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000
FXUS63 KBIS 051020
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
420 AM CST WED MAR 5 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 417 AM CST WED MAR 5 2014

TEMPERATURE IMPACTS FROM CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT SNOW NORTH
TODAY...AND MIXED PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL TONIGHT WILL HIGHLIGHT
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.

AS OF 10 UTC...STRATUS COVERS NEARLY ALL OF NORTH DAKOTA.
MAINTAINED THE MENTION OF FOG ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING WITH
THE EXPANDING LOWER STRATUS DECK BASED UPON SURFACE AND WEBCAM
OBSERVATIONS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. EXPECT THE STRATUS TO HOLD
AHEAD OF THE EASTERN MONTANA WARM FRONT...WITH CLEARING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WEST BEHIND THE FRONT AS WINDS TURN
SOUTHWEST. THUS...SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM
20 TO 30 UNDER THE STRATUS CENTRAL...TO 30 TO 40 ACROSS THE WEST
WITH INSOLATION AND MIXING BEHIND THE FRONT. SNOW IS LIKELY NORTH
TODAY...GENERALLY NORTH OF US HIGHWAY 2...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
RAPIDLY PROPAGATING IMPULSE NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.
ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR LESS ARE EXPECTED.


FOR TONIGHT...THE WARM FRONT OVERTAKES THE REMAINDER OF WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. ASSOCIATED MIXING AND LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION WITH CLOUDY SKIES POINTS TO A MILD NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA
WITH WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE 20S...AND PERHAPS THE LOWER 30S
SOUTHWEST. ANOTHER IMPULSE WILL PROPAGATE NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER AND INTERACT WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO GENERATE ANOTHER
ROUND OF PRECIPITATION TONIGHT...GENERALLY NORTH OF US HIGHWAY 2
AND SOUTH INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. BASED UPON 00 UTC BUFR
SOUNDINGS...TAKING IN ACCOUNT THE WET BULB EFFECT...SNOW IS
FAVORED ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER...WITH PERHAPS SOME
FREEZING DRIZZLE/FREEZING RAIN MIXING IN LATE WITH THE POTENTIAL
LOSS OF ICE IN THE COLUMN. ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY AND INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...SATURATION WARMER THAN -10 C WITH THE
MID LEVELS DEVOID OF ICE CRYSTALS SUGGESTS THE ONLY PRECIPITATION
WILL COME AS FREEZING DRIZZLE. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF
COVERAGE...KEPT THE MENTION PATCHY FOR NOW.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 417 AM CST WED
MAR 5 2014

MAIN HAZARD IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE ON THURSDAY AS SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
BRINGING THE THREAT FOR A WINTRY MIX. LATEST MODELING DATA INDICATE
THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT...BUT SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION OF
SNOW IS POSSIBLE...MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE HIGHWAY TWO
CORRIDOR. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY BRINGING
A COOL DOWN WITH A JUST A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW. FOLLOWING
THIS...THE MUCH ANTICIPATED WARMUP WILL ARRIVE SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD APPROACH 50 ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
SUNDAY. A WEAK CLIPPER IS FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA
ON MONDAY. FOR THIS A LIGHT MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WAS CHOSEN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 417 AM CST WED MAR 5 2014

VFR/MVFR STRATUS WILL HOLD IN PLACE THIS MORNING...BEFORE ERODING
ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEHIND A WARM
FRONT. A STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A
WINTRY MIX OF LIGHT SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE AT KISN AND
KMOT...WITH PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE AT KBIS AND KJMS. MVFR/IFR
STRATUS IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
OUTSIDE OF THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...AYD