Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 292017

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
317 PM CDT Mon May 29 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 306 PM CDT Mon May 29 2017

Frost tonight highlights the short term forecast.

Issued a Frost Advisory for western and far south central North
Dakota for tonight into Tuesday morning. Clear skies, light winds,
a cool start to the evening and dewpoints in the 30s support a
good setup for radiational cooling and the lower edge of the 12
UTC forecast guidance envelope across the west and far south
central. Widespread lows in the lower to mid 30s are expected, if
not a bit cooler, with widespread frost.

Tuesday will be cool under continued cyclonic flow aloft with
highs the 60s. However, winds will be weaker compared to the
weekend, from the northwest at 15-25 mph, as surface high
pressure builds across the region.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 306 PM CDT Mon May 29 2017

A warming trend into Thursday and thunderstorm chances Thursday
night into Saturday highlight the extended forecast.

The 12 UTC global suites are in agreement on cyclonic flow across
the Northern Plains potentially being replaced by shortwave
ridging by Thursday. This would favor a possible warm up with
highs in the 80s forecast for Thursday. There is some signal for
much needed precipitation on Thursday night into Saturday as the
upper level ridge breaks down. However, model spread in upper
level mass fields is high for this period, leading to low
confidence in details at this time.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 306 PM CDT Mon May 29 2017

Strong northwest winds with gusts of 25-35kts will continue across
western and central North Dakota through sunset. VFR cumulus
fields will continue this afternoon. Isolated showers are possible
central this afternoon and early evening. MVFR stratus may build
back into central North Dakota Tuesday morning, possibly impacting


Frost Advisory from 1 AM CDT /midnight MDT/ to 10 AM CDT /9 AM
MDT/ Tuesday for NDZ001-002-009-010-017>020-031>034-040>045.



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