Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 140455
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1155 PM CDT Wed Sep 13 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1155 PM CDT Wed Sep 13 2017

Shortwave ejecting northeast from Bowman County per GOES16 Upper
Level Level Water Vapor Imagery loop. Per HRRR/RAP13 which
initialized the shortwave, continues to move it northeast into
south central ND overnight. Utilized a blend of the HRRR/RAP13 and
increased areal coverage of precipitation for the rest of tonight.
This should continue to help erode the smoky conditions especially
across southwest and south central through the night. Another
shortwave in southeast Montana will also eject east and provide
for a continued chance of showers through mid morning.

UPDATE Issued at 938 PM CDT Wed Sep 13 2017

Scattered thunderstorms are forming in a very limited area
associated with the warm/cold front and surface low just east of
Hettinger this evening. Ingredients for convection continue to be
weak with limited CAPE and Shear. Will keep an area of
thunderstorms tonight along the path of this surface low across
south central North Dakota. Adjusted POPs a bit to follow the Lows
track tonight.

UPDATE Issued at 631 PM CDT Wed Sep 13 2017

The smoke continues to remain as issue this evening. However the
trend has been for improving conditions across the northwest and
if this trend continues there may be much better smoke conditions
on Thursday. Otherwise, scattered light showers remain over the
west with a few isolated lightning strikes southwest.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 302 PM CDT Wed Sep 13 2017

Continued smoke through tonight into Thursday morning
highlights the short term forecast.

Widespread smoke with reduced visibility is favored to continue
tonight into Thursday morning. Surface smoke is expected to
decrease through the day on Thursday with an airmass exchange via
breezy northerly winds. This is favored by the 12 UTC experimental
HRRR surface smoke forecast, and additional experimental surface
smoke forecasts available at www.airquality.weather.gov.

A series of rapidly propagating impulses will continue the
scattered rain shower and isolated thunderstorm threat through
the night that is currently across the west this afternoon. Severe
weather is not expected.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 302 PM CDT Wed Sep 13 2017

Much cooler temperatures, and widespread rainfall Friday into
Saturday highlight the extended forecast.

The 12 UTC global suites continue to remain in good agreement on
widespread rainfall developing Thursday night and continuing
Friday across western and central North Dakota north of the
surface low across Nebraska as the first of two potent waves
propagate across the Northern Plains. A second and stronger wave
will impact the area on Saturday, however, a dry slot is favored
to impact the southwest and south central limiting rainfall
chances for these areas. Overall, widespread one to two inches of
rain are possible for much of the area, with locally higher
amounts along an axis from the southwest into north central.
Widespread highs in the 50s are expected Friday and Saturday. As
cool surface high pressure builds across the area Saturday night
into Sunday, frost may be possible.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1155 PM CDT Wed Sep 13 2017

An area of showers and isolated thunderstorms in southwest ND
will continue to move into south central ND (KBIS) through mid
morning. Showers may make it into KJMS and have a vcsh mention for
by 13z Thursday. Smoky conditions and near mvfr vsbys across
southern ND will gradually improve as showers work there way
through overnight. Elsewhere, vfr cigs/vsbys are expected.
Widespread rain showers will begin to push toward the western
terminals by the end of the TAF period.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...PA
LONG TERM...PA
AVIATION...KS



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