Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 141713

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1213 PM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017

Issued at 1211 PM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017

Precipitation shield has moved northeastward from South Dakota into
far south central North Dakota and the James River Valley with the
upper level impulses moving northeastward through South Dakota into
eastern North Dakota. Expect this area of rain to persist through
the afternoon, mainly south and east of Bismarck, and end from west
to east during the late afternoon and evening hours as previously
forecast. Still expecting gradual clearing from northwest to
southeast during the afternoon and evening hours. Temperatures not
rising as quickly as forecast, but overall expectation is that highs
today will be in the 40s across western and central North Dakota.

UPDATE Issued at 842 AM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017

Little change for today other than for observed trends through 13
UTC. Expect precipitation to increase across far south central
North Dakota and into the James River Valley between 15-16 UTC as
the impulses evident across western South Dakota propagate
northeast through the morning.

UPDATE Issued at 637 AM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017

For morning update have spread fog potential a bit further south
over western portions of the region, and have spread out higher
cloud cover throughout the area. Updates have been sent.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 339 AM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017

Current surface analysis places high pressure over southern
Saskatchewan with inverted trough/frontal boundary stretching
through the northern plains. Upper level analysis places trough
stretching from the Canadian plains towards central Idaho.
Southwest flow remains over our area. Some light snow remains just
to the west of us over northeast Montana, while a secondary area
of snow is now pushing off over southern Manitoba. Some light
rain now starting to develop along/ahead of the boundary over the
southern James River Valley.

For today...precipitation chances will gradually diminish over the
north this morning. The focus then shifts towards south central
North Dakota into the James River Valley as the upper trough axis
swoops through the area, providing enhanced lift with rain
developing through the morning, continuing into the afternoon.
Rain will then taper from west to east later in the afternoon into
the early evening as trough slides off to the east and ridging
starts to build in.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 339 AM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017

Broad scale ridging over the area will bring dry conditions to the
forecast through much of the week. Temperatures will warm to near
average on Sunday, climbing to above average for the remainder of
the week. By Friday, models are hinting at a deep Pacific trough
pushing onshore setting up southwest flow over our area, resulting
in low precipitation chances entering the forecast.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1211 PM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017

IFR/LIFR ceilings and visibility in stratus and fog across much of
western and north central North Dakota will improve through the
afternoon. Light to moderate rain is expected across the far south
central and James River Valley this afternoon, where occasional
MVFR conditions are possible. Clearing conditions this evening,
then some mid level cloud moving in later tonight into Sunday
morning northwest through the James Valley.




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