Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 231943

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
243 PM CDT SAT JUL 23 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 117 PM CDT Sat Jul 23 2016

Although we remain quite moist and moderately unstable over
eastern portions of central ND early this afternoon, our threat of
convection continues to diminish. Surface low pressure is situated
over central South dakota with a trough into northeast North
Dakota, and also north northwest into far southeast Saskatchewan.
This secondary trough/front will bring significantly drier from
western into central ND this afternoon/evening. Ahead of this,
over the central portion of the state we do remain slightly to
moderately unstable, but our directional shear profile is a little
messy and lapse rates struggle to increase. Also strong thermal
ridging still exists over the southern James River Valley which is
likely impeding convection. The last few runs of the EXP- HRRR
develop isolated convection over eastern portions of central ND
but each consecutive run gets pushed back an hour or so and look
more and more meager.

Tonight should be quiet with drier air spreading east and making
for a pleasant Sunday. Although many locales have had quite a bit
of rain over the past 24 hours, think there should be enough of a
surface gradient to inhibit fog development. Sunday highs will
range from the mid 70s northeast to mid 80s southwest. It may be a
little breezy from the north central into eastern ND but overall a
nice day.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 117 PM CDT Sat Jul 23 2016

The upper level trough that brought our Friday night and Saturday
morning severe weather and then our cooler and drier Sunday will
exit the region Sunday night with northwest flow aloft and surface
high pressure over the area.

High pressure slides east and we transition to a more quasi-zonal
flow on Monday with many impulses moving through the northern
plains through the entire work week. Deterministic GFS/ECMWF
models show a similar pattern of mainly daily thunderstorm
chances through Friday with drier conditions finally arriving on
Saturday. At this time the best threat for severe storms may be
mid Week (Tue-Wed). Monday remains warm but we are just getting
into the return moisture flow, especially early in the Day. By
Thursday our upper flow does shift a little more northwest and
our temperatures cool from the 80s early in the week, into the 70s
by late week. This may inhibit daytime instability by Thursday and
Friday. Will have to wait to sort the details but in general it
looks like we will see daily thunderstorm chances through the work


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 117 PM CDT Sat Jul 23 2016

VFR conditions expected through the 18z forecast period. West to
northwest flow over Western ND will progress across central ND
this afternoon. Winds will be breezy at KISN and KDIK through the
afternoon and will pick up this afternoon at KMOT KBIS and KJMS.
Lingering moisture behind the exiting low pressure system will
bring periods vfr cigs late tonight into Sunday morning.


.BIS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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