Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 302015

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
315 PM CDT SAT JUL 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This Afternoon through Monday Night)

Issued at 315 PM CDT Sat Jul 30 2016

Forecast highlights in the short term period will be chances for
thunderstorms through the period along with much warmer
temperatures Sunday and Monday. Severe storms will be possible
Sunday and Sunday night, and again Monday afternoon and evening.

Currently, a weak embedded mid level wave is interacting with
afternoon destabilization to trigger isolated convection across
central and eastern ND into southern Manitoba once again, just
west of a subtle area of surface low pressure in place over west
central ND. Lack of decent shear and mid level lapse rates should
result in mainly short-lived single cell pulse thunderstorms this
afternoon then diminishing this evening. A brief pulse to
marginal severe not out of the question however. Non-supercell
tor parameter slightly elevated again so a brief funnel not out
of the question either over my northeast.

Later tonight, models are keying in on redevelopment of
thunderstorms late evening or after midnight across either the
south central/James River Valley region, or farther south into
north central/northeastern South Dakota as a 30-40KT Low Level
Jet (LLJ) develops and noses into the aforementioned areas along
with increasing MUCAPE. Convective initialization a bit uncertain
but did increase our chances over the James River Valley region.
Any activity will likely quickly move southeast of the my

Sunday & Sunday night, not much has changed. Closed upper low
develops over central Alberta early Sunday morning, with a
shortwave ridge developing across the Dakotas. Trough of low
pressure off to our west deepens and moves into the far western
Dakotas Sunday afternoon. Resultant increasing southerly return
flow will advect additional low level moisture into our region
along with continued WAA. Surface dewpoints still appear likely
well into the 60s to low 70s ahead of the trough. Daytime highs
mid 80s east to mid/upper 90s west closer to the thermal ridge.
Plenty of instability will thus be in place at peak heating though
the better bulk shear values remain farther west until Sunday
night. Still, values of 30-35KTs expected and should be
sufficient for strong to severe thunderstorms given the MUCAPE
depicted and increasing forcing. Speaking of which, surface
trough/cold front will start to shift east into western ND mid-
late Sunday afternoon, along with increasing mid level divergence
behind the s/wv ridge and as the closed low moves farther east
transitioning our flow to more southwesterly. Capping inversion
looks to be overcome across western ND mid/late afternoon
according to latest NAM/GFS soundings. Strong to severe
convection expected to then expand east Sunday evening before
pushing out or ending overnight into Monday morning. Will
continue to mention the possible severe in the HWO.

Frontal boundary is slow to move east out of central North Dakota
Monday, so will see a lingering threat for thunderstorms
remaining across south central into eastern North Dakota. Main
threats for our area should be east by early to mid evening as the
boundary exits south and east. Plenty of shear will be available
coupled with ample MUCAPE for another threat for strong to severe
storms from southern Missouri river valley over south central ND
into the James river valley Monday afternoon and evening.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)

Issued at 315 PM CDT Sat Jul 30 2016

Compact upper low digs through the Pacific Northwest on Tuesday,
then crosses the Rockies near the international border early
Wednesday before it pushes east-northeast into the plains. This will
bring shower/thunderstorm chances pushing across the area late
Tuesday...lingering into Wednesday primarily over northern/eastern

Drier conditions with seasonal temperatures expected to end the work
week as modest ridge builds over the region.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)

Issued at 315 PM CDT Sat Jul 30 2016

North Dakota remains under the influence of a weak trough aloft
that will support scattered thunderstorms across central and
eastern north dakota this afternoon and evening mainly between
KBIS-KJMS. Otherwise VFR conditions are expected.


.BIS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...



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