Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 260709
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
109 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

.UPDATE...

ISSUED AT 109 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

STRATUS CONTINUES TO HOLD ON ACROSS WEST/CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
AHEAD OF A SURFACE HIGH CURRENTLY OVER SASKATCHEWAN. WHILE MODELS
ARE DOING POORLY DEPICTING THE STRATUS...THERE IS AGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE HIGH RES OUTPUT WITH PARTIAL CLEARING TAKING PLACE
ONCE THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO NORTH
DAKOTA. THIS IS SUPPORTED WITH LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY WHERE
BREAKS IN THE STRATUS HAVE FORMED NORTH AND WEST OF THE STATE THE
PAST FEW HOURS. TWEAKED SKY GRIDS TO MATCH THE ABOVE. ALSO ADDED
ISOLATED FLURRIES AREA WIDE THROUGH 12Z WITH LIGHT SNOW BEING
REPORTED AT TIMES AT A HANDFUL OF SITES.


UPDATE ISSUED AT 924 PM CST THU DEC 25 2014

SMALL AREA OF CLEARING SKIES CONTINUES TO PASS OVER THE NORTHWEST
THOUGH CLOUD COVER HAS BEEN QUICK TO RETURN FROM THE
WEST...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER AREA OF CLEARING PASSING THROUGH
SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. FOR LATE EVENING UPDATE HAVE TRIED TO TIME
THIS OUT IN ADJUSTMENT TO CLOUD GRIDS. HAVE ALSO DROPPED LOW
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES OVER THE NORTH WHERE CLEARING IS
EXPECTED TO PASS OVER IN LINE WITH THE TRENDS NOTED OVER
SASKATCHEWAN. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 622 PM CST THU DEC 25 2014

OVERCAST SKIES CONTINUE OVER THE STATE...THOUGH AN AREA OF
CLEARING OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WORK
TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TO SEE HOW THIS
PROGRESSES INTO THE AREA...AS AREAS THAT CLEAR OUT WILL HAVE A
QUICK DROP IN TEMPERATURES. ALSO...STILL SOME QUESTION ON HOW
LONG-LIVED THE CLEARING WILL BE AS ANOTHER AREA OF LOW CLOUDS HAS
BEEN WRAPPING IN BEHIND THE CLEARING. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CST THU DEC 25 2014

A RELATIVELY QUIET SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD IS EXPECTED WITH
FLURRIES THE PRIMARY CONCERN. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS SNOW
FROM SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA INTO SOUTH DAKOTA AND WYOMING. ACROSS
NORTH DAKOTA...SHALLOW...WEAK RETURNS PERSIST WITH NOTHING MORE
THAN FLURRIES BEING REPORTED. SHORT TERM FORECAST MODELS SUGGEST
FLURRIES WILL LINGER INTO THIS EVENING...BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY
DIMINISH.

FRIDAY WILL START WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER...AND EVEN SOME
SUNSHINE IS POSSIBLE. THE NEXT H5 WAVE ARRIVES ALREADY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH IT IS WEAK. THE 25.12Z GEM
SUGGESTS THERE COULD BE A FEW FLURRIES IN WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS KEEP IT DRY...SO
DID NOT ADD THEM INTO THE FORECAST YET.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CST THU DEC 25 2014

THE BIGGEST ISSUE OF THE LONG TERM IS THE VERY COLD AIR ADVANCING
INTO THE REGION. THE COLDEST WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT / TUESDAY MORNING
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS BELOW ZERO...WINDS AROUND 10
MPH...AND APPARENT TEMPERATURES (WIND CHILLS) AS LOW AS 35 BELOW.
THIS WOULD WARRANT A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR THAT TIME PERIOD.
ACTUALLY...CHILL ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED SUNDAY
NIGHT...MONDAY NIGHT (COLDEST)...AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THE TOUGH
DECISION ON THAT WILL BE TO POST IT FOR EACH NIGHT...OR JUST KEEP IT
GOING THROUGH ONE OR TWO OF THOSE DAYTIME HOURS AS WELL. THOSE
DECISIONS WILL COME AS WE GET CLOSER TO AND WORK THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

WITH THE CANADIAN MID LEVEL LOW / COLD VORTEX MOVING OUT OF MANITOBA
AND INTO ONTARIO...ARCTIC AIR SLIDES DOWN THE BACK SIDE ON A NORTH
FLOW. IT MOVES INTO NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE SO NOTHING MORE THAN FLURRIES...EXCEPT THE
SOUTHWEST WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW MAY RING OUT A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW
FROM DICKINSON TO BOWMAN AREAS. THE HEART OF THE ARCTIC AIR IS OVER
THE STATE TUESDAY MORNING.

BY TUESDAY NIGHT WARM AIR ADVECTION GETS UNDERWAY...FROM THE
NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES COULD REACH THEIR LOWS EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT
AND THEN RISE THROUGH THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY WEST. COUNTER TO THAT
WILL BE INCREASING WIND SPEEDS IN WARM ADVECTION THAT MAY COUNTER
THE RISING TEMPERATURES ENOUGH TO STILL PRODUCE WIND CHILLS IN THE
20S BELOW.

TEMPERATURES WARM...RELATIVELY SPEAKING...WEDNESDAY AND NEW YEARS
DAY BEFORE THE NEXT COLD SHOT FOR FRIDAY NEXT WEEK.

AS FAR AS SNOW GOES...AGAIN...FLURRIES TO A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW
SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN WARM AIR ADVECTION SNOWS ARE POSSIBLE
AROUND THE NEW YEARS DAY HOLIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY EVENING)

ISSUED AT 109 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS REMAIN OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING. GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS TO VFR LEVELS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST...THOUGH STILL
SOME QUESTION IN HOW LONG THE IMPROVEMENT WILL LAST BEFORE MVFR
CIGS RETURN.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...CK
LONG TERM...JPM
AVIATION...NH






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