Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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FXUS63 KOAX 200846

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
346 AM CDT Thu Oct 20 2016

.SHORT TERM...(today through Saturday)
Issued at 320 AM CDT Thu Oct 20 2016

Forecast concerns today will be showers/sprinkles ending, clouds
today and Friday along with temperatures, then warmer weather
for the weekend.

At 06Z...two h7 waves were over eastern Nebraska and
the second over west central Nebraska. Ahead of each of these H7
wind shifts were a band of showers and isolated thunderstorms in
southeast Nebraska. The Hi-res ARW/NMM picked up on this first
area yesterday (although not strong enough) and the HRRR was
catching on to the trend of increasing coverage as well.

The first band of showers/trailing sprinkles will generally be
moving southeast of the forecast area around 12Z or so; the start
of forecast period, while the second area has progressed into
central Nebraska. During the morning the progs weaken this lagging
energy in the northwest flow aloft. The GFS/Hi-res ARW/NMM limp
the precip toward Antelope county before dissipating it. Will
leave in some low pops/sprinkles/drizzle toward Neligh and adjust
as needed per latest WSR-88D/model trends. Low clouds are expected
to remain over parts of northeast Nebraska into early afternoon
with mid clouds for parts of the rest of the cwa. The OMA forecast
soundings are moist this morning through 09z...then dry out...then
moisten up again this afternoon and again Friday within the strong
warm air advection regime. Much cooler today with highs in the 50s
to lower 60s.

Cooler temperatures for tonight as the surface high pressure
system settles southward. Lows are forecast in the 30s. The
growing season has ended with most areas experiencing a freeze
earlier this month, no frost/freeze headlines are done for the

Mid level ridging increases with thickening clouds Friday in an
area of h7 warm air advection. A wave tops the ridge across the
Dakotas into the Upper Mississippi Valley. Precipitation should be
well to our northeast where the better vertical motion is although
there could be some virga with the waa clouds. H85 temperatures
start out at 4-6deg C. and by 00Z warm to 8 to 10deg C. Forecast
soundings show better mixing in the western part of the forecast
area where highs should range from 65 to 70 toward OFK/LNK/OLU and
farther east into western Iowa, readings should top out 60 to 65.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 320 AM CDT Thu Oct 20 2016

The mid tropospheric ridge is over the Central Plains through the
weekend although a shortwave tracking across southern Canada into
the northern states does dampen it and drag a front through
Sunday. Increased winds behind the front Sunday.  Above normal
temperatures and dry conditions are forecast through the weekend
with highs in the 60s and 70s.

Once that shortwave progresses to the Great Lakes, the
ridge re-builds for Monday. Monday night into Tuesday unsettled
weather begins to return to parts of the Plains with some isolated
showers and thunderstorms. The GFS is stronger with the shortwave
Tuesday that breaks down the ridge compare to the EC, however by
Tuesday night they are in better agreement with the thunderstorm
activity from the Missouri River into Iowa. High remain above
normal Monday through Wednesday with highs in the 60s and 70s.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1055 PM CDT Wed Oct 19 2016

A line of showers will bring a brief and very light shower to
KOMA, with a more moderate shower at KLNK, into the first hour or
so of the TAF cycle. Guidance suggests that showers further west
will dissipate before reaching eastern NE, and will thus limit
shower mention to just this line in the early hours. Otherwise,
mid-level ceilings are likely through the rest of the night, with
potential for a couple of hours of restricted visibility at KOFK
if they can clear out. Have kept KOMA/KLNK unrestricted, expecting
longer-lasting cloud cover, but they could also dip visibility if
they have a few hours of clearing. VFR conditions will follow from
the morning onward, with light north winds.




SHORT TERM...Zapotocny
LONG TERM...Zapotocny
AVIATION...Mayes is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.