Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 270809

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
309 AM CDT Thu Jul 27 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 309 AM CDT Thu Jul 27 2017

Early morning elevated convection northwest, portions of north
central, and south central is the highlight in the near term period.

Showers/thunderstorms across the northwest and portions of north and
south central will fade through late morning. Per latest water
vapor, a 700mb- 500mb shortwave trough in southwest Montana will
reach eastern Montana late this afternoon, then meander into
western ND tonight and Friday. A regeneration of showers/thunderstorms
in eastern Montana/western ND later this afternoon per latest
CAM`s and operational models seems reasonable. Another low level
850mb jet develops tonight in the vicinity of the the approaching
shortwave trough, so thinking is the showers and thunderstorms
from later this afternoon will continue through the night. It
appears the more robust Cape/Shear remains in eastern Montana
throughout the short term period, and the SREF 3hour Calibrated
Severe follows that trend as well as SPC, which keeps western and
portions of central ND in a General Thunderstorm Category.
Nonetheless, any shift eastward with the instability axis would
lead to stronger storms than what is currently anticipated.

High temperatures today will be in the 80s, with lower 90s far

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 309 AM CDT Thu Jul 27 2017

The leading shortwave trough from the short term continues
to migrate through Friday, with additional shortwaves streaming
into western/central ND all the way through Saturday evening.
Hence, chances for showers/thunderstorms will continue during this
time period. A brief break Sunday into early Monday as heights
rise and shortwaves are shunted north into southern Canada. The
ridge then breaks down a bit Monday afternoon through Wednesday
with chances as chances for showers/thunderstorms return.
Afternoon highs vary little day to day through the long term
period. Expect highs in the 80s for all but the the far west where
lower 90s will occur. Overnight lows also look stagnant with
lower to mid 60s throughout the period.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 309 AM CDT Thu Jul 27 2017

For this Taf period, a vcts was mentioned at KISN/KMOT/KDIK at
various times. It appears that any precipitation would be isolated
through 18z Thursday, then perhaps increasing in coverage across
western ND Thursday afternoon through the evening. No mention of
precipitation at KBIS or KJMS at this time.




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