Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 071229
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
629 AM CST Wed Dec 7 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 622 AM CST Wed Dec 7 2016

Expired the Blizzard Warning for this update. The Winter Weather
Advisory is now in effect. While winds remain stout this morning,
snowfall has ended across the area. This has allowed visibilities
to improve over the area over previous blizzard conditions.
However, blowing and drifting snow will likely continue through
the day and visibilities may dip down to one half mile at times
across portions of east central North Dakota where there stronger
winds are expected to remain.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 319 AM CST Wed Dec 7 2016

Ongoing issues with Blizzard in the east and wind chills west are
the main forecast issues in the short term.

Currently the center of the storm system affecting central and
eastern North Dakota is situated near the arrowhead of Minnesota.
The cyclone will track east across southern Ontario today and
tonight. Another lobe of energy will wrap around the back side of
the low and provide a chance of light snow for central ND today and
tonight. Snow accumulations will be light with maybe an inch or so
in the Turtle Mountains, and a half inch or less for most areas
along and east of the Highway 83 corridor.

Arctic high pressure will continue to build south along the front
range of the Rockies and slowly push into the western dakotas during
this same timeframe. This will continue to produce a strong gradient
between the Arctic high and the departing low. Through the day today
the latest HRRR sfc to 0.5km winds continue at 35 to 45 knots across
central North Dakota. Thus, although not as windy as Tuesday, it
will be another windy day today.

Current observations continue to indicate winds gusting to around 40
mph from around Minot, east to the Turtle Mountains, and south into
the James River Valley. These winds may relax a bit during our
during the early morning hours, but will pick up again in the late
morning and afternoon. Observations sites are not technically in
Blizzard warning criteria, but expect out in open country
visibilities are still quite bad. The current Blizzard warning goes
through 6 AM and we will let that continue. However, after 6 AM we
suspect there will still be widespread blowing snow over this same
area. We will issue a Winter Weather Advisory for this same area,
taking over for the Blizzard Warning, beginning at 6 am and
continuing through 6 PM this evening.

Farther west, wind chills are around 25 below over southwest North
Dakota. See no reason to adjust the wind chill advisory at this time.

Winds finally quiet down tonight as the Arctic high builds into
western North Dakota. We will likely need another wind chill
advisory for portions of western North Dakota late tonight into
Thursday morning. With current advisory ongoing, will leave this for
later shifts.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 319 AM CST Wed Dec 7 2016

Continued cold and a shot of snow on Saturday highlight the long
term period.

Arctic high pressure settles right over the Dakotas on Thursday and
Friday. A 1040-1043MB High is situated over central North Dakota at
12 UTC Friday. Needless to say it will be a cold couple of days with
highs mainly in the single digits both days. We undercut our given
guidance both Thursday and Friday mornings, opting for a Blend of
GFS/NAM numerical guidance. This gives us morning lows well into the
teens below zero across most of the forecast area Friday morning. We
hesitated to go completely with the GFS numerical guidance at this
time as there may be some stratus floating around. But lows closer
to 20 below may certainly be a possibility, especially with this new
fresh deep snowpack.

Upper level flow off the pacific arrive on Saturday. A surface low
over the central plains with a strong upper level jet over the
Dakotas bringing a good chance of some accumulating snows to the
northern plains on Saturday. There is some disagreement between the
numerical models on the exact placement and timing, but it looks
right now like the southern half of ND would be favored for some
light snow accumulations.

Another surge of Arctic high pressure drops south into the northern
plains on Sunday and remains over the region through at least the
middle of next week. If this pans out we can expect an extended
period of wind chill highlights through much of the extended
forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 622 AM CST Wed Dec 7 2016

MVFR to VFR conditions are expected today. KBIS/KJMS/KMOT
experience MVFR vsby in blowing snow today and MVFR cigs later
this afternoon.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Chill Advisory until noon CST /11 AM MST/ today for NDZ001-
002-009-010-017>021-031>034-040>045.

Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for
NDZ003>005-011>013-022-023-025-036-037-047-048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...AJ
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...AJ


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