Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 231934
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
234 PM CDT SUN AUG 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT SUN AUG 23 2015

VERY QUIET LATE AUGUST PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
OF THE FORECAST. EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES
THAT THE UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS NOW SPINNING OVER
THE ARROWHEAD OF MN. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDED
FROM THE HIGH PLAINS OF SW SD INTO WRN KS. THIS SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
WILL BE DEVELOPING SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER THE SHORT TERM...CROSSING
THE CWA DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY WITH RETURN FLOW STARTING ON
TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND DRY AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT AND ON MONDAY NIGHT WE SHOULD SEE TEMPS FALL INTO
THE 40S IN MANY LOCATIONS. THE COLDEST READINGS WILL BE IN THE
WEST TONIGHT AND THE EAST ON MONDAY NIGHT WHERE THE WINDS WILL BE
THE WEAKEST. MIXING TO AROUND H85 ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...WHICH SHOULD YIELD HIGHS IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80 WITH A
BIT WARMER WEATHER EXPECTED ON WED WITH THE RETURN FLOW BUT STILL
BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT SUN AUG 23 2015

MOST OF THE SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL OCCUR IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF
THE FORECAST. LONGER RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE
WESTERN US RIDGE AMPLIFYING TOWARD MID TO LATE WEEK. A SHORT-WAVE
TROUGH TOPPING THE RIDGE WILL START TO DIVE INTO THE REGION ON
THU BRINING THE NEXT CHC OF RAIN TO THE REGION. WE WILL CONTINUE
WITH POPS STARTING ON WED NIGHT...BUT WE HAVE THE HIGHEST
POPS...JUST SHY OF LIKELY...DURING THE NIGHT ON THU WITH DRIER
WEATHER RETURNING FOR NEXT WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1145 AM CDT SUN AUG 23 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL DROP OFF TO LESS THAN 6 KNOTS IN THE EVENING AS SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS BUILDS IN. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT BUT CHANCES
TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS TIME.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOUSTEAD
LONG TERM...BOUSTEAD
AVIATION...MILLER


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