Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 261953

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
253 PM CDT Fri May 26 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 220 PM CDT Fri May 26 2017

Breezy conditions highlight the short term forecast.

Saturday will be a near copy of Friday across western and central
North Dakota under cyclonic northwest flow aloft. As supported by
the recent observed trend, did favor the higher edge of forecast
guidance for wind with northwesterly gusts of 25-35 kts for most
areas. Diurnal scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are
possible Saturday ahead of a vort max embedded in northwest flow
that will propagate southeast out of Canada during the afternoon.
Given inverted V-soundings and environmental momentum, a few
storms could have gusty winds over 40 mph.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 220 PM CDT Fri May 26 2017

A windy Sunday followed by dry and quiet weather into next week
highlight the extended forecast.

Once again, trended towards the higher edge of the 12 UTC guidance
suite for winds on Sunday under cyclonic northwest flow aloft.
Winds are expected to be stronger on Sunday with gusts between
30-40kts possible. There is a chance of rain showers and perhaps a
thunderstorm from the Turtle Mountains through the James River
Valley on Sunday in association with the impacts from another
impulse embedded in northwest flow aloft. Cyclonic northwest flow
aloft is favored by the 12 UTC global models through mid next
week, suggesting a continuation of dry and near to slightly below
normal temperatures.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 220 PM CDT Fri May 26 2017

VFR cumulus will continue to lift through the afternoon and early
evening across western and central North Dakota. Isolated showers
are possible north. Northwest wind gusts of 25-35 kts will be
common area wide this afternoon. A similar day is expected on
Saturday, with greater shower and thunderstorm coverage across the




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