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000
FXUS63 KGLD 131501
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
901 AM MDT SUN APR 13 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 900 AM MDT SUN APR 13 2014

ISSUED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ACROSS NW HALF OF CWA. UPSTREAM
REPORTS FROM NEIGHBORING OFFICES INDICATE ACCUMULATIONS ANYWHERE
FROM 2-4 INCHES WITH SNOW BAND MOVING OVER NE CO AND SW
NEBRASKA...THOUGH THIS SEEMS TO BE MELTING FAIRLY QUICKLY. WEB
CAMS SUPPORT ACCUMULATION MAINLY ON GRASSY SURFACES. TEMPS HAVE
FALLEN MUCH QUICKER THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED AND ALL INDICATIONS
ARE WE SHOULD SEE A QUICKER RAIN/SNOW CHANGEOVER IN THE NW TODAY
RESULTING IN HIGHER TOTALS TODAY/TONIGHT. WARM GROUND TEMPS
COMPLICATE THINGS...AND I STILL THINK MOST ACCUMULATION WILL BE ON
GRASS/ELEVATED OBJECTS THAT RESPOND QUICKER TO AIR TEMPS. COULD SEE
SOME SLUSH ON ROADS...SO TRAVEL IMPACTS WILL STILL POSSIBLE. WITH
SNOW/WIND WE COULD ALSO SEE REDUCED VIS FROM BLOWING SNOW AS SNOW
FALLS...HOWEVER I AM LESS WORRIED ABOUT SNOW DRIFTING/BLOWING OFF
SURFACES DUE TO THE WET NATURE OF THIS SNOW.

EARLY THIS MORNING BRIEF RAIN/SLEET MIX WAS OBSERVED AND RAP
SOUNDINGS DID INDICATE A WARM LAYER AHEAD OF THIS MAIN COLD SURGE.
RADAR/LIGHTING DATA INDICATES THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FURTHER EAST
AND NORTH THAN ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED. THIS ACTIVITY SEEMS TO BE
TIED TO AXIS OF DECENT LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES NORTH OF DRY SLOT
AHEAD OF H7 TROUGH. I WENT AHEAD AND EXPANDED MENTION OF ISO T
THIS MORNING AND MENTIONED SLIGHT CHANCE SLEET THROUGH MIDDAY
(THOUGH NO ICE ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE EXPECTED).

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 258 AM MDT SUN APR 13 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES TODAY WILL MOVE OUT ONTO THE
PLAINS TONIGHT.  NORTHWEST FLOW WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE TROUGH MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.  A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO
EASTERN COLORADO TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

SHORTWAVES THAT COME THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN
THAT WILL MIX WITH AND CHANGE OVER TO SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST FROM
LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ALL SNOW IS EXPECTED THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. BY THE TIME PRECIPITATION IS ALL SNOW,
MOISTURE WILL START DECREASING OVER THE AREA. TOTAL SNOWFALL BY THE
TIME IT ENDS MONDAY MORNING WILL RANGE FROM LESS THAN AN INCH OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FA WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER THE WESTERN HALF.
THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR OVER EASTERN COLORADO WHERE 2 TO 3
INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE. SINCE GROUND TEMPERATURES ARE SO WARM, SNOW
WILL MELT ON ROAD SURFACES. SUBSIDENCE AND RESULTING DRY CONDITIONS
WILL RESUME MONDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FOR SUNDAY SHOW A POTENTIAL FOR 35KTS TO 40KTS
GUSTS.  NAM NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SHOWS SUSTAINED WINDS BARELY INTO
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA WHILE THE GFS NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SURPASSES
THE SUSTAINED WIND. PLAN TO GO WITH A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE
FA STARTING AT 12Z AND GOING TO 03Z MONDAY. SEE DETAILS BELOW.

HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY BE EARLY WITH STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE DAY.  HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL
MODERATE TO THE MID AND UPPER 40S WITH LOWER TO MID 60S TUESDAY.
MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT WILL COOL TO THE MID AND
UPPER 20S.  MIN TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL MODERATE TO THE MID
30S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 152 AM MDT SUN APR 13 2014

SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL BEGIN
TO APPROACH ON WEDNESDAY. ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE
MOVING INTO THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...SO WILL HAVE COOLER
TEMPERATURES NORTHWEST. COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR THE AREA BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND AS LIFT INCREASES WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
HAVE A CHANCE FOR SNOW NORTHWEST AND RAIN AND SNOW ELSEWHERE
THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS EVENT LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO THE ONE
OCCURRING TODAY ACROSS THE AREA AND COULD BRING ANOTHER FEW INCHES
OF SNOW...ALTHOUGH GFS FORECAST OF UP TO A FOOT LOOKS
OVERDONE. DROPPED TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY AS MUCH AS ISC
ALLOWED...BUT WITH CLOUDS/UPSLOPE/PRECIPITATION NOT EXPECTING MUCH
WARMING. SHORTWAVE RIDGING REBUILDS ON FRIDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS
AND TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. SOUTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM ON SATURDAY LOOKS RATHER WEAK AT THIS TIME AND MAY
BE TOO FAR SOUTH...SO WILL KEEP IT DRY WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 531 AM MDT SUN APR 13 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL COME TO AN END AT KGLD AND KMCK AS AREAS OF
LIGHT RAIN MOVE INTO THE AREA. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP WITH
THE SHOWERS WITH IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AS RAIN CHANGES TO SNOW.
GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND THEN DECREASE BELOW WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA AROUND 02Z. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF TOWARD SUNRISE
MONDAY MORNING.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT /1 AM CDT/ TONIGHT
     FOR KSZ001-002-013.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MDT /9 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR KSZ003-
     004-014>016-027>029-041-042.

CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR
     COZ090>092.

NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT /1 AM CDT/ TONIGHT
     FOR NEZ079-080.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ081.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DR
SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...FS