Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 030459
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1159 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

WILL LET THE SVR TSTM WATCH EXPIRE AT MIDNIGHT.

THE STORMS IN SOUTHWEST IOWA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. LATEST HRRR AND RAP MODEL RUNS SUPPORT THAT.
THE QUESTION THEN BECOMES WILL THERE BE ANY MORE DEVELOPMENT FOR
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT NEW STORMS BUT IT
APPEARS IF THERE IS ANYTHING IT WOULD BE TOWARD MORNING AND ACROSS
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...BUT CHANCES BETTER THERE AFTER 14Z.

&&

UPDATE ISSUED AT 615 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

ATMOSPHERE AT 22Z WAS EXTREMELY UNSTABLE WITH SPC MESO PAGE WAS
SHOWING 100 MB ML CAPE VALUES OVER 5000 J/KG ALONG SOUTHWARD MOVING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. EFFECTIVE SHEAR GENERALLY LESS THAN 30 KNOTS BUT
SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE THROUGH THE EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ADVERTISING A QUITE NOTICEABLE COOLING
TREND OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ALL THIS IN PART TO NW FLOW ALOFT
BRINGING A CANADIAN AIR MASS INTO THE LOWER 48 WITH THE BRUNT OF CAA
DROPPING DOWN THRU THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

FOR TONIGHT...NAM12 BNDRY LYR MOISTURE/INSTABILITY IS QUITE OVERDONE
IN COMPARISON TO GFS20 SOLUTION WITH THE LATEST ECM/CMC LENDING
SUPPORT SHOWING TO A DRIER AIR MASS QUICKLY FILTERING IN. AND AT
THIS POINT BELIEVE SMALL OVERNIGHT POPS IS REASONABLE. ON MONDAY THE
BNDRY IS PROGGED TO STALL OUT IN THE VICINITY OF THE SRN CWA WITH
CONVECTIVE INITIATION ON EDGE OF CAP. STRENGTHENING LLVL JET MONDAY
NIGHT WILL THEN RESULT IN INCREASING AREAL COVERAGE OF PCPN
ACTIVITY OVER THE CWA.

SFC BNDRY ADVERTISED TO SLOWLY LIFT AND FOR THE MOST PART REMAIN IN
THE GENERAL VICINITY OF THE NERN CWA TUESDAY WHERE AFTN INSTABILITY
AXIS WILL SET UP PER THE NAM12/GFS20. WILL THEREFORE MAINTAIN FOCUS
FOR POPS IN THOSE PORTIONS OF THE CWA. AS FOR WED...WILL CONTINUE
SMALL POPS IN LIGHT OF VIGOROUS LITTLE VORT MAX TRACKING THRU.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING
PREVAILING OVER THE CONUS. GFS/ECM/CMC QPF PLACEMENT APPEAR TO BE
GENERALLY SIMILAR...BUT BELIEVE THEY ARE SOMEWHAT EXCESSIVE
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PDS. AND FOR NOW ONLY MINOR TWEAKS
MADE TO GOING POP FCST.

REGARDING TEMPS...METEOGRAMS ACROSS THE CWA INDICATE BELOW NORMAL
MAX TEMPS ARE IN STORE HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH AFTN HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

TSRA CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME...
AND HAVE KEPT FORECASTS VFR. WILL NEED TO ADJUST IF TIMING OR
LOCATION OF POSSIBLE STORMS BECOMES MORE CLEAR. DID MENTION SOME
SHRA AT KOFK BETWEEN 14Z AND 17Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MILLER
SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...MILLER



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