000
FXUS63 KOAX 122340
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
640 PM CDT WED JUN 12 2013

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KOMA AND KLNK.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU THE FCST PD. GUSTY NW WINDS
AROUND 30KT WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH BY EARLY EVENING AT ALL TAF
SITES. NO SIGNIFICANT CROSSWIND THREAT ANTICIPATED DURING THIS
TIME.

DEE


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 PM CDT WED JUN 12 2013/

DISCUSSION...

PRIMARY FORECAST FOCUS WILL BE ATTEMPTING TO PINPOINT HIGHER
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS WEATHER LIKELY
TURNS ACTIVE AGAIN.

WITH NORTHERN PLAINS CIRCULATION CENTER DROPPING ACROSS LOWER
GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT...UPPER RIDGING WILL SPREAD OVER
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AHEAD OF A WEST COAST LOW. THIS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO DRY OUT REGION INTO THURSDAY BEFORE DEW
POINT/INSTABILITY RECOVERY BEGINS. GFS/NAM CONTINUE TO GENERATE
MOSTLY LIGHT QPF ON THURSDAY AS MODEST ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
BEGINS...BUT INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL JET AXIS WERE WEST OF THE
AREA. ALTHOUGH WE COULD SEE ISOLD LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES HOLDING
TOGETHER OVER PARTS OF THE REGION THURSDAY...OPTED TO DROP PRECIP
MENTION ATTEMPTING TO DRY OUT ONE ADDITIONAL PERIOD. LITTLE/NO
CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES WERE MADE WHICH LOOKED GOOD.

MOISTURE/INSTABILITY INCREASE OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AS A WEAK BOUNDARY PUSHES INTO NWRN ZONES LATE
FRIDAY AS ENERGY AROUND WRN U.S. TROUGH ROTATES INTO MT. THIS
SHOULD BRING A GREATER TSTM THREAT TO THE REGION. AS LOW LEVEL JET
STRENGTHENS OVER AREA THU NIGHT WOULD SUSPECT AN INCREASE
ELEVATED CONVECTION OVER FA...AND SPREAD SOME MID CHC POPS INTO
NRN/NERN ZONES...ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z. SINCE IT SEEMED UNCERTAIN
IF OR HOW LONG ANY ACTIVITY THURSDAY NIGHT WOULD LINGER INTO
FRIDAY DECIDED NOT TO BREAK UP THE FRIDAY PERIOD BASED ON POPS AT
THIS TIME. HOWEVER...DID INCREASE POP CHANCES...GENERALLY
ALONG/NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30 WHERE 12Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF SEEMED TO
PINPOINT. DEBRIS COULD IMPACT TEMPS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...BUT
DID BUMP UP A BIT WRN/SWRN ZONES WHERE SOME SUPPORT AMONG MODELS
WAS NOTED. WITH BOUNDARY...INCREASED INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL
JET OVER AREA LATE FRIDAY...SEVERE THREAT DOES SEEM TO INCREASE
PER SWODY2.

AS ENERGY LIFTS INTO SOUTHERN CANADA...AND CLOSES OFF AN UPPER
LOW...HEIGHTS SHOULD CONTINUE LOWERING OVER CENTRAL PLAINS WITH
SURFACE BOUNDARY SLOWLY SAGGING SOUTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THUS...OVER A LARGER SCALE WOULD EXPECT TO SEE ANY RESULTANT MCS
SET UP SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS DAY SATURDAY AND THEN AGAIN SUNDAY.
HOWEVER...EXACT LOCATION LIKELY HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CONVECTIVE
TRENDS LEADING INTO THAT DAY. THAT SAID...GENERALLY SAGGED THE
HIGHER POPS SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
MAX TEMPS WILL ALSO CONTINUE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON RESIDUAL
CLOUDS/SCT PRECIP...BUT FELT WITH BOUNDARY POSSIBLY SAGGING A BIT
SOUTH SATURDAY THERE WAS ENOUGH CHANCE THAT READINGS WOULD BE
IMPACTED TO KEEP TEMPS ACROSS CNTRL/N BELOW GUIDANCE. SINCE UPPER
HGTS WERE LOWER SATURDAY FELT A SOMEWHAT BETTER CHC OF MORE
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION SAT NIGHT COULD HAVE A BIT MORE SUCCESS IN
CLEANING OUT OF THE AREA SUNDAY BEFORE RESETTING LATER IN THE
DAY. THUS MADE LITTLE/NO CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WHICH
WERE A BIT WARMER THAN SATURDAY MOST AREAS.

NEXT WEEK DOES APPEAR TO DRY OUT SOME AS AREA GETS INTO NWRLY
UPPER FLOW EARLY BEFORE UPPER RIDGE REBUILDS AHEAD OF ANOTHER
UPPER LOW BY MIDWEEK. THUS...POPS WERE DROPPED ALL BUT FAR E
MONDAY AND ALL AREAS MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE SLIGHTS WERE
REINTRODUCED AS WARM/MOIST ADVECTION BEGINS AGAIN AND PATTERN
RESETS.

CHERMOK



&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

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