Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 070021
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
621 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT  604 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

RADAR RETURNS OVER THE AREA HAVE BEEN ON THE INCREASE WITH FAST
MOVING SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. WITH THIS...HAVE
SPREAD LOW POPS FURTHER WEST THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. REMAINDER
OF FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...
IN THIS SHORT TERM MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT AND WILL USE A
BLEND OF GUIDANCE. THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THE NORTHERN PLAINS ARE
DEEPLY EMBEDDED IN A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME WITH SEVERAL WEAK
PERTURBATIONS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH. TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE IN
SASKATCHEWAN WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST ALONG ONE OF THESE SHORT WAVES AND
DRAG A COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO THE REGION. MODELS HAVE BEEN RATHER
TEPID TO GENERATE MUCH PRECIP WITH THIS AND SO FAR TODAY HAVE SEEN
NO SURFACE REPORTS OF PRECIPITATION ALTHOUGH RADARS HAVE SHOWN
ABUNDANT LIGHT RETURNS. THE NAM/GFS MODELS GENERATE LIGHT PRECIP
ALONG AND TO THE NORTHEAST OF A 100+ KT  JET TONIGHT THAT LEAVES
MUCH OF WESTERN AND SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA DRY. SO HAVE BACKED OFF ON
PRECIP FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. ON
SATURDAY...THE MODELS GENERATED PRECIP AGAIN FOLLOWING THE JET
LOCATION. KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN SOUTHWEST AND SLIGHT CHANCE
OF LIGHT SNOW NORTH CENTRAL. AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LIGHT. CLOUDS WILL
MOVE SOUTH WITH THE COOL AIR ON SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

MAIN HIGHLIGHTS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE SEASONABLY MILD
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND MINIMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES
SATURDAY.

ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE
COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCES
OF RAIN OR SNOW OVER SOUTHERN COUNTIES SATURDAY EVENING.
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE VERY LIGHT WITH MAINLY
TRACE AMOUNTS TO POSSIBLY A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH.

A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW OVER NORTH DAKOTA TAKES SHAPE FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH THE MAIN BELT OF THE WESTERLIES
FARTHER NORTH INTO CANADA.

SOUTH AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI...WHERE THE SNOW PACK IS
GONE/VIRTUALLY GONE...AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MIDDLE
30S AND WE SHOULD BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 40S SUNDAY...AND 50-60 THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

NORTH AND EAST OF THE MISSOURI...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COTEAU...STILL
HAS A SMALL SNOW PACK. AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOW TO
MID 30S. MAX TEMPERATURES OF 35 TO 40 CAN BE EXPECTED SUNDAY...WITH
40S MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AND 35 TO 45 THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 604 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY EVENING BEFORE A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SETTLES INTO THE AREA BRINGING MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE AREA
BY LATE EVENING. MVFR CIGS WILL REMAIN INTO SATURDAY
MORNING...WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT POSSIBLE OVER THE WEST AND SOUTH
BY AFTERNOON...WHILE REMAINING AREAS REMAIN MVFR.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...JJS






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