Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 062351
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
551 PM CST Tue Dec 6 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 548 PM CST Tue Dec 6 2016

We have extended the blizzard warning through 6 am Wednesday
morning for eastern portions of central ND. this included the
Turtle mountains through the James River Valley. Some cities
include Bottineau...Rugby...Harvey...Carrington and Jamestown.

With some of the heaviest snow accumulations over the northern
James River Valley into the Turtle mountains, and strong winds
expected to continue through the night, we extended the warning
through 6 am Wednesday for the areas mentioned above.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 149 PM CST Tue Dec 6 2016

Continued blizzard conditions through this evening highlight the
short term forecast.

Extended the Blizzard Warning through 02 UTC form Burke county
through Bismarck and Mandan...Fort Yates and Linton and through
06 UTC for points further east into the James River Valley and
the Turtle Mountains area. This extension is based on 0.5km winds
of 40-45 kts continuing for these areas based upon the 17-18 UTC
HRRR well into the evening. Across the far west, the Wind Chill
Advisory remains unchanged through Wednesday morning. As the
Blizzard Warning expires this evening, some counties may need to
be added to the Wind Chill Advisory. As the arctic high builds
into the region on Wednesday, widespread single digit highs are
expected across western and central North Dakota.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 149 PM CST Tue Dec 6 2016

Dangerous wind chills Wednesday through Friday and the potential
for accumulating snow on Saturday highlight the extended forecast.

The 12 UTC global suites are in good agreement on arctic high
pressure across the Northern Plains Wednesday through Friday.
Dangerous wind chills are possible at least during the overnight
and morning hours each day across portions of western and central
North Dakota. Dependent on cloud cover, Thursday night into Friday
morning may be very cold with the arctic high centered over
western and central North Dakota with a large snowpack.
Thereafter, accumulating snow is favored for Saturday across the
area north of a surface low forecast to propagate across the
central plains. The arctic airmass may rebuild across the area
Sunday into next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 548 PM CST Tue Dec 6 2016

Continued LIFR conditions in snow and blowing snow through this
afternoon with wind gusts to 45kts, slowly improving through the
night. Across western North Dakota, slow improvement in LIFR/IFR
conditions through the evening.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Blizzard Warning until 8 PM CST /7 PM MST/ this evening for
NDZ002-010-019>021-034-035-042-045-046.

Wind Chill Advisory until noon CST /11 AM MST/ Wednesday for
NDZ001-009-017-018-031>033-040-041-043-044.

Blizzard Warning until midnight CST tonight for NDZ003-011-047-
050.

Blizzard Warning until 6 AM CST Wednesday for NDZ004-005-012-013-
022-023-025-036-037-048-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
AVIATION...TWH


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