Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 300853
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
353 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM NORTH CENTRAL TO
SOUTHEAST SD WAS MOVING TOWARD NORTHEAST NEB IN THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. SUBJECTIVE 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES UPPER- LEVEL
HIGH CENTERED IN UT WITH A MID-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN US...AND UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN US...WITH
THE PLAINS IN NORTHWEST FLOW. UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK UP TO 110KT
WAS NOSING OUT OF SASK/MB INTO THE DAKOTAS. AT 850MB...8C+
DEWPOINTS WERE FAIRLY ABUNDANT ACROSS THE CONUS...WITH NOTABLY
WARM TEMPERATURES OF 30-35C ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN/INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST AS FAR NORTH AS WESTERN MT/SOUTHERN ID. SURFACE HIGH AT 07Z
WAS CENTERED IN OK...WITH BROAD RIDGING EXTENDING THROUGH KS/NEB.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/STORMS THIS
MORNING...THEN AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT.
WHILE SHORT-TERM MODELS HAVE TENDED TO INDICATE SHOWERS/STORMS IN
SD DISSIPATING BEFORE REACHING NORTHEAST NEB...THE LINE HAS
CONTINUED TO MARCH SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. HAVE INCLUDED
A PRECIP MENTION IN THE NORTHERN CWA THIS MORNING FOR THE
SHOWERS/STORMS...BEFORE DISSIPATING. SHORTWAVE DESCENDING THROUGH
THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS PROGGED TO TRACK THROUGH THE MO RIVER
VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN CENTRAL TO NORTHEASTERN NEB THIS
AFTERNOON. CONVECTION SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT AS IT WORKS ACROSS EASTERN NEB/WESTERN IA. HAVE SPED ITS
EXIT SOMEWHAT...AS SHORTWAVE MOVES RATHER QUICKLY THROUGH THE FAST
NORTHWEST FLOW.

NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME CONTINUES ON WEDNESDAY...AND MODELS ARE NOW
INDICATING ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH RIPPLING THROUGH THE
FLOW...GENERATING SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A STORM NEAR NORTHEAST
NEB/NORTHWEST IA. HAVE ADDED AN AFTERNOON PRECIP MENTION IN THOSE
AREAS. HOWEVER...MORE SUBSTANTIAL TROUGH IS PROGGED TO SLIDE FROM
THE DAKOTAS INTO NEB/IA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY...GENERATING
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT MAY LINGER WELL
INTO FRIDAY AS LOW DIGS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK
WEEK...WITH COOL EASTERLY SURFACE TO MID-LEVEL WIND
COMPONENT...PERIODS OF CLOUDS AND RAIN...AND CONTINUED NORTHWEST
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

SHOWERS/STORMS FINALLY SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING/FRIDAY
NIGHT...PROVIDING AT LEAST A BRIEF BREAK IN PRECIP CHANCES AS WELL
AS TEMPERATURES WARMING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NEXT MORE SUBSTANTIAL
CHANCES APPEAR ON SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY AS ANOTHER TROUGH DIGGING
INTO THE GREAT LAKES DRAGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA...BRINGING
CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS AS THE BOUNDARY SETTLES SOUTHWARD.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
PATCHY MVFR VSBY IN HAZE POSSIBLE AT TIMES THROUGH 18Z AS THICK
SMOKE LAYER HANGS OVER THE AREA ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS. SOME
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 00Z MAINLY ALONG THE
EASTERN NEBRASKA BORDER INTO WESTERN IOWA AS SHORT WAVE DROPS INTO
THE REGION.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MAYES
LONG TERM...MAYES
AVIATION...FOBERT



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