Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 230910
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
410 AM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 1252 AM CDT Mon May 23 2016

8Z subjective surface analysis indicates a cold front situated
along a line from KONL to KEAR to KHYS. Temperatures were quite
mild with many places reporting around 70 degrees, nearly 15
degrees above normal. A line of showers and thunderstorms have
migrated into northeast Nebraska but are losing their surface
based characteristics virtually ruling out any severe weather
threat early this morning. Expect this line of showers and
thunderstorms to continue to diminish this morning as it waddles
east.

Aloft broad southwesterly flow was noted ahead of an upper level
western conus trough. This trough, as it shifts east, will be a
major weather maker for our area by the end of the work week and
looks to dominate our weather into the weekend.

New precipitation development is expected later this morning and
into the afternoon ahead of a weak shortwave progged to pass
through this evening. Overall severe weather parameters aren`t
great, but can`t rule out stronger storms as the atmosphere
destabilizes this afternoon. The severe weather threat continues
into Tuesday as a more prominent shortwave moves through. For
Tuesday it`ll be a question of timing and if the shortwave timing
coincides with peak heating, which could very well place the
better severe weather threat further west towards Hastings and
Kearney. On Wednesday we should see a break, albeit a short one,
in the precipitation chances as the boundary layer dries out.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 1252 AM CDT Mon May 23 2016

An unsettled weather pattern is expected through this period as
broad southwesterly mid-level flow dominates ahead of the main
system by Friday.

To start Wednesday evening some low-level drying continues from
earlier in the day allowing for a continued break in
precipitation. By late in the evening the first of a couple of
shortwaves propagate through, potentially bringing a return of
precipitation as well. Guidance differs a bit on the location and
track of these features. Overall confidence in Wednesday night
precipitation isn`t very high as a result.

Thursday evening marks the beginning of the period where we could
see the best heavy rain potential. Recent guidance suggests areas
along the Nebraska/Kansas border and into southwest Iowa will be
under the gun for the heaviest rain. Model predicted precipitable
water, which tends to be overestimated, is around 1.6 inches in
these areas Thursday night. If this were to verify it would be a
near record value based on past data collected at the Omaha NWS
office. Thursday night will need to be watched for a potential
flash flood watch, especially given some rain, possibly heavy,
will have fallen in the days prior.

By late Friday morning the heavy rain pushes east into central
and eastern Iowa as the main upper low traverses the forecast
area. As this and the corresponding surface low track through the
central Plains, the chance for severe weather on Friday seems
increasingly likely. At the moment the better potential would be
south into Kansas, but our area will need to be monitored.
Thereafter remnant southwesterly flow along with modest available
moisture will allow for precipitation chances through Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS for KOMA...KLNK...KOFK through 06Z Tuesday)
Issued at 1135 PM CDT Sun May 22 2016

Conditions are expected to deteriorate through 09z as line of
storms over central Nebraska moves east in advance of a cold
front. MVFR cigs and vsbys are expected with the storms as they move
into the area with cigs remaining MVFR into the morning through
about 16z. Short range models stall front over eastern Nebraska
after 16z so improvement in conditions may be slow in coming with
potential for additional storms especially for KLNK and KOMA after
21Z.


&&

.OAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Pearson
LONG TERM...Pearson
AVIATION...Fobert



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