Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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FXUS63 KOAX 131957

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
257 PM CDT Thu Jul 13 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT Thu Jul 13 2017

A few lingering showers were still moving through southeast NE and
southwest IA this afternoon. These should clear the area by 00Z.
There is still a weak trough across the western High Plains that
could still bring some isolated convection to the KS/NE border
tonight, but the bulk of the QPF should be south of our forecast
area as depicted by HRRR/RAP/Highres ARW/NMM.

Thereafter through the remainder of the short term, quiet and dry
weather is expected with an upper ridge building back into the
area. A weak front tries to move into the area on Sunday, but
essentially washes out or moves back to the north by Monday.

High temperatures Friday in the mid to upper 80s, then back into
the upper 80s to lower 90s for Saturday and Sunday. Afternoon heat
index values in the 90s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Thursday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT Thu Jul 13 2017

Upper ridge remains in place for the early part of the week. The
GFS tries to push a weak system around the periphery of the ridge
Monday night, but the ECMWF keeps precip just north of the area.
GFS has a pretty substantial area of thunderstorms to our north
Tuesday night, with far northern CWA just on the edge, with areas
to the south likely remaining capped. ECMWF has this convection
even further north and it wouldn`t be a concern. Similar
conditions for Wednesday night, the GFS allows a front to settle
into the area as the ridge flattens a bit, while the ECMWF keeps
things further north. Thus, there is a consistent model
discrepancy in the extended forecast, and overall, confidence is
pretty low on expected outcome. Highs in the low to mid 90s
through the period. Heat index values around 100 both afternoons
on Tuesday and Wednesday.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1204 PM CDT Thu Jul 13 2017

Current MVFR ceilings near KLNK and KOMA should lift or scatter
out with generally VFR conditions from mid afternoon onward. Low
level moisture could move back in tonight from the northeast, with
MVFR ceilings possible at KOMA and KOFK. Confidence was not high
enough to include more that a SCT low layer at this time.




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