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000
FXUS63 KBIS 100249
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
949 PM CDT SUN MAR 9 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 949 PM CDT SUN MAR 9 2014

NO MAJOR UPDATES WERE MADE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. ONLY ADJUSTED
THE HOURLY SENSIBLE WEATHER GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT OBS/TRENDS. THE
UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 657 PM CDT SUN MAR 9 2014

VERY MILD TEMPERATURES CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH READINGS GENERALLY FROM THE 40S
NORTH TO THE 50S SOUTH. THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR TONIGHT
WILL BE THE TEMPERATURES.

SHORT-RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO PROG 850MB WINDS AROUND 35 KNOTS
OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT. THE TURBULENT FLOW
ALOFT SHOULD MAINTAIN A MOSTLY COUPLED BOUNDARY LAYER TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD THEREFORE HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME RADIATING THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER...COLD AIR ADVECTION BEGINS TO ENTER NORTHERN
NORTH DAKOTA BY 12Z MONDAY.

AS A RESULT OF THE RELATIVELY COUPLED BOUNDARY LAYER TONIGHT...INCREASED
FIRST PERIOD OVERNIGHT LOWS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-94 BY A CATEGORY
(3 DEGREES). HOWEVER...GIVEN THE EXPECTED COLD AIR ADVECTION
NORTH AROUND SUNRISE...KEPT THE OVERNIGHT LOWS ABOUT THE SAME FOR
THE AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2. THE REMAINING FORECAST
ELEMENTS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT SUN MAR 9 2014

A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS MOVING EAST THROUGH THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...ACCOMPANIED BY LITTLE MORE THAN A WIND SHIFT. OTHER
THAN THE EXTREME NORTHEAST...AFTERNOON TEMPS HAVE RISEN INTO THE 40S TO NEAR
60 DEGREES SOUTHWEST...RESULTING IN ADDITIONAL MELTING OF THE
LINGERING SNOW PACK NORTH AND EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. LOOKING
AHEAD TO TONIGHT...THE NAM IS THE MOST BULLISH OF THE SHORT RANGE
MODELS IN BRINGING INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND FOG/DRIZZLE
POTENTIAL INTO THE FORECAST AREA...WHILE THE HRRR/RAP/SREF ARE
LESS AGGRESSIVE. DO TO THE CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCE IN MODELS...WILL LEAVE
MENTION OF DRIZZLE OUT FOR NOW...AND AM BANKING AGAIN ON THE
WESTERLY WINDS TO STAY UP AND PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG
DESPITE ANOTHER DAY OF SNOW MELT. WILL MENTION PATCHY FOG LATE IN THE
MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY UP TO GARRISON...AS WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
SLIGHTLY LIGHTER.

FOR MONDAY...EXPECT ANOTHER REASONABLY MILD DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
30S AND 40S...BY AFTERNOON...LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO
THE FAR SOUTHWEST...WITH PRECIPITATION CHANGE OVER TO SNOW DELAYED
UNTIL LATER MONDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT SUN MAR 9 2014

THE MAIN CONCERN EARLY IN THE EXTENDED IS THE CHANCE OF RAIN AND
SNOW IN THE SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE IN
BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY WITH PRECIPITATION PLACEMENT...AND ALSO THE
PLACEMENT IS SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH THAN YESTERDAY`S MODELS
SUGGESTED.

ON MONDAY THE LEADING EDGE OF THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE ROCKIES WILL REACH THE
DAKOTAS...AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER WYOMING/SOUTH
DAKOTA/NEBRASKA IN RESPONSE. BY MONDAY NIGHT THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CONTINUES DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...BUT
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WITH THE TROUGH IS WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS WELL. MEANWHILE SURFACE WINDS
OVER THE DAKOTAS BECOME NORTHERLY AS THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO TO
DEEPEN OVER NEBRASKA/KANSAS. THIS WILL ALLOW COOLER AIR FROM THE
NORTH TO INTRUDE INTO NORTH DAKOTA AS WELL AS SET UP AN OVERRUNNING
PRECIPITATION SCENARIO OVER SOUTHERN MONTANA/WYOMING/SOUTH DAKOTA
THAT WILL ALSO REACH INTO SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF NORTH DAKOTA.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ALL RAIN EARLY MONDAY EVENING...THEN
TRANSITION TO SNOW AS COLD AIR INTRUDES FROM THE NORTH. EXPECTING
AROUND 1/2 INCH TO ABOUT 1 1/2 INCHES OF SNOW ALONG THE SOUTHERN
TIER OF COUNTIES MONDAY NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD
RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS NORTH TO UPPER 20S SOUTH...AND THE SNOW
EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES WILL BE OF THE "WET SNOW"
VARIETY.

BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING PRECIPITATION SHOULD
END IN NORTH DAKOTA...BUT CONTINUING FARTHER SOUTH OVER
WYOMING/SOUTH DAKOTA/SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DIGS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE WESTERLIES IS PROGGED TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA/MINNESOTA.
THIS ENERGY WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH LIGHT RAIN OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
TUESDAY...MAINLY OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THIS MAY
LINGER INTO TUESDAY EVENING AS WELL. A COOL DAY TUESDAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE 30S NORTH AND EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER...AND HIGHS IN THE
40S TO THE SOUTH AND WEST. COOL TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS
NORTH AND EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER...AND 20S TO THE SOUTH AND WEST.

ANOTHER WARM-UP BEGINS WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY WITH DRY
WEATHER AS THE WESTERN RIDGE BUILDS BACK EASTWARD INTO THE DAKOTAS.
BY SATURDAY THE RIDGE IS DISRUPTED BY ANOTHER PACIFIC SHORTWAVE THAT
DIGS SOUTHEAST ACROSS MONTANA/WYOMING TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
THIS WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW TO WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 657 PM CDT SUN MAR 9 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TM
SHORT TERM...RP KINNEY
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...TM