Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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034
FXUS63 KOAX 260837
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
337 AM CDT FRI AUG 26 2016

.SHORT TERM...(today through Sunday)
Issued at 337 AM CDT FRI AUG 26 2016

A couple of shortwave troughs will impact the area over the next
24 hours. The 00Z upper air analysis indicated that these were
located over southern NM and southern UT. Broad low to mid
tropospheric warm-air advection ahead of these systems this
morning, over a stalled frontal boundary in the southern Plains,
was leading to a band of showers and thunderstorms from OK into
KS. Short term models are in good agreement that this area of
activity will continue to lift to the north this morning as the
850 mb warm front moves into the southern CWA. We will likely see
a decrease in this activity by late morning though as the low-
level jet begins to weaken and back with time. The break in
precipitation will likely be short-lived however as forcing for
ascent associated with the NM shortwave trough moves into the
central Plains and we see destabilization over eastern KS into
northern MO. This may lead to additional scattered showers and
thunderstorms that may clip southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa
into the evening hours. Additional showers and thunderstorms are
expected to develop from western Nebraska into western KS
associated with the UT shortwave. We may see some this activity
move into the CWA toward the late evening, or additional showers
and thunderstorms develop ahead of this activity in the area as
the main forcing moves through.

Most if not all the precipitation should be over by Saturday
morning, but confidence in the forecast through the weekend is low
as models diverge. Although there appears to be a lack of
significant weather systems to affect the region, we will have a
moist and potentially unstable airmass over the region that will
not be strongly capped. Thus there is some potential for isolated
afternoon pop up showers, or some nocturnal activity associated
with the low-level jet. We have removed pops from Saturday as we
feel that after the rain moves east tonight that any redevelopment
on Saturday would be east or south of our area, but we did leave
some pops in for Sunday.

Today should be the coolest day of the next 3 with a good deal of
clouds around, and potentially some morning precip in the south.
We should see a warming trend into the lower 80s for Saturday and
mid and upper 80s for Sunday.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Thursday)
Issued at 337 AM CDT FRI AUG 26 2016

Longer range models are fairly consistent in the next front,
although weak, will work toward the area on Monday associated with
a weak upper level system moving through the northern Plains. We
will continue to include some rain chances with this front, but
then the theme through the rest of the extended should be
increasing heights and warmer temperatures. Most models agree that
we should see 500 mb heights above 590 dm and this will likely
lead to highs in the mid and upper 80s through the period with
limited chances for showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS for KOFK...KLNK and KOMA.)
Issued at 1153 PM CDT THU AUG 25 2016

VFR conditions initially, with shower chances increasing at
KLNK/KOMA by 18-21z, then about a 3-5 hour chance for
thunderstorms 20-02z. Just shower chances at KOFK by 21z and
beyond if at all. Cloud bases eventually thicken to 8000-10000
feet through midday, and eventually to MVFR by 00z and beyond
toward the end of the TAF period.


&&

.OAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$



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