Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 260345
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
945 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 945 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD SOUTH FROM CANADA. MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED WITH NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH.
WIND CHILLS ARE ALREADY WITHIN ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER THE NORTH
AND EAST PORTION S OF THE CWA. EXPECT THE SOUTH CENTRAL TO DROP TO
ADVISORY CRITERIA AROUND MIDNIGHT AND THE SOUTHWEST MORE TOWARDS
MORNING. NO CHANGES IN THE CURRENT ADVISORY. MADE A FEW MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES FROM AROUND RUGBY AND HARVEY TO
JAMESTOWN WHERE THE FRESH SNOW IS AIDING IN THEIR COOLING. UPDATED
TEXT PRODUCTS WILL BE SENT SHORTLY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 551 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA
BRINGING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND FRIGID TEMPERATURES. WIND CHILL
ADVISORY FOR ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA GOES INTO
EFFECT AT THE TOP OF THE HOUR. ONLY SOME MINOR SKY COVER
ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE. ALSO KEPT A MENTION OF
FLURRIES OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR SO...MAINLY
BOWMAN COUNTY. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING THROUGH THE
PRAIRIE PROVINCES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
PLACES LOW TO THE EAST OF HUDSON BAY WITH RIDGE OFF THE WEST COAST
BRINGING FAST NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW TO OUR AREA. SOME SNOW LINGERS
OVER SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...THOUGH THIS CONTINUES TO DIMINISH
WITH SKIES SLOWLY CLEARING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA AS
SURFACE HIGH SLIDES SOUTH.

FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...FRIGID SURFACE HIGH
CONTINUES ITS SLOW SLIDE TOWARDS THE REGION. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING CLEARING SKIES ALONG WITH LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY WIND. FRIGID
AIRMASS WITH THE HIGH WILL BRING TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS BELOW
ZERO OVER MOST LOCATIONS WHICH...WHEN COMBINED WITH THE
WIND...WILL BRING DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS AROUND 30 BELOW.

ON THURSDAY...SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES TO WORK OVER THE AREA
BRINGING CLEAR SKIES AND COLD TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

THE MAIN HIGHLIGHT IN THE LONG TERM IS THE ARCTIC HIGH AFFECTING THE
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS
OF 25 TO 40 BELOW ZERO WILL LIKELY IMPACT ALL BUT THE FAR
SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ON THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE
HUDSON BAY LOW MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
THIS WILL KEEP RELATIVELY COOL AIR OVER THE STATE...ALBEIT WITHOUT
THE DANGEROUS WIND CHILL THREAT.

BY MONDAY A LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE WEST COAST WILL
ALLOW WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO REACH NORTH DAKOTA...AND BY
TUESDAY THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW TO
REACH MAINLY CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA FROM A STORM SYSTEM
THAT DEVELOPS AND MOVES IN THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS.
MODERATING TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME SHOULD BRING HIGHS IN THE
20S AND 30S MONDAY.

THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT ANOTHER ARCTIC AIRMASS TO MOVE SOUTHEAST
OUT OF THE CANADIAN FRONT RANGE AND INTO NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 945 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

MVFR CEILINGS HAVE MOVED OUT OF KDIK AND KJMS. EXPECT MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES AT ALL AERODROMES WITH ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE IN
CONTROL. NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW 5 TO 15 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST /11 AM MST/ THURSDAY FOR
NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...TWH






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