Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 141733
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1133 AM CST SUN DEC 14 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CST SUN DEC 14 2014

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS ARE STILL PCPN TYPE AND PCPN AMOUNTS FROM
LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. ICE AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS APPEAR
TO BE ENOUGH FOR A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY OVER PARTS OF NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA...SO WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED ONE.

500 MB CHART FROM 00Z LAST EVENING SHOWED A RIDGE FROM IOWA INTO
MISSOURI...A TROUGH FROM IDAHO INTO ARIZONA AND ANOTHER TROUGH OUT
IN THE PACIFIC ALONG 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE. A BROAD AREA OF
12 HOUR HEIGHT FALLS EXTENDED FROM THE DAKOTAS SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST
INTO ARIZONA...NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS. THERE WERE TWO HEIGHT
FALL CENTERS OF ABOUT 80 METERS. ONE WAS OVER KFGZ AND THE OTHER
WAS OVER KABQ. A JET STREAK OF AROUND 115 KNOTS AT 300 MB WAS
PUNCHING SOUTHEAST FROM NEAR THE CALIFORNIA/NEVADA/ARIZONA BORDER...
SO AT THAT TIME THE SYSTEM WAS STILL DIGGING.

AS OF 09Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWED A FAIRLY STRONG AND COMPACT VORT
MAX LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM NEW MEXICO. THERE WAS SOME LIGHTNING
ACTIVITY EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE FEATURE. MODELS SHOW THAT THIS
WILL BECOME A CLOSED LOW AND LIKELY MOVE TO SOUTHWEST KANSAS BY THIS
EVENING.

SURFACE ANALYSIS AT 09Z SHOWED VERY MILD AND MOIST AIR IN PLACE
OVER THE REGION. A COLD FRONT STRETCHED FROM CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
INTO EASTERN COLORADO. LOW CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE SHOULD PERSIST
TODAY...WITH THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS INCREASING ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS SOME ELEVATED FRONTOGENESIS MAY
ENHANCE PCPN CHANCES A BIT NEAR THE FRONT IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.

FLOW BECOMES DIFFLUENT ALOFT AND THE SYSTEM TAKES ON A NEGATIVE
TILT TONIGHT AS IT CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEAST. HAVE HAD A MENTION
OF THUNDER IN OUR SOUTHERN ZONES AND WILL KEEP THAT GOING FROM
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. POPS ARE 70 PERCENT OR HIGHER
FOR MOST LOCATIONS TONIGHT.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WERE MAINLY FROM 0.50 TO 0.75 INCHES AS
OF EARLY THIS MORNING. THOSE SHOULD INCREASE TO AROUND AN INCH BY
THIS EVENING THEN FALL BACK TONIGHT. PCPN TYPE SHOULD BE LIQUID
THROUGH AT LEAST MIDNIGHT TONIGHT BUT THEN WILL START TO CHANGE IN
THE FAR NORTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA AFTER 4 AM TONIGHT.
MOST SPOTS WILL REMAIN MILD OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE 40S EAST
OF A LINE FROM AROUND ONAWA TO BEATRICE. SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW A
WARM WEDGE ALOFT AROUND 850 MB WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES FALLING
TO NEAR FREEZING BY 12Z MONDAY IN THE WESTERN PARTS OF NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA. THAT WILL LEAD TO AT LEAST A MIX OF PCPN AND PROBABLY A
PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN. MODELS SHOW THIS WARM WEDGE COOLING AND
PCPN CHANGING TO SLEET AND THEN SNOW. COLD AIR WILL SPREAD
EAST/SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY MONDAY...WITH MOST AREAS HAVING
FALLING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE DAY. THOSE TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HEAVIEST PCPN AMOUNTS
SHOULD BE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...THEN AMOUNTS DIMINISH AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES EAST MONDAY NIGHT. IT APPEARS THE MOST LIKELY AREAS
TO SEE 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW IS ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM
ALBION TO HARTINGTON. NORTHEAST NEBRASKA MAY HAVE SOME ICE
ACCUMULATION TOO...THUS THE ADVISORY.

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT SWEEPS
SOUTHEAST MONDAY...THEN CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE SLOWLY
DECREASING TUESDAY. HIGHS TUESDAY SHOULD BE IN THE MID 20S NORTH
AND RANGE TO MID 30S SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CST SUN DEC 14 2014

COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SLOWLY EAST WEDNESDAY WITH MAINLY
DRY BUT COLD CONDITIONS. SNOW APPEARS POSSIBLE FOR AT LEAST PARTS
OF THE AREA FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT AMOUNTS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT FOR NOW. HIGHS FROM THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY LOWER AND MID 30S WITH LOWS IN
THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1126 AM CST SUN DEC 14 2014

MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE. PERIODS
OF DRIZZLE ARE POSSIBLE TODAY/THIS EVENING...WITH RAIN LIKELY TO
REACH SITES LATER THIS EVENING/TONIGHT. VIS SHOULD REMAIN ROUGHLY
IN THE MVFR RANGE TODAY...WITH FLUCTUATIONS UP AND DOWN.
EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE ON
MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR NEZ012-
     017-018-031-032-042.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR NEZ011-
     016-030.

IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...MAYES


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