Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 182337
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
637 PM CDT Tue Apr 18 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 636 PM CDT Tue Apr 18 2017

Only made small changes to the going forecast to blend in current
conditions. The fog forecast remains a challenge, though the HRRR
and SREF both suggest at least some restriction in visibility
will occur late tonight into early Wednesday morning. The rain
chances for late tonight into Wednesday still look reasonable,
though we may be bringing the chances in a little too quick. Will
take another look, and consider slowing the timing in the next
update.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 249 PM CDT Tue Apr 18 2017

Weather features as of Tuesday afternoon include a cold frontal
boundary extending from low pressure across Minnesota through
South Dakota. The frontal boundary/baroclinic zone then extends
into Montana in what will remain a quasi-stationary frontal zone.
This will be the focus for increasing chances of rain across the
west and south late tonight and Wednesday.

There is some uncertainty on the potential for fog tonight. On one
hand the cool boundary layer and area of stratus across much of
central North Dakota will be favorable for fog formation as the
stratus erodes this afternoon and evening. This combined with the
abundant low level moisture from the rainfall last night would
increase the likelihood for fog. On the other hand increasing mid
level clouds may tend to inhibit fog. Will favor the fog argument
initially then diminish it late tonight as the clouds increase.

On Wednesday the best chances of rain will be south and west with
the influence of surface high pressure across the northeast
holding off precip chances there.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 249 PM CDT Tue Apr 18 2017

The extended period will be at first mainly dry as h500 fractured
flow/rex blocking across the north central CONUS Thursday and
Friday breaks down to a broad flat ridge by the weekend. This will
support at least near normal to above normal temperatures with
low or no pops until Monday and Tuesday when progressive short
wave energy brings the next chance for rain. Highs will be in the
mid 50s and 60s through the weekend then cooling to the 40s/50s
Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 636 PM CDT Tue Apr 18 2017

A few mvfr ceilings remain in place late this afternoon across
central ND. Forecast soundings and numerical guidance still
suggest some improvement, so have gone with that for now. There is
some potential for fog late tonight into Wednesday morning, so
introduced mvfr visibilities overnight. Rain is expected spread
into southern parts of the state on Wednesday, mainly affecting
KDIK, KBIS and KJMS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CK
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...CK



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