Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 101432
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
932 AM CDT THU APR 10 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 932 AM CDT THU APR 10 2014

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING WITH A
WESTERLY SURFACE FLOW. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS IN LINE WITH ONLY
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FOR SKY COVER.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 621 AM CDT THU APR 10 2014

LOW PRESSURE ACROSS ONTARIO AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER MONTANA WILL
COMBINE TODAY FOR SOME GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE NORTH
CENTRAL THROUGH EAST. CURRENT INDICATIONS THE WINDS WILL BE
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. CURRENTLY SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH
SOME MIDDLE CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE NORTHWEST. CURRENT FORECAST
TRENDING WELL. JUST UPDATED CLOUD COVER WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT THU APR 10 2014

NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW INTO NORTH DAKOTA TODAY WILL RESULT IN COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY CONDITIONS. COUPLE SHORTWAVES LINED UP
FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA...ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN...WILL PUSH INTO
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
SCT TO BKN MID CLOUDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE SHORTWAVES. A SPOTTY
SHOWER IS POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN IN THE
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. OVERALL THOUGH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS. HIGHS
TODAY WILL BE IN THE 50S...WITH AROUND 60 SOUTH. BRISK NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH...EXCEPT 20 TO 35 MPH FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS
SOUTH INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT 30 TO 35.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT THU APR 10 2014

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE THE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT PERIOD AS MODELS SHOW SOME SHARP DIFFERENCES IN THE LOW LEVEL
THERMAL PROFILES. THE GFS SUPPORTS MUCH COLDER AIR AND THEREFORE
MORE SNOW. THE NAM/ECMWF/SREF MODELS SHOW LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES
MORE CONSISTENT WITH EACH OTHER AND WARMER AND NOT AS WET. THE GFS
HAS LARGE H850-H700 FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING AND THEREFORE A LARGE
OMEGA ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. SUCH LARGE VERTICAL MOTIONS
QUICKLY SATURATE THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND PRODUCE A BULLS EYE
PRECIP ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA AROUND 06Z. WILLING TO DISCOUNT
THE GFS IN THIS SITUATION...AND THE RESULT WILL BE RAIN VS SNOW
INITIALLY FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT EVENTUALITY COLD AIR FILTERS IN
AND THE RAIN/SNOW WILL MIX THEN CHANGE TO SNOW SATURDAY MORNING.
SOME ACCUMULATIONS APPEAR LIKELY BY SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING
AROUND AN INCH OR SO ACROSS THE FAR NORTH CENTRAL. THIS WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY A LARGE AND COOL NEARLY FULL LATITUDINAL H500 TROUGH
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN US AND CANADA THAT WILL BRING MUCH COOLER
WEATHER WITH SOME SPOTTY PRECIPITATION FROM SUNDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 932 AM CDT THU APR 10 2014

VFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH SCT/BKN MID CLOUDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
BREEZY TO WINDY NORTHWEST WINDS...15KT TO 32KT ACROSS THE
AERODROMES THROUGH 01Z FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT THU APR 10 2014

A FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE CANNONBALL RIVER AT
BREIEN...WHICH BEGINS FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH FLOWS FROM SNOWMELT
RUNOFF FROM THE UPPER PORTIONS OF THE CEDAR AND CANNONBALL BASINS
ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE THE CANNONBALL AT BREIEN TO RISE ABOVE MINOR
FLOOD STAGE FRIDAY MORNING.

ELSEWHERE...WHILE HIGH FLOWS ARE NOTED ON THE HEART RIVER ACROSS
EASTERN STARK AND INTO MORTON COUNTY...WATER IS BEING ATTENUATED
BY HEART BUTTE DAM AND NO IMPACTS ARE ANTICIPATED. FINALLY...FLOOD
WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR THE SOURIS RIVER NEAR TOWNER AND THE WILLOW
CREEK NEAR WILLOW CITY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...TWH
HYDROLOGY...AYD






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