Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 232043
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
343 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2015

RAP13 ADVERTISING ANTICIPATED PCPN SHOULD BE UNDERWAY THIS EVENING
WITH INITIATION OVER CNTRL KS WITHIN AREA OF INTENSE BNDRY LYR THETA-
E CONVERGENCE/MOIST 295K UPGLIDE...WITH FORCING BEING ENHANCED 850-
250MB DIFF. SEVERAL RUNS OF THE RAP13 HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT FOCUSING
BULK OF OVERNIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-80 WITH SOME
LOCATIONS POSSIBLY RECEIVING A HALF INCH OR SO BY 12Z TUES
MORNING. WITH THE RAP13 ALSO SHOWING WEAK INSTABILITY...EXPECT ANY
CONVECTION WITH BE ISOLATED AT BEST.

MEANWHILE...SHORTWAVE TROF/VORT MAX OVER THE NRN ROCKIES WILL INDUCE
SFC CYCLOGENESIS IN THE WRN DAKOTAS TUESDAY MORNING WITH SYNOPTIC
SCALE LIFT EXPANDING OVER THE REGION THRU THE DAY AS THE UPPER WAVE
CONTINUES ITS EWD TRACK. MODELS IN AGREEMENT PCPN ACTIVITY WILL
SPREAD THRU THE CWA THRU THE DAY BEFORE EXPANDING OVER A GOOD
PORTION OF MN/IA TUESDAY EVENING. AGAIN...CONDITIONS WILL BE QUITE
FAVORABLE FOR GENEROUS ACCUMULATION AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF A
FEW LOCATIONS RECEIVE AMOUNTS APPROACHING AN INCH.

CONDITIONS DRY AND ON THE COOL SIDE TUESDAY THRU THURSDAY
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 40S NORTHEAST AND MID 50S
SOUTHWEST



.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2015

DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH RELATIVELY CHILLY CONDITIONS FRIDAY
WITH HIGHS ONLY PEAKING OUT IN THE MID 40S BEFORE A WARMING TREND
NEXT WEEKEND WITH UPPER 60S ON SUNDAY.

&&


.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2015

SINCE LOW CLOUDS ARE DECREASING THE MAIN ISSUES WILL BE PCPN
DEVELOPING TONIGHT AT KLNK AND KOMA. PCPN CHANCES WILL BE DELAYED
AT KOFK UNTIL AFTER 12Z KOFK. EXPECT CEILINGS TO DECREASE LATER
TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL RH RETURNS.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...MILLER


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