Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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787
FXUS63 KBIS 260910
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
410 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 325 AM CDT Thu May 26 2016

Early this morning an upper level low continued to spin across
northeast Montana as a surface low and trough were centered
across the North Dakota/Canadian border. Along and north of the
trough light showers continued. Just behind the trough low stratus
and fog have developed. The HRRR indicates this fog and stratus
will continue this morning and scatter out by the afternoon. As
the upper level low begins pushing eastward today additional
showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop across western
North Dakota and spread eastward. Instability is forecast to be
much less than what we experienced on Wednesday. However, steep
lapse rates and moderate forcing could generate some stronger
thunderstorms this afternoon. No severe storms are anticipated,
but some small hail and gusty winds can`t be ruled out across
central North Dakota.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 325 AM CDT Thu May 26 2016

Southwesterly flow will continue across the Northern Plains through
early next week. This will bring a daily chance for showers and
thunderstorms. A closed low is forecast to park right over North
Dakota by the middle of next week. This again will bring good
chances for widespread showers and thunderstorms. Models are
having a hard time resolving individual waves, so specific timing
of thunderstorms remains challenging.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1223 AM CDT Thu May 26 2016

VFR conditions are expected at KDIK/KBIS/KJMS. MVFR cigs are
expected at KISN and KMOT during the morning hours. Showers and
isolated thunderstorms are possible at KISN late this morning and
afternoon.

&&

.BIS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...AJ



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