Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 230814
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
314 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES TROUGH STRETCHING NEAR THE
ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN BORDER INTO EASTERN MONTANA WITH LOW SITUATED
NEAR THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS/WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS LOW SPINNING OVER THE BLACK HILLS WHERE BANDS OF
SHOWERS WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO WRAP AROUND THE
SYSTEM.

FOR TODAY INTO TONIGHT...UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO WORK
EAST/NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY...SLOWLY OPENING UP AS IT
PUSHES THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. ALTHOUGH MOST
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OVER SOUTH
DAKOTA...ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL WRAP INTO OUR AREA TO BRING A FEW
SHOWERS INTO PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90. ENOUGH INSTABILITY
EXISTS TO POSSIBLY BRING A FEW CLAPS OF THUNDER THOUGH ANY STORMS
SHOULD REMAIN WEAK. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY CLEAR TOWARDS THE
NORTHWEST...WITH CLOUD COVER INCREASING TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST
CLOSER TO THE LOW. THIS WILL BRING A VARIABILITY IN TEMPERATURES
WITH HIGHS PUSHING 80 ALONG THE MONTANA BORDER...WHILE MUCH OF THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 60S. UPPER WAVE
WILL LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT...WITH PRECIPITATION TAPERING
OFF THIS EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL LEAD
TO DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE A BIT SLOWER WITH REGARDS TO AN UPPER
LEVEL LONG WAVE TROUGH/LOW LIFTING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. FOR NOW CONTINUED WITH SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS SUNDAY...INCREASING TO CHANCE POPS MONDAY AS THE LOW/TROUGH
LIFTS CLOSER TO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1203 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

ISOLD -SHRA/-TSRA ALONG WITH LCL MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
PTNS OF SOUTH CENTRAL INTO SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA MAINLY THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...JJS




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