Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 082106
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
306 PM CST Thu Dec 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 251 PM CST Thu Dec 8 2016

Current surface analysis places low to the east of James
Bay...while high builds into the plains. Upper level analysis
places flat ridge over the west coast with northwest flow over
our area. Frigid airmass remains over the area with winds
gradually diminishing as high builds in.

For tonight...high continues to settle over the area with
frigid temperatures expected. Winds will be light...but enough to
produce dangerous wind chills as low as 35 below zero over the
area. Therefore...have put out a wind chill advisory throughout
all of western and central North Dakota including the James River
Valley.

On Friday...frigid wind chills remain into the morning, with highs
maybe pushing to around zero with surface high overhead. Quiet
weather remains through the day before a modest short wave pushing
through west-northwest flow aloft approaches the area, bringing
late night snow chances to the southwest.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 251 PM CST Thu Dec 8 2016

Aforementioned short wave pushes through the northern plains
bringing snow chances to the area. Still some question on where
the primary area of snow will go as models are varying from the
middle of North Dakota to southern South Dakota. At any
rate...will go with the average for now put the greatest chances
over our southern locations. Wind chills may also remain a
concern.

For the remainder of the extended...occasional weak disturbances
moving through the area from time to time bringing a few snow
chances. Main concern during this period will be late Monday into
Tuesday when a very cold airmass is expected to settle into the
area. Some models are suggesting some stronger gusty winds behind
this cold front, but a shift east would put us in not such cold
air with lesser winds. Will have to keep a close eye on this
system over the next few days.



&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1213 PM CST Thu Dec 8 2016

Northwest winds will gradually diminish today. However, at noon CST
winds at KJMS were around 20 knots with higher gusts causing some
reduction in blowing snow. At KJMS there is a thin layer of IFR
reported...but think this is ice crystals lofting in the air with
the blowing snow - but added this mention in the TAFS with a
scattered layer around 800 feet. Expect that by around 22z the winds
will subside enough for better visibilities.

Otherwise, a mix of MVFR and VFR ceilings expected today...becoming
VFR this evening. Later tonight around/after 06z MVFR ceilings
returning at KISN/KDIK/KBIS as lower ceilings move in or form from
west to east.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Chill Advisory from 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ this evening to
noon CST /11 AM MST/ Friday for NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-
031>037-040>048-050-051.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...JV


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