Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 130516
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1116 PM CST Sun Feb 12 2017

.SHORT TERM...(tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 300 PM CST Sun Feb 12 2017

Benign weather will continue across the forecast area in the
short term with mild days and cold nights as area remains between
northern and southern stream troughs.

Closed upper low over northern Baja this afternoon will begin to
track east into northern Mexico tonight, reaching the southern
Rockies and Texas high plains on Monday. Main impact for the area
with this system will be increasing high clouds for the south
half of the area late tonight and Monday. Cold temperatures likely
tonight with rather low dewpoints and light winds under mainly
clear skies.

Initial northern trough coming across the northern plains on
Monday will help drive the southern storm system further south and
east Monday night and Tuesday as it tracks east across the
southern plains. A second and stronger northern stream trough
coming across the upper midwest on Tuesday will pickup and phase
with the southern system Tuesday night and Wednesday across the
eastern CONUS.

Strong upper ridge develops on the back side of the eastern
trough from the intermountain west into the northern Rockies
Tuesday night and Wednesday and will be poised to move eastward
into the plains region by weeks end bringing with it another
significant warmup for the area.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 300 PM CST Sun Feb 12 2017

A period of well above normal temperatures is expected to prevail
across the area through the weekend.

The western ridge will move east into the north central part of
the country through Friday, followed by another strong trough
moving into the west coast. The western trough will maintain the
warm pattern through the weekend as it begins to work eastward
toward the southern plains. Along with the warm air will come an
increasing chance of thunderstorms across parts of the central
plains on Sunday as the trough approaches from the west.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1115 PM CST Sun Feb 12 2017

Mid and high-level clouds will gradually increase from south to
north across the area overnight into Monday ahead of an upper low
moving across northwest Mexico. In the low levels, a surface high
situated over southeast NE/northeast KS as of 05z will develop
east with winds becoming southwest on Monday. A few higher gusts
are possible from late morning through late afternoon.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Fobert
LONG TERM...Fobert
AVIATION...Mead



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