Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

FXUS63 KOAX 191136

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
636 AM CDT Wed Oct 19 2016

.SHORT TERM...(today through Friday)
Issued at 325 AM CDT Wed Oct 19 2016

Forecast concerns will be coverage of showers today through
Thursday, cloudcover and how it will affect temperatures, then
warming trend for the rest of the week into the weekend.

The 00Z LBF sounding had a pwat of 0.43 and OAX was 0.61. Most of
the moisture was in the h5-h6 layer.  Mid and upper level ascent
is increasing clouds across Nebraska and Iowa. A broad mid- level
trough of low pressure covers all but the southeast third of the
U.S. and is guided by a belt of stronger 50 to 70kt mid level
winds. At the surface, a cold front had advanced southward across
South Dakota and Minnesota with an expansive area of stratus
across the Northern Plains. WSR-88D radar echoes have been
increasing and are mostly aloft except in western Nebraska where
rain is being reported at BFF/AIA/IBM. The trough moves across the
forecast area today with a couple of waves of energy as it moves
through. The cold front pushes into northern Missouri with winds
turning to the north. The hi-res models are in good agreement
that the dry lower levels will inhibit measurable precipitation
except in northeast Nebraska. Forecast soundings show some
elevated cape thus cannot rule out some isolated thunder. Tonight
additional sprinkles/light showers may affect parts of the area
and then Thursday, some energy on the back side of the trough
could produce a few more showers.

The clouds/light precipitation should limit highs near the South
Dakota border with readings in the 50s to lower 60s. Farther
south, some breaks in the overcast are expected and highs in the
mid 60s to lower 70s. There should be some breaks in the clouds
overnight and lows should drop back into the 30s and 40s. The
clouds will fill back in for Thursday with highs in the 50s and

The mid level ridge builds in Thursday night and Friday. Increasing
south winds should usher in highs in the 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 325 AM CDT Wed Oct 19 2016

The mid level ridge remains in place Saturday, Sunday and Monday.
This results in above normal temperatures in the 60s to lower 70s.
Monday night and Tuesday, the ridge breaks down with the
approaching trough and southwest flow aloft brings back the chance
for thunderstorms.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 632 AM CDT Wed Oct 19 2016

VFR conditions are expected through the period. A storm system in
the area will bring BKN-OVC mid and high level clouds to the area
today and tonight, but should be AOA FL060 ft. We will keep all
TAF sites dry for now, but an isolated sprinkle or light shower is
possible early this afternoon at KOFK. Otherwise winds are
expected to be light through the period, generally from the north
or northeast.





SHORT TERM...Zapotocny
LONG TERM...Zapotocny
AVIATION...Boustead is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.