Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 220615

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
115 AM CDT Wed Mar 22 2017


Issued at 115 AM CDT Wed Mar 22 2017

Increasing clouds west into central along with breezy southerly
winds west developing east as return flow ramps up tonight.
Inherited forecast had this depicted well so only a few tweaks
were needed based on latest satellite imagery/observations and
trends with latest guidance.

Models show little if any forcing and are now also void of QPF so
opted to remove all weather mention this morning and for Wednesday
afternoon. Next chance of precipitation comes late Wed night as a
potent lead embedded wave lifts into our region. Still looks like
a mix of either rain or freezing rain depending on surface or
ground temperatures.

UPDATE Issued at 946 PM CDT Tue Mar 21 2017

Updated the cloud cover with the latest satellite data. The
satellite shows a very defined cloud line with clear skies
northeast and cloudy skies southwest. Otherwise current forecast
looks good.

UPDATE Issued at 626 PM CDT Tue Mar 21 2017

Current forecast looks good so far. Clouds cover the southwest
and will slowly move northeast tonight eventually reaching the
north central. Overnight lows are warmest southwest and coolest
over the snow covered and mainly clear areas north central.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 259 PM CDT Tue Mar 21 2017

A return above normal temperatures minimal chances for light
precipitation on Wednesday highlight the short term forecast.

Surface high pressure across the Northern Plains and Upper
Mississippi Valley this afternoon will propagate into the Great
Lakes on Wednesday. Return southeasterly flow will commence across
the region tonight and continue through Wednesday. A warm front
will enter western North Dakota Wednesday afternoon with highs in
the 50s expected along and west of US Highway 85 with 30s ahead of
the front across the James River Valley through the Turtle
Mountains. The 12 UTC global suite continues the trend of less and
less QPF expected with weak impulses embedded in the upper level
right, with now only slight chance at best expectations for light
snow on Wednesday central.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 259 PM CDT Tue Mar 21 2017

Above normal temperatures highlight the extended forecast.

The development of split upper level flow is favored on the 12
UTC global suites as an upper level low cuts off across the
Southern Plains Thursday night and into the southern Great Lakes
potentially by Sunday. This favors continued above normal
temperatures with highs in the 40s and 50s. The best chance for
precipitation is on Thursday associated with the influence of a
stronger shortwave north of the aforementioned low. There is a
slight chance for freezing rain Thursday morning across southern
North Dakota, however, the presence of rather dry warm layer aloft
may mitigate how much precipitation can hit the ground.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 115 AM CDT Wed Mar 22 2017

Gusty southeast winds continue across central and western
locations as surface pressure gradient tightens between low
pressure over Montana and high pressure to our east. Satellite
imagery shows solid deck from northwest to south central ND. A
few locations (KISN and KDIK) have cigs hovering around 3 thousand
feet, though otherwise VFR conditions expected to predominate.
Will also see the gusty southeast winds continue through the day
across the region.




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