Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 181128

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
628 AM CDT Sun Jun 18 2017

Issued at 626 AM CDT Sun Jun 18 2017

No changes for today other than for observed trends this morning
through 11 UTC.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 404 AM CDT Sun Jun 18 2017

Diurnal showers and thunderstorms today highlight the short term

The CAMs through the 07 UTC HRRR have been in good agreement on
scattered diurnal convective development outside of a narrow
corridor that is expected to be precipitation-free from around
Bowbells and Crosby, through Center, Bismarck, Fort Yates and
Linton. This zone is evident as a dry slot on water vapor imagery
this morning. Severe weather is not expected. Per verification,
did trend towards the lower edge of guidance for forecast relative
humidity southwest and towards the higher edge of guidance for
winds for most areas with efficient mixing expected.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 404 AM CDT Sun Jun 18 2017

Rather nominal weather highlights the extended forecast.

Northwest flow aloft across the Northern Plains by the 00 UTC
global suites is forecast to transition to zonal by mid week,
before a continued transition to low amplitude troughing late in
the week. This favors a relative warm up back to near normal
values in the upper 70s and the lower 80s by Wednesday, before a
return to slightly below normal temperatures late in the week.
Periodic chances for showers and thunderstorms are forecast
through the period associated with low predictability waves
embedded in the fast flow.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 626 AM CDT Sun Jun 18 2017

Pockets of MVFR stratus may develop early this morning across
central and portions of northwest North Dakota, and lift through
the late morning with heating. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
are expected across the James River Valley and Turtle Mountains
today, with a slight chance southwest.




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