Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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521
FXUS63 KBIS 280237
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
937 PM CDT WED JUL 27 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 931 PM CDT Wed Jul 27 2016

Added a mention of fog across western North Dakota per agreement
amongst the 01 UTC RAP/HRRR and 18 UTC NAM NEST visibility
forecasts for late tonight into Thursday morning. This is
plausible given favorable weak upslope flow and already small
temperature and dewpoint spreads as of 02 UTC.

UPDATE Issued at 649 PM CDT Wed Jul 27 2016

No significant change with this forecast update other than to
blend to observed trends through 23 UTC. Multiple impulses
embedded in northwest flow aloft will interact with a modestly
unstable environment and appreciable moisture with PWATS near
1.40 inches to continue scattered showers and thunderstorms along
and west of US Highway 83 through the night. Severe weather is not
expected. Convection is expected to become focused southwest
through the night as the moisture axis shifts southwest.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 255 PM CDT Wed Jul 27 2016

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are likely this afternoon and
evening across western North Dakota. An upper level wave continues
to push southeast across the region. This is producing the needed
lift for precipitation. A moderately unstable atmosphere may
produce some strong thunderstorms, but severe weather is not
anticipated as shear and lapse rates are rather unimpressive.

Tonight, scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected across
western and southern North Dakota as moist upslope flow and upper
level divergence continues across the region. Additionally, low
stratus and fog may develop as the boundary layer remains rather
moist and flow remains weak. At this time it appears western North
Dakota is the favored location for any fog and stratus development
as dry northerly winds will help erode boundary layer moisture
across portions of eastern North Dakota.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 255 PM CDT Wed Jul 27 2016

Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms will continue through
next week...with perhaps the exception being Saturday. North
Dakota will be in northwest flow through the remainder of the
week. This will bring wave after wave across North Dakota. Timing
individual waves and associated precipitation is difficult at
best, but general model consensus is western and southern North
Dakota have the best chance at seeing precipitation through the
rest of the week.

Warmer temperatures are expected this weekend as a ridge begins
building into the Northern Plains. Readings in the 90s will be
common.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 931 PM CDT Wed Jul 27 2016

MVFR/IFR fog may develop late tonight into Thursday morning across
western North Dakota which may impact KISN and KDIK. Isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected across south
central and southwest North Dakota tonight, continuing into the
day Thursday southwest.

&&

.BIS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...AYD



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