


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND
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826 FXUS63 KBIS 251136 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 636 AM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and thunderstorms today, with isolated strong to severe thunderstorms possible mainly over southwestern North Dakota. Isolated severe thunderstorms possible again across the far west on Thursday. - Chances are increasing for scattered severe thunderstorms on Friday with all hazards possible. && .UPDATE... Issued at 636 AM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025 Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms continue over parts of the forecast area, with the most organized thunderstorms in the southwest/south central near the ND/SD border. An occasional strong storm continues to develop, though severe weather remains unlikely this morning. Adjusted Pops a bit, otherwise the forecast remains on track. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 446 AM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025 An active late June pattern continues with southwesterly flow aloft being dominant through the remainder of the workweek, followed by more zonal to northwesterly flow aloft this weekend. There are low threats for severe weather today, mainly in the southwest, and Thursday, mainly in the far west. However, the highest chances for severe weather this week are on Friday when the Gulf opens and mixed layer dewpoints from 65 to near 70 degrees stream into the state, especially the eastern two thirds. Currently, scattered showers and thunderstorms are present in southwestern ND. With around 45 kts of 0 to 6 km bulk shear, these storms have briefly become strong with small hail up to the size of pennies and observed wind gusts from around 40 to 50 mph. However, a general lack of instability has prevented them from becoming severe. Instability doesn`t begin to increase until later this morning, and as is usually the case, more so later this afternoon. Overall, the most favorable environment appears to be in eastern Montana, and to a lesser extent in western North Dakota late this afternoon, especially the southwest where higher shear is expected to persist. As the sun begins to set, instability decreases rapidly, while shear is progged to decrease as well. Should any severe storms develop, the primary threats for today include ping pong ball sized hail and wind gusts up to 60 mph. For Thursday, instability is expected to be higher in western ND than today. However, shear is also likely to be weaker. With skinny CAPE soundings and a lack of strong shear, pulsing severe storms seem the likeliest outcome should any severe weather develop. The current SPC outlook only pings the far northwest in a marginal, likely due to capping issues over much of the North Dakota side of the border and a lack of a good forcing mechanism. Still, could foresee a few isolated strong to severe storms in any of the western two tiers or so of counties in ND. As a result, believe the primary threats are quarter sized hail and 60 mph wind gusts. Friday remains the day this week where severe weather is most likely. Surface low pressure over the Rockies combined with high pressure over the southeastern US will open the Gulf of America and allow mixed layer dewpoints up to 70 degrees to stream into the state, especially the eastern two thirds. This will result in a buoyant atmosphere with soundings showing fat CAPE profiles across central parts of the state. There may be some capping issues in eastern North Dakota. However, shortwave energy within southwesterly flow aloft, and a passing warm frontal boundary with trailing cold frontal boundary, should be able to overcome capping for central parts of the state, and possibly the east as well. Shear may not be as strong as last Friday with around 40 to 45 kts progged to coincide with the highest instability. However, that is more than adequate to produce very large hail and strong wind gusts. A tornado or two is possible as well. The severe threat continues into Saturday mainly for eastern North Dakota and possibly the south central east of the Missouri River. However, will want to see more clarity with the Friday system and the timing of the frontal boundary first. If the frontal boundary has already passed through the forecast area, then with a more zonal flow system aloft following Friday`s event, a good forcing mechanism may be hard to find. Conditions are then favored to become mostly dry to start next week. Beyond severe weather chances, the two other things worth mentioning are temperatures and smoke aloft. In regard to smoke, elevated smoke is possible across the state today. However, with mostly cloudy skies present and forecast to remain across most of the state, that will be unnoticeable most of the day for most locations. Temperatures today will be below average. A warming trend is then on tap to finish out the workweek with temperatures reaching a crescendo on Friday before a slight cooling trend is favored for the weekend and into early next week. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 636 AM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025 Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected through the period, though should start ending in the west and north overnight. Showers are currently present just west of KBIS with thunderstorms to the southwest near the ND/SD border. Continue using TEMPO and PROB30 groups in the TAFs as needed depending on confidence and timing in regard to any showers and thunderstorms. MVFR/IFR ceilings are expected to accompany these showers and thunderstorms, especially in southern ND through the afternoon. IFR/LIFR stratus is then expected to expand further north tonight. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...Telken DISCUSSION...Telken AVIATION...Telken