Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 251746
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1246 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT THU JUN 25 2015

PRIMARY CONVECTIVE COMPLEX EARLY THIS MORNING WAS LOCATED JUST
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AT 07Z AND DRIFTING SLOWLY SOUTHEAST
WITH TIME. MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH STALLED SURFACE BOUNDARY NEAR
THE SOUTHERN BORDER AND STRONG SHORT WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.

A WARM FRONT STRETCHED FROM LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS INTO
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA THEN CURVED TOWARD NORTHEAST
MISSOURI EARLY THIS MORNING. SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE THE BOUNDARY
SINKING SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE MORNING AS IOWA COMPLEX MOVES TO
THE SOUTHEAST...THEN OVER NORTHEAST KANSAS AND NORTHERN MISSOURI
BY THE AFTERNOON WHERE IT BECOMES QUASI STATIONARY.

EXPECT TO SEE AN INCREASING CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE AREA
LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE SHORT WAVE
ENERGY COMES INTO THE AREA AND INTERACTS WITH OVERRUNNING MOISTURE
NEAR THE SOUTHEAST BORDER. HEAVY RAIN LOOKS LIKELY FOR THIS EVENING
IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA WHERE 00Z MODELS PLACE
AXIS OF HIGHEST PRECIPITABLE WATER. PLAN TO ISSUE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH FOR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA COUNTIES AND PART OF SOUTHWEST CORNER
OF IOWA FOR TONIGHT.

LOOKS SOMEWHAT DRIER FOR THE AREA AFTER TONIGHT AS RIDGE BUILDS IN
THE WEST. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AT TIMES OVER THE
WEEKEND MAINLY IN EASTERN AREAS DEPENDING ON TRACK OF WEAK SHORT
WAVES COMING THROUGH THE FLOW.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT THU JUN 25 2015

AREA LOOKS TO REMAIN UNDER NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DURING
THE PERIOD WITH SOME FLATTENING OF THE WESTERN RIDGE INDICATED BY
LATE IN THE PERIOD. SHOULD RESULT IN SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WITH
OFF AND ON CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2015

LATEST OBS INDICATE VFR CONDITIONS OVER NERN NEB WITH MVFR CIGS
PREVAILING OVER SERN NEB. VSBY SATL TRENDS OVER THE LAST COUPLE
HOURS SHOWING GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
UNDERWAY...AND EXPECT BOTH KOMA/KLNK TO GO VFR WITHIN THE NEXT
HOUR OR SO. LATER TONIGHT...EXPECT TSRA REDEVELOPMENT OVER ERN NEB
ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING UPPER DISTURBANCE AND STALLED SFC FRONT.
THUS HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO GROUPS AT ALL TAF SITES IN ANTICIPATION
OF THIS. IN ADDITION...THE POTENTIAL FOR +RA IS RELATIVELY HIGH
MAINLY AT KLNK LATE THIS EVENING WHERE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS
CURRENTLY IN EFFECT TONIGHT.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY
     MORNING FOR NEZ066-068-078-088>093.

IA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY
     MORNING FOR IAZ090-091.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...DEE


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