Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 162017
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
317 PM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 305 PM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017

...Dry and Mild Weather This Week...

As expected...lows this morning were quite variable from 29
degrees at Columbus to 39-41 degrees at Omaha/Omaha NWS and
Council Bluffs Iowa. Offutt AFB did reach 32 degrees, while other
spots in Sarpy, Douglas...and Lancaster Counties were in the mid
30s.

A few cirrus have been on the increase today as a weak shortwave
drops southeast across the Central Plains in northwest flow
aloft. Another shortwave in the flow follows in behind tonight.
Both weather systems move through dry, however southwest winds
tonight do try to advect a little moisture northeast ahead of the
front and low temperatures are held to the 40s.

South flow prevails with the h85 thermal ridge across the forecast
area for Tuesday. With a mild start...high will top out in the
70s. Another dry frontal passage for Wednesday with highs in the
70s. The EC has a little more moisture pooled near the front...so
may need to boost clouds there.

Surface high pressure builds in for Thursday morning...so will
trend toward the lower temperature guidance. South flow quickly
returns ahead of the h5 trough developing over Colorado/Arizona.
This could bring in more clouds and should again boost highs in
the 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Monday)
Issued at 305 PM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017

Unsettled weather approaches Friday with increasing clouds and
maybe a spotty shower. South winds should be on the brisk side.
Scattered shower/thunderstorm chances develop Friday night with
better coverage Saturday along the cold front. The cold front
exits the area sometime between Saturday night into Sunday
morning. The GFS is a little faster while the EC is a little
slower.

Still highs in the 70s Friday...70s with a few 60s Saturday and
cooler highs in the 60s Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1213 PM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF cycle, with clear
skies and unrestricted visibility. South to southwest winds this
afternoon will be in the 10-15kt range at all sites, falling below
10kt after sunset. Low-level wind shear is possible later tonight,
mainly at KOMA/KLNK. Winds will remain out of the south to
southwest and under 10kt through midday Tuesday.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Zapotocny
LONG TERM...Zapotocny
AVIATION...Mayes


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