Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 230925
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
325 AM CST MON FEB 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CST MON FEB 23 2015

THE CHANCE OF SNOW DEVELOPING TUESDAY NIGHT THEN CONTINUING BEYOND
THE WEDNESDAY PERIOD...AND SNOW AMOUNTS WILL PROVIDE THE MAIN
FORECAST CHALLENGES IN THE SHORT TERM.

A STRONG RIDGE AT 500 MB REMAINED IN PLACE FROM OFF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST UP INTO THE YUKON....A CLOSED LOW WAS OVER EASTERN ONTARIO AND
ANOTHER CLOSED LOW WAS OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. STRONG CONFLUENT MID
AND UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WAS IN PLACE FROM NEBRASKA AND KANSAS
INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES. THE CALIFORNIA CLOSED LOW WILL BECOME
AN OPEN WAVE AND TRACK EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT WHILE OUR AREA GENERALLY REMAINS IN WEST OR NORTHWEST
FLOW.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL MOVE EASTWARD AWAY FROM OUR
AREA ALLOWING MODEST SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL WINDS TO INCREASE. WARMING
WILL BE STRONGEST TODAY ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA WHERE TEMPERATURES
MAY REACH THE LOWER AND MID 30S...BUT LOOK FOR HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
20S ELSEWHERE LOCALLY. SOUTHWEST WINDS EARLY TONIGHT WILL TURN TO
THE WEST BUT THIS WILL KEEP OUR AREA MILDER...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN
THE TEENS RATHER THAN SINGLE DIGITS. WINDS TURN TO THE NORTHWEST
FOR TUESDAY...WHICH WILL GIVE US FAIRLY KEEP MIXING AND HIGHS
MOSTLY AROUND 40 TO THE MID 40S.

A FAST MOVING DISTURBANCE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST FROM MONTANA AND THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS TUESDAY NIGHT...LIKELY BRINGING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA BEFORE SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. SNOW SHOULD SPREAD
ACROSS ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY THEN DROP SOUTHWARD INTO
KANSAS AND MISSOURI BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE ALL IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN AND 850-700 MB MIXING
RATIOS FROM 2 TO 3 G/KG...BUT DIFFER ON WHERE FORCING WILL BE THE
STRONGEST AND WHERE THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL FALL. FOR NOW...DID NOT
GO AS HIGH AS THE 00Z NAM AND 00Z GFS SUGGEST FOR AMOUNTS. THE 00Z
ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS KEEP THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOW FARTHER
EAST...AND FOR NOW HAVE TO AT LEAST GIVE SOME WEIGHT TO THOSE
SOLUTIONS. THIS MEANS WE HAVE AMOUNTS MAINLY IN THE 2 TO 3 INCH
RANGE...HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN IOWA AND ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER IN
EASTERN NEBRASKA. LOOK FOR THE LOWEST AMOUNTS...IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH
RANGE...FROM ALBION DOWN TOWARD FAIRBURY.

WE WILL BE ADJUSTING THESE AMOUNTS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL SHIFTS. IF
THE LATEST NAM AND GFS SOLUTIONS WERE TO VERIFY...AMOUNTS WOULD
BE MORE IN THE 2 TO 5 INCH RANGE WITH SOME SMALL POTENTIAL FOR
OVER 5 INCHES. NUMBERS FROM THE 03Z SREF (MEAN SNOWFALL VALUES) ARE
0.5 TO 1.5 INCHES ACROSS OUR AREA. SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS SHOULD BE
AROUND 13 OR 14 TO 1 FOR THIS EVENT BASED ON AVAILABLE PARAMETERS
AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CST MON FEB 23 2015

SNOW WILL BE ENDING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND AN AREA OF COLD HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE MOSTLY SINGLE DIGITS...POSSIBLY AROUND OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO NEAR THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER. COLD AND DRY
CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH FRESH SNOW AND LIGHT WINDS WILL LIKELY DROP TO ZERO OR BELOW.

MODELS SUGGEST THAT A SNOW EVENT WILL OCCUR NEXT WEEKEND. WILL GO
FAIRLY HIGH FOR POPS THAT FAR OUT...MOSTLY FROM 40 TO 50 PERCENT
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH ON MEASURABLE
PCPN...BUT NOT ON EXACT AMOUNTS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND POSSIBLY BEYOND THAT.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1108 PM CST SUN FEB 22 2015

VFR CONDITIONS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE FORECAST THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE SOME MVFR VSBYS IN FOG
COULD OCCUR AROUND 12Z AS LIGHT NORTH WINDS GO CALM. OTHERWISE
EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY BEFORE 18Z AND INCREASE INTO
THE 10 TO 20KT RANGE.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...DERGAN


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