Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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FXUS63 KOAX 211122

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
522 AM CST Tue Nov 21 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 328 AM CST Tue Nov 21 2017

A surface cold front continues to dive through the area this
morning ushering in strong cold-air advection due in part to a
shortwave trough moving southeast across the Northern Plains.
Steady to slowly falling temperatures are expected throughout the
day with blustery northwest surface winds gusting to 25-35 mph.
Light precipitation cannot be completely ruled out this morning
behind the boundary, however point forecast soundings indicate a
very dry layer below about 800mb and and so am doubtful if any
precipitation will even make it to the ground. Will continue the
mention of flurries/sprinkles through the first few hours of the
forecast anyway but have serious doubts. Surface high pressure
ridge axis settles over the region overnight. Have dropped lows
into the mid to upper teens in most areas as winds become light.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Monday)
Issued at 328 AM CST Tue Nov 21 2017

The remainder of the forecast continues to look dry with mainly wind
and temperatures as the primary focus. Warming southerly winds will
increase in return low-level flow by Wednesday while an amplified
ridge builds over the western CONUS. This will send warm 850mb air
in our direction Thursday night into Friday. By 18z Friday, a
Northern Plains short-wave trough will send a cold front into the
region allowing strong mixing to occur at max heating. At the same
time, 850mb temps are progged around +18C in our south.  Have
continued to bump highs up a few degrees from the blended model
output, especially in our south. Still thinking we could approach
70 in many locations. A brief cooldown is expected behind this
front for Saturday into Sunday however return flow ushers warmer
air into the area for early next week as the upper level ridge
axis builds east.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 517 AM CST Tue Nov 21 2017

Surface cold front has dropped through all three TAF sites this
morning. A few sprinkles or flurries are possible for an hour this
morning, but dry low-levels are preventing much precipitation from
reaching the ground. Ceiling heights remain VFR and do expect them
to remain as such. North-northwest surface winds will gust to
around 30 kts this morning and afternoon before subsiding toward




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