Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 200045
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
645 PM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 640 PM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

Snow continues over much of the area so have increased snow
chances throughout much of western and central North Dakota. Main
concern at this point is that the NDARB radar near Bowman is
starting to show some decrease in activity. Will have to keep an
eye on that, because if the snow continues to taper off we may be
able to cancel the advisory over that area early.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)

Issued at 251 PM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

Forecast highlights in the short term period will be ongoing
winter weather headlines across the south now through Tuesday
morning.

Currently, embedded mid level S/WV trough lifting northeast across
the region interacting with a baroclinic zone to produce
developing snowfall across southwest and far south central North
Dakota early this afternoon.

Snow will continue to spread north and east into this evening,
with the best accumulating snowfall across the south more within
the baroclinic area and where better boundary layer moisture
resides. Winter weather headlines remain valid.

I opted to increase POPs even across the north, more so for a
high POP/low QPF scenario as it will snow just not accumulate as
much south. I also opted to add Hettinger and Grant counties to
the winter weather advisory as latest model output now puts 3 to
maybe 4 inches there along with the rest of my southern counties.
Will keep the expiration times as is, later this evening southwest
and Tuesday morning far south central and southeast. High
pressure currently over far northern ND and into northeastern
Montana will slowly build into western ND this evening, then
across central ND Tuesday morning. Dry air and subsidence
associated with the sfc high combined with decreased mid level
forcing will end snowfall west to east, thus the end times of the
winter weather adv remain in good shape at this time.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)

Issued at 251 PM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

Arctic air moving in with an area of high pressure will bring
another period of bitter cold to the region. Tuesday night and
Wednesday morning will see widespread lows in the double digits
below zero. Combined with a steady westerly wind around 10 mph,
dangerous wind chills as low as 35 below will result, and will
likely need wind chill headlines for most if not all of western
and central North Dakota during that period.

A quasi-zonal flow pattern develops Wednesday through the rest of
the work week, keeping precipitation chances minimal to nothing,
and slowly moderating temperatures with daytime highs into the 20s
by Friday. More of a southwest flow pattern then starts to
materialize next weekend, which should further moderate
temperatures a bit along with perhaps some increase in
precipitation chances.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 640 PM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

Snow continues over much of western and central North Dakota,
resulting in IFR/MVFR conditions. Over far northern locations,
some VFR conditions remain, but cigs are expected to decrease this
evening. Models are suggesting that MVFR ceilings will continue
through much of Tuesday even after the snow ends over a broad
portion of the area. Therefore, have introduced the lower
ceilings in the latest forecast.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM CST /8 AM MST/ Tuesday for
NDZ042-045>048-050-051.

Winter Weather Advisory until 11 PM MST this evening for NDZ040-
041-043-044.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...JJS



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