Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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994
FXUS63 KBIS 221743
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1243 PM CDT MON AUG 22 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Mon Aug 22 2016

Other than to blend to observed trends through 17 UTC, the warm
and dry forecast for today remains on track across western and
central North Dakota.

UPDATE Issued at 939 AM CDT Mon Aug 22 2016

The forecast for today remains well on track and blended to
observed trends through 14 UTC.

UPDATE Issued at 631 AM CDT Mon Aug 22 2016

Quiet weather continues this morning. Only change to forecast was
to increase cloud cover a bit over the southwest where a little
patch of mid-level clouds has developed. Expect these to
dissipate through the morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 257 AM CDT Mon Aug 22 2016

Highlight today will be very warm to hot conditions across western
and central ND. This will be followed by chances of showers and
thunderstorms northwest, and also in portions of south central, in
particular between Bismarck and Jamestown.

Latest water vapor imagery depicts an upper low circulating over
south central British Columbia early this morning. Farther downstream,
warm air advection resulting in rising height fields/increasing
thicknesses and surface pressure falls, were taking place in
eastern Montana and into western/central ND.

For today, building heights leading to a transitory ridge and
850mb temperatures +26c to +28C will result in ample sunshine and
highs between 90f and 96f. Upper 80s will stretch from the Turtle
mountains south into the southern James River Valley. By 00z
Tuesday, a surface cold front will exit eastern Montana and begin
to impinge into western ND through 06z Tuesday.

For tonight, the aforementioned closed upper low slowly progresses
eastward into western Saskatchewan by 12z Tuesday. Southwest flow
aloft with a couple of shortwaves and the approach of the surface
cold front west into central ND, will provide enough forcing in
the northwest, north central, and a portion of south central for a
chance of showers and thunderstorms. Strongest storm potential
would favor the south central, particularly the northern James
River Valley. A strengthening low level southerly jet will engage
across south central ND this evening, with HRRR and NAM both
showing consistency with enough forcing resulting in an area of
showers and thunderstorms initiating around 03z-06z between
Bismarck and Jamestown. This then shifts into the northern James
River Valley by 06z Tuesday. Gridded forecast had this handled
well with no adjustments needed at this time. Dry conditions can
be expected elsewhere.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 257 AM CDT Mon Aug 22 2016

Surface cold front pushes into central ND 12z Tuesday, with the
leading edge of the 1000-700mb thickness packing stretching from
Selfridge to Bismarck into Harvey. Cold air advection and breezy
northwest winds commence behind the front. The cold front
eventually pushes across the James River Valley by 21z Tuesday.
Chances of precipitation favor the north central where better
forcing with the approach from the upper low occurs. A slight
chance in the southern James River Valley associated with the cold
front.

As the upper level low scoots across southern Saskatchewan and
Manitoba Tuesday night and Wednesday, a secondary cold front will
sweep through with a slight chance of thunderstorms mostly in the
north Wednesday. Breezy and much cooler Wednesday with highs in
the mid 60s to low 70s.

Thursday will be a dry day with the upper flow transitioning to
zonal but remaining cool with highs in the lower 70s across
western and central ND.

Another shortwave trough is forecast to push through Thursday
night and Friday, producing a chance of showers and thunderstorms
mostly across southwest and south central ND. The shortwave exits
the James River Valley Friday evening.

Models show a dry day Saturday with possible low sporadic chances
of precipiation later Sunday into Monday, but nothing widespread
at this time as there will be plenty of dry time. Expect a warming
trend from the mid 70s Friday to the mid 80s Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Mon Aug 22 2016

VFR conditions are forecast for the 18 UTC TAF cycle across
western and central North Dakota. Isolated to scattered
thunderstorms are possible across northern North Dakota tonight
into Tuesday morning. Low level wind shear is forecast at
KBIS/KJMS late tonight into Tuesday morning with strong winds
expected just off the surface.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 257 AM CDT Mon Aug 22 2016

For Tuesday afternoon...increased fire danger is anticipated
behind a departing cold front across far southwest North Dakota.
Dry fuels, particularly in the western portions of Golden Valley,
Slope, and Bowman counties, combined with sustained northwest
winds of 20 mph, and minimum relative humidity of around 20 percent,
may result in near critical fire weather conditions. Thus a Fire
Weather Watch will be issued, valid for Tuesday afternoon into
early Tuesday evening.

&&

.BIS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
evening for NDZ031-040-043.

&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...AYD
FIRE WEATHER...KS



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