Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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258
FXUS63 KOAX 141110
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
610 AM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 320 AM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017

The primary forecast concerns in this period are the chance for
showers and thunderstorms today into the evening, winds this
evening and tonight, then potential for frost - mainly for Sunday
night.

Generally strong upper level winds continue punching south across
western Canada into the Pacific Northwest, and there were also
winds in excess of 100 knots from UT/CO/WY northeast into Ontario
Canada. We will get some lift from the right entrance region of
the second jetstreak today, and there is also some fairly strong
mid level frontogenesis. Trough at 500 mb last evening stretched
from western MT into eastern OR. 700 mb thermal gradient was
moderately strong from the central Rockies to the western Great
Lakes. 850 mb moisture had increased somewhat with dewpoints in
the teens C from TX into eastern KS, much of MO and southeast IA.

Water vapor loop early this morning showed that the 500 mb trough
mentioned earlier had progressed a little to the east and a vort
max was moving toward western WY. Radar looped indicated that
showers and thunderstorms developed fairly fast to our west and
were spreading into the area. These should be most widespread over
the southern half of the forecast area into mid morning. Recent
runs of the available convection allowing models (CAMs) have not
done a great job, but in general suggest this activity will mostly
move east of the area by around mid morning. Question then becomes
will it just be cloudy with some drizzle, or will there still be
some areas of light rain/rain showers around the area. Forecast
soundings indicate some elevated instability still in place, with
parcels originating around 6000 ft AGL. The 00z runs of the NAM
and GFS were also not quite as aggressive with precipitation after
about mid morning for parts of the area (compared to yesterday)
but were still wetter than most of the CAMs. So, did make some
adjustments to POPs, but more adjustment is likely to be needed
through the day. Raised highs just slightly for some areas, mainly
south of the Platte River.

Precipitation chances will generally be on the downturn this
evening, but some wrap around moisture could keep some showers
going in our northern zones (associated with a deformation zone).
Winds will turn to the west this afternoon as the main surface low
tracks toward south central IA. Pressure gradient also tightens
and winds will increase. Did not go with a wind advisory at this
point for tonight, but it may be needed at some point.

Otherwise look for lows tonight to drop into the mid or upper 30s
in northeast NE and mainly upper 30s to mid 40s elsewhere in the
local area. Sunday will be sunny but on the cool side with highs
in the upper 50s and lower 60s. That sets us up for a cool night
Sunday night. No headlines at this point, but some of the area
that did not see a freeze earlier in the week may have frost. More
on that in later forecasts. Southerly winds Monday should help
boost highs back to the upper 60s and lower 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Friday)
Issued at 320 AM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017

Most of the upcoming week looks dry, with seasonable temperatures.
Look for highs mainly in the 70s. Lows should be in the 40s Monday
night but then mid 40s to mid 50s the rest of the week. A mid
level trough will be digging over the western United States by
Friday, which could set us up for rain chances again by Saturday
night or Sunday of next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 610 AM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017

Mainly IFR conditions are expected for KOFK and KLNK into the
mid afternoon, with improving conditions after that. It will
likely remain IFR at KOMA much of the daylight hours with
potential for -SHRA or -DZ. Highest chances for TSRA will be
south of KOMA and KLNK but will include some mention of thunder at
least early this morning. Conditions will improve as a strong
cold front moves in with gusty northwest winds late this afternoon
and evening.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Miller
LONG TERM...Miller
AVIATION...Miller



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