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000
FXUS63 KGLD 051813
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1113 AM MST WED MAR 5 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 509 AM MST WED MAR 5 2014

HAVE DONE A COUPLE OF UPDATES ALREADY. PRECIPITATION IS ENDING MUCH
FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. SO HAVE CONFINED THE HIGHEST POPS
TO THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA THROUGH MID MORNING. PRECIPITATION
HAS BEEN MIXED WITH A LITTLE SNOW. SO HAVE A MIXTURE OF PATCHY
FREEZING DRIZZLE AND SNOW DURING THIS WITH VERY LITTLE ACCUMULATION
EXPECTED.. SINCE CLEARING IS OCCURRING ALREADY IN THE WESTERN PORTION
OF THE AREA...FOG HAS BEGUN TO DEVELOP WITH THE MOST WIDESPREAD FOG
ALONG AND WEST OF THE COLORADO BORDER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 258 AM MST WED MAR 5 2014

MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM IS HAVING ANY KIND OF CONFIDENCE IN MODEL
OUTPUT BUT I DIGRESS. WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION INTO THIS MORNING...IF ANY...AND THE PHASE OF THAT
PRECIPITATION...NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION STARTING ON FRIDAY...AND
HIGH TEMPERATURES. SATELLITE SHOWING A SOMEWHAT AMPLIFIED BUT STILL
PROGRESSIVE FLOW FROM THE PACIFIC INTO EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. TWO
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH WITH ONE MOVING TO OUR SOUTHWEST AND
ANOTHER APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. STRONG PV ANOMALIES
ASSOCIATED WITH BOTH SYSTEMS.

AIR MASS WARMED CONSIDERABLY OVER YESTERDAY BUT ANOTHER FRONT MOVED
THROUGH DURING THE NIGHT TO TAKE AWAY THAT WARMING. AT JET LEVEL...
MODELS HAVING A LOT OF TROUBLE HERE. THEY ARE EITHER UNDERDOING WIND
SPEEDS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND JET NOSING INTO THE GREAT
BASIN OR HAVE THE POSITION OF THOSE JETS CORRECTLY. AT MID LEVELS...
THE GFS WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE ECMWF ON THE SURFACE WIND
AND PRESSURE FIELD. MODELS INITIALIZED TOO COLD TO OUR NORTH. THE
CANADIAN WAS DOING BEST AT THIS TIME.

TODAY/TONIGHT...SINCE AROUND 06Z RADAR HAS SHOWN AREA OF
PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO/THROUGH AREA INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY. 00Z NAM...03Z RUC AND EARLIER HRRR KEPT THE AREA NEARLY
DRY WITH LITTLE TO NO MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION INDICATED. HOWEVER
LATER RUNS OF THE HRRR HAD MORE PRECIPITATION BUT KEPT MOST OF IT
ALONG AND WEST OF THE COLORADO STATELINE. 06Z RUN HAS CAUGHT ONTO
WHAT THE RADAR IS SHOWING AND IS SHOWING A NICE BAND OF PRECIPITATION
MOVING ACROSS.

ANOTHER DAY ANOTHER JET SCENARIO FOR THE AREA. DESPITE INITIAL
ANALYSIS PROBLEMS...THE MODELS DO TAKE A COUPLED JET STRUCTURE
ACROSS AREA THROUGH THE MORNING. BY 18Z LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF NORTH
TO SOUTH JET LOOKS TO BE AFFECTING THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA.
THIS MOVES OFF QUICKLY TO THE EAST BY 00Z. VERY STRONG MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS. ALL THIS IS CONSISTENT FROM YESTERDAY AND
CONSIDERING WHAT RADAR AND REALITY ARE SHOWING...MADE NO CHANGES TO
THE POPS THIS MORNING. ALSO HAVE BEEN GETTING A MIXTURE OF
PRECIPITATION...MOSTLY SLEET AND LIGHT FREEZING RAIN. LOOKS LIKE A
TRANSITION TO SNOW IS NOT TOO FAR AWAY. THIS LOOKS CAPTURED
REASONABLY WITH THE GRIDS AND ALSO DID NOT CHANGE.

MODEL DIFFERENCE IN HOW COLD OR WARM TO MAKE IT TODAY. LOOKS LIKE
WE WILL CLEAR OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY BEHIND THE PRECIPITATION. MAJORITY
OF THE DATA SUPPORTED GOING MORE ON THE WARMER SIDE. SO ENDED UP
ADJUSTED BASED ON RECENT BETTER PERFORMING GUIDANCE WHAT IS
CAPTURING REALITY AT THIS TIME. DID ADJUST DOWN A LITTLE BIT
ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHEAST WHICH WILL HAVE THE CLOUDS LONGEST.

MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE LOW TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT.

THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...RIDGING ALOFT AND SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
SURFACE WINDS LOOK TO BRING MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA.
MODELS HAVE BEEN TOO COOL LATELY DUE TO NOT HAVING THE SNOWFIELD
CAPTURED CORRECTLY. 850 MB TEMPERATURES AND WHAT HAS BEEN
DOING BEST IN THE NON-SNOW COVERED AREAS SUPPORTED CURRENT KEEPING
TEMPERATURES NEAR THE CURRENT FORECAST. SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING
FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH EITHER VERY LATE
IN THE NIGHT OR EARLY THE MORNING ON FRIDAY.

FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...DETERMINISTIC MODELS SHOWING DIFFERENCES FOR
THIS PERIOD AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS AND ALMOST LOOK LIKE A SPAGHETTI
PLOT. MODELS DIFFER ON SPEED AND AMPLITUDE OF INCOMING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH...SPECIFICALLY WHEN THEY DECIDE TO BREAK OFF THE SOUTHERN
PIECE OF THE TROUGH. MODELS LOOK LIKE THEY DIVE A STRONGER JET ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. SO THAT GENERAL SCENARIO LOOKS
REASONABLE. AS IT LOOKS NOW THE BEST CHANCE LOOKS TO BE OVER
EASTERN COLORADO WHICH WHERE THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS IT.

DUE TO THE DIFFERENCES BEING SO GREAT AND THE GENERAL IDEA OF WHAT
THE MODELS ARE SHOWING MATCHES WITH THE FORECAST...WHICH ALSO MATCHES
UP WELL WITH THIS PATTERN AND WHAT IS CURRENTLY GOING ON...WILL NOT
CHANGE THE POPS AND WEATHER. ALTHOUGH COULD SEE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES BEING LESS CONSIDERING THE TREND OF THE MODELS BEING FURTHER
WEST. FRONT LOOKS LIKE IT GOES THROUGH EARLY IN THE DAY WITH STRONG
COLD AIR ADVECTION UNDERWAY BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z. DID LOWER THE
MAXES SOME CONSIDERING THIS BUT COULD SEE AN ADDITIONAL AMOUNT OF
COOLING NEEDED. ALSO WITH THE GRADIENT...COLD AIR ADVECTION AND THE 3
HOUR PRESSURE RISES THAT MOVE ACROSS BEHIND THE FRONT...WINDS LOOK TO
BE IN THE WINDY CATEGORY.

THANKS TO ALL FOR THE COLLABORATION THIS MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM MST TUE MAR 4 2014

ANY LINGERING RAIN/SNOW WILL END EARLY SATURDAY AS SYSTEM EXITS
TO THE EAST. UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND IT WITH DRY
CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE
IN RATHER POOR AGREEMENT ON REPRESENTATION OF THE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY SYSTEM...LEADING TO LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR THAT
PERIOD. GFS WANTS TO BRING IN A RATHER STRONG KICKER BEHIND THE
INITIAL WAVE...BUT THE ECMWF SHOWS NO SUCH KICKER. CANNOT JUSTIFY
MORE THAN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT THIS POINT. IT SHOULD HOWEVER COOL
TEMPERATURES DOWN TO BELOW NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1040 AM MST WED MAR 5 2014

GLD WILL TRANSITION FROM IFR THROUGH MVFR TO VFR BETWEEN 18Z-20Z
AS LOW CLOUDS BURN OFF. AFTER 20Z...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THAT WILL TURN TO
THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST AFTER 03Z AND INCREASE TO OVER 10 KTS AFTER
14Z THURSDAY MORNING.

MCK WILL START OUT MVFR AND WILL BECOME VFR BY 21Z. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS AROUND SUNSET TRANSITIONING SLOWLY TO LIGHT
SOUTHWEST BY 14Z THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...JDK
AVIATION...LOCKHART