Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 120236
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
936 PM CDT FRI JUL 11 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 936 PM CDT FRI JUL 11 2014

THE ONLY UPDATE TO THE FIRST PERIOD FORECAST WAS TO INCREASE SKY
COVER QUICKER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS
EXTEND WEST OF A LINE FROM CROSBY TO JAMESTOWN TO WAHPETON...AND
WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHEAST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT...MAINLY SOUTH OF I-94. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED
GIVEN THE ELEVATED NATURE OF THIS ACTIVITY. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS
HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 636 PM CDT FRI JUL 11 2014

ELEVATED CONVECTION IS STILL PROGGED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATER TONIGHT. THE
SHORT-RANGE MODELS ARE HINTING AT ONE-QUARTER INCH OR HIGHER QPF
AMOUNTS ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BETWEEN THE 06Z-12Z
SATURDAY TIME PERIOD. GIVEN THE AMPLE UPPER LEVEL FORCING PROVIDED
BY THE FAVORABLE POSITION OF THE RIGHT-REAR QUADRANT OF A 100+
KNOT JET STREAK...DO NOT SEE ANY REASON TO DEVIATE FROM SAID
RELATIVELY HIGHER AMOUNTS.

NEAR THE SURFACE...THE CENTER OF A SURFACE HIGH IS PROGGED TO NOSE
INTO NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR PATCHY TO AREAS OF
FOG TO DEVELOP OVER NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...MAINLY BETWEEN
09Z-13Z SATURDAY. THE MORE FAVORED AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
LOCALIZED LOW-LYING AREAS...ESPECIALLY NEAR CREEKS AND STREAMS.
ADDED PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG TO THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES AS A RESULT.

THE REMAINING WEATHER ELEMENTS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE. THE UPDATED
PRODUCTS WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 PM CDT FRI JUL 11 2014

MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS ARE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA.
OTHERWISE...ATTENTION TURNS TOWARD THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG TO
POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT PUSHING
SOUTH FROM MANITOBA.

FOR THE REST OF FRIDAY AFTERNOON...PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...AN
ELONGATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND JET STREAK STRETCHED FROM
SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA HAVE BEEN
ABLE TO MAINTAIN A WEAK LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS IS
THE SAME AREA THAT ORIGINATED IN NORTHEAST MONTANA EARLIER AND
MOVED ACROSS NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. SPC MESOANALYSIS INDICATES DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
CONTINUING WITH ADEQUATE SHEAR TO KEEP A MENTION OF PRECIPITATION
GOING ACROSS THE SOUTH THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY. WILL KEEP THE AREAL
COVERAGE AS ISOLATED...ESPECIALLY WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT/LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE LOCATED OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA THIS
AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL STALL
OUT THIS EVENING IN CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND BECOME THE FOCUS FOR
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHWEST
NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY NIGHT...AND SPREADING ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA SATURDAY MORNING. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL EMERGE OVER
SOUTHEAST MONTANA FRIDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
ROTATING UP FROM UTAH AND WYOMING NEAR/ALONG THE STALLED SURFACE
FRONT. LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL ALSO BE PRESENT AS THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF A 100KT JET SLIDES ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. THIS RESULTS IN ROUGHLY A 12 HOUR WINDOW OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA...MAINLY 06Z TO 18Z SATURDAY. THE GFS HAS TRENDED DOWNWARD
ON THE AREAL EXTENT AND AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING...WHILE THE NAM IS MOST ROBUST. THE ECMWF/CANADIAN GEM
MODEL REPRESENT A COMPROMISE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MOST PREVALENT SOUTH OF I-94 FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING...THEN TAPERING OFF IN THE AFTERNOON.

FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON...A DEEP CYCLONE WEST OF HUDSON BAY WILL
SEND A SURFACE COLD FRONT INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA BY 18Z SATURDAY
AND INTO NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z. THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS WILL BE THE FAVORED AREA FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MID/LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE GFS
ADVERTISES AN IMPRESSIVE 60KT TO 70KT 0-6KM SHEAR AREA. CAPE REMAINS
WEAK RANGING BETWEEN 200 AND 600 J/KG. HOWEVER THIS WILL NEED TO
BE WATCHED CLOSELY FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 PM CDT FRI JUL 11 2014

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE OUT OF THE AREA BY
SATURDAY NIGHT...THOUGH A LINGERING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM MAY BE
POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTH AND EAST.

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER HUDSON BAY WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...PRODUCING SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS IN CENTRAL AREAS MONDAY AFTERNOON. COOL AIR WILL ACCOMPANY
THE LOW...RESULTING IN HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S EAST TO THE UPPER 60S
WEST ON MONDAY. THE MOST RECENT GFS/ECMWF/GEM SUITE AGREE 850 TEMPS
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY WILL AVERAGE  +7C ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...UPSTREAM OBSERVED HIGH TEMPERATURES SUPPORT MODEL OUTPUT.
RECORD LOW MAXIMUMS ARE POSSIBLE IN EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE ON
MONDAY.

QUIET WEATHER TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND.
HIGHS WILL REBOUND TO NORMAL BY THURSDAY.

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO NORTH DAKOTA FROM MONTANA ON
FRIDAY...PRODUCING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST
TO EAST...FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 636 PM CDT FRI JUL 11 2014

MVFR/IFR VSBYS COULD DEVELOP OVER KISN BETWEEN 09Z-13Z SATURDAY.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD
IMPACT KDIK BETWEEN 04Z-13Z. HOWEVER...IMPACTS SHOULD BE BRIEF AND
CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD REMAIN VFR IF THUNDERSTORMS WERE TO DEVELOP.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TM
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...AC
AVIATION...TM







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