Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 162039

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
239 PM CST Thu Nov 16 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 217 PM CST Thu Nov 16 2017

Challenges for the short term include clouds and temperatures
associated with wrm/cold frontal passages well as a light mix of
rain/snow and sleet/freezing rain. All this would be of
significance except the precipitation amounts are very light. Its
hard to find much QPF in the models. So kept the POPs low tonight
and let the process generate the precipitation type. Mostly
rain/snow chances southwest and central with some snow/sleet and
freezing rain across the northern James River valley late this
evening and after midnight. With trace amounts of QPF do not think
this will rise to a significant event.

Daytime Friday will start with the cold front moving through the
region and high pressure building into the north. The frontal
baroclinic zone will remain across far southern North Dakota and
this is where a chance of rain and snow will linger through the

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 217 PM CST Thu Nov 16 2017

After Friday, a dry period is forecast through Tuesday as the h500
flow remains westerly and dry. A short wage trough will move
across southern Canada Early next week bringing a cold front
through and cooling temperatures for Tuesday. Some light rain or
snow shows up on Wednesday as return flow brings warm advection
into teh region. So far Thanksgiving looks mainly dry with near to
above average temperatures.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1145 AM CST Thu Nov 16 2017

Hazards to aviation include IFR conditions to the north of a warm
front across far southwest North Dakota and gusty Southeast winds
across the James River Valley. As the front lifts north this
afternoon conditions will become VFR at all TAF sites. Winds will
diminish by 04Z KJMS.




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