Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 130725
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
125 AM CST Sat Jan 13 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 121 AM CST Sat Jan 13 2018

Little change with this forecast update outside of observed trends
through 07 UTC. Thus far Hazen has been the coldest location with
a low of -35, followed by Golden Valley at -32.

UPDATE Issued at 943 PM CST Fri Jan 12 2018

Made some minor adjustments to sky cover over the southwest.
Otherwise no changes to the going forecast. Arctic remains over
the area tonight, with dangerous to life threatening wind chills
through Saturday morning.

UPDATE Issued at 625 PM CST Fri Jan 12 2018

High pressure remains situated over western and central North
Dakota tonight. Some clouds remain over the southwest, which is
keeping temperatures in the zero to 5 below range. Otherwise
temperatures are mainly 10 to 20 below zero already across most of
western and central ND. No significant updates this period only
some minor adjustments to sky cover over the southwest based on
latest radar and mesoscale model forecasts.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)

Issued at 245 PM CST Fri Jan 12 2018

Very cold temperatures and wind chills continue to highlight the
short term period.

Currently, strong northwest flow aloft with a weak embedded mid
level wave over southwest North Dakota. Areas of light snow and
clouds over my southwest and far south central continues to
shrink in coverage as the mid level wave starts to exit southeast
and as strong Arctic high pressure builds south into the Northern
Plains. Temperatures today warmed several degrees more than
expected, though still expect a rapid drop off as darkness
approaches.

~1045MB Surface high sets up over the southeast corner of North
Dakota 09-12Z overnight/Saturday morning. Historically this is an
ideal location for a big temp drop off for central Nodak.
Boundary layer temperatures (900-925MB) at 12Z will be around
minus 20C. Combined with light winds, a clear sky, and a fresh
snowpack, this will favor very frigid Saturday morning lows. A
deeper fresh snowpack, perhaps double what is out there now, would
be more ideal for a big temp drop off, though there is still
several inches of new snow. Past dates where KBIS hit -40F had
tad colder boundary layer temperatures and a deeper fresh snow
pack. Still, several things outlined above are lining up so went
ahead and lowered lows for tonight in the -30 to -35F range
across much of central ND.

For wind chill headlines, we did expand the wind chill warning
across the James River Valley region. Kept the advisory going
farther west as we will either only touch warning criteria (-40F)
for an ob or two, or the winds will be calm.

Strong mid level WAA on Saturday along with some mixing potential
as southerly return winds increase will see temperatures rising to
above zero along to west of Highway 83, to as high as near 20F in
the southwest. My east will likely remain below zero.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)

Issued at 245 PM CST Fri Jan 12 2018

Another embedded wave moves southeast across the general area
Saturday/Saturday evening bringing a chance for snow to the
southwest. POPs were tapered southward a bit based on latest model
trends. Temperatures Sunday will be a bit milder with highs
ranging from 10 above around the Turtle Mountains to near 30 above
southwest. Sfc trough and a more potent embedded S/WV pushing
south from Canada will bring a chance for light snow to the
region on Sunday, followed by another Arctic plunge. Wind chill
headlines will likely be needed Sunday night through Monday night
due to this cold airmass. After Tuesday, models continue to
strongly hint at a warming trend arriving mid to late next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 121 AM CST Sat Jan 13 2018

VFR conditions to begin the 06Z TAF period, although local MVFR
visibility in fog is possible at KBIS/KISN tonight into Saturday
morning. As warmer southerly flow returns Saturday, MVFR clouds
will start to spread west to east into western ND. Latest model
runs indicate MVFR ceilings moving into KDIK around 18z and
KBIS/KMOT around 20z-23z, and VFR ceilings at KISN by 17z.

Light winds this morning under cold arctic high pressure will become
southerly later on Saturday. Just beyond this 24-hr TAF forecast
another arctic cold front late Saturday night/Sunday morning will
bring gusty northwest winds.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Chill Advisory until noon CST /11 AM MST/ today for
NDZ017>020-031>035-040>046-050-051.

Wind Chill Warning until noon CST today for NDZ001>005-009>013-
021>023-025-036-037-047-048.

&&

$$

UPDATE...PA
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...JV/PA



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