Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 041805
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
105 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

ONLY SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. WE CONTINUE
TO DESTABILIZE OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. ML CAPES ARE
CURRENTLY 2000-3000 J/KG ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH
DIMINISHING CIN AND INCREASING LAPSE RATES. LATEST ITERATION OF
THE HRRR SEEMS A LITTLE TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING
OVER NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA AND OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY MID TO
EARLY AFTERNOON. CAM MODELS ARE HOWEVER SHOWING SOME AGREEMENT
WITH CONVECTION OVER NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHERN CANADA
MID TO LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING. WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF SEVERE OVER
THE NORTHWEST MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...AND ACROSS THE NORTH AND
CENTRAL THIS EVENING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 926 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR THE MORNING UPDATE. COLD FRONT FROM
MANITOBA SOUTHWEST THROUGH SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND INTO NORTH
CENTRAL MONTANA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST TODAY. LATEST RAP
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE GREATEST INSTABILITY WILL BE ACROSS
THEN NORTHWEST NORTH CENTRAL LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON...WITH LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE DIMINISHING MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. 12Z NAM KEEPS ENOUGH OF A CAP OVER THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON TO INHIBIT CONVECTION. WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING THIS
EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES IN. LATEST SATELLITE ANALYSIS
SHOWS ONE WEAK SAVE MOVING ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA CURRENTLY
WITH NOTHING IMMEDIATELY UPSTREAM TO SPARK CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON. LATEST ITERATION OF THE HRRR ARE NOT AS IMPRESSIVE WITH
CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AS PREVIOUS RUNS.

OVER THE FAR SOUTH CENTRAL INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. LATEST
ITERATION OF THE HRRR TRIES TO DEVELOP CONVECTION HERE AROUND MID
AFTERNOON BUT NEVER GETS GOING. RAP FORECAST SOUNDING AT JMS
INDICATES LIMITED INSTABILITY OVER THIS AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

STILL WILL BE UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON...AND CAN NOT RULE OUT A
STRONG TO SEVERE STORM.

UPDATE
ISSUED AT 624 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN SMOKE AND/OR FOG THIS MORNING EXPECTED TO
IMPROVE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.

THUS FAR HIGH RES MODELS HAVE OVERDONE PRECIPITATION WITH NO
RETURNS ACROSS WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ON RADAR AT THE
MOMENT. WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY AM FORECAST. OTHER FORECAST
ELEMENTS ON TRACK THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 433 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE REDUCTIONS IN
VISIBILITY DUE TO SMOKE THIS MORNING...THEN ATTENTION TURNS TO
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT - AND POSSIBLE
SEVERE STORMS.

CURRENTLY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM NORTHERN MANITOBA TO THE BORDER OF
ALBERTA/SASK/MT IN THE FORM OF A STRONG COLD FRONT...AND A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE. REDUCED
VISIBILITIES FROM SMOKE CONTINUED ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WAS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...EXTENDING INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. THE ONLY
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE WAS OCCURRING OVER THE BLACK
HILLS. SHORT TERM HIGH RES MODELS HAD BEEN INDICATING CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY EVENING AND AFTER MIDNIGHT THIS MORNING...AND
CONTINUE TO INDICATE SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA BEFORE SUNRISE...BUT HAVE NOW DISCOUNTED THIS THREAT
FOR THE REST OF THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THIS WEAK SHORTWAVE IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE DRIFTING EASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS BY
THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET CONTINUED TO
DEVELOP FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE DAKOTAS THIS
MORNING...AND SHOULD BE WELL ESTABLISHED THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN DAKOTAS. THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE NOW DEPICTING
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FROM THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN THROUGH THE JAMES
RIVER BASIN AND EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER
HAS RAISED THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT IN THIS AREA FROM A
MARGINAL RISK TO A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS...THUS HAVE
MENTIONED THIS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE COLD FRONT THAT CURRENTLY EXTENDED FROM
NORTHERN MANITOBA SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN TO NEAR
HAVRE MONTANA. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT BY THE MODELS WOULD INDICATE
THE FRONT ENTERING THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF NORTH DAKOTA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...SWEEPING SOUTHEAST SUCH THAT BY AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
IT WOULD EXTEND FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS TO BOWMAN...AND REACHING
THE JAMES RIVER BASIN BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY MORNING. THE MODELS
DEVELOP PLENTY OF CAPE AHEAD AND ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT...AND
INCREASING SHEAR ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. BEST CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION IS IN THE STRONGER FORCING NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL
LATE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT MAINLY ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH
SLIGHT CHANCES AHEAD OF IT. HOWEVER THE BEST CHANCES OF ANY STORMS
BECOMING SEVERE IS MAINLY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THUS
THINKING THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE WOULD
HAVE A CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY EVENING...WITH THE SEVERE THREAT MOVING INTO CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE EVENING AND PERHAPS A BIT AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)

ISSUED AT 433 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE ONGOING
PRECIPITATION SUNDAY...MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...THEN A WARMING TREND MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHEAST THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT IS FORECAST TO STALL ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA ON SUNDAY...WITH A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS
FEATURE COUPLE WITH STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION (RER) OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK WILL SPAWN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH
CHANCES DIMINISHING TOWARDS THE NORTH. BEST CHANCES AND HIGHEST
QPF WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER BASIN OF NORTH DAKOTA
AND POINTS SOUTH AND EAST.

AFTER THIS SYSTEM MOVES OUT SUNDAY NIGHT...A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
AND STRONG PVA ALOFT WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
MAYBE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO MUCH OF ND MONDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. AFTERWARDS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND SHOULD KEEP THE WEATHER RATHER QUIET
THROUGH TUESDAY. UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES WILL FALL IN BEHIND
THE FRONT SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS MONDAY IN THE MID
60S TO LOW 70S...WARMING UP SLIGHTLY INTO THE 70S FOR TUESDAY WITH
DEVELOPING RETURN FLOW.

ANOTHER JET STREAK DEVELOPS TUESDAY NIGHT ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER OF NORTH DAKOTA...TRIGGERING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION AND BRINGING OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTH UNDERNEATH THE
RER OF THE UPPER JET. PRECIPITATION CHANCES LINGER INTO
WEDNESDAY.

MAINLY QUIETER PERIOD FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH A QUASI
ZONAL/WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME IN PLACE. TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO MODERATE WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE ROCKIES
LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SMOKE/HAZE HAS ABATED SOMEWHAT TODAY AND WILL BE ABLE TO BE ABLE
TO START OUT ALL TAF SITES WITH P6SM. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN CANADA THIS
AFTERNOON AND DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. SOME OF THESE STORMS
COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE LATE
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. SURFACE FLOW
WILL BECOME NORTHERLY WITH CEILINGS LOWERING TO LOW VFR.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...TWH



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