Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 160006

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
706 PM CDT Sat Jul 15 2017

Issued at 706 PM CDT Sat Jul 15 2017

Only minor changes were made with this update to refresh hourly
forecast fields through the evening based on observational trends
and rapid-refresh guidance. Low-level flow is beginning to veer
as surface pressure falls intensify over eastern MT as of 00 UTC,
but a quiet night is in store beneath shortwave ridging aloft.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 323 PM CDT Sat Jul 15 2017

Slightly cooler temperatures will continue through the evening as
an upper level ridge amplifies to the west. As the ridge axis
pushes east tomorrow, western and central North Dakota will
transition to southwest flow aloft. This pattern will promote very
hot temperatures. Widespread highs near and above the century
mark will be possible Sunday afternoon. Additionally, low relative
humidities, breezy southerly winds, and dry vegetation will
promote critical fire weather conditions across parts of western
and south central North Dakota. Please see the fire weather
discussion for more details.

A few of the high resolution models show the potential for some
precipitation approaching the west by Sunday mornings. The global
models do hint at a subtle shortwave in the mid levels around
12z, so cannot completely discount it. More showers and
thunderstorms will be possible during the afternoon hours over the
northwest associated with an approaching cold front.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 323 PM CDT Sat Jul 15 2017

Showers and thunderstorms will become more numerous along the cold
front by the evening hours on Sunday. SPC has much of western and
central North Dakota outlined in a marginal risk of severe weather
on Sunday. Instability and shear both appear modest at this time,
but a strong to marginally severe hail report or wind gust is not
out of the question with any stronger cores that develop. The
most likely areas for strong thunderstorms will likely be in the
northwest and the north central.

A cool down will begin on Monday, while the eastern part of the
forecast area will still be relatively hot, with a warm 925mb
thermal ridge extending over the James River Valley. The cool down
continues on Tuesday as the ridge flattens and we transition to a
fast quasi-zonal flow. Multiple embedded shortwaves will bring
near daily chances of showers and thunderstorms during the week.
This progressive and somewhat active pattern will potentially
last into the weekend.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 706 PM CDT Sat Jul 15 2017

VFR conditions are forecast through the 00 UTC TAF cycle. South
winds will increase Sunday with gusts to 30 kt ahead of a cold
front. Low-level wind shear is likely in northwest ND late tonight
before surface winds strengthen. There`s also a non-zero chance of
sub-VFR ceilings or shallow fog in central ND from 09 to 14 UTC,
and of thunderstorms in western ND along the cold front after 21
UTC Sunday. However, confidence in either occurring during this
TAF cycle was too low for them to be mentioned at any terminal.


Issued at 323 PM CDT Sat Jul 15 2017

A cold front will push across western North Dakota late Sunday
afternoon into the early evening. Ahead of the cold front, southerly
winds between 20 mph and 30 mph, combined with temperatures around
100 degrees, minimum relative humidities as low as 15 percent, and
very dry fuels, will produce critical fire weather conditions along
and west of the Missouri River.

Beyond Sunday, a more active weather pattern is anticipated with
periodic chances for showers and thunderstorms through most of
next week. High temperatures will generally be in the 80s Tuesday
through Friday, with minimum relative humidities around 30 percent.


Red Flag Warning from 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ to 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/
Sunday for NDZ017>020-031>034-040>045.



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