Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 170534

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1234 AM CDT Mon Oct 17 2016

Issued at 1234 AM CDT Mon Oct 17 2016

No significant changes with the update. Temps running a little
below forecast values across the southwest, but high clouds moving
over that area should inhibit additional cooling. Showers across
the far northeast have moved out of the area as well.

UPDATE Issued at 944 PM CDT Sun Oct 16 2016

The showers have nearly cleared the region and should finally do
so across the north central by 10 PM. Then clearing skies will
continue except for the far southwest and south central. Will
continue the slight chance to chance for showers there after

UPDATE Issued at 802 PM CDT Sun Oct 16 2016

Area of thunderstorms benefiting from shear, strong lapse rates
and just enough cape beneath the upper impulse. Extended the
chance for thunderstorms across the north central through 10 pm

UPDATE Issued at 705 PM CDT Sun Oct 16 2016

After a fairly active convective period over the few hours things
should quiet down quite a bit after 8 pm cdt. One or two
thunderstorms will persist through 8 or 9 pm, then end. Wind
advisory has expired.

UPDATE Issued at 456 PM CDT Sun Oct 16 2016

Latest HRRR runs have been hinting at a cluster of thunderstorms
developing from north central South Dakota into south central
North Dakota late this afternoon and early evening, along the warm
frontal boundary as it moves east. Convective diagnostics support
thunderstorm growth if the cap breaks with mid level lapse rates
greater than 7.5 and MU capes 500-1000. Last few volume scans
show several cells developing in north central South Dakota per
HRRR. Updated for thunderstorms across teh far southeast CWA.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 323 PM CDT Sun Oct 16 2016

A large-scale upper level low/trough extended from the Pacific
Northwest across the Rockies and into the Northern Plains. The first
potent upper level shortwave impulse associated with this
large-scale system was currently moving northeast across
Saskatchewan and North Dakota. The surface expression of this system
is a low over the southern border of Alberta/Saskatchewan...with a
trough extending southeastward to another low over southwestern
ND/northwestern SD. Strong and gusty southeast winds ahead of the
surface system had reached wind advisory criteria (sustained at 30
mph with gusts to 40 mph) over south central ND into the James
Valley. Behind this system westerly winds at 15 to 30 mph are
expected this afternoon into the early evening.

Although some Burleigh and Emmons county stations remain in wind
advisory criteria at 3pm...expect winds to diminish this hour as the
surface trough approaches from the west. Will extend the wind
advisory for the south central Coteau and James Valley counties
until 7 pm cdt.

The surface trough is forecast to move east across the state today,
arriving in the Red River Valley later this evening. Expect the
southeast winds to decrease as the surface trough approaches...then
westerly winds kick in. Thus expect that the wind speeds in the
James Valley should decrease below advisory criteria this evening.
Westerly winds overnight should remain at around 5 to 15
mph...keeping temperatures from dropping too much. Looking at
overnight lows from the upper 30s northwest to upper 40s southeast.

Scattered to isolated showers over the state this afternoon may
linger in northern and central/eastern parts of the state late this
afternoon and early evening...then should end in the James Valley
during the early evening.

Expect clearing and a quiet night most of tonight behind the wave.

Meanwhile the second potent shortwave in the large-scale system digs
south as it crosses the Rockies tonight over Utah/Wyoming...reaching
southern ND before daybreak. An upper level jet streak associated
with the shortwave moves across WY/SD/MN. Instability along this
feature may induce a band of rain showers across southern ND daytime
Monday. Thus have a chance of showers along the
SD border late tonight...then some higher chances across southern ND
daytime Monday. Looking at partly cloudy skies north and mostly
cloudy south...with highs from the 50s south to lower 60s north.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 323 PM CDT Sun Oct 16 2016

Upper level shortwave energy continues moving across the state
Monday night into Tuesday.

The next upper level trough moves east across the Northern Plains
Wednesday/Thursday...but a split flow in the pattern should shunt
any precipitation away from ND. It will allow some cool air moving
south out of Canada. Looking at highs in the 45 to 55 range by

After that a building upper level ridge expanding out of the desert
southwest should keep any big precipitation-makers away from ND.
This will also allow for a nice warming trend with highs back into
the 55-65 degree range by Friday.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1234 AM CDT Mon Oct 17 2016

VFR conditions expected through the period. However a band of
showers is expected to spread across the southern part of the
state during the day. For now, have added VCSH to KBIS and KDIK
for mainly the afternoon.




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