Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 052038
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
338 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES.

CURRENT RADAR AND SATELLITE ANALYSIS INDICATE A DYING LINE OF
CONVECTION PUSHING OUT OF THE FAR SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWA
ALONG THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDER IS EXTENDING FROM SOUTHEAST MONTANA INTO SOUTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA. WITH THE COLD FRONT NOW THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THINK
THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE MINIMAL...THUS HAVE REMOVED
SEVERE WORDING FOR LATE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE CONVECTION
STREAMING IN FROM MONTANA IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED 100KT JET SWINGING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES AND NORTH CENTRAL U.S. THIS CONVECTION
IS WELL BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL JET REMAINING OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
NIGHT WE EXPECT THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER WILL
REMAIN THIS EVENING...WITH SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE HIGHEST
CHANCES WILL LINE UP WITH THE UPPER JET IN A NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST BAND.

ON MONDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
FORECAST ZONES. WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST.
SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY WITH THE COLDER TEMPERATURES ALOFT TO
CREATE SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN CWA. WITH
DRIER AIR COMING IN FROM THE WEST...THE LAYER OF MOISTURE IS
RATHER THIN...AROUND 5-7K FEET...WITH VERY DRY AIR ABOVE. THUS
WILL KEEP THE SHOWER WORDING AND NOT INTRODUCE ANY THUNDER. IT
WILL BE COOLER ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

TRANQUIL WEATHER MONDAY NIGHT INTO MOST OF TUESDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE ALONG WITH A QUASI WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
SMOKE/HAZE ISSUES CARRIED OVER FROM THE SHORT TERM SHOULD AGAIN
CONTINUE IN THE EARLY PART OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THEN INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY DRIER WEATHER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A
MORE ACTIVE PERIOD RESUMES FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. A WARMING TREND
THROUGH THE WEEK IS EXPECTED WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 70S TUESDAY...GRADUALLY RISING TO THE MID AND UPPER 80S OVER THE
WEEKEND.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...A 1021MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WITH A QUASI WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND A LACK OF ANY
SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVES WILL PRODUCE A TRANQUIL WEATHER MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. DRIER MORE COMFORTABLE AIR WILL ENSUE WITH
DEWPOINTS/LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING BETWEEN 45F AND 50F TUESDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER AS MENTIONED ABOVE...SMOKE/HAZE WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY.

TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
DEPARTS AS IT MOVES INTO MINNESOTA ALLOWING FOR A RETURN OF LOW
LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AROUND THE HIGH.
DEWPOINTS WILL BEGIN RISING INTO THE 50S DURING THE DAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN/SOUTH CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN
DURING THE DAY...THEN INTO NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA AND MANITOBA
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT STALLS OVER SOUTHWEST AND INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A LEESIDE SURFACE
LOW/TROUGH ALSO INITIATES OVER SOUTHEAST MONTANA INTO EASTERN
WYOMING TUESDAY. DATA INDICATING MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE LEE SIDE LOW ACROSS SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH RESULTANT ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
DURING THE AFTERNOON. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWS SIMILAR 0-6KM
SHEAR VALUES AT 33KTS...WITH CAPE AROUND 600 J/KG PER GFS AND LESS
THAN 100 J/KG IN THE ECMWF. SOMEWHAT BETTER FORCING ARRIVES TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH THE TAIL END OF A JET STREAK IN SOUTHERN CANADA/NORTHERN
NORTH DAKOTA...AND ANOTHER JET STREAK IN SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. WILL
KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA
TUESDAY NIGHT. WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE A BETTER DAY FOR CHANCES OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED JET STREAK
SLIDING ATOP OF THE NEARLY STALLED FRONT IN SOUTHWEST/SOUTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WANE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONING TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. MID
LEVEL RIDGING/H7-H5...WILL RESULT IN A MAINLY DRY FORECAST. THERE
APPEARS TO BE A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES MOVING INTO THE MID LEVEL
RIDGE...BUT NOT ENOUGH VERTICAL MOTION TO PRODUCE ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION. THE OVERALL TREND BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF AND
SUPERBLEND IS FOR A DRY FORECAST.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MID LEVEL RIDGING SHIFTS EAST WITH A
SERIES OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
FEATURES TO IMPINGE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THIS
SUPPORTS INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 221 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

COLD FRONT HAS MOVE THROUGH ALL TAF SITES. EXPECT A NORTH TO
NORTHWEST FLOW AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH 18Z MONDAY. WILL MENTION
THUNDER AT KJMS THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE WILL LIMIT PRECIPITATION
TO VCSH AT REMAINING TAF SITES. AREAS MVFR CEILINGS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WILL LIFT TO VFR...THEN EXPECT MAINLY VFR CEILINGS
THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...TWH


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