Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 190532

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1232 AM CDT Wed Oct 19 2016

Issued at 1225 AM CDT Wed Oct 19 2016

Have updated to better time increase in lower clouds pushing south
through the area. Have also lowered overnight low temperature
minimums by about 5 degrees based on current trends.

UPDATE Issued at 931 PM CDT Tue Oct 18 2016

Showers have ended, though low cloud cover has pushed further into
the area than previously thought as cooler airmass pushes in. HRRR
has had the best grasp on the progression of this cloud cover, and
it now looks like it has stopped pushing in over the west, though
will continue to push a bit further south over the James River
Valley. Have addressed this in latest forecast.

UPDATE Issued at 629 PM CDT Tue Oct 18 2016

A few light showers continue to linger in weak cyclonic flow over
south central North Dakota into the James River Valley, though
these will continue to dissipate with the lack of daytime heating.
Otherwise, quiet weather will prevail tonight with mostly cloudy
skies north, lesser cloud cover far south.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 113 PM CDT Tue Oct 18 2016

A cold front continues to slowly slide southeast across North
Dakota today. Occasional light rain may be possible along the
front, but the majority of North Dakota will remain dry this
afternoon and evening. Temperatures tonight will fall into the 30s
with a light, but chilly northwest wind.

A cool and mainly cloudy day can be expected tomorrow as cold air
advection behind the front continues.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 113 PM CDT Tue Oct 18 2016

Several weak upper level waves move through the region over the
next several days. Models differ widely on whether or not to
produce any precipitation from these waves. It appears by and
large the majority of the area will remain dry, with some isolated
rain here and there possible.

An upper level ridge moves in by the weekend. This will keep the
weather dry and warm. Temperatures will be above average with
readings in the 60s.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 1225 am CDT Wed Oct 19 2016

MVFR cigs will continue at KISN-KMOT-KJMS and KBIS through the
morning hours of Wednesday. Fog at KDIK will lift once MVFR cigs
work in there around 08z. This in the wake of a slowly advancing
cold front. Expect cigs to lift/dissipate from south to north
around 18z.




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