Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 242002

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
202 PM CST Sat Feb 24 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 202 PM CST Sat Feb 24 2018

Latest water vapor imagery shows two distinct shortwaves, one in
the northern branch and the other within the southern branch. Both
branches/shortwave troughs are more or less in phase with each
other as they shift through the Dakotas this afternoon. The first
shortwave can be seen in north central North Dakota with an area
of enhanced radar reflectivities north of Minot. A more widespread
light snow event continues over far south central/James River
Valley associated with a shortwave trough scooting northeast from
South Dakota. Ellendale earlier reported a half inch of snow on
the ground. Light snow across the far north will taper off by
00z/6PM CST Saturday, while the snow in the James River Valley
will exit by midnight tonight.

Farther upstream into Alberta, Saskatchewan, and northern
Montana, a couple more shortwaves will shift into western/central
North Dakota tonight with pockets of light snow, but nothing
significant. Overnight lows will range between 7F and 13F above.

For Sunday, warm air advection shifts from eastern Montana into
western North Dakota. Expect partly to mostly sunny conditions
and dry, with highs 22F to 32F.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 202 PM CST Sat Feb 24 2018

Overall, a split flow initially gradually consolidates by
midweek. That being said, a potent southern stream upper low
ejects out from the desert southwest Wednesday and into the Ohio
Valley Thursday. The Canadian Model is the only model indicating
some potential for precipitation extending back into the southern
James River Valley Wednesday night into Thursday. And while the
forecast builder hangs onto this idea, it may begin to dwindle as
the GFS/ECMWF indicate dry weather with the precipitation signal
farther east. Otherwise, despite some ripples within the upper
flow pattern during the upcoming week, nothing of any consequence
in terms of precipitation stands out. Temperatures will moderate
with highs in the 30s, just about where we would expect to be for
this time of year. The next chance of potential widespread
precipitation continues to manifest itself in the Saturday through
Sunday timeframe, as both the GFS/ECMWF have a Northern Rockies
trough advertised with precipitation into western/central ND. The
EMC GEFS QPF Plumes advertise this as well. This could become the
main highlight in the extended period.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 202 PM CST Sat Feb 24 2018

Surface low pressure will track across South Dakota today. Light
snow will spread across central and eastern North Dakota Saturday
afternoon impacting KJMS and to a lesser degree KBIS. IFR conditions
will briefly be seen at KBIS 18-21Z...and 21Z-03Z KJMS in snow and
clouds. Otherwise VFR at KDIK and VFR to MVFR KISN-KMOT.




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