Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 132341
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
541 PM CST Wed Dec 13 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 303 PM CST Wed Dec 13 2017

Wind advisory currently in effect, but should be able to cancel a
few counties early with speeds below advisory levels in most areas.

Otherwise, there were a few flurries in southeast ND and
northeast SD in a moist cyclonic flow around the strong low
pressure system near Lake Michigan. ESRL HRRR/HRRR/RAP/Highres
ARW/NMM and Nam models all suggest that these might hold together
and possibly affect northwest/west central IA later this evening
and overnight. Will let the evening shift monitor and add later on
if necessary.

Focus shifting to the next Alberta Clipper that will move down the
Missouri River valley Thursday. Models have slowed down the
arrival of precip in northeast NE by a few hours, and have
adjusted grids accordingly. This could start as snow chances, but
becomes a rain/snow mix as temps warm into the upper 30s to lower
40s, which would significantly limit accumulations. Light snow or
flurries may linger Thursday evening before diminishing by
midnight. Snowfall amounts less than 1/2" at any given location.

Warming continues Friday and Saturday with west southwest surface
flow ahead of the next cold front. Readings both days well above
normal in the 40s and 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 303 PM CST Wed Dec 13 2017

Cooler air behind the cold front combined with approaching troughs
from both the north and south could bring snow and rain chances
to the area Saturday night into early Sunday. Although the forecast
is tilted toward the wetter ECWMF during this time, while the GFS
remains dry. Temperatures remain well above normal in the 40s
through the extended period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 530 PM CST Wed Dec 13 2017

VFR conditions are currently in place at all sites, but a period
of MVFR ceilings is likely at all sites on Thursday, with some
potential KOMA/KOFK will drop to MVFR this evening/tonight. A
period of light rain and/or snow is possible at all sites, with
highest chance at KOFK, a lesser chance at KLNK, and too low of a
chance to mention just yet at KOMA. A brief dip to MVFR visibility
is possible in rain/snow. Northwest winds will relax to around
10kt this evening, then relax further to around 5-10kt on
Thursday.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DeWald
LONG TERM...DeWald
AVIATION...Mayes


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