridge are in alignment across the Lower
Trans Pecos. Temperatures will mostly show a warming trend Tue-
Sat. NAEFS 85h and 7h temp data suggest 0 to +1 and +1 standard
deviations, respectively. MEX data is warmest and Thur-Fri high
temps could be as much as 7-10 degrees above normal. We will
continue to reflect the blended data which is closer to the lower
end of the 7-10 degree departure range.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     69  86  69  92 /  40  40  40  10
Carlsbad                       69  89  68  96 /  50  30  30  20
Dryden                         72  91  72  96 /  10  10  10  20
Fort Stockton                  70  90  68  93 /  30  20  20  20
Guadalupe Pass                 64  82  64  90 /  50  30  30  30
Hobbs                          67  84  65  89 /  50  40  30  10
Marfa                          62  85  61  89 /  30  30  30  30
Midland Intl Airport           70  87  69  93 /  40  40  40  10
Odessa                         70  87  69  91 /  40  40  30  10
Wink                           70  90  69  96 /  40  30  30  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$



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