Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 111740
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1240 PM CDT FRI APR 11 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT FRI APR 11 2014

EARLY AFTERNOON UPDATE FOR MINOR CHANGES TO MIDDAY TEMPERATURE
TRENDS. THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM IS PRECIP TYPE/AMOUNTS FOR
TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO PRECLUDE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS ALL BUT THE FAR NORTH. THE
LATEST WINTER WEATHER DESK GUIDANCE INDICATES BORDERLINE ADVISORY
AMOUNTS IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AREA...GENERALLY 2 TO 4 INCHES.
TIMING OF THE RAIN TO SNOW CHANGE OVER WILL BE CRITICAL.
THUS...CONFIDENCE NOT THAT HIGH IN GETTING A SIGNIFICANT AREA WITH
3+ INCHES...WHICH WOULD WARRANT AN ADVISORY. WILL EVALUATE
ADDITIONAL MODEL DATA THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY 12Z
ECMWF...BEFORE MAKING DECISION.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 851 AM CDT FRI APR 11 2014

MORNING UPDATE FOR MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPERATURE TRENDS. A FEW
SHOWERS MAY MOVE INTO FAR NORTHWEST ND PRIOR TO 00Z...BUT THE
BULK OF THE RAIN WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING.
ACCUMULATING SNOW STILL ON TARGET FOR THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS REGION.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 641 AM CDT FRI APR 11 2014

CURRENT RADAR LOOPS SHOW SOME WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS FAR
NORTHEAST. LOOKS LIKE THEY WILL MISS THE REGION SO LEFT OUT POPS
FOR TODAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS AT MINOT PROMOTING MIXING AND THE
TEMPERATURES THERE HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOWER 40S. OTHERWISE SOME
HIGH CLOUDS WEST IS ALL FOR CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT FRI APR 11 2014

ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUED OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING
WITH AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM NEAR THE
SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA BORDER HEADING TOWARDS BOTTINEAU AND THE
TURTLE MOUNTAINS. THIS PRECIPITATION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WESTERN
EDGE OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
STATE THIS MORNING. DOUBT LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION IS REACHING
THE GROUND...BUT THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AREA COULD SEE A LIGHT SHOWER
THAT RESULTS IN A HUNDREDTH OR SO OF PRECIPITATION.

CURRENTLY A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM A LOW OVER WESTERN ONTARIO
WESTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND SASKATCHEWAN. AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST ACROSS MONTANA THIS MORNING WILL MOVE INTO
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...WARM
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE
INTO THE 50S NORTH AND 60S SOUTH. THIS AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO NORTH DAKOTA...ASSOCIATED SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE WEST.

TONIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE STATE...THE MODELS
INDICATE THIS SHORTWAVE STRENGTHENING AS WELL AS EXPANDING IN AREAL
COVERAGE. THIS COMBINED WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH FROM CANADA
WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF LIFT AND SUSTAINED INSTABILITY FOR A PERIOD
OF SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS DEPICT WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS TONIGHT - ESPECIALLY NORTH...WHILE THE NAM IS THE OUTLIER
WITH MOST PRECIPITATION WELL TO THE NORTH IN CANADA.

TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUGGEST LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING IN THE TURTLE
MOUNTAIN AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY. SNOWFALL
FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AMOUNTS TO 1/2 INCH TO 1 1/2 INCHES OF SNOW
IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAIN AREA...WITH ANOTHER 1/2 INCH TO 1 1/2 INCHES
POSSIBLE SATURDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT FRI APR 11 2014

A REX BLOCK ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND ASSOCIATED DOWNSTREAM
TROUGH ACROSS CANADA AND THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN US WILL BRING A
USHER IN A COLD PERIOD FOR THE REGION THAT WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

ONE FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE THE SNOW EXPECTED SATURDAY MORNING.
GFS/ECMWF ARE A BIT CLOSER WITH THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES THAN
PAST MODEL RUNS. THE MODEL CONSENSUS PLACES 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW IN
THE FAR NORTH CENTRAL...IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS INTO ROLETTE COUNTY.
THEN PRECIPITATION IS TRIMMED OVER WHAT THE GFS HAS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...CLOSER TO THE NAM/ECMWF QPF. SOME SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN/SNOW
WITH LOW POPS REMAINS FRO SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE COLDER HIGH
MOVES IN FROM CANADA. TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE COOL...ABOUT
15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND GENERALLY DRY AS THE H500 TROUGH SLOWLY
MIGRATES FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES. WITH JUST A
FEW TWEAKS (RAISED POPS TO LIKELY SATURDAY MORNING NORTH CENTRAL) USED
THE ALLBLEND GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT FRI APR 11 2014

EXPECT MAINLY MID LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY...WITH MVFR
CEILINGS DEVELOPING LATER TONIGHT. SHOWERS MOST FAVORED TONIGHT AT
KISN/KMOT/KJMS AND HAVE INCLUDED PREVAILING -SHRA GROUPS. LESSER
CHANCES AT KBIS/KDIK...WITH PRECIPITATION LIMITED TO BRIEF VCSH
GROUPS. PRECIP TYPE MAY BE AN ISSUE AT KMOT LATE AS BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPS COOL...BUT HAVE KEPT ALL RAIN IN TAF FOR NOW.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...RP KINNEY
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...WAA







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