292
FXUS63 KDDC 211603
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1103 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry frontal passage today

- Pleasant highs Wednesday

- Seasonal temps and weather for the rest of the week

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 222 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024

A cold front will traverse across the state today. There will be
some CAA associated with this fropa. As a result, expect a large
range of highs today with the NW FA peaking into the 70s and the
SE FA in the 80s to around 90F. Unfortunately, this will be a dry
frontal passage. The SE winds will eventually become northwesterly
in the wake of the fropa with magnitudes in the 15 to 30 mph range.
Otherwise, quiet weather is expected today across the FA. For tonight,
a weak mid level wave will move across the northern plains this evening
into Wednesday morning. There could be some weak showers and isolated
thunder in association with this wave mainly and only across the
NW and N zones. Unfortunately, the rest of the FA will remain dry.
Lows tonight will be seasonal with a mix of upper 40s to mid 50s.
For Wednesday, cool and dry high pressure will prevail across southwest
Kansas. The net result is pleasant highs with values in the 70s and
dry conditions continuing. Winds will remain on the light side underneath
the high pressure center.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 222 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024

WAA will strengthen Wednesday. Moderating highs and higher dewpoints
advecting in is expected in association with the next upper level
wave. 700 hPa temperatures and the associated EML is expected to
be fairly strong across southwest Kansas Thursday. As a result, half
of the FA will probably see no storms. The edge of the EML will be
located across central Kansas, and a few thunderstorms may be possible
in the eastern zones. This is assuming the cap actually breaks. Otherwise,
dry and warmer weather is in store Thursday.

On Friday, another fropa is expected across the state. Drier air will
advect in from the north with dewpoints decreasing through the day.
The net result is a dry forecast for much of the FA. There will be
some weak CAA associated with the fropa, however, temperatures still
trend fairly close to normal.

The weekend is looking to be fairly close to seasonal normal with
highs within a several degrees of 80F. If there were to be any storm
chances, it would mainly be confined to the eastern zones.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1100 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024

VFR conditions will prevail in vicinity of all TAF sites through early
Wednesday. Gusty north-northwest winds through late afternoon are
expected to subside somewhat this evening as surface high pressure
slowly approaches from the west.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sugden
LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...JJohnson