Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 061121
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
621 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.UPDATE...

ISSUED AT 621 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

MORNING FORECAST IS ON TRACK...WITH NO CHANGES WITH THIS ISSUANCE.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE SLIGHT CHANCES
OF RAIN SHOWERS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES WITH SMOKE FROM CANADIAN
FIRES.

CURRENTLY...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM A LOW OVER HUDSON BAY
SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR...ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND
INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA. MEANWHILE A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS
CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN AND WESTERN MONTANA.
SMOKE WAS REDUCING VISIBILITIES OVER MOST OF NORTH DAKOTA. RAIN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT WERE SOUTH
AND EAST OF OUR AREA. AT UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS
OVER HUDSON BAY...WITH A TRAILING TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD
INTO MONTANA. ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER EASTERN MONTANA WERE LIKELY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

TODAY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST ACROSS NORTH
DAKOTA. WILL MENTION SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS. BY LATE
AFTERNOON THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE IN
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...AND END THE CHANCES FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS.
THE SURFACE HIGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO NORTH
DAKOTA...SETTLING OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS BY TUESDAY MORNING.
EXPECTING NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE STATE TODAY...AND WILL MENTION
AREAS OF SMOKE TODAY AND TONIGHT AS WELL.

LOOKING AT COOLER CONDITIONS TODAY AND LESS HUMID. HIGHS TODAY
SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD
DIP INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)

ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING EAST ON TUESDAY REPLACED
WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE UNDER THIS FLOW REGIME WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TUESDAY AFTERNOON SOUTHWEST EXPANDING NORTH
AND EAST INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. FORCING WILL BE PROVIDED BY EMBEDDED
MID LEVEL IMPULSES SLIDING THROUGH IN A WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
FURTHER SUPPORT WILL BE IN PLACE WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
(RER) OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET MOVING INTO SOUTHWESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.

FORCING UNDERNEATH THE RER OF THE UPPER JET EXPANDS EASTWARD
ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY NIGHT...ALONG WITH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DEVELOPING FROM SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA NORTHEAST INTO THE
DEVILS LAKE BASIN REGION. FORCING ALOFT REMAINS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE WANING WED NIGHT...WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY VERY
SLOWLY MIGRATING SOUTH BEFORE WASHING OUT EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE CONCENTRATED ALONG THE
FRONTAL ZONE THROUGH THIS PERIOD. LATEST 12Z MODELS STILL PORTRAY
0-6KM SHEAR VALUES 25-35KTS...WITH CAPE UNDER 1K J/KG. THUS NOT
EXPECTED A SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK...BUT AN ISOLATED STRONGER
STORM DEF POSSIBLE.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES DECREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONING TO MORE ZONAL THURSDAY. WILL CONTINUE
WITH A DRY FORECAST THURSDAY DAYTIME. AFTERWARDS SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT DEVELOPS ALLOWING EMBEDDED S/WV`S TO APPROACH THE HIGH
PLAINS REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE POP
FOR THE WEST. FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL SEE AN INCREASINGLY
ACTIVE PERIOD DEVELOPING AS MID LEVEL RIDGING SHIFTS EAST ALLOWING
FOR A SERIES OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
FEATURES TO IMPINGE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND
WILL SUPPORT INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...WITH
CHANCES FOR STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION ALSO INCREASING.

A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEK IS EXPECTED WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S TUESDAY...GRADUALLY RISING TO THE MID AND
UPPER 80S OVER THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH A FEW LOWER 90S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)

ISSUED AT 621 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN SMOKE WILL BE THE BIGGEST CONCERN FOR THE
12Z TAF PERIOD. SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA REPORT VFR VISIBILITIES...BUT AT 7SM OR 9SM. KMOT AND KJMS
WERE REPORTING MVFR VSBYS DUE TO SMOKE. THINKING MOST AREAS WILL
SEE IMPROVING VSBYS DURING THE DAY...BUT KEPT 4SM-6SM VSBYS DURING
THE DAYTIME HOURS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS ALL
TAF SITES TODAY...TOO LOW TO MENTION IN TAFS.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...JV



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