Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 150854

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
354 AM CDT Tue Aug 15 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 333 AM CDT Tue Aug 15 2017

Widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms highlight the short

An upper level wave and jet streak continue to swing through the
Northern Plains. There is ample lift and low level moisture to
support widespread showers today. Instability will be mainly
focused across South Dakota, thus keeping any threat for severe
weather south of the area. The short-term models show mainly
showers for today with a few isolated thunderstorms later this
afternoon south. Widespread quarter to half inch amounts can be
expected today, with higher amounts possible across the southern
James Valley.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 333 AM CDT Tue Aug 15 2017

Warmer and drier weather expected in the long term period

An upper level ridge is expected to push in by the end of the week.
Generally, Wednesday and Thursday appear dry. A shortwave trough
drops through the area on Thursday night and Friday bringing a
chance of showers and thunderstorms northwest to southeast across
the area. Then another chance of storms Sunday. After highs in
the 70s Wednesday, daytime highs are expected to be mainly in the
low to mid 80s Thursday through Monday.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1227 AM CDT Tue Aug 15 2017

MVFR/IFR conditions in showers/thunderstorms and fog are expected
to develop tonight and persist through much of the day tomorrow.
Lower CIGS and rainshowers will impact KISN/KDIK early this
morning. These conditions will spread eastward to KMOT/KBIS by
18z. Early morning fog is possible at KJMS.




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