Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 290506
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1206 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1206 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

LATEST SURFACE MAP SHOWS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTH AND
SOUTH WITH TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINTS CLOSING IN ON EACH OTHER. WITH
LIGHT WINDS...PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG WILL LIKELY FOLLOW THE SAME
TREND AS SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING...AND HAVE ADDED THIS
TO THE GRIDDED FORECAST. NUDGED MINIMUM TEMPERATURES DOWN A COUPLE
DEGREES WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS COOLEST FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS
SOUTH TO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...WITH UPPER 40S FORECAST EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A NICELY DEFINED SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTH FROM
NEAR LAKE WINNIPEGOSIS. THIS IS FORECAST TO SPREAD ANOTHER ROUND
OF SCT/BKN CLOUDS BETWEEN 5KFT AND 10KFT DURING THE DAY TUESDAY
OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE NAM EVEN GENERATES SOME MINOR
PRECIPITATION FROM MAX TO LINTON DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
SHORTWAVE SLIDES THROUGH. THE GFS REMAINS DRY. FOR NOW WILL
CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST AND LOOK MORE INTO THIS ONCE THE
ECMWF AND GEM ARRIVE.

UPDATE
ISSUED AT 937 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

A TRANQUIL NIGHT FOR NORTH DAKOTA WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN
CONTROL. MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS CURRENTLY. AN
EMBEDDED S/WV IN OUR NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME...RIGHT NOW ALONG THE
BORDER OF SK/MB JUST TO THE WEST OF NORTHERN LAKE
WINNIPEGOSIS...WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATER
TONIGHT THROUGH THE AM HOURS OF TUESDAY RESULTING IN A SCT-BKN
AREA OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS.

UPDATE
ISSUED AT 641 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS TONIGHT. PREVIOUS FORECAST LOOKS GOOD SO ONLY
ADJUSTED HOURLY ELEMENTS BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES BROAD HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
THE NORTHERN INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES
LOW CENTERED NEAR JAMES BAY WITH RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES. BROAD AREA
OF CLOUD COVER HAS DEVELOPED OVER MUCH OF THE STATE.

FOR TONIGHT...QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS REGION REMAINS UNDER
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE LOW/MID LEVEL
MOISTURE LINGERING AROUND THE AREA...SO WILL KEEP CLOUD COVER UP A
BIT.

ON TUESDAY...PATTERN REMAINS SIMILAR WITH UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST
AND LOW OVER JAMES BAY...KEEPING QUIET WEATHER OVER THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO POSSIBLY A BIT WARMER THAN
TODAY...THOUGH STILL BELOW AVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

BLOCKING FLOW CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WITH A LARGE AND PERSISTENT LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN
NORTH AMERICA (HUDSON BAY LOW) AND A RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST. THIS
WILL LEAVE THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE H500 RIDGE
IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND
COOL AND DRY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS AND MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHTS...WITH
LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S AND HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY: THE MODELS ARE DEPICTING A STRONGER SHORTWAVE
MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH AN ASSOCIATED
SURFACE COLD FRONT. THESE FEATURES HAVE A BETTER POTENTIAL FOR
HELPING SET OFF SOME SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS...AND HAVE A SLIGHT
CHANCE MENTION FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

MONDAY: THERE IS A HINT OF THE WESTERN RIDGE BEGINNING TO BREAK DOWN
ON MONDAY...WITH MODELS DEPICTING MORE OF A WEST-TO-EAST ZONAL FLOW.
CONSENSUS GUIDANCE INDICATES A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDER ON
MONDAY.

TEMPERATURES SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY APPEAR TO BE SIMILAR TO THAT OF
LATE THIS WEEK...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S AND HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1206 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

VFR CIGS/VSBYS NEXT 24HR. SCT/BKN CIGS BETWEEN 5KFT AND 10KFT CAN BE
EXPECTED AT KMOT/KBIS TUESDAY. LIGHT WINDS LESS THAN 10KT THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...KS





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