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000
FXUS63 KBIS 101241
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
641 AM CST TUE DEC 10 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 633 AM CST TUE DEC 10 2013

UPDATE MAINLY FOR EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURE TRENDS. INCREASING
CLOUDS AND SOUTHWEST WINDS RESULTED IN RISING TEMPS ACROSS WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. ANOTHER SURGE OF ARCTIC
AIR IS ON TRACK FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TEMPERATURES FALL IN THE
NORTH. AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW IS EXPECTED TODAY SOUTHWEST...ALONG
WITH WINDS GUSTING TO 35 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT BLOWING
AND DRIFTING SNOW...WITH VISIBILITIES BELOW A MILE AT TIMES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CST TUE DEC 10 2013

THE HIGHLIGHT OF THE SHORT TERM IS AGAIN WIND CHILLS...LIGHT SNOW
AND BLOWING SNOW.

THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR THIS MORNING HAS BEEN TRIMMED TO THE
TURTLE MOUNTAINS AND THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY THROUGH STUTSMAN
COUNTY TO REFLECT THE LATEST OBSERVED WIND CHILL TRENDS THROUGH 930
UTC. THIS ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 18 UTC. THEREAFTER...ANOTHER
WIND CHILL ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT...AS THE 00 UTC GUIDANCE SUITE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON ANOTHER REINFORCING...BUT SHORT LIVED...ARCTIC
AIRMASS FOR TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD WIND CHILLS TO 35 BELOW ARE POSSIBLE.

PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THIS ARCTIC AIRMASS...A WEAK CLIPPER WILL
PROPAGATE ALONG THE LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS EASTERN
MONTANA INTO SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. AROUND ONE
INCH OF NEW SNOW IS POSSIBLE FROM TROTTERS...THROUGH
MEDORA...BOWMAN AND HETTINGER. THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD IS BY FAR
NOT AS STRONG AS YESTERDAY. THAT SAID...GOOD ISALLOBARIC FORCING
AND COLD AIR ADVECTION COUPLED WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
SHOULD RESULT IN WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KTS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AS
THE PRESSURE RISE BUBBLE PROPAGATES THROUGH. THIS WILL CAUSE
PATCHY TO AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW WITH LOCALLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES.
AT THIS TIME A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NOT
ANTICIPATED...BUT CONDITIONS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CST TUE DEC 10 2013

THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD CONCERNS
DIFFICULTIES IN TIMING NUMEROUS WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS.

CONSENSUS AMONG THE VARIOUS MEDIUM RANGE MODELS...INCLUDING THE
10/00Z GEM/GFS/ECMWF...FAVORS NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH PERIODS OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY DIVING SOUTH INTO THE REGION.
THE FIRST PERIOD WILL LIKELY BE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS UNDER AN INCH FAVORED
ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

THURSDAY WILL PROVIDE A TEMPORARY REPRIEVE FROM THE BITTERLY COLD
CONDITIONS...WITH RELATIVELY MILD WESTERLY FLOW BOOSTING AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES INTO THE TEENS AND 20S OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. ANOTHER COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE
INTO THE STATE THURSDAY NIGHT...SUPPORTING ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT
SNOW. CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY...AND
PERHAPS INTO SATURDAY/SUNDAY AS WELL.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN VERY COLD THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH A MODEST WARM-UP POSSIBLE BY NEXT MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 633 AM CST TUE DEC 10 2013

ISOLATED MVFR STRATUS DECKS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. THEREAFTER...ANOTHER CLIPPER
SYSTEM WILL YIELD IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW AT KDIK
AND KISN THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR CONDITIONS IN STRATUS...FLURRIES AND
BLOWING SNOW ARE FORECAST AT KBIS...KMOT AND KJMS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR NDZ004-005-012-013-
023-025-037.

&&

$$

UPDATE/LONG TERM...RP KINNEY
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...AYD