Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 281734
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1234 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Sun Aug 28 2016

No significant changes to the going forecast early this afternoon.
Latest CAMS continue to advertise a couple areas of convection
this afternoon/evening. The first from northeast SD/southeast ND
into WC Minnesota. Convection here continues to remain just
southeast of our forecast area, but Dickey and Lamoure counties
would likely be our only counties of concern. The second area is
located across southern Manitoba and northeast ND into northwest
Minnesota. Here convection associated with the upper level wave
and along the cold front could flirt with our far northeast
counties of Rolette and possibly Bottineau around 23-02 UTC.
Instability and shear parameters are most impressive east of our
CWA but both areas of convection will need to be monitored as CAM
reflectivity signatures indicate supercellular properties with
both areas of convection. However, the areal coverage over our CWA
is not high enough to bump up pops over our current values.

Will leave temperatures alone. Did increase sky cover north and
west this afternoon. Updated products will be sent shortly.

UPDATE Issued at 934 AM CDT Sun Aug 28 2016

For the morning update we adjusted pops a bit across the north.
Mesoscale models are trending toward a small window of opportunity
for convection over our far northeast CWA from around 22-02 UTC
so we trimmed back pops a little, compared to previous forecast.
Also increased sky cover a in a small portion of the south
central where morning fog is currently burning off. Temperatures
look reasonable at this time. Updated products will be sent
shortly.

UPDATE
Issued at 626 AM CDT Sun Aug 28 2016

Isolated showers developed the past hour across my southeast, so
will maintain a low pop for that region through 12Z. Low Level Jet
wanes shortly after 12Z so not expected much thereafter. All
other grid elements on track. Also added fog northeast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday night)

Issued at 410 AM CDT Sun Aug 28 2016

The main forecast highlight in the short term period will be warm
temperatures today along with chances for thunderstorms north
central this afternoon.

Currently, zonal flow aloft over the Northern Plains region.
Embedded energy within the flow mainly resulting in scattered mid
level clouds some areas. Low Level Jet induced convection off to
our southeast in northeastern South Dakota. High Res models hinted
at some development over my southeast, where satellite imagery
shows an area of alto-cu south and southeast of Bismarck which
developed around 06Z. I opted to keep a slight chance pop down
there for a couple of hours early this morning.

Quasi-zonal flow continues today. A rather robust S/WV trough now
over central Alberta will be pushing east across southern Canada
today and tonight. Associated surface trough extending south along
the MT/ND border will maintain a southerly flow increasing WAA
into the area along with decent moisture advection into the
eastern Dakotas. Warm temperatures area wide, with forecast highs
in the upper 80s to possibly as high as the mid 90s over portions
of the southwest and central near a thermal ridge at the boundary
layer with 925MB temps near 32C. I increased temperatures above
guidance closer to the HRRR for this signature. Models bring very
dry air into western North Dakota later this morning and into the
afternoon behind the sfc trough. Surface Tds look to drop to near
40F, with some guidance indicating upper 30s southwest. Lowered
Min RHs well into the teens southwest where this looks the most
likely to occur. Despite the very dry conditions, forecast winds
only around 10KTs so no fire weather headlines planned.

Models backed off a bit but will continue to mention a chance of
storms today north central and into the Turtle Mountains. Overall
severe weather parameters low so do not expect any severe storms.

Monday will be quiet with surface high pressure building south
into the region. Cooler temperatures as a backdoor cold front
drops south into the state later tonight into Monday morning.
Still mid 70s to mid 80s for highs.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)

Issued at 410 AM CDT Sun Aug 28 2016

An increasingly active pattern through the week will highlight
the extended forecast.

A slowly amplifying broad upper ridge Tuesday into Wednesday will
maintain seasonably warm temperatures. Ridge running impulses
embedded in the flow will bring a chance of thunderstorms to the
region both days though with continued low predictability.

Models bring a strong upper level trough into western North
America Thursday into Friday so expect an active period
developing as this feature nudges the ridge east resulting in
southwest flow aloft over our region starting Thursday and
lasting into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Sun Aug 28 2016

A surface low was over Saskatchewan with a trough extending south
across eastern MT. This low and trough will move east today, and
the trough will enter western ND around 18z. A cold front behind
the surface low will then enter northwestern ND before 00z and
move southeast across the state Sunday night. VFR conditions
expected at TAF sites. Wind shifts expected, with southeast winds
ahead of the trough, southwest winds along and behind the trough,
then northwest winds behind the cold front.

&&

.BIS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...JPM


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