Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 261146
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
646 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS THERE
IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL IN THE VICINITY OF A LOW LEVEL H850
FLOW. TRENDS ARE A BIT SLOW TO DEVELOP BUT WILL KEEP POPS IN PLACE
FOR NOW FAR SOUTHWEST. SOME PLACES IN THE WEST HAVE MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING IN THE UPPER 30S...AT WATFORD CITY AND
TIOGA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER
FLOW INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. A SPLIT FLOW WAS
OBSERVED WITH THE NORTHERN BRANCH ENTRENCHED ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
CANADA AND DIPPING INTO NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA...WHILE THE
MOIST/MORE ACTIVE SOUTHERN BRANCH RESIDED FROM THE GREAT
BASIN...ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES. A
COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES WERE SEEN PEELING AWAY FROM THE MAIN UPPER
LOW CIRCULATING OVER CENTRAL/NORTHERN NEVADA. A 70KT JET STREAK
AT 300MB EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH WAS SEEN STRETCHING
FROM SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA. VERTICAL
MOTION FROM THE SHORTWAVE AND THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET
STREAK WILL PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS TODAY
ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. HIGHEST POPS NEAR/ALONG THE ND/SD
BORDER THEN TAPERING OFF QUICKLY TOWARD THE NORTH AS YOU APPROACH
INTERSTATE 94. INSTABILITY REMAINS SOUTH OF THE BORDER TODAY AND
HAVE KEPT THE PRECIPITATION TYPE AS SHOWERS WITH NO MENTION OF
THUNDER PER NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS. FOR NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA...EXPECT
DRY WEATHER WITH A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY. HIGHS WILL REACH THE LOWER
70S NORTHWEST THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL. THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES
WILL BE FOUND IN THE SOUTH DUE TO CLOUDS AND SHOWER POTENTIAL...THUS
HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 60S. SHOWERS WILL EXIT THE SOUTHERN
JAMES RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS EVENING WITH A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY
NORTH AND CENTRAL OVERNIGHT AND PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS SOUTH.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM 45F TO 53F.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

H500 MID LEVEL FLOW DEPICTED BY THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS SHOW A
RATHER FRACTURED H500 FLOW PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA INITIALLY.
THIS WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER IN PLACE UNTIL FRIDAY. BEGINNING
WEDNESDAY A WEAK H500 TROUGH IN A SOUTHERN STREAM FLOW OFF THE
WEST COAST IS FORECAST TO DRIFT EAST TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY.
FOR THE MOST PART THIS WILL HAVE LITTLE BEARING ON THE
PRECIPITATION FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS IT REMAINS SOUTH
OF THE REGION. HOWEVER A SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW
WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND BRUSH THE NORTHERN PLAINS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH A COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED WIDELY SCATTERED
CONVECTION. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A MORE ROBUST SHORTWAVE ON
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BRINGING MORE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. FOR
TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK PROMISES A SLOW MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES
INTO THE 80S WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY UNTIL THE COLD
FRONTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS NEXT WEEKEND BRINGS
IN COOLER TEMPERS INTO THE 70S...WITH SOME 60S POSSIBLE NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

VFR CIGS/VSBYS NEXT 24HR. HOWEVER PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE NEAR
KMOT/KISN...AND HAVE INCLUDED A VCFG THROUGH 15Z TUESDAY. OTHERWISE
EXPECT SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH A
VCSH AT KBIS/KJMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH CIGS AT 4KFT. IT NOW
APPEARS THE MAIN PRECIPITATION AREA WILL REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF
KDIK AND HAVE REMOVED THE VCSH AT KDIK WITH THE 12Z FORECAST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 300 CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS HAVE CAUSED OVERLAND
FLOODING...AS WELL AS RISES IN CREEKS...RIVERS...AND STREAMS IN
PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA - ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE
MISSOURI RIVER. SIOUX...GRANT...AND WESTERN MORTON COUNTIES SAW
LARGE AREAS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN.

AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF WESTERN MORTON
COUNTY AND PARTS OF NORTHERN GRANT COUNTY AT LEAST THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THESE AREAS INCLUDE THE BIG MUDDY CREEK BETWEEN
GLEN ULLIN AND ALMONT...SOUTHWARD TO HEIL...CARSON...AND LARK.
THESE AREAS CONTAIN SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS THAT ARE TRIBUTARIES
TO THE HEART RIVER.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...WAA
HYDROLOGY...KS





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