Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 230532
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1232 AM CDT Sun Apr 23 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1222 AM CDT Sun Apr 23 2017

Only change for late night update was to increase cloud cover
across the area going into the late morning. Otherwise, previous
forecast remains on track.

UPDATE Issued at 953 PM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017

No big changes with the late evening update. Did the usual
populating latest sensible weather elements and utilized
radar/satellite to update weather/pops/sky cover.

The latest couple iterations of the RAP and HRRR have shifted
slightly farther south with a band of heavier snow late tonight
into Sunday morning. The latest NAM is still farther north. Did
blend a time lagged version of the HRRR/RAP to the previous
forecast to shift the band of snow a little farther south,
without a complete displacement. This did shift heavier
accumulations (still under a couple inches) a little farther south
into northern portions of Mclean, Sheridan, Wells and Foster
counties.

UPDATE Issued at 659 PM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017

Cold front has moved through all but far southern ND as of 6 pm
this evening. Still some shower activity along and just behind the
front over south central ND. Kept a mention of thunder here for
another couple hours. In the north stratiform precipitation is
currently falling as rain but temperatures around the Turtle
mountains were already in the mid to upper 30s so they may switch
over to snow this evening. Overall, very few changes from the
going forecast. Updated products will be sent shortly.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 333 PM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017

For the near term, now through sunset, cold front located from
Beach to Bismarck to just north of Jamestown. Temperatures have
warmed into the upper 60s to 70F in south central along and just
ahead of the cold front. Compare this to 34F at Rolla. The cold
front will continue a slow progress to the southern border by 03z
Sunday. SREF 3hr calibrated thunderstorm probabilities increased
to 10 percent south central ND through 00z Sunday. Given the steep
low level lapse rates around 9c/km, most unstable cape around 250
j/kg and weak shear, have continued to mention isolated thunderstorms
along and south of Interstate 94 through 00z. Latest radar shows
isolated showers working into western Morton county and into Grant
county, moving east with time.

For tonight, low level frontogenesis increases across portions of
north central ND. Expecting a moderate band of snow to develop
between 03z-06z, and continue through the night. What appears will
keep this event from reaching advisory level snowfall accumulations
is the fact that the strongest synoptic scale forcing is displaced
from the maximum frontogensis region. In addition, mid level lapse
rates are marginal, around 6 to 6.5C/km. After collaborating with
WPC and Grand Forks weather office, we have decided the best course
of action is a Special Weather Statement for sub advisory snowfall.
Expect snowfall accumulations of between 1 and 3 inches from Minot
southeast to Harvey and Carrington; essentially between the Highway
2 and 52 corridor tonight through Sunday morning.

Morning snow across north central ND, otherwise mostly cloudy and
cooler Sunday with highs around 40F north to the mid 50s far
south.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 333 PM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017

Another round of precipitation still slated for Sunday night and
Monday with a northern and southern stream shortwave shifting
through western/central ND. Another inch of snowfall expected for
most of the north central, along with a wintry mix into central
ND Sunday night. Precipitation will change back to rain showers
during the day Monday. Thereafter, generally dry but cool weather
prevails Tuesday through Thursday. Highs in the 40s Tuesday and
Wednesday, then 50s Thursday through Saturday. Chances for
precipitation return Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1222 AM CDT Sun Apr 23 2017

A mix of IFR and MVFR can be expected over the next 24 hours.
Occasional rain/snow can be expected around KISN/KJMS/KMOT
through the morning hours.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...AJ


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