Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 280236
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
936 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 934 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

DID INTRODUCE SOME PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE ALONG THE EASTERN PART
OF THE CWA...FOCUSING MAINLY ON THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE
TURTLE MOUNTAINS. 01 UTC RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST FREEZING
DRIZZLE THAT IS CURRENTLY OCCURRING IN THESE AREAS...WILL PERSIST
UNTIL THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. DECIDED TO BASE THE STRATUS AND
FOG FORECAST OFF OF THE 00-01 UTC HRRR RUNS...AS THOUGHTS REMAIN
CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS THINKING THAT PATCHY FOG WILL MAINLY
FORM ALONG AND EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 637 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE FOR TONIGHT WILL BE FOG AND STRATUS. THE 18
UTC NAM...AND 20-22 UTC HRRR AND RAP ITERATIONS ALL FAVOR THE
STRATUS ACROSS THE JAMES AND RED RIVER VALLEYS AS OF 23 UTC TO BUILD
BACK WEST THROUGH ABOUT THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR DURING THE NIGHT.
THIS SEEMS PLAUSIBLE WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH THROUGH MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT. HAVE ALSO INTRODUCED A MENTION OF FOG WITH STRATUS
BUILD DOWN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES WARM FRONT SLIDING THROUGH WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA...WITH TEMPERATURES PUSHING INTO THE 60S BEHIND THE
FRONT. WELL AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT IN MODERATE ISENTROPIC LIFT
OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY PERIODS OF SNOW CONTINUE. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS PLACES RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WITH TROF CUTTING
THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY...BRINGING FAST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO OUR AREA.

FOR TONIGHT...QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS SNOW OVER THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY CONTINUES TO PUSH TO THE EAST AND DISSIPATE. HAVE
ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AS MODELS CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SETTING UP WITH WINDS GOING
LIGHT. STILL SOME CONCERN IF THIS WILL SPREAD FURTHER WEST AND
SOUTH...SO WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS THROUGH THE NIGHT.

ON SATURDAY...RIDGE AXIS PUSHES EAST OVER OUR AREA BEFORE A POTENT
SHORT WAVE AND STRONG COLD FRONT MAKE THEIR APPROACH. EXPECT
WARMING TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH MUCH OF THE WEST
PUSHING INTO THE 60S TO LOW 70S...WHILE COOLER CONDITIONS REMAIN
EAST. WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...STRENGTHENING TOWARDS EVENING AS THE FRONT WORKS IN. SOME
SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE NORTH AND WEST IN THE
AFTERNOON...WITH MODELS ADVERTISING SOME MODEST INSTABILITY
DEVELOPING WHICH MAY LEAD TO A FEW CLAPS OF THUNDER.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

THE LONG TERM WILL FOCUS ON ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW AND ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES.

THE CURRENT 12Z ENSEMBLES AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE PROJECTING
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO DOMINATE THROUGH THE EXTENDED. NUMEROUS
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED...AS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION...THROUGH THE LONG TERM...IS EXPECTED TO
BE RAIN. HOWEVER...CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING FOR WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL AREAS OF THE STATE. CHANCES FOR SNOW BECOME MORE LIKELY
LATER IN THE WEEK.

STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WIND GUSTS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 30 AND 45 MPH.
THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE SOUTHWEST.

MODEL GUIDANCE PROVIDES STRONG SUPPORT ON WARM AIR ADVECTING INTO
THE STATE FROM THE CONUS WEST/SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO NEAR 20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...WITH A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 916 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

IFR CONDITIONS IN STRATUS/FOG/FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL PERSIST AT
KJMS THIS EVENING THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING ON SATURDAY.
STRATUS/FOG ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AS OF 03 UTC WILL CONTINUE
TO BUILD BACK WEST THROUGH THE NIGHT INTO KBIS AND
KMOT...POSSIBLY INTO KISN. A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE STATE FROM WEST TO EAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING. SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING TO 30KTS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...SWITCHING WEST BEHIND THE FRONT. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ZH
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...AC
AVIATION...AYD








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