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000
FXUS63 KBIS 221733
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1233 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

MAIN CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO INCREASE MAX TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON A COUPLE OF DEGREES IN MOST LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES HAVE
BEEN RISING A LITTLE MORE QUICKLY THAN INITIALLY ANTICIPATED...AND
THE LATEST GFS LAMP GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THE SLIGHTLY WARMER VALUES.
THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE AND ONLY CHANGES WERE TO
CAPTURE CURRENT TRENDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1006 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. THE 22.12Z
NAM AND LATEST RAP STILL SUGGEST A SMALL CHANCE FOR A SHOWER IN
THE FAR SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. DID NOT
INCREASE RAIN CHANCES IN THAT AREA FOR THE UPDATE...BUT WILL HAVE
TO KEEP AN EYE ON RADAR TRENDS IN CASE A STRAY SHOWER TRIES TO
MOVE IN LATER.

CLOUDS CONTINUE TO CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...WITH THE MOST
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER IN THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY AS OF MID
MORNING. ADJUSTED NEAR TERM SKY COVER GRIDS TO REFLECT THE
TRENDS...WITH THE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON STILL ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 641 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION THIS
MORNING. ENOUGH GRADIENT FLOW HAS DEVELOPED TO MIX OUT MORNING FOG
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE. AS OF THE 11Z
OBS...THERE WAS NO FOG REPORTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA. AS A
RESULT...REMOVED MORNING FOG WORDING FROM THE GRIDS AND ZONES.

FURTHERMORE...REGIONAL RADARS ARE NOT DETECTING ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA. LOWERED MORNING POPS AS A
RESULT. OTHERWISE...ADJUSTED THE HOURLY SENSIBLE WEATHER GRIDS
BASED ON CURRENT OBS/TRENDS. THE UPDATED GRIDDED AND TEXT PRODUCTS
HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE DRY AND COOL
WEATHER IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM SYSTEM WHICH BROUGHT WIDESPREAD
HEAVY RAINFALL TO MUCH OF WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS.

CURRENTLY...MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA
WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDING SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO ADVECT WEST-SOUTHWEST FURTHER
SOUTH...STILL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE CLOSED UPPER LOW WHICH IS
MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE MID/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
REGION. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH AS THE LOW MOVES OUT OF THE REGION...AND SKIES WILL
CONTINUE TO CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH NOW THROUGH 15Z. WILL MAINTAIN
MORNING FOG NORTH WITH T/TD SPREADS NEARING ZERO AS SKIES
CLEAR...AND SEVERAL OBSERVING SITES REPORTING FOG. WILL MONITOR FOR
POSSIBLE DENSE FOG...HOWEVER WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE SO DO NOT EXPECT THE DURATION OF THE FOG TO BE VERY
LONG.

THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL
DAKOTAS TODAY...WITH GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS IN THE 60S. THE
LATEST 00Z GFS/ECMWF DO GENERATE 100-200 J/KG OF MUCAPE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ALONG A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS
SOUTHERN MANITOBA INTO NORTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. FOR NOW WILL LEAVE
THINGS DRY...BUT COULD SEE A SHOWER OR TWO AROUND THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS/DEVILS LAKE BASIN AREA.

ANOTHER COOL NIGHT WEDNESDAY THANKS TO CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT
WINDS...AND SFC DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM 35-45. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
LOW TEMPERATURES AROUND 40 TO 45. SOUTHEAST RETURN FLOW INCREASES
LATE TONIGHT FAR WEST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AS MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS. GRADIENT FLOW WILL INCREASE WEST IN
RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WIND
ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS PROG THE FIRST IMPULSE TO EJECT FROM OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED PACIFIC NORTHWEST LOW OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA FRIDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DEVELOPING
AREAWIDE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD. PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH GULF OF
MEXICO MOISTURE TAP WILL LEAD TO CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY
THIS WEEKEND THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE PERSISTENT
RETURN FLOW SHOULD ALSO ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL WARMING TREND TO DEVELOP
SATURDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. BY
TUESDAY...HIGHS SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

EAST / NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASED LATE THIS MORNING...AND EXPECT
GUSTS TO NEAR 25 KTS AT ALL TERMINAL LOCATIONS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.  WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING...BUT WILL INCREASE
AGAIN THURSDAY MORNING.  VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH ONLY PASSING SCATTERED CLOUDS AROUND 4KFT EXPECTED.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CK
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...CK