Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 230237
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
937 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 937 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

LOWERED TEMPERATURES JUST A BIT WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED
THROUGH THE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. A FEW TEMPERATURES
IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY WERE ALREADY APPROACHING OVERNIGHT
MINIMUMS. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES IN THE CURRENT FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES IS EXPECTED TO INDUCE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHWEST
SOUTH DAKOTA LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BRING
INCREASING MOISTURE INTO SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
RESULTING IN INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS
MOST LIKELY AFTER 12 UTC TUESDAY. FOR THIS EVENING...MAINLY JUST
THIN HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND FAR SOUTH CENTRAL. MADE
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE
IMAGERY. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES OTHER THAN UPDATING LATEST
SENSIBLE WEATHER ELEMENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY
TUESDAY HIGHLIGHTS THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.

RETURN FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A LEE
SURFACE TROUGH...YIELDING A RELATIVELY MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
50S. THEREAFTER...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS WYOMING THIS
AFTERNOON IS FORECAST TO PROPAGATE ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA ON TUESDAY.
THIS SYSTEM HAS SHOWN LESS AND LESS QPF WITH EACH RUN...WITH THE
FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY IN NORTH DAKOTA
THE ONLY LOCATION IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THAT MAY SEE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION. CLOUD COVER WITH THE LOW ACROSS THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY WILL HOLD HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TUESDAY...WITH MID
TO UPPER 70S FOR MOST OTHER LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

WARM AND DRY THROUGH THE WORK WEEK...RAIN CHANCES INCREASE LATE
WEEKEND.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL PROPAGATE ACROSS THE PLAINS
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. THE LATEST GUIDANCE (00 UTC ECMWF, 12 UTC
GFS/NAM) HAVE THE CENTER OF THE LOW TRACKING ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTH
DAKOTA AND ENTERING EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY EVENING. MOST OF
THE MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE BISMARCK CWA. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD
MAKE IT AS FAR NORTH AND WEST AS LINTON...NAPOLEON AND
EDGELEY...WITH BETTER CHANCES CONFINED TO THE RED RIVER VALLEY.

AFTER THIS WAVE MOVES THROUGH...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD
BACK OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP US WARM
AND DRY OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS. A POTENT LONG WAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED
TO BUILD OVER THE WEST COAST AND SLOWLY PUSH EAST LATE THIS WEEK.
HOWEVER...THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED (5+ DAYS)
AS THE MODELS VARY GREATLY WITH RESPECT TO THIS LONG WAVE FEATURE.
SOME MODELS HAVE A CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPING WHILE OTHERS HAVE AN
OPEN WAVE QUICKLY PROGRESSING NORTH. BOTH SOLUTIONS WOULD HAVE
PRECIP CHANCES RETURNING TO THE REGION...BUT THEY WOULD VARY
GREATLY IN TIMING AND AMOUNTS. FOR NOW WENT AHEAD WITH LOW CHANCES
FOR RAIN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AS THE WAVE MOVES ON SHORE THE MODEL
AGREEMENT SHOULD IMPROVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 937 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
TONIGHT. AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPMENT WILL RESULT IN INCREASING MOISTURE STREAMING INTO THE
AREA LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. 18 UTC NAM/GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS
INDICATE POSSIBLE MVFR CEILINGS SPREADING NORTHWARD INTO THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY ON TUESDAY...AND POSSIBLY AS FAR WEST AS KBIS.
COMPARED TO CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...THIS LOOKS A LITTLE BULLISH.
FOR NOW WILL BRING LOW VFR CEILINGS INTO KJMS BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. STRONGEST WINDS ON TUESDAY WILL BE AT KJMS WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 25 KTS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...TWH





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