Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 181743
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1243 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN RETURNS TO THE FORECAST AREA THIS
WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY THE LATTER HALF...AS WEST COAST SHORT WAVE
ENERGY INTERACTS WITH INCREASING MOISTURE.

HOWEVER...BEFORE THEN TEMPERATURES ARE PRIMARY FOCUS INTO
SATURDAY. SHORTWAVE UPPER RIDGING OVER PLAINS TODAY WILL PROVIDE
WARM ADVECTION AS NRN SECTION OF WRN U.S. UPPER TROUGH BRINGS
FALLING PRESSURES OVER WRN PLAINS AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE FA...ESPECIALLY
BY AFTERNOON. THIS IN TURN SHOULD BRING AN INCREASED FIRE DANGER
TO AREA THIS AFTERNOON. EVEN THOUGH SFC DEWPOINTS COULD RECOVER A
BIT TODAY...LOWERING THEM TOWARD GUIDANCE DID PROVIDE A PERIOD OF
AFTERNOON RH VALUES NEAR 30 PERCENT. PREV FORECAST TEMPS LOOKED
REASONABLE AND WERE SUPPORTED BY BUFKIT SOUNDINGS/MODEL GUIDANCE.

INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET COULD KICK OFF A FEW HIGH BASED SHOWERS
IN NWRN ZONES SATURDAY MORNING AS ANY ENERGY ON SRN SIDE OF NRN
STREAM TROUGH INTERACTS. HOWEVER...AS THAT TROUGH DEPARTS WOULD
SUSPECT BETTER CHANCES OF ANY CONVECTION WOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL
SATURDAY EVENING AND ESPECIALLY SAT NIGHT AS BETTER MOISTURE FEEDS
NORTH AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN SRN STREAM TROUGH BEGINS TO APPROACH
REGION. BASED ON CURRENT FORECASTS OF GFS/ECMWF...H85
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY IS NOT QUITE AS ROBUST THRU SAT AFTN COMPARED
TO LAST SATURDAY SO MAIN ACTION MAY WAIT FOR DIURNAL LOW LEVEL JET
STRENGTHENING. THUS ADJUSTED POPS SLIGHTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR A
DECREASED CHANCE MANY AREAS SAT AFTN/EVENING WITH BEST CHANCES
GENERALLY FOCUSED AFT 06Z. BOOSTED HIGHS A BIT SERN ZONES AHEAD OF
WEAK BOUNDARY AS H85 TEMPS CONTINUE TO WARM AHEAD OF IT.

SUNDAY BECOMES MORE TRICKY AS SRN STREAM UPPER TROUGH BEGINS
EJECTING ACROSS MAINLY THE SRN PLAINS BUT CLOSE ENOUGH TO IMPACT
FA. WITH H85 TEMPS INITIALLY ANYWAY PRETTY MILD ANY BREAKS IN
SHOWERS/TSTMS COULD PROVIDE A QUICK BOOST INTO 70S WHILE AREAS
WITH MORE CLOUDS/PCPN COULD STRUGGLE TO CLIMB ABOVE 60/MID 60S. IN
GENERAL FOCUSED COOLER TEMPS GENERALLY WHERE GFS/ECMWF FOCUSED QPF
AXIS ACROSS WRN ZONES AND ALSO BOOSTED POPS MOST AREAS...ESPECIALLY
PARTS OF THE WEST.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

DEPARTING ENERGY EARLY MONDAY COULD PROVIDE SERN ZONES WITH SMALL
MOSTLY MORNING POPS MONDAY OTHERWISE IT LOOKS DRY MON AFTN THROUGH
TUESDAY AS SHORT WAVE RIDGING AHEAD OF NEXT TROUGH SPREADS ACROSS
THE PLAINS. SINCE THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH COULD PROVIDE AN ACTIVE
MID/LATE WEEK...REMOVED SMALL POPS WITH WARM ADVECTION TUESDAY.
BOOSTED READINGS A BIT ON WED AS THAT WILL BE SECOND DAY OF WARM
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS NEXT THROUGH ALTHOUGH IF WARM ADVECTION
PRECIP IS WIDESPREAD/LINGERS MUCH OF THE DAY THIS WOULD BE IN
ERROR. OTHERWISE LITTLE/NO CHANGES TO PREV FORECAST/MODEL BLEND
TO TEMPS. DECENT RAIN/TSTM CHANCES RETURN IN LATE WED-THURSDAY
AND POSSIBLY NEW DAY 7 PERIOD IF UPPER TROUGH CLOSES NW OF AREA
PER GFS INSTEAD OF THE MORE PROGRESSIVE ECMWF. IN ANY
EVENT...LOOKS LIKE DECENT CHANCE MANY AREAS COULD SEE DECENT 7
DAY RAINFALL TOTALS WITH ACTIVITY THIS WEEKEND+NEXT WED/THU
PERIODS.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE TAF CYCLE. MORNING
SMOKE AND HAZE HAS MIXED OUT AND VISIBILITIES CONTINUE TO IMPROVE
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS SOUTHERLY SFC WINDS INCREASE AND GUST TO
NEAR 30 KTS. PASSING HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. HAVE
INTRODUCED LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR FROM NEAR 06Z THROUGH 15Z OR SO AS
A SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHERMOK
LONG TERM...CHERMOK
AVIATION...KERN



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