Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
979 FXUS64 KFWD 231100 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 600 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024 ...New Aviation, Short Term... .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ Update: A cluster of thunderstorms may impact northern Lamar County over the next couple of hours before exiting to the east. Thunderstorms have also began developing near San Angelo and will shift into our western Central Texas counties later this morning. Expect additional scattered thunderstorm development throughout the day across North Texas and portions of Central Texas. Not everyone will see storms, but the locations that do could be impacted by large hail and damaging wind gusts. An increasing LLJ and backing surface flow may increase the threat for an isolated tornado later this afternoon into this evening. Locally heavy rainfall leading to additional isolated rainfall amounts of 2-3" may reinvigorate flooding issues across portions of the region. Much of North and Central Texas remains in a Flood Watch through this evening. Langfeld Previous Discussion: /Through Thursday Night/ Increasing warm advection associated with a strengthening nocturnal low-level jet will continue to support isolated thunderstorm activity across portions of North and Central Texas overnight with a marginally severe hail threat. This activity should become primarily focused across our northeast zones during the pre-dawn hours which will be in closest proximity to the nose of the low-level jet. Despite widespread convection over the past 12 hours, the environment is not terribly worked over, and pockets of steep lapse rates remain with MUCAPE values exceeding 2000 J/kg across much of the region. After daybreak, additional convective development is expected across western Central Texas in response to lift from a subtle shortwave acting upon robust instability. This should send a round of loosely organized convection east/northeastward through the daytime, likely affecting much of Central Texas and perhaps areas as far north as the I-20 corridor by mid afternoon. Additional development is possible through peak heating to our west/northwest along the dryline, and some of these storms could impact North Texas late in the afternoon and evening. Due to a volatile parameter space, all severe hazards will be possible, with large hail being the primary threat. Additional flooding is likely even with modest rainfall totals as grounds remain saturated from recent exceptional rainfall. With some uncertainty in both coverage and placement of storms, no adjustments were made to the existing Flood Watch, but overall the threat for flooding should be more isolated than Wednesday`s. High-end localized rain amounts tomorrow could be around 2-3", but most areas will see much less than that, and some locations will miss out on rainfall entirely. Most thunderstorm activity should be winding down and exiting the area to the east during the evening with a quieter overnight period to follow. -Stalley && .LONG TERM... /Issued 307 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024/ /Friday Onward/ Zonal flow aloft will be in place on Friday while a shortwave in the Central and Northern Pains helps advance the dryline east into western portions of North and Central Texas. Conditions will be exceptionally humid east of the dryline as dewpoints climb well into the 70s. The resulting heat indices will be around 100 degrees by Friday afternoon as ambient temperatures climb into the upper 80s and lower 90s. Strong flow aloft (around 90kt at 250mb), 50+ knots of effective shear, the presence of the dryline, and a highly unstable airmass will result in isolated to scattered thunderstorm development late Friday afternoon and Friday evening. There will be a decent cap in place, but it is likely that a few cells will overcome it and quickly become severe. Wind profiles support supercell development with large hail the primary concern. Damaging winds and heavy rain/flooding may also occur, while high surface dewpoints and low LCLs could very well support a tornado or two. As far as timing and location: recent CAMs have focused on convective initiation near or just west of the I-35 corridor beginning around peak heating (~4 PM). Storms would then spread east through and east of the I-35 corridor during the late afternoon and early evening hours, eventually dissipating around midnight Friday night. Another oppressive day is in store for Saturday, with the dryline having shifted farther west in response to a shortwave trough lifting northeast through the Four Corners region. More thunderstorm development is expected in the vicinity of the dryline Saturday afternoon, with convective initiation likely somewhere across the Big Country. A stronger cap will be in place on Saturday, which will work against convective development, but a few storms will likely break through and become severe late afternoon into Saturday evening. The best storm chances will be north of the I-20 corridor where the cap will be weakest. The highest severe threat may end up along the Red River area, where the better forcing will occur as the shortwave continues northeast through the Central and Southern Plains. A reprieve from the active weather can be expected on Sunday as subsidence takes over in the wake of the departing shortwave. The highest temperatures of the period will also occur Sunday afternoon as highs range from the lower 90s near Paris to the upper 90s in the western-most zones. SLightly lower dewpoints should help offset the higher temperatures, hopefully keeping heat index values just below 100. A stronger shortwave trough will then swing through the Plains Sunday night, pushing a cold front south through all of the region in time for Memorial Day. Convection will be difficult to attain due to the overnight passage of the front and the cap being exceptionally strong. Will still include some low POPs across the east where a few isolated storms may still occur. The front will otherwise bring some relief in the form of drier air and more seasonable temperatures for the first half of next week. The dryline will eventually come into play again around Wednesday of next week, when more thunderstorms will be possible as the next upper level disturbance passes through. This will begin what appears to be another active period for the second half of next week and the final days of May. 30 && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /12Z TAFs/ MVFR cigs have overspread much of North and Central Texas as of 1030Z. Intermittent IFR cigs around 800-900ft have been observed as well. Cig heights should start to lift later this morning becoming VFR by 16Z-17Z. Thunderstorms have developed near the San Angelo area and will push into our western Central Texas counties later this morning. We will bring VCTS into the D10 TAFs and the KACT TAF starting at 16Z-17Z. It is entirely possible that much of this activity remains scattered enough to limit impacts to the terminals. However, the greatest potential for TSRA impacts at KACT will be this afternoon, and for the D10 terminals, later this afternoon into this evening. Some storms may be severe with primarily a hail and damaging wind threat. The bulk of this activity should exit to the east and southeast by 00Z-01Z. Langfeld && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 87 74 93 73 92 / 50 30 20 20 20 Waco 87 73 91 73 92 / 50 20 20 30 5 Paris 84 69 88 69 88 / 50 50 20 30 10 Denton 85 72 93 71 90 / 50 30 20 20 20 McKinney 85 72 90 72 89 / 50 40 20 30 20 Dallas 88 73 93 73 91 / 50 30 20 30 10 Terrell 86 72 90 72 89 / 40 40 20 30 5 Corsicana 88 74 92 74 92 / 50 30 20 30 5 Temple 89 74 92 73 93 / 40 10 20 30 5 Mineral Wells 86 73 93 70 93 / 50 10 10 10 20 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch through late tonight for TXZ092>095-102>107-117>123- 130>135-141>148-156>161. && $$