Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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FXUS63 KOAX 251431

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
931 AM CDT Tue Oct 25 2016

Issued at 927 AM CDT Tue Oct 25 2016

Updated the forecast to slow down the arrival of precip. Latest
HRRR/RAP/ESL HRRR/Nam models generally suggest that precip chances
will hold off until after 6 pm. Highres NMM/ARW Nam models from
00z still suggest that isolated storms could develop in northeast
NE late this afternoon, but it seems the better chances will hold
off until tonight and have adjusted grids accordingly.


.SHORT TERM...(today through Thursday)
Issued at 319 AM CDT Tue Oct 25 2016

Latest model solutions confirm going fcst over the next several days
is in pretty good shape. The feature of interest this morning
remains shortwave trof ejecting out of the central Rockies
with convective development expected later this afternoon.

Good agreement amongst the models increasing DPVA induces leeside
surface low pressure with impressive boundary layer theta-E
advection for this time of the year ensuing. By late this afternoon
the RAP13 progs rapid destabilization with MLCAPEs peaking around
2000 J/KG. However...the RAP13 is also suggesting initiation will
probably be delayed until until late afternoon and occur on the edge
of the cap extending roughly from nern Neb to w-cntrl IA. At this
point it appears to be at least a marginal threat for severe
storm development mainly south of the I-80 corridor along a
lifting warm front where effective shear/instability will be
maximized. Pcpn activity will likely expand then in areal coverage
during the evening hours with onset of llvl jet. In
is quite possible locally heavy rainfall will be realized come
early Wednesday morning given environmental moisture will be
plentiful with well above normal PWS values peaking around 1.5".

Dry and quite pleasant conditions on tap then Wednesday afternoon
into Thursday night.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Monday)
Issued at 319 AM CDT Tue Oct 25 2016

No significant changes needed in the extended periods as the
medium range models continue to advertise benign weather into next
weekend along with above normal temps.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 636 AM CDT Tue Oct 25 2016

VFR cigs near FL050 and southeast winds increasing to 15kt will be
the story of the first half of the TAF period through 00Z. There
is a small chance an isolated shower could develop near KOMA
during the day, however. Low pressure will move into eastern
Nebraska this evening. Showers and thunderstorms are expected near
KOFK and KOMA, but may develop northeast of KLNK area. There will
be a several hour period between 00Z and 06Z when storms could
affect all TAF sites with attendant MVFR cigs/vsbys. Most
precipitation potential will be east of TAF sites by 06Z. After
06Z, MVFR cigs near FL015 are expected to spread southeast across
KOFK and KOMA areas, but again should remain northeast of KLNK.
There is a chance cigs will lower to IFR by 12Z at KOMA and KOFK
with areas of MVFR fog.




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