Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 191333

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
833 AM CDT Thu Oct 19 2017

Issued at 831 AM CDT Thu Oct 19 2017

Increased cloud cover for this morning into the early afternoon
for the mid/upper level decks as observed on GOES16 through 13
UTC. Otherwise, the warm forecast is well on track for today.

Issued at 619 AM CDT Thu Oct 19 2017

Blended hourly observations to near term forecast trends. No other
changes to the forecast for this morning.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 303 AM CDT Thu Oct 19 2017

Tranquil weather dominates the short term with a warm afternoon
and southerly winds to around 10mph. Clear and not as cold

Surface analysis and BUFKIT sounding data shows low level warm
air advection/rising air and subsequent pressure falls across
western and central ND. Currently, scattered high clouds pushing
from west to east this morning will give way to a clear sky as
mid/upper level flow transitions from zonal to southwesterly.
Highs today will range between 70F and 82F.

Mid level shortwaves begin to maneuver through the southwest flow
tonight, inducing surface low pressure in southeast Montana. Low
level southerly to southwest winds increase overnight. As warm air
advection continues, overnight lows will be milder, ranging between
40F and 50F.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 303 AM CDT Thu Oct 19 2017

Highlight in the long term comes Friday night, when a very strong
cold front moves across western/central ND. Concern here is for
winds to achieve advisory and high wind warning criteria.

Prior to the cold front, Friday will be another very warm day with
highs 72F to 82F. Southerly winds will increase over the James
River Valley (20mph to 35 mph), during the afternoon in response
to a deepening surface low pressure and cold front in eastern
Montana. Latest GFS BUFKIT sounding at Dickinson shows frontal
passage a couple hours prior to midnight. Strong cold air advection
and a 3hr pressure rise bubble of 8mb to 12mb is forecast to slide
into southwest ND between 03z and 06z Saturday. Mixed layer winds
are advertised at 45kt, and 53kt at the top of the mixed layer.
Although the pressure bubble begins to weaken as it slides into
central ND, Minot to Bismarck could also see warning level winds
for a brief time after midnight, with advisory level winds likely
at Jamestown. Will mention a potential for strong winds in the
Hazardous Weather Outlook/HWO covering the Friday night period.

The upper trough shifts through Saturday with windy and cooler
conditions and a chance for showers. Highs 55F to 60F. It remains
breezy to windy Sunday and Monday as another system pushes through
producing a chance of rain Sunday night and Monday. Seasonable
temperatures through the period with highs mainly in the 50s.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 831 AM CDT Thu Oct 19 2017

VFR conditions are forecast across western and central North
Dakota for the 12 UTC TAF cycle.




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