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000
FXUS63 KBIS 300501
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1201 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1201 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND LOCAL RADAR SHOWS A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY
OVER MOST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...THE EXCEPTION IS
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WHERE ISOLATED SHOWERS PERSIST IN
SOUTHEASTERN SIOUX COUNTY. THESE SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND EXIT
AS THE MAIN SHORTWAVE PRODUCING THESE SHOWERS SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHERN
BORDER IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG INTO THE GRIDS
OVERNIGHT WITH TEMP/DEW POINT SPREADS AT OR NEAR ZERO ALONG WITH
LIGHT WINDS. NEXT FEATURE TO CONTEND WITH IS A SHORTWAVE JUST NORTH
OF PRINCE ALBERT SASKATCHEWAN EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW.
THIS IS FORECAST TO SLIDE NEAR THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS MID/LATE
AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY. WILL CONTEMPLATE ADDING IN SOME MENTION OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AS THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE COMES IN.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 940 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

DISSIPATING SHOWERS MOVING SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL SIOUX COUNTY.
ALSO A COUPLE OF SHOWERS FIRED ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THIS PAST
HOUR NEAR SHERWOOD AND MOHALL. WILL KEEP A MENTION OF A SHOWER
THESE AREAS THROUGH 10 PM CDT. OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SOUTH FROM SASKATCHEWAN. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WIND COULD BE
SOME LOCALIZED PATCHY FOG EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE DRY ABOVE THE VERY LOWEST LEVELS SO WILL NOT MENTION
IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. UPDATED TEXT PRODUCTS WILL BE SENT
SHORTLY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 701 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS STILL REMAIN OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO
THE SOUTHWEST. ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO DIMINISH BUT DID EXTEND THE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH 9 PM...AND LIMITED AREA TO JUST ALONG
THE MISSOURI AND WEST...AND UP TO NEAR STANLEY. OTHERWISE NO
SIGNIFICANT UPDATES OTHER THAN TO POPULATE LATEST SENSIBLE WEATHER
ELEMENTS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 538 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

QUICK UPDATE TO EXTEND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WEST JUST A BIT TO
INCLUDE EASTERN PORTIONS OF STARK AND HETTINGER COUNTIES. ONE CELL
CURRENTLY OVER FAR NORTHEAST STARK COUNTY HAS SHOWN SOME
INDICATIONS OF SMALL HAIL. WILL ALSO FRESHEN UP LATEST SENSIBLE
WEATHER ELEMENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES HIGH STRETCHING FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TOWARDS THE MIDWEST. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES BROAD LOW
OVER JAMES BAY WITH RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES. COMPACT LITTLE WAVE
CONTINUES TO SLIDE DOWN ALONG THE MANITOBA/SASKATCHEWAN BORDER
NUDGING INTO NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...PRODUCING SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...LITTLE WAVE
WILL CONTINUE ITS SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION CONTINUING TO PRODUCE SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE CTRL PORTION OF THE
STATE...SLIDING OUT OF THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE
QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED.

ON WEDNESDAY...SIMILAR PATTERN REMAINS WITH RIDGE WEST AND LOW
EAST KEEPING NWRLY FLOW GOING. SOME MODELS HINTING AT ANOTHER
POSSIBLE WEAK WAVE TRACKING DOWN...BUT WILL HOLD DRY FOR NOW AND
LET LATER SHIFTS TAKE A LOOK AT SUBSEQUENT RUNS TO SEE IF IT IS
WORTH ADDING ANY POPS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

DRY AND MILD THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES RETURN THIS WEEKEND.

THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
THE WEEK. BY THE WEEKEND THE RIDGE IS PROGGED TO FLATTEN OUT AND
SHIFT SLIGHTLY EAST. THIS WILL PUT NORTH DAKOTA IN A MORE FAVORABLE
POSITION TO BE IMPACTED BY PROGRESSIVE RIDGE RIDING SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST WITH SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS MENTIONED SATURDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS
THE WEST THIS WEEK WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURNING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1201 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

VFR CIGS/VSBYS NEXT 24HR. PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED THROUGH 15Z BUT AT
THIS TIME IT SHOULD REMAIN SHALLOW AND NOT REDUCE VSBYS BELOW 6SM.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...KS