Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 300435

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1135 PM CDT Mon May 29 2017

Issued at 1135 PM CDT Mon May 29 2017

Previous forecast remains on track. Vivid vorticity center on the
GOES16 upper level water vapor and correctly initialized/captured
by the GFS over southern Manitoba as of 04z/11pm cdt Monday. This
vorticity lobe will rotate south overnight perhaps with a few
sprinkles across the Turtle Mountains. The Foxwarren Manitoba
radar shows showers over Brandon, but weakening as the shortwave
moves closer to our northern border. Otherwise the main impact
will be a reinforcement in clouds across our eastern forecast
area, from Rolla south to Jamestown overnight into Tuesday morning.
Generally clear elsewhere with the frost advisory in the west on
track later tonight into Tuesday morning.

Looking ahead, one more weak shortwave noted over northwestern
Manitoba will dive south Tuesday morning, grazing the Turtle
Mountains and northern James River Valley. Nothing much expected
from this other than some clouds through early afternoon then
clearing taking place behind it. This will be the last shortwave
before an upper ridge takes control with a warming trend through

UPDATE Issued at 934 PM CDT Mon May 29 2017

Numerous impulses rotating around the upper low just north of the
Great Lakes. One of these produced a band of sprinkles or light
showers around the Turtle Mountains this evening, and is currently
dissipating over that area. Another impulse currently over
northern Minnesota will continue to rotate southeast tonight but a
lobe extending northward from that impulse will push southwestward
through northeastern and into central ND tonight into Tuesday
morning. This will keep a small threat of sprinkles or light
showers over the far eastern portions of the forecast area through
Tuesday morning. However, only trace amounts to perhaps a
hundredth or two of rain is anticipated at this time.

Farther west, skies are clear in western ND to partly cloudy
central. However, winds have remained a little higher this
evening than anticipated and temperatures have been slow to fall
in the frost advisory area. Currently temperatures are ranging
from the mid 50s to mid 60s. But as the night progresses, high
pressure over Saskatchewan is expected to build slowly south and
east. This should help relax the gradient, and with dewpoints
currently in the upper 20s and lower 30s, there is still plenty of
time for temperatures to drop into the 30s. Therefore we will
keep the Frost Advisory in effect for the same area. We did bump
up temperatures just a little, but not enough to forego the
Advisory. Updated text products will be sent out shortly.

UPDATE Issued at 839 PM CDT Mon May 29 2017

Sent a quick update to bump up pops over the far north central.
Area of showers from Manitoba dropping almost due south into the
Turtle Mountains area of far eastern Bottineau and Rolette
counties. This is expected to last a couple of hours with may be a
couple hundredths of accumulation tops. There is another area of
showers even farther north that may drop down into this same area
late tonight. Will send out a full update between 9 and 10 PM.

UPDATE Issued at 631 PM CDT Mon May 29 2017

Moderate north to northwest surface and upper level flow continues
around a persistent upper level low over the northern Great Lakes
region into southern Canada.

Winds will diminish this evening, more quickly in the west where
they will become light during the overnight hours. This will lead
to good radiational cooling with clearing skies. No changes
anticipated at this time to the current Frost Advisory.

Over central North Dakota, skies will gradually clear from west to
east, but it will likely remain mostly cloudy over eastern
portions of central ND through the night. Late tonight into early
Tuesday another lobe of vorticity rotating around the upper low
could push cloud shield back farther west toward Minot and
Bismarck with considerable clouds for at least a portion of
Tuesday morning before clearing out in the afternoon.

A few sprinkles may fall this evening central and through the
night over eastern portions of central ND, but no measurable
precipitation is expected.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 306 PM CDT Mon May 29 2017

Frost tonight highlights the short term forecast.

Issued a Frost Advisory for western and far south central North
Dakota for tonight into Tuesday morning. Clear skies, light winds,
a cool start to the evening and dewpoints in the 30s support a
good setup for radiational cooling and the lower edge of the 12
UTC forecast guidance envelope across the west and far south
central. Widespread lows in the lower to mid 30s are expected, if
not a bit cooler, with widespread frost.

Tuesday will be cool under continued cyclonic flow aloft with
highs the 60s. However, winds will be weaker compared to the
weekend, from the northwest at 15-25 mph, as surface high
pressure builds across the region.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 306 PM CDT Mon May 29 2017

A warming trend into Thursday and thunderstorm chances Thursday
night into Saturday highlight the extended forecast.

The 12 UTC global suites are in agreement on cyclonic flow across
the Northern Plains potentially being replaced by shortwave
ridging by Thursday. This would favor a possible warm up with
highs in the 80s forecast for Thursday. There is some signal for
much needed precipitation on Thursday night into Saturday as the
upper level ridge breaks down. However, model spread in upper
level mass fields is high for this period, leading to low
confidence in details at this time.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1135 PM CDT Mon May 29 2017

Main aviation problem will be mvfr cigs developing at KMOT/KJMS
near 12z Tuesday, and continuing through 15z at KMOT, and until
17z at KJMS. KBIS will see a brief period of low vfr cigs Tuesday
morning before clouds decrease early in the afternoon. Otherwise,
SKC at the western terminals through the forecast period. Expect
northwest to northerly winds Tuesday between 10kt and 20kt.


Frost Advisory until 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ Tuesday for NDZ001-002-



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