Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 190415
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1115 PM CDT WED MAY 18 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1105 PM CDT Wed May 18 2016

Quiet weather overnight as surface high pressure nudges to the
east. There is a patch of mid clouds in western Nebraska and
these will expand eastward as shortwave trough energy shifts east
and warm air advection increases along with some other patchy
clouds developing. For now, dewpoint depressions seem broad enough
to leave fog out of the zones...but will need to monitor as would
not be surprised to see some in favored fog areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 316 PM CDT Wed May 18 2016

Temperatures are on a warming trend, with enough moisture to allow
for afternoon cu.  Subjective 12z upper air analysis indicates an
upper-level low over the CA/AZ border, with troughing across the
Great Lakes.  Broad 850mb high was in place across the Midwest to
the Plains, with 8C+ dewpoints confined to TX/AR toward the
Southeast.  A corresponding broad surface high was noted across the
Great Lakes/Midwest to the Central Plains, with generally weak
surface flow.

Main forecast concern through Saturday is diurnal cu development,
which some models are interpreting as light showers or sprinkles. So
far, have not really seen those showers manifest.  Given weak or
nonexistant forcing in the area, with next shortwave anticipated to
track across KS-MO on Thursday, believe it will be difficult for
showers to develop.  Have opted to keep mention out until any
possible showers/sprinkles become more evident.  Under persistent
southerly flow at low to mid levels, as well as a developing upper-
level ridge, temperatures will continue to moderate through the next
few days, finally reaching near-normal readings by Saturday.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 316 PM CDT Wed May 18 2016

The long-term period looks both warm and active. Low- to mid-
level southerly flow will continue, allowing temperatures to reach
near- to above-normal readings through the period. By Saturday
night, upper-level ridge will begin to shift slightly eastward,
allowing convection to develop likely around the High Plains.
Think activity on Saturday afternoon/evening into Saturday night
would be likely to stay too far west to affect the CWA, and have
kept forecast dry. As upper=level trough advances toward the
Plains on Sunday, chances shift eastward at least into central
Nebraska, providing a higher chance of showers and thunderstorms
into eastern NE/western IA. Details are too subtle at this time to
delineate severe weather potential with confidence, but current
progs would support the risk mainly being west of the CWA, with
higher chance of thunderstorms into the area Sunday night. There
is another chance on Monday, especially as a front advances into
the region. The pattern remains murky through the rest of the
period, with chances for showers and thunderstorms virtually every
day ahead of main upper-level low.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS for KOMA...KLNK...KOFK through 06Z Friday)
Issued at 1105 PM CDT Wed May 18 2016

VFR conditions are forecast overnight as surface high pressure is
off to the east and a weak shortwave trough approaches from the
west. Will need to watch dewpoint depressions...but for now seemed
wide enough to not mention fog. Mid clouds should be on the
increase thursday. There is a patch in western nebraska and as
warm air advection increases...these should expand. Ceilings
generally fl050-100. Southeast winds mainly 10kts will increase 10
to 20kts Thursday.

&&

.OAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Zapotocny
SHORT TERM...Mayes
LONG TERM...Mayes
AVIATION...Zapotocny



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