Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KBIS 180227
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
927 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 920 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

SHARP EDGE TO LOW CLOUD COVER HAS PUSHED JUST TO THE WEST OF A
LINE FROM MINOT TO BISMARCK AND CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WORK TOWARDS
THE WEST. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE A BIT LONGER BEFORE IT
STALLS OUT. TEMPERATURES MAINLY REMAIN IN THE 40S UNDER THE CLOUD
COVER...WHILE TO THE WEST UNDER CLEAR SKIES TEMPERATURES HAVE
DROPPED INTO THE UPPER 20S IN A FEW LOCATIONS. MID-EVENING UPDATE
WILL ADDRESS CLOUD COVER TREND AND WILL ALSO LOWER MIN TEMPS TO
THE WEST OF THE LOW CLOUD COVER.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 618 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

ONLY CHANGE FOR EARLY EVENING UPDATE WAS TO MAKE SOME UPDATES TO CLOUD
COVER BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. BACK EDGE OF LOW CLOUDS STRETCHES FROM
NEAR MINOT TO BISMARCK. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGEST THIS BACKING TO
THE WEST LATER THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...GOING FORECAST IS IN GOOD
SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

MAIN ISSUE IS CLOUD COVER. RECENT VIS IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW
CLOUDS ERODING ACROSS WESTERN ND WITH OVERCAST CONDITIONS
PREVAILING OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN REGIONS. WV IMAGERY SHOWS WEAK
SHORTWAVE IN NORTHWEST FLOW JUST PUSHING SOUTH OF ND WITH SOME
SUBSIDENCE/DRYING BEHIND IT. WILL CONTINUE THE TREND FROM EARLIER AND
MAINTAIN CLOUD COVER OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN SECTIONS...CLOSER TO
NAM/HRRR GUIDANCE WHICH HAD BEEN PERFORMING BETTER. NAM BUFR
SOUNDING FOR BISMARCK KEEPS SHALLOW SATURATED LAYER AROUND 900MB
THROUGH THE NIGHT. ANY REMAINING CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE SATURDAY
MORNING/AFTERNOON WITH RETURN FLOW BEHIND SURFACE RIDGE HELPING
WARM TEMPERATURES 5-10 DEGREES COMPARED TO TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE STATE FROM NW TO SE ON
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY...BUT OTHER THAN CLOUDS...DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AS BEST MOISTURE REMAINS EAST AND NORTH OF ND. MODELS
REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MID-WEEK DEPICTING LONG WAVE
RIDGE SLOWLY PUSHING EAST ACROSS NORTH AMERICA...RESULTING IN MUCH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER. NAEFS SUPPORTS THIS
SCENARIO AS WELL SHOWING UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS IN 99TH PERCENTILE
ALONG RIDGE AXIS. THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK SEES THE RIDGE AXIS
PASS TO OUR EAST...THOUGH DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ANOMALOUSLY HIGH HEIGHTS ACROSS THE
REGION. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS WELL INTO THE 60S THROUGH THE WEEK.
GFS/ECMWF SHOW SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY EVENING
BEHIND UPPER RIDGE...RESULTING IN SOME VERY LOW POPS. OTHERWISE
DRY WEATHER DOMINATES THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 618 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

BACK EDGE OF MVFR CIGS CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NEAR KMOT TO KBIS.
EXPECT THIS TO PUSH TO THE WEST THIS EVENING...THOUGH LOCATIONS IN
THE FAR WEST INCLUDING KDIK AND KISN ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE LATE SATURDAY MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...JNS
LONG TERM...JNS
AVIATION...JJS





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.