Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 271157
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
657 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016

NEGATIVELY TILTED AND ELONGATE UPPER TROUGH AXIS CURRENTLY
EXTENDS FROM SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO TO THE
BASE IN THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE/SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS. WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO SPIRAL AROUND THE
SYSTEM THIS MORNING WITH THE SFC LOW AT 08Z LOCATED OVER NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS.

AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA TODAY...THE
COLD CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL TIGHTEN UP AND SHIFT NORTHEAST...SLIGHTLY
BEHIND THE SFC LOW. INGREDIENTS SEEM TO BE COMING TOGETHER FOR
WHAT COULD BE A CLASSIC MINI-SUPERCELL EVENT. THE TRIPLE POINT
BY 18-21Z IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO
SOUTHWEST IOWA. LATEST CAM`S SHOW DEVELOPMENT GENERALLY ALONG AND
EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON AND QUICKLY
SPREAD THIS ACTIVITY NORTHEAST AS BOTH THE UPPER LOW AND SFC LOW
MOVE INTO E/NE EVENING. COOLER AIR...WITH EVEN A FEW HINTS OF 0C
850MB TEMPS...WRAP INTO THIS LOW TONIGHT WITH DEFORMATION BAND
SETTING UP ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. WILL BE A CHILLY WET NIGHT
ACROSS MUCH OF OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES.

UPPER LOW EXITS EAST OF THE CWA THURSDAY AFTERNOON ENDING ANY
REMAINING PCPN CHANCES OVER OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. COLD AIR
ADVECTION CONTINUES TO SETTLE SOUTH AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS DROPS INTO THE AREA. THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING
LOWS COULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 30S IN OUR NORTH TO LOWER 40S
IN OUR SOUTH. WEAK UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FRIDAY AHEAD
OF THE NEXT LARGE UPPER TROUGH WHICH WILL BE ROUNDING THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION AT THAT TIME.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016

PCPN CHANCES INCREASE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST FRIDAY EVENING
AS LARGE SCALE FORCING INCREASES WITH APPROACH OF UPPER LOW. ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE ALSO WILL BE INCREASING IN WAA ZONE ACROSS OUR
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. PCPN CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AND
MUCH OF SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA BY
SUNDAY NIGHT. DRIER CONDITIONS ARE FINALLY ON THE HORIZON FOR MID
TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOMA...KLNK...KOFK THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 648 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016

CONDITIONS WERE GENERALLY IFR AT ALL 3 SITES WITH RA. THE BAND OF
RA WILL LIKELY LIFT NORTH OF THE KOMA/KLNK TAF SITES EARLY THIS
MRNG AND MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY REPLACE THE IFR CIGS. THE RA AND
IFR CONDS ARE LIKELY TO CONT THROUGH THE MRNG AT KOFK. DVLPMNT OF
TSRA ARE POSSIBLE AT KOMA/KOFK FOR A SHORT WINDOW THIS AFTN AND
CHCS APPEAR HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE A TEMPO GROUP. SHRA MAY CONT
INTO OVERNIGHT HOURS AT ALL 3 TAF SITES TONIGHT. GUSTY EAST AND
SOUTHEAST WINDS THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTN WILL BECOME LIGHT LATE
THIS AFTN AND OVERNIGHT AS THE SFC LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE AREA.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KERN
LONG TERM...KERN
AVIATION...BOUSTEAD



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