Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 220224
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
924 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 922 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW HIGH CLOUDS MOVING INTO EASTERN MONTANA WITH
CLEAR SKIES CURRENTLY OVER WEST/CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. HIGH CLOUDS
WILL BEGING TO MOVE INTO THE REGION AROUND MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES
WINDS AND CLOUDS LOOK OK. NO CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WILL BECOME
MORE DIFFUSE AS A MILD WESTERLY FLOW BRINGS DRY AIR INTO THE
REGION. USED THE VISIBLE SAT INFORMATION TO INITIALIZE THE SKY
GRIDS. CURRENT FORECAST TRENDING WELL SO FAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

DRY AND TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS ACROSS THE
REGION. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE 30S AREA WIDE.

BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP WEST AND CENTRAL TUESDAY
AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS ACROSS MONTANA. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA. HOWEVER...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE AN HOUR
OR TWO OF SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 MPH...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

AN ACTIVE PERIOD WITH A STRONG STORM SYSTEM AFFECTING THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN ANOTHER LARGE STORM
SYSTEM AFFECTS THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND.

A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES TUESDAY EVENING
IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD...DEVELOPING A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA/EASTERN MONTANA/SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN BY THURSDAY
MORNING. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES
TUESDAY EVENING...AND THE TROUGH SPLITS INTO A NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN
BRANCH CLOSED SURFACE LOW WITH A WARM FRONT BETWEEN THE TWO. THE
NORTHERN BRANCH DEVELOPS NORTHEASTWARD AND INTENSIFIES AT IT REACHES
SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN/ALBERTA BY THURSDAY MORNING.

DURING THIS PERIOD...STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS SHOULD BE ONGOING ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE STATE ON
WEDNESDAY...STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS SHOULD BECOME STRONG FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THIS WARM FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS THE
WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH...IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A MID-LEVEL DRY
SLOT THAT WILL INHIBIT SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT.

ON THURSDAY...THE NORTHERN BRANCH SURFACE LOW MOVES SOUTHEAST FROM
ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN IN THE FORM OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. THIS WILL
SWEEP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...THEN CHANCES OF
RAIN SHOWERS TURN TO CHANCES OF SNOW SHOWERS AS COLD AIR FILTERS IN
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH NORTHWEST WINDS.

ON FRIDAY...THE COLD FRONT IS FOLLOWED BY A COOL CANADIAN HIGH
MOVING SOUTH OUT OF MANITOBA. NORTH AND EAST OF THE HIGH WILL BE
COOL DRY AIR...WHILE TO THE SOUTH AND WEST...RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT LARGE STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES
THE REGION.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...A BRISK EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL
DEVELOP OVER NORTH DAKOTA - WITH THE COOL CANADIAN HIGH OVER
MANITOBA/ONTARIO AND THE BLOCKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS OVER
THE ROCKIES AND 4-CORNERS AREA. THIS SCENARIO BRINGS A HIGH DEGREE
OF UNCERTAINTY TO THE FORECAST...DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF THE
BLOCK.

REGARDING TEMPERATURES...A COOLING TREND IS IN THE OFFING. THE
WARMEST DAY IN THE LONG TERM SHOULD BE WEDNESDAY AS THE WARM FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S
WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THEN HIGHS IN THE 50S THURSDAY...AND
MAINLY 40S FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 922 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST MANITOBA WILL KEEP VFR
CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE 00Z TAF CYCLE.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...TM
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...WAA






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