Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 191824
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1224 PM CST Sun Feb 19 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1208 PM CST Sun Feb 19 2017

Record or near record temperatures are again forecast for today.
The cirrus have been variable enough with the gusty south winds to
push temperatures up into the lower and mid 60s. Despite the
higher dewpoints and a few more clouds, we are running about five
degrees ahead of yesterday.

The latest surface plot and visibile satellite imagery show low
clouds just south of the border toward Manhattan, KS. Although
they will try to push into southern Nebraska this evening, these
should not hinder afternoon conditions too much.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(today through Tuesday)
Issued at 253 AM CST Sun Feb 19 2017

Early morning objective surface analysis indicated the ridge axis
now extended over the mid and upper Mississippi River Valley with
a lee trough developing from eastern CO into WY. This trend is
expected to continue today with southerly winds increasing.
IR satellite imagery this morning indicates some high cloudiness
over the high Plains associated with the potent shortwave trough
over the desert southwest. Some of these high clouds will spill
across the CWA today, but do little to stop the warming. We have
increased highs for today given that temperatures at 925 mb warm
a couple of degrees over Saturday potentially leading to record
or near record highs with upper 60s to lower 70s common.

Forcing for ascent is expected to increase this evening ahead of
the desert southwest shortwave trough. The atmosphere initially is
pretty stable and dry this evening, but continued ascent and
moistening from the south should eventually support some
scattered showers after midnight into Monday morning. Main change
was to delay the onset of the chances, and to generally lower
them as well as it appears that precipitation will be fairly
spotty. We did leave in the mention of isolated thunder in the
south tonight. A very warm start to the day is expected on Monday,
and with decreasing clouds in the afternoon we should see another
very mild day ahead of a surface trough that will cross the CWA,
potentially again supporting record highs. Tuesday still is
shaping up to be the warmest day of the period. With the trough
passage on Monday we will see the 925-850 mb flow become westerly
and temperatures warm. With full sunshine and mixing we should
see highs climb well into the 70s, and we would not be surprised
to see an 80 degree reading at a spot or two.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Saturday)
Issued at 253 AM CST Sun Feb 19 2017

With a shortwave trough zipping through the Dakotas on Tuesday we
will see a weak cold front settle through the CWA on Tuesday
night, but again little in the way of cooling is expected behind
the front with highs on Wednesday again reaching potential
records at KOMA/KLNK.

Wednesday appears to be the end of the current warm streak though
as heights slowly fall into Thursday ahead of a potent system for
the end of the week. Models continue to have significant
differences as to the evolution of this system. The GFS remains
consistent in a more progressive suppressed southward system,
while the GEM/EC continue to indicate a stronger system aloft and
at the surface that is a bit slower and farther north. Confidence
in the eventual evolution is very low currently as many of the
GFS ensembles support the operational GFS. In addition given the
additional height falls moving into the west late in the week a
less amplified solution certainly is possible. Nevertheless
sensible weather wise, it appears that we will see a return to
cooler weather with the potential for some precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1208 PM CST Sun Feb 19 2017

The patchy fog around KLNK quickly lifted this morning and surface
winds have increased to 14 to 20kts and gusty. VFR ceilings will
give way to deteriorating conditions with MVFR/IFR cigs/vsybs this
evening as the low level jet strengthens to 40 to 45kts with
moisture advection northward across the tafs sites. The low clouds
and fog should spread north from KLNK/KOMA around 02Z-04Z to KOFK
around 05Z. Did include drizzle or a chance for a shower at all
three sites after 09z. With the elevated instability there may be
some isolated thunder at koma toward 12Z. This can be added if
needed.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Zapotocny
SHORT TERM...Boustead
LONG TERM...Boustead
AVIATION...Zapotocny


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