Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 260216
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
916 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 913 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

ONLY CHANGE TO FORECAST WAS TO KEEP CLOUD COVER OVER PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA IN A BIT LONGER THIS EVENING AS
IT HAS BE RELUCTANT TO DISSIPATE OVER SOME LOCATIONS.
OTHERWISE...GOING FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 611 PM  CDT MON AUG 25 2014

A FEW SPRINKLES ARE RELUCTANT TO DISSIPATE OVER NORTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA SO WILL KEEP THEM IN THE FORECAST FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF
HOURS. OTHERWISE...GOING FORECAST APPEARS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH CLOUD
COVER STARTING TO SLOWLY DISSIPATE. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE PESKY UPPER LOW IS NOW
LIFTING OUT OF THE AREA. ONE LAST TRAILING VORT COMBINED WITH
ANOTHER APPROACHING SHORTWAVE IS KEEPING A FEW SHOWERS OVER
NORTHEAST MONTANA AND NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. THE 18Z HRRR SHOWS
THE SHOWERS HANGING ON THROUGH 00Z. WILL MENTION SOME SCATTED
SPRINKLES NORTHWEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...IN COMBINATION WITH AN STRENGTHENING
UPPER LEVEL JET WILL PRODUCE INCREASING CLOUDS AND EVENTUALLY A
SWATH OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION...MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWEST LATE
TONIGHT AND SPREADING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ON
TUESDAY. THE INCREASING CLOUDS SHOULD HELP TEMPER THE MERCURY DROP
LATE TONIGHT OVER THE SOUTHWEST. BUT WITH DECREASING CLOUDS...AND
DIMINISHING WINDS...MOST AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW LOWS
INTO THE UPPER 30S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

A BROAD POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH IS FORECAST TO HAVE MOVED EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA BY TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TUESDAY NIGHT.

A WARMING TREND ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. NEAR NORMAL HIGHS ARE FORECAST BY FRIDAY.

THE UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO BREAK DOWN SOMEWHAT BY FRIDAY
NIGHT...AND WEAK WAVES IN THE UPPER FLOW ALOFT WILL GENERATE CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS EACH PERIOD FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT |611 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

MVFR CIGS OVER CENTRAL INTO PTNS OF WESTERN ND WILL CONTINUE TO
DISSIPATE AND LIFT THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
THEN EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS HAVE CAUSED OVERLAND
FLOODING...AS WELL AS RISES IN CREEKS...RIVERS...AND STREAMS IN
PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA - ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE
MISSOURI RIVER. SIOUX...GRANT...AND WESTERN MORTON COUNTIES SAW
LARGE AREAS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN.

AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF WESTERN MORTON
COUNTY AND PARTS OF NORTHERN GRANT COUNTY. THESE AREAS INCLUDE THE
BIG MUDDY CREEK BETWEEN GLEN ULLIN AND ALMONT...SOUTHWARD TO
HEIL...CARSON...AND LARK. THESE AREAS CONTAIN SMALL CREEKS AND
STREAMS THAT ARE TRIBUTARIES TO THE HEART RIVER.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...JJS
HYDROLOGY...TWH






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