


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND
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201 FXUS63 KBIS 110859 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 359 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected today. The threat for severe storms is very low. - Breezy and cooler today with highs mainly in the 70s. - Surface smoke central and east this morning. Smoke may again lead to reduced visibilities later today through tonight, especially west, and then clearing from west to east on Saturday. - Otherwise dry this weekend with temperatures warming back into the 80s. - A more active pattern returns for the start of next work week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 347 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 Currently, showers and a few thunderstorms were situated over western ND, behind a cold front that is dropping southeast through the state. In addition, surface smoke directly behind the front is reducing visibilities into the 2-5SM range. We think this initial smoke behind the front will be transient in nature this morning. Additional surface smoke could rear it`s ugly head again later today and into Saturday. More on that later. The threat for severe storms looks to be low today as in general, instability aloft directly behind the front, remains ahead of the increasing shear that also increases during the day. Various CAMS have from time to time have indicated some stronger cells as they track across the forecast area. An isolated local gust or some small hail certainly can`t be ruled out, but by and large, expect non severe thunderstorms today. Later this afternoon as the shear catches up with the instability, stronger thunderstorms will be possible, but by this time the activity would most likely develop just to the south and east of the forecast area. It will be noticeably cooler and breezy today behind the cold front today, which typically would be a refreshing break from the heat and humidity. Unfortunately it looks like smoke from Canadian wildfires will be drawn down into the forecast area later today through tonight, both aloft and at the surface. The current reduced visibilities directly behind the surface cold front are not expected to last more than a few hours at any one location. It`s later today and tonight when we could possibly see some significant reductions to visibility. Current model forecast show that surface smoke would be most concentrated over western ND tonight and into Saturday morning. It does look like models clear the smoke from west to east pretty quickly on Saturday. Highs on Saturday are forecast to be in the upper 70s to mid 80s. Sunday will see highs mainly in the 80s, with a few lower 90 readings possible in the south. Although we heat up on Sunday, surface high pressure and upper level ridging should help to inhibit convection. A northwest upper level flow pattern that remains in place through the weekend begins to transition into a zonal flow early in the work week, to even a broad upper trough over central and eastern Canada below a Hudson Bay low. This would at least temporarily bring a cooldown to the region. The latest NBM ensemble guidance for Bismarck shows a rather large temperature spread on Monday with a significant cooldown through mid-week, and although we see a cooldown, the ensemble temperature spread remains high through the remainder of the week, so the extent of the cooldown early to mid-week and eventual warm-up late in the week remains uncertain. Current guidance at the other main forecast sites are similar. Monday does look to be a transition day and if we see another day of warm temperatures and we do see a cold frontal passage, perhaps we see a potential for some stronger thunderstorms. Currently the CSU ML page keeps the severe threat to our south on Monday. Nevertheless, we do see increasing NBM pops later in the day Monday and continuing into mid-week. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1243 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 A cold front currently through KXWA and KMOT will push through KDIK shortly and then KBIS and KJMS during the overnight hours. North to northwest flow expected behind the cdfnt through the remainder of the period, breeze this afternoon with gust to around 25kts. Smoke is expected directly behind the cdfrnt with current vsbys mostly in the 3-5SM range across the north. After the short period of smoke there should be a break until smoke possibly returns towards the end of the TAF period. Band of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms is also expected to sweep from northwest to southeast across the forecast area, with the potential for a band of MVFR ceilings and MVFR vsbys in shower activity. Conditions also improve from northwest to southeast across the forecast area from late morning through the afternoon. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...TWH AVIATION...TWH