213
FXUS64 KHGX 042341
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
641 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 336 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

Light showers occurring over the far northeastern portion of SE
Texas. These are associated with an MCS centered over Louisiana,
and will continue a generally ESE track through the rest of the
day. Winds have generally been 10-20 mph sustained this afternoon
with gusts of 20 to 30 mph have been occurring throughout the day,
and will continue this afternoon. Winds should relax overnight.

We remain under the influence of a mid-level ridge, which will
continue to create hot and humid conditions for Wednesday. Heat
indices are bordering the Heat Advisory criteria for locations
west of I-45 (the same area that is under an Advisory for today),
but will let the midnight crew re-evaluate with the next forecast
package. In any case, heat will continue to be a concern as values
heat indices peak in the 105-109 range for much of the area.
Continue to exercise caution, especially during the hottest time
of the day. Be sure to stay hydrated, avoid strenuous activity,
and look before you lock! Remember that if the ground is too hot
for the palm of your hand, it is too hot for your pets` paws.

In addition to the heat, we do have a Marginal Risk for severe
weather for the entire area. Stronger NW winds aloft will help
drive an MCS from ArkLaTex area SE through east TX and
Louisiana...latest guidance has pushed the main MCS more east our
of our CWA; however, outflow from any storms could help initiate
convection during the afternoon hours. While we will have a pretty
stout cap in place in the morning, the cap begins to erode with
heating. By the afternoon hours the cap should be negligible with
an unstable environment left over. CAPE values will be in excess
of 3000 J/kg for most of the area, and PWAT values will be around
2.0". Hi-res models have not been entirely reliable with MCS type
systems as of late. Current thoughts are that any storms that
develop in SE TX will be driven by mesoscale features, such as
outflow from morning storms or the sea breeze. Main hazards with
any storms will be the potential for damaging winds and hail.

Lows for tonight and Wednesday night will be more on the mild
side with lows in the 70s to around 80 degrees. Onshore flow and
dew points in the 70s will make it feel pretty muggy as well.

Adams/Thompson

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 336 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

Upper level pattern changes to a more northwesterly flow
component as the ridge develops over the Four Corners/southern
Rockies. This pattern will result in low rain/storm chances, but
hot and humid conditions remain with us. Heights will continue to
increase by Thursday, resulting in relatively dry conditions. With
residual low level moisture (PWs at or above 1.8 inches) and the
passage of a weak shortwave and frontal boundary, a few showers
and/or storms cannot be ruled out during the day and evening.
Friday into the weekend will feature dry and hot weather with
highs running close to 90th-97.5 percentile of NAEFS climatology
for this time of year. Have continued with highs generally from
the low to mid 90s.

Southeast TX will be positioned on the eastern periphery of the
mid/upper ridge through the weekend. This could result in multiple
embedded weak shortwaves aloft; hence, slight storm chances
especially during peak daytime heating. Storm chances will be on
the increase early next week as the upper ridge weakens/shifts
westward and several shortwave troughs move through ahead of a
stronger FROPA by Tuesday.

JM

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 634 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

First, the easy part: gusty southerly winds can be expected to
persist deeper into the night than we typically see, with gusts
only falling off late, and sustained winds remaining up closer to
10 kts than 5. Generally VFR now, and VFR should remain until
later tonight, at which point the usual MVFR stratus kicks in.

Now the tricky part: current storms not an issue as they are well
off to the east. Next round will be closer, and will complicate
matters tomorrow for the northern I-45 terminals (UTS, CXO, IAH)
as either the western edge of this line or outflow from it sparks
new storms in the vicinity. Driven by storm-scale factors, there
is little confidence in timing of impacts to these three
terminals, if there will be any at all. Go tentatively with VCTS
from 13-18Z, but this may have to be altered depending on storm
evolution.

Finally, once any possible storms clear out, we return to VFR and
gusty south winds for the bulk of the afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 336 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

Moderate to occasionally strong onshore winds and seas between 4
to 7 ft will continue tonight. Small Craft Advisories and caution
flags remain in effect through early Wednesday. Winds and seas
should gradually weaken/subside after mid-week. Rain and storm
chances will also remain on the low side, with only a few showers
early in the morning.

Persistent onshore flow is resulting in strong rip currents along
all Gulf-facing beaches. This threat will continue through most
of the week. Latest P-ETSS continues to show water levels at or
above 3.0 ft MLLW, suggesting the potential for minor coastal
flooding during times of high tide tonight through early Thursday.

JM

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 336 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

There are currently four River Flood Warnings in effect: three along
the Trinity River and one on the Navasota River. The Navasota River
near Normangee (currently in minor flood stage) crested in moderate
flood stage over the weekend and will continue on a gradual
recession and eventually fall below flood stage around midweek. The
Trinity River near Riverside and near Moss Bluff will remain in
minor flood stage until further notice. The Trinity River near
Liberty is currently rising in minor flood stage and is forecast
to rise to moderate flood stage by Thursday. There isn`t a River
Flood Warning out for the Trinity River near Crockett as of yet,
but the latest forecasts indicate that it will rise into minor
flood stage at the end of the week.

Remember to heed any instructions from your local officials and to
never travel through ANY flooded areas or roadways. TURN AROUND,
DON`T DROWN. Please monitor updated forecasts via the NWS NWPS
webpage (https://water.noaa.gov/) as river flooding continues.

Batiste/JM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  78  93  74  95 /  10  30  10  10
Houston (IAH)  79  94  77  95 /   0  30  20  10
Galveston (GLS)  81  87  81  89 /  10  30  20  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ195>198-210>212-
     226-235.

     High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday morning for TXZ436>439.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Wednesday for GMZ330-350-370.

     Small Craft Should Exercise Caution through Wednesday morning
     for GMZ335-355-375.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Adams
LONG TERM....JM
AVIATION...Luchs
MARINE...JM