Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 261930
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
230 PM CDT Wed Apr 26 2017

.DISCUSSION...

There is an upper trough centered over the central part of the
country. A cold front is pushing south into the area allowing for a
brief relief from the 90 degree temperatures. High temperatures
today are expected to be in the 70s and 80s across most of the area.
Despite this cool down, there is still fire weather concerns across
the southern CWA. See fire weather discussion below.

An extension of the previous upper trough will pass over the area on
Thursday allowing for higher winds aloft to mix down to the surface.
This will create possible high winds in the Guadalupe Mountains so a
High Wind Watch is in effect Thursday for this area. Surface winds
will become southwesterly to westerly with a surface trough in the
Texas panhandle. These winds will contribute to downslope warming
with high temperatures in the 80s and 90s across most of West Texas
and southeast New Mexico on Thursday. On Friday, winds will not be
quite as strong as on Thursday but otherwise similar conditions will
be present with highs mostly in the 80s and 90s.

Another upper trough will begin moving over the central part of the
country on Saturday. This will bring a cold front into the area on
Saturday as well as a chance of precipitation mainly across the
northern and eastern half of the CWA Friday night through Saturday
night. The precipitation will likely be out of the area by Sunday
but the surface high will move closer so high temperatures on Sunday
will be in the 60s and 70s.

A warm-up is expected on Monday as surface winds become west to
southwest and the previous upper trough lifts northeastward.
Temperatures on Tuesday will continue to warm up; otherwise, not
much change is expected. Another upper trough will move over the
Central Plains next Wednesday bringing a cold front into the area
but no precipitation at this time.

.FIRE WEATHER...

An upper level trough is exiting the region today, however west
winds will remain strong enough to continue the critical fire
weather threat in far West Texas and southeast New Mexico into
tomorrow. Winds are diminishing this afternoon behind a quick
hitting cold front and will return from the southwest overnight.
Then a developing upper level low over the western states will
increase the wind speeds enough tomorrow to create critical fire
weather conditions for much of the area west of the Pecos River.
Windy conditions are expected to continue into the weekend but
cooler temperatures will increase humidities enough to alleviate the
fire danger threat and prevent the issuance of a Red Flag Warning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     54  92  61  90 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       52  91  62  88 /   0   0   0  10
Dryden                         59  93  64  95 /   0   0  10   0
Fort Stockton                  58  94  65  93 /   0   0  10   0
Guadalupe Pass                 52  80  57  80 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          49  88  57  85 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          47  86  51  86 /   0   0  10   0
Midland Intl Airport           55  92  63  91 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         55  91  64  91 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           53  94  64  92 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains.

     Red Flag Warning from noon to 6 PM MDT Thursday for Guadalupe
     Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     High Wind Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday evening
     for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ this evening for Big
     Bend Area-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Guadalupe Mountains-
     Marfa Plateau-Terrell-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

     Red Flag Warning from 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ to 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/
     Thursday for Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Guadalupe
     Mountains-Marfa Plateau-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-
     Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

     High Wind Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday evening
     for Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

10/80



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