Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 142310
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
610 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 609 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

THE CHALLENGE FOR THE EVENING IS WHETHER THE FROST ADVISORY WILL
NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO A FREEZE WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. DID LOWER TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF
DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...CLOSER TO THE COOLER EDGE OF
THE 18 UTC GUIDANCE SUITE...WHICH VERIFIED BETTER FOR LOWS THIS
MORNING. WILL MONITOR TEMPERATURE TRENDS THROUGH THE
EVENING...WITH THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL THE AREAS OF
CONCERN FOR A POSSIBLE FREEZE. A BIT STRONGER WINDS ON THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH ARE EXPECTED TO KEEP LOWS IN THE
MID 30S ACROSS THE NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

MAIN CONCERN TONIGHT WILL BE PATCHY FROST. SUNDAYS HIGH
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN LIMITED DUE TO ABUNDANT CU FORMATION.
SUNDAY AFTERNOONS CU IS CLEARLY BOUNDED EAST AND NORTH OF THE H300
JET. THE JET WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT WILL BE OVER MINNESOTA MONDAY.
SOME JET RELATED CLOUDS OVER EASTERN MONTANA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA WILL PERSIST TONIGHT AND COULD COMPLICATE THE MIN
TEMPERATURE FORECAST. HOWEVER BELIEVE MIN TEMPS N LOWER TO MID 30S
LOOK QUITE REASONABLE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND WILL GO WITH
A FROST ADVISORY ACROSS THE REGION.

ALSO KEPT ISOLATED SPRINKLES NORTHEAST THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

ON MONDAY...WITH THE H300 JET EAST OF THE REGION SHOULD SEE QUITE
A BIT OF SUNSHINE WITH MUCH LESS CU. HIGHS IN THE 60S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

TRANQUIL WEATHER ON TRACK MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. NORTHWEST
FLOW SLACKENS AS AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
APPROACHES NORTH DAKOTA DURING THIS PERIOD. THIS WILL PRODUCE PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS ALONG WITH A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND. WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT REPRESENTS A PERIOD WITH
A FEW MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES PROPAGATING THROUGH FLATTENING THE RIDGE.
THE GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN GEM MODEL ALL SHOW AN INITIAL SHORTWAVE
RESULTING IN SOME SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE
ALL BLEND IS CURRENTLY VOID OF ANY POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT THIS
WILL LIKELY CHANGE PROVIDING THIS EVENINGS 00Z MODEL RUN CONTINUES
WITH THE SAME OUTCOME. UNTIL A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING/NIGHT...EXPECT A SLIGHT CHC/CHC OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST TREND FOR SATURDAY IS FOR
A DRIER DAY.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS MAINLY
REMAINING IN THE 70S...EXCEPT HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S WEST WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL MODERATE FROM THE UPPER 30S/LOWER
40S TUESDAY MORNING...INTO THE 50S THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 603 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

VFR CUMULUS FIELDS WILL FADE WITH SUNSET ACROSS NORTH
DAKOTA...WITH VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE 00 UTC TAF CYCLE WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM CDT /2 AM MDT/ TO 9 AM CDT /8 AM MDT/
MONDAY FOR NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-
051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...AYD





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