Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 311131
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
631 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015

.UPDATE...

ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015

FINE TUNED POPS FOR THIS MORNING TO BETTER MATCH RADAR IMAGERY AND
HIGH RES GUIDANCE. LATEST MODELS SHOW SHOWERS TAPERING OFF THIS
AFTERNOON SO TRENDED THE FORECAST IN THIS DIRECTION. ALL OTHER
MODIFICATIONS TO THE INHERITED FORECAST WERE MINOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 445 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015

AN EMBEDDED UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE...WITHIN ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT...WILL PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH THE DAY.
ASSOCIATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD AND DIMINISH THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON....HIGHLIGHTED WELL WITHIN THE CURRENT HRRR/RAP13.
ADDITIONALLY...SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BREEZY IN
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS PROJECTED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD...AS WARM AIR ALOFT FILTERS INTO THE STATE FROM THE WEST.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)

ISSUED AT 445 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHT
IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH A GOOD POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER
MONDAY NIGHT WEST INTO CENTRAL...AND AGAIN TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT AREA WIDE.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A MID LEVEL
RIDGE DEVELOPS INTO THE GREAT PLAINS. WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER MY NORTHWEST MONDAY
DAYTIME AS ENERGY TRIES TO MOVE OVER THE RIDGE AXIS. WHILE IT
SHOULD REMAIN DRY FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...OPTED TO KEEP A SLIGHT
CHANCE POP FOR POSSIBLE CONVECTION DEVELOPING WITH PEAK HEATING.
DOES APPEAR WE WILL REMAIN CAPPED WITH LITTLE IF ANY FORCING
MECHANISMS. BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL
LATER MONDAY EVENING AND DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WHEN OUR FLOW
ALOFT BECOMES SOUTHWEST AND THE FIRST STRONG EMBEDDED LEAD WAVE
EJECTS NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. 1-2K J/KG OF MUCAPE
ALONG WITH 0-6KM WIND SHEAR OF 25-40KTS WITH THE S/WV WILL SEE A
THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MY WEST INITIALLY WITH A
FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING CENTRAL. SPC
MAINTAINS MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT ALONG TO WEST OF HIGHWAY
83...WITH THE EASTERN SLIGHT RISK AREA STILL OVER MY SOUTHWEST.
WILL MENTION SEVERE MONDAY NIGHT FOR THE AREAS ALONG TO WEST OF
HIGHWAY 83...AND ALSO MENTION IN THE SFP...HWO...AND WEATHER
STORY. TOOK OUT ALL SEVERE WORDING MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH MONDAY
NIGHT LOOKING MORE LIKELY.

NO BREAK WITH THE NEXT STRONG WAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE. THIS LOOKS LIKE A MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER
EVENT...WITH MUCAPE NEARING 4K J/KG ACROSS MY SOUTH AND PERHAPS AS
HIGH AS 1500 ACROSS MY NORTH. 0-6KM SHEAR IS PROJECTED ANYWHERE
FROM 25-40KTS ACROSS THE REGION. BEST SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE
ACROSS MY SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS WHERE SPC HAS US IN THE SLIGHT
RISK...BUT WITH UNCERTAINTY OPTED TO MENTION THE POSSIBILITY OF
SEVERE STORMS ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FOR
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...ONCE AGAIN IN ALL PRODUCTS.

THEREAFTER SOUTHWEST FLOW IS MAINTAINED WITH A SERIES OF MID
LEVEL WAVES PUSHING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AT LEAST
INTO THURSDAY. EACH WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. PERHAPS A BREAK TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK WHEN
MODELS TRY TO BUILD A MID LEVEL RIDGE INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...THEN ACTIVE AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND WHEN THE 00Z EC/GFS
BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE AS PACIFIC ENERGY ONCE AGAIN MOVES INTO THE
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)

ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015

SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ON AN EASTWARD TRACK ACROSS THE
STATE...DIMINISHING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. VFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. HOWEVER...MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH PASSING SHOWERS.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...AC
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...AC


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