Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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FXUS63 KOAX 250436
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1136 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1128 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

UPDATED THE FORECAST EARLIER IN THE EVENING TO GO MORE PESSIMISTIC
WITH CLOUD COVER BASED ON LATEST HRRR/RAP MODEL RUNS AND ALSO
11-3.9 IR CLOUD CURVE SHOWING THE STRATUS DECK EXPANDING WEST AND
SOUTH. ALSO ADDED PATCHY 2-5SM FOG OVERNIGHT BUT DID NOT INCLUDE
ANY DRIZZLE. THERE`S ALSO A VERY SMALL CHANCE OF SOME SPRINKLES IN
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...BUT NOT SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO MENTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

SPORADIC PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK REMAIN
THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS.

MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WAS LIFTING NORTHEAST OF EASTERN NEBRASKA THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH LINGERING SHOWERS NOTED ACROSS FAR EASTERN NEBRASKA
AND SOUTHWEST IOWA. A SECOND SHORTWAVE WAS NOTED IN CENTRAL NEBRASKA
MOVING EAST...AND MORE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT WAS OCCURRING AHEAD OF
IT...ALTHOUGH MUCH MORE SPOTTY IN COVERAGE THAN EARLIER RAINS.
MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN MOVING THIS SYSTEM EAST OF OUR AREA
BY MIDNIGHT...WHICH WILL BRING AN END TO PRECIPITATION FOR NOW.
BEHIND THIS WAVE...THERE IS CONFLICTING SIGNALS ON AMOUNT OF
CLEARING WE WILL SEE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. CLEARING BEHIND
WAVE WAS NOTED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOPS WITH SURFACE WINDS TURNING
NORTHWESTERLY. SEE NO REASON THIS TREND SHOULD NOT CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING. HOWEVER BY LATE THIS EVENING...ANOTHER PIECE OF MID LEVEL
ENERGY WILL EJECT INTO THE PLAINS AND INDUCE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW
ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS
SHOULD DRAW LOW CLOUDS AND MOISTURE BACK TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST
LATER TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO DRIVE A COLD FRONT THROUGH
NEBRASKA BEGINNING LATER TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. SO IF WE SEE SOME
CLEARING THIS EVENING...WOULD EXPECT IT TO BE RELATIVELY SHORT-
LIVED.

OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION COMES WEDNESDAY WITH COLD FRONT
AND SHORTWAVE. DECENT OVERRUNNING SITUATION SETS UP BY THE AFTERNOON
AS SHORTWAVE ELONGATES NORTH OF FRONTAL ZONE. MODELS ARE CONSISTENT
AGAIN IN DEVELOPING PRECIPITATION OVER AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
OUR CWA BEFORE MOVING OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST IN THE EVENING. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS IN THE AFTERNOON SUGGEST RAIN WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY
PRECIP TYPE AS WARMER AIR NEAR THE SURFACE MELTS ANY SNOW. HOWEVER A
MIX OR CHANGE TO LIGHT SNOW IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE ON NORTHERN
FRINGE...BUT THAT SHOULD NOT LAST LONG AND ACCUMULATION IS NOT
EXPECTED.

COOLER AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...AND REMAINS IN PLACE INTO FRIDAY. HAVE LOWS IN THE 20S
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHTS...WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S BOTH THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.

PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS WELL. A FAST-
MOVING SHORTWAVE DROPPING THROUGH WESTERN NEBRASKA WILL BRING
SHOWERS TO CENTRAL NEBRASKA THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND WILL LIKELY
SKIRT PARTS OF NORTHEAST AND SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA. THEN YET ANOTHER
WAVE SLIDES THROUGH EASTERN NEBRASKA ON FRIDAY...AND WILL BRING AT
LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS TO MUCH OF THE CWA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS WITH
EACH OF THESE PRECIP EVENTS SHOW LOWER ATMOSPHERE TO BE WARM...BUT
DEPTH OF WARM LAYER IS IN QUESTION. THUS SOME MIX WITH OR CHANGE
TO SNOW IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE AT ANY TIME...BUT WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 30S OR 40S AT THE
TIME...ACCUMULATION CHANCES ARE SLIM.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

AFTER LINGERING RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW CHANCES END FRIDAY EVENING...A
MAINLY DRY PERIOD WITH A WARMING TREND IS SETTING UP FOR THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BRING RAIN AS CLOSE AS EASTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA...BUT SOUTHWARD EXTENT STILL LOOKS TO REMAIN JUST TO
OUR NORTH.

OTHERWISE MID LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL TRANSITION FROM NORTHWESTERLY
TO WESTERLY ACROSS THE PLAINS AS DEEP EASTERN TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT
OFF THE EAST COAST AND WESTERN RIDGE FLATTENS. WHILE WEAK RIPPLES IN
THIS WESTERLY FLOW COULD TRIGGER SCATTERED PRECIP AT SOME
POINT...THE BULK OF SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL REMAIN DRY. AND
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO GAIN A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY...RISING FROM THE
50S SATURDAY INTO THE LOWER 70S BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1128 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

LIFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT KOFK UNTIL THE LOW CLOUDS SCATTER
OUT BY 09-10Z. IFR CONDITIONS KLNK/KOMA UNTIL THE CLEARING LINE
MOVES BY 14-15Z. THERE`S ALSO A SMALL CHANCE THAT CONDITIONS COULD
DROP TO LIFR AT THESE TWO LOCATIONS AS OTHER NEARBY LOCATIONS ARE
ALREADY BELOW 500 FEET. THE CLEARING WILL BE COINCIDENT WITH A
COLD FRONT THAT SWEEPS INTO THE AREA. AN HOUR OR TWO BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT...NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO 13 TO 25 KNOTS
AND LINGER FOR MOST OF THE DAY...TAPERING OFF BY 23-00Z. COULD
ALSO BE SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS AT KLNK 16-22Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DEWALD
SHORT TERM...DERGAN
LONG TERM...DERGAN
AVIATION...DEWALD



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