Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 301814
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
114 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 114 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO REMAIN ON TRACK AS STRATUS IS BEGINNING
TO ERODE ACROSS THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE TO
PROPAGATE SOUTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS LOW
LEVEL SUBSIDENCE INCREASES WITH THE BUILDING SURFACE HIGH.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 909 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE AS THE LATEST
12-13 UTC RAP ITERATIONS CONTINUE TO ERODE LOW LEVEL STRATUS FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOW LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IN
THE BUILDING SURFACE HIGH ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 646 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

REMOVED EARLY MORNING DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE WORDING FROM THE
ZONES AS SURFACE OBS HAVE BEEN DRY ALL MORNING UNDER THE STRATUS
DECK CREEPING SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
OTHERWISE...THE REMAINING WEATHER ELEMENTS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE. THE
UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

EFFECTS OF A LARGE CLOUD DECK MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE BEHIND A
COLD FRONT WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM.
TIMING OF CLOUDS DISSIPATING TODAY WILL AFFECT MAX TEMPERATURES.

CURRENTLY...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM A LOW NEAR JAMESTOWN WESTWARD
ALONG I-94. A LARGE CLOUD DECK IN SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA WELL BEHIND
THE FRONT WAS PUSHING INTO NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

THE COLD MOIST AIR WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE TODAY...AND THE
LOW CLOUD DECK SHOULD ENCOMPASS THE STATE LATER THIS MORNING. SOME
OBSERVATION SITES WERE REPORTING FOG AT THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
CLOUD DECK...BUT THIS SHOULD NOT LAST LONG AS STRATUS DECK MOVES
OVER AND WINDS PICK UP A BIT. THE FOG IN THE JAMES VALLEY MAY LINGER
UNTIL THE LOW MOVES SOUTHEAST AND THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH...SO KEPT
A MENTION OF FOG THERE UNTIL AROUND SUNRISE.

THE LARGE CANADIAN HIGH PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE TODAY...AND
THE MODELS INDICATE CLOUDS DISSIPATING WITH TIME TODAY. EXPECTING
DISSIPATING CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON. A COOL DAY WITH HIGHS ONLY
REACHING THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO THE LOW TO MID 40S SOUTH.

BY FRIDAY MORNING THE HIGH CENTER SHOULD BE OVER THE RED RIVER
VALLEY...WITH A GOOD PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE WEST ALLOWING
SOUTHEAST WINDS TO DEVELOP BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES
SHOULD RANGE FROM THE TEENS IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA CLOSER TO THE
HIGH CENTER...TO THE 20S IN THE FAR WEST WITH THE SOUTHEAST WINDS
MIXING THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE AND KEEPING TEMPS FROM FALLING BELOW 20.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE GREAT PLAINS WILL
GENERATE DRY CONDITIONS OVER NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
VERY WINDY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHWESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS
MONTANA. WINDS SHOULD ABATE BY SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE CYCLONE
ENTERS EASTERN MONTANA AND WEAKENS GRADIENT FLOW ACROSS NORTH
DAKOTA.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION AND TRACK OF A SHORTWAVE LIFTING INTO
CENTRAL AND EASTERN MONTANA SUNDAY. THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION
SHOULD REMAIN IN MONTANA SUNDAY. AS THE SHORTWAVE ENTERS
SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE COULD GENERATE A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY
MORNING...WITH THE PRECIP TYPE LIKELY TRANSITIONING TO RAIN
SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE THEN FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS
SHORTWAVE RIDGING CRESTS OVER NORTH DAKOTA.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS PROG A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SNOW
DEVELOPING NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LEFT FRONT QUAD OF A 130+ KT
UPPER JET STREAK LIFTS ACROSS THE STATE.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST AGAIN BY WEDNESDAY AS BROAD UPPER
RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE ROCKIES INTO THE WESTERN PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 114 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

MVFR TO IFR STRATUS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NEARLY ALL OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL SLOWLY ERODE FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...AYD






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