Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 050533
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1233 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1233 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

FORECAST ON TRACK THIS UPDATE. MINOT THE WARM SPOT WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 70S THIS HOUR AS SOUTH-SOUTHWEST/DOWNSLOPING
WINDS OCCUR AND WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. THE LATEST EXPERIMENTAL
HRRR 2M RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND BCCONSMOS BLEND SHOWS MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES THURSDAY BETWEEN 10 AND 15 PERCENT OVER ALL
BUT THE FAR SOUTH CENTRAL AND JAMES RIVER VALLEY. CONCUR WITH THIS
IDEA AND HAVE COLLABORATED THESE THOUGHTS WITH OUR NEIGHBORING
OFFICES. THE STRONGEST WINDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL RESIDE IN
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY AT 16KT...NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANY FIRE
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS DESPITE MINIMUM RH OF AROUND 17 PERCENT IN THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 948 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

ONCE AGAIN...NO REAL CHANGES WERE NEEDED WITH THIS UPDATE. CUMULUS
QUICKLY DWINDLED ONCE THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND ITS STEEP LAPSE RATES
BEGAN TO DECOUPLE FROM THE SURFACE...LEAVING A CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT
SOUTH WINDS AS OF MID EVENING. TEMPERATURE TRENDS OVERNIGHT MAY BE
A BIT OF A CHALLENGE IN LOCALIZED AREAS LIKE MINOT...WHERE HIGHS
TODAY WERE WARMER AND THE SLIGHT DOWNSLOPE WIND TRAJECTORY THAT
AIDED TEMPERATURES TODAY MAY ALSO HOLD THEM UP TONIGHT...BUT THE
GOING FORECAST IS A REASONABLE SOLUTION AT THIS POINT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 705 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE WITH THIS UPDATE. LATE AFTERNOON
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS WEAK CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT IN PARTS
OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL ND...MAINLY AROUND DICKINSON AND IN
THE BOTTINEAU AREA AS OF 0005 UTC. HOWEVER...WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY
VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT OF NOTE TO THIS ACTIVITY GIVEN TEMPERATURE-
DEWPOINT SPREADS OF 40-50 F AT THE SURFACE. THAT IS IN CONTRAST TO
RECENT HRRR SIMULATIONS...WHICH APPEAR MUCH TOO AGGRESSIVE IN
SIMULATING SOME WEAK SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS EVENING. WE HAVE STAYED
THE COURSE WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY WITH READINGS
IN THE UPPER 80S EXPECTED FOR MANY LOCATIONS.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED OVER NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY.
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE EDGING INTO THE REGION THURSDAY LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL FURTHER AID IN PRODUCING VERY
WARM TEMPERATURES DUE TO COMPRESSIONAL WARMING.

A VERY DRY AND WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LIKELY YIELD
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BETWEEN 15 AND 25 PERCENT.
THESE VERY DRY CONDITIONS COULD LEAD TO CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER...THERE IS ONE MAIN ISSUE IN REACHING CRITICAL
CONDITIONS...WIND SPEEDS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT...GENERALLY AROUND 10 MPH OR LESS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY. AT THIS TIME
IT APPEARS MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY. RECENT MODEL RUNS
CONTINUE THE DRY TREND FOR NORTH DAKOTA. EVEN IF A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS DO FORM...A VERY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER WOULD LIKELY EVAPORATE
ANY PRECIPITATION BEFORE IT REACHES THE GROUND.

THIS WEEKEND...A LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION OF
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND SLOWLY PROPAGATE NORTHEAST INTO THE
PLAINS. THIS SETUP IS VERY SIMILAR TO WHAT OCCURRED EARLY LAST
WEEK. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN FURTHER SOUTH...AT LEAST FOR EARLY PORTIONS OF NEXT
WEEK.

MODEL SOLUTIONS VARY WIDELY ON WHAT TO DO WITH THE LOW BY MIDDLE
PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF HAS IT CLOSING OFF OVER NORTH
DAKOTA...WHILE THE GFS HAS THE LOW FURTHER SOUTHEAST AND DEPICTS
MORE OF AN OPEN WAVE.

WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND SOUTHEASTERLY/EASTERLY
FLOW...TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK WILL BE A BIT COOLER WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1233 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

VFR CIGS/VSBYS NEXT 24HR. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR CONTINUES OVERNIGHT AT
KBIS AND KMOT UNTIL 14Z-16Z THURSDAY AS SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS TO
35KT AT 1500FT AGL CAN BE EXPECTED.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...KS


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