Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 011757
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1257 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1256 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

LOWERED PRECIP CHANCES FOR EARLY AFTERNOON WITH NO SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT EVIDENT. SEEING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTH
CENTRAL MONTANA INTO SASKATCHEWAN...ASSOCIATED WITH THE ANTICIPATED
SHORTWAVE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. MODELS STILL DEPICT INCREASING
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM...SO KEPT
MENTION OF DEVELOPING SHOWERS/THUNDER FOR MID AND LATE AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1009 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

REDUCED VISIBILITIES FROM FOG WERE IMPROVING THE PAST COUPLE OF
HOURS ACROSS NORTHWESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. LINGERING
LOW VISIBILITIES AT CROSBY ARE LIKELY VERY LOCALIZED AND WILL BE
ALLOWING THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AT 10 AM CDT.

OTHERWISE LOWERED PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING...BUT
KEPT THE SCATTERED MENTION FOR THE AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACH OF
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IMPULSES AND AN APPROACHING JET STREAK TO ENHANCE
INSTABILITY. OTHERWISE CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK.

UPDATE
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

TRIMMED POPS A BIT AND INCREASED WHERE RADAR INDICATES
PRECIPITATION. OTHERWISE THE INHERITED FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK
THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

FOGGY CONDITIONS DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM.

CALM WINDS AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE LED TO WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG...MAINLY NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 2. HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 15Z FOR THESE
AREAS...AS HRRR ITERATIONS SUGGEST THAT LOW VISIBILITY WILL
LINGER UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING.

SYNOPTICALLY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE WEST COAST
WILL KEEP THE FORECAST AREA IN A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME. A WEAK
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PROPAGATE SOUTHEAST FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA
AND ALBERTA...FLATTENING THE EASTERN SLOPE OF THE RIDGE. THIS WAVE
SHOULD ARRIVE INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY EARLY EVENING ON
WEDNESDAY...TRIGGERING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. AT JET STREAM LEVEL...A 70 KNOT SPEED MAX WILL
APPROACH SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH THE ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE.
THIS ORIENTATION SHOULD PLACE MUCH OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA IN THE
LEFT EXIT REGION...FURTHER PROMOTING CONVECTION. THAT BEING
SAID...FORECAST SURFACE FEATURES DO NOT SHOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF
FORCING...SO MAGNITUDE OF COVERAGE IS STILL IN QUESTION. 00Z NAM
FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR 500-1500 J/KG OF
MLCAPE COLLOCATED WITH 35-45 KNOTS OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR IN THE
WEST. THEREFORE...ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM IN SAID ENVIRONMENT WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND/OR
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. DUE TO COVERAGE UNCERTAINTY...HAVE
DECIDED TO LEAVE SEVERE WORDING OUT OF THE GRIDS AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)

ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. FOR THURSDAY...LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL BE SLOW TO PUSH SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA SO WE WILL ONCE
AGAIN SEE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY THURSDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON WITH A ANOTHER S/WV MOVING ACROSS THE REGION...BEST
CHANCES SOUTHEAST NEAR THE STALLED SFC TROUGH. WE THEN TREND
MAINLY DRY THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY FINALLY MOVES OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST
REPLACED BY SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW OVER THE DAKOTAS.

DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE STILL FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST
ACROSS CANADA THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. AS THE UPPER LOW
CROSSES THE ALBERTA ROCKIES SATURDAY...OUR FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS
TO ZONAL WITH LOW/MID LEVEL FLOW SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY INCREASING
AHEAD OF A STRONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE UPPER
LOW OFF TO OUR NORTHWEST. THIS WILL PROMOTE STRONG WAA WITH HIGHS
SATURDAY WARMING BACK INTO THE LOW 80S TO LOW 90S. AS THE UPPER
LOW MOVES EAST ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA SAT NIGHT - SUNDAY
NIGHT...STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA
AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A
FEW STRONGER STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN AGAIN
DURING THE DAY EARLY SUNDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...WHEN AND WHERE
MODELS SHOW THE BEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR COUPLED TOGETHER.
SATURDAY AFTERNOON MORE UNCERTAIN WITH A CAP LIKELY IN PLACE AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY...BUT POSSIBLY A STORM OR TWO FAR
NORTHWEST NEAR THE SFC TROUGH.

SECONDARY COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL SEE HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 70S FOR MONDAY. WARMING TREND TOWARDS MID-WEEK AS
RIDGING TRIES TO REBUILD ACROSS THE ROCKIES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1256 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

ALL TAF SITES SHOULD BECOME VFR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. VFR CIGS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND INTO
THURSDAY WITH CHANCES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...ZH
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...JV



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