Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 210520
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1220 AM CDT Mon Aug 21 2017



.AVIATION...
06Z TAF issuance.

Currently have VFR conditions across the board however the next wave
of thunderstorms look to be moving north toward PEQ and SE NM
terminals. Attempting to anticipate when convection would affect
TAF sites, added TEMPO TS to all but MAF starting around 06-08Z at
FST and PEQ followed by INK, CNM and HOB an hour or two later.
Heavy rainfall will be possible and may result in brief periods of
low vis during this time.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 626 PM CDT Sun Aug 20 2017/

UPDATE...
Showers and thunderstorms continue to produce heavy
rain across SE NM, the Davis Mountains and the Upper Trans Pecos.
1-2 inches of rain has already fallen at many locations in the
area this afternoon. Hi-res models show another round of heavy
rain expected to develop over the Big Bend tonight. This area of
rain will likely move north across the most saturated area which
could cause more flash flooding. The ongoing Flash Flood Watch has
been expanded east and south for the above reasons. Heavy rain
should begin to taper off around sunrise Monday.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 159 PM CDT Sun Aug 20 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Over the next week, we expect temperatures to remain at or above
seasonal norms for the most part, though slightly cooler
temperatures are on tap mid-week. Though it will remain warm, rain
chances will continue across parts of the area for the next
several days.

Under the influence of an upper level ridge over south Texas,
satellite water vapor imagery depicts more significant mid-level
moisture shunted west of a large part of the area today with
deeper moisture and corresponding theta-e ridge confined to the
higher terrain, resulting in little if any thunderstorm activity
across the eastern half of the area and enhanced thunderstorm
chances west. Satellite imagery also appears to show a weak MCV
circulation left from overnight convection in northern Mexico
moving northward close to the western Culberson county line which
could enhance thunderstorm development in Culberson and Eddy
Counties over the next several hours. These areas also have
precipitable water values in excess of 1.5" suggesting that
locally heavy rainfall will be possible through the evening hours.
High rainfall rates and slow storm movement could bring some
areas excessive rainfall resulting in flash flooding of arroyos
and small streams. A flash flood watch has already been issued and
will continue through the overnight hours for Culberson and Eddy
counties.

On Monday, weak southwesterly flow aloft develops as low presently
over southwest New Mexico pulls northeastward, dragging a weak upper
trough into southeast New Mexico. With a coincident surface trough
providing low level convergence into the plains of southeast New
Mexico, expect to see an increased chance of thunderstorms over that
area Monday afternoon and evening while deep moisture and daytime
heating will provide for continuing scattered thunderstorm activity
over the mountains. Elevated precipitable water values again
suggest the potential for locally heavy rain.

By Tuesday afternoon, upper ridge will build from northern Mexico
through central New Mexico bringing northwest upper flow which will
help push a weak cold front into the area. Though NAM model
previously lagged other models with respect to frontal progress,
operational models now somewhat consistent bringing front into the
northern Permian Basin and southeast New Mexico by late afternoon.
Timing of front during maximum heating will help boost thunderstorm
chances across southeast New Mexico and the Permian Basin.

In wake of front, will expect temperatures to drop slightly below
seasonal norms Wednesday and Thursday, though warmer temperatures
will return for the week`s end as weak ridging develops aloft. A
moist south to southeast surface flow will help keep isolated to
scattered thunderstorms in the forecast. Better chances will be in
the mountain areas where upslope flow will provide lift.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     73  94  70  88 /   0  20  50  30
Carlsbad                       69  93  69  89 /  20  20  30  30
Dryden                         74  96  74  94 /   0  10  10  30
Fort Stockton                  71  95  70  89 /  10  20  30  40
Guadalupe Pass                 66  84  64  80 /  20  30  30  30
Hobbs                          68  88  67  85 /  20  30  40  20
Marfa                          63  87  63  84 /  20  50  40  50
Midland Intl Airport           73  92  71  89 /   0  20  50  30
Odessa                         72  93  70  88 /  10  20  50  30
Wink                           71  95  70  90 /  10  10  40  30

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Flash Flood Watch until 6 AM MDT Monday for Central Lea County-
     Eddy County Plains-Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-
     Northern Lea County-Southern Lea County.

TX...Flash Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT /6 AM MDT/ this morning for
     Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Guadalupe Mountains-Loving-
     Marfa Plateau-Presidio Valley-Reeves County and Upper Trans
     Pecos-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

&&

$$

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