Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 160953
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
353 AM CST Thu Feb 16 2017

.SHORT TERM...(today through Saturday)
Issued at 300 AM CST Thu Feb 16 2017

Near-record to record-setting warmth today.

An upper ridge axis extends from southern California northeast
into central Canada. Unseasonably warm 850mb temperatures remain
under this ridge with forecast afternoon 850mb temps around +14C.
Favorable southwest mixing winds should send afternoon highs on
the run for at or near-record. We have forecast highs at the
record for all three climate sites. (OMA 66, LNK 69, OFK 68)

850mb temps warm a few more degrees into Friday with highs
approaching record levels again in the upper 60s to lower 70s. An
upper level shortwave will move across the High Plains and into
the Northern Plains Friday afternoon sending a cold front into the
forecast area which should enhance mixing even more.

Slightly cooler but still above normal temperatures will continue
into Saturday with surface high pressure moving directly overhead.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 300 AM CST Thu Feb 16 2017

Upper heights will build again over the the Central PLains late in
the weekend as a trough digs across the western US. This comes out
in two pieces with the northern system moving across the northern
Plains and the southern trough closing off over southern Texas.
In advance of the approaching trough, Gulf moisture will draw into
the Plains increasing low level moisture. Strongest forcing will
be to our north across the Northern Plains and to our south in
advance of the closed low. Although our area remains in between
the strongest forcing, we should see a decent chance at showers
and a few isolated thunderstorms.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1120 PM CST Wed Feb 15 2017

LLWS at all TAF sites, with winds around 2000 feet from around
230-260 degrees at 35-40 knots. That should end at KOFK by 07-08z,
and at KLNK/KOMA by 11-12z. Otherwise, VFR conditions prevail.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kern
LONG TERM...Kern
AVIATION...DeWald



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