Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 142025
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
325 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)

ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND
BECOME PRIMARILY LIMITED TO THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON. WITH RELATIVELY WARM GROUND AND ROAD TEMPS...NO
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED...BUT MOTORISTS SHOULD BE
PREPARED FOR QUICK REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY IN SNOW SHOWERS.

FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT DECREASING CLOUDS EARLY FOLLOWED BY
INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST...WHICH WAY
BE ENOUGH TO OBSCURE THE LUNAR ECLIPSE OVERNIGHT. THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SETTLE OVER THE EASTERN COUNTIES AND TEMPS
THERE ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE TEENS. ON TUESDAY...EXPECT
EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WITH A LARGE TEMPERATURE CONTRAST FROM THE
LOWER 30S IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 50S IN THE FAR
SOUTHWEST. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH INTO THE SOUTHWEST TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH MID LEVEL FORCING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST...WHERE A
RAIN/SNOW MIX IS POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)

ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS TO MORE ZONAL FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD TUESDAY NIGHT HELPING TO STEER AN EMBEDDED S/WV INTO
SOUTH DAKOTA/NORTHERN NEBRASKA BY 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING. ASSOCIATED
SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM EASTERN MONTANA SOUTHEAST INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT. WHILE MOST PRECIPITATION GENERATED
FROM THE MID LEVEL WAVE LOOKS TO REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH...STRONG
THERMAL UPGLIDE ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON THE NORTH/NORTHEAST
SECTOR OF THE LOW WILL BRING A HEALTHY SWATH OF MOISTURE ACROSS MY
NORTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN COUNTIES...FROM FAR SOUTHEAST
SASKATCHEWAN SOUTHEAST THROUGH MINOT AND INTO THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY. FORCING WILL BE ENHANCED ACROSS THIS SAME AREA BY ANOTHER
AREA OF PVA MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA.
PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY AS FORCING DECREASES.

MODELS STILL NOT IN AGREEMENT ON QPF. WHILE THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF ARE ON
THE DRY SIDE WITH AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OF WATER OVER MY FAR
NORTHEAST (ROLETTE COUNTY) TAPERING OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST...THE 12Z
GEM (WHICH NAILED SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAYS SNOWFALL) IS WETTER WITH A
SWATH OF THREE TENTHS NORTH CENTRAL AND EAST. BASED ON ITS SUPERIOR
PERFORMANCE LAST NIGHT/TODAY...LEANED IN THE GEM`S DIRECTION. CAA
NORTH TO SOUTH TUESDAY EVENING WILL CHANGES MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE
RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW MIX INTO SNOW. APPLYING THE 12Z/GFS/NAM RATIOS...I
CALCULATE 1-3 INCHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NORTH CENTRAL AND EAST...WITH
HALF AN INCH AT KISN AND NEAR ONE INCH AT BISMARCK.

MODEL SPREAD INCREASES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...REGARDING THE TRACK OF A CLOSED LOW IN SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...AND ANOTHER RATHER POTENT S/WV CROSSING
THE ROCKIES FRIDAY AND PROGRESSING EAST INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS/SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA THE FIRST HALF OF THIS COMING EASTER
WEEKEND. WILL NEED TO WATCH BOTH THESE WAVES AS EACH HAS SOME
POTENTIAL.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)

ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

PERIODS OF MVFR CLOUDS AND VISIBILITIES IN LIGHT SNOW WILL PERSIST
INTO THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY IMPACTING KISN/KBIS/KJMS. EXPECT A
DECREASE IN CLOUDS WITH SNOW TAPERING OFF BY LATE AFTERNOON.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...RP KINNEY
LONG TERM...NH









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