Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 291139
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
539 AM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 426 AM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE ACTIVE WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT
WITH SECONDARY CONCERN WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SATELLITE IS SHOWING AN
AMPLIFIED PATTERN FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC INTO EASTERN NORTH
AMERICA. STRONG AND SLOW MOVING UPPER SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT BASIN
WILL BE THE MAIN PLAYER FOR OUR WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT.

NEXT UPPER SYSTEM IS DIGGING TOWARD SOUTHWEST CANADA. SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE AHEAD OF GREAT BASIN SYSTEM HAS SURGED NORTH FROM
YESTERDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE JUST TO OUR SOUTH IS SHOWING AN
INCREASE FROM YESTERDAY. AT JET LEVEL THE MODELS INITIALIZED WELL
AND CLOSE WITH THE CANADIAN...ECMWF...NAM AND GFS DOING THE BEST.

AT MID LEVELS...THE GFS...CANADIAN...UKMET AND ECMWF WERE DOING A
LITTLE BETTER THAN THE NAM. THE NAM WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN
THE ECMWF AND SREF ON THE LOW LEVEL SURFACE WIND AND PRESSURE
FIELD. THE MODELS INITIALIZE WELL AND CLOSE ON THE LOW LEVEL
THERMAL FIELD.

TODAY/TONIGHT...FIRST THE WIND. LAPSE RATES...PRESSURE
GRADIENT...3 HOUR PRESSURE FALLS...AND 850 TO 700 MB WINDS WOULD
SUPPORT HAVING A WIND ADVISORY FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE
COLORADO BORDER. AS A RESULT...DECIDED TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY
FOR THE AFTERNOON THE COUNTIES ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER.

HEIGHT FALLS WOULD INDICATE THE MAIN CORE OF THE CENTER WILL BE
GOING TOWARD WYOMING. MODEL OUTPUT CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY SLOW
THIS SYSTEM DOWN. BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON THE MAIN UPPER JET/LIFT
IS OVER EXTREME EASTERN COLORADO. MAIN SURFACE CONVERGENCE IS ALSO
JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE IN THE DAY. MODELS HAVE
SLOWED THE ONSET OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SO LOWERED THE
AFTERNOON POPS. HOWEVER...ONCE THE STORMS DEVELOP THEY SHOULD GO
SEVERE DUE TO THE AMOUNT SHEAR...INSTABILITY AND STRONG LIFT.

NEWER MODEL DATA SUPPORTS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THROUGH THE
EVENING EITHER A LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OR COUPLED JET IS AFFECTING
THE NORTHWEST HALF. AFTER MIDNIGHT...RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE
JET IS AFFECTING THE SOUTHEAST HALF. VERY STRONG MID LEVEL FORCING
WILL ALSO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. JUST MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
POPS BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
CONTINUING THROUGH THE EVENING. HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
WILL BE IN PLACE. DESPITE THE STRONG STEERING FLOW...THUNDERSTORMS
LOOK TO TRAIN WITH SLOW EASTWARD MOVEMENT EXPECTED. AS A RESULT
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL COULD OCCUR.

TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE JET IS
CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE SOUTHEAST HALF THIRD TO HALF THROUGH THE
MORNING. THAT AND LINGERING MID LEVEL LIFT COULD KEEP
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE MORNING IN THAT AREA. PREVIOUS FORECAST
HAD THAT HANDLED WELL AND DID NOT CHANGE.

AFTER MIDNIGHT A RATHER STRONG LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF THE UPPER
JET BEGINS TO AFFECT MOST OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY THE NORTH HALF
TO TWO THIRDS. THERE LOOKS TO ALSO TO BE DECENT FORCING AS
EVIDENCED BY A RATHER STRONG PV ANOMALY. THETA-E LAPSE RATES ARE
LOW ENOUGH THAT THE AIR MASS SHOULD RESPOND WELL TO THE LIFT. IF
CURRENT LIFT AND INSTABILITY TRENDS CONTINUE...POPS MAY NEED TO BE
RAISED MORE.

WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ABOVE MENTIONED JET GRADUALLY MOVES NORTH
AND EAST AND BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON DIVIDES THE FORECAST AREA IN
HALF FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. DUE TO GOOD LIFT DECIDED
TO RAISE POPS INTO A HIGHER CHANCE CATEGORY OVER MOST OF THE AREA.
AGAIN IT IS POSSIBLE THAT POPS MAY NEED TO BE RAISED MORE. IT MAY
NOT WARM UP MUCH DUE TO CLOUD COVER...PRECIPITATION...AND AN
UNFAVORABLE WIND FIELD. MAXES MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED.

THERE LOOKS TO BE BRIEF BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION AFTER THE ABOVE
MENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. BY LATE EVENING UPPER
JET MOVES TO THE EAST OF THE AREA AND LOOKS TO AFFECT THE
SOUTHEAST HALF BEFORE IT LEAVES. INCOMING TROUGH IS LOOKING A
LITTLE STRONGER. THETA-E LAPSE RATES ARE LOW AND SHOULD RESPOND
VERY WELL TO THE LIFT GENERATED BY THIS INCOMING POSITIVELY TILTED
TROUGH. STRONG FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND PV ANOMALY SHOULD BRING A
VERY CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA AND DID MAKE
ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO THE HIGH POPS ALREADY IN THERE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 217 AM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BE POSITIONED OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS FOR THURSDAY...WITH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL
SLIDE THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS AREA ON THURSDAY...BRINGING CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.  HIGH TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...WHICH IS SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.  WITH STABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT AND A
LACK OF CAPE IN THE VERTICAL PROFILE OVER THE REGION...RAIN SHOWERS
ARE MORE PROBABLE THAN THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.

ONCE THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE HIGH
PLAINS AREA...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON
FRIDAY WITH A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM DOMINATING THE WEATHER
INTO NEXT WEEKEND BRINGING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY WEATHER.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S FOR FRIDAY...WHICH IS ABOUT
AVERAGE FOR THE TRI STATE AREA.  HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN
TO ABOVE NORMAL STATUS FOR NEXT WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 533 AM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

INITIALLY THE PROBLEM WILL BE WINDS...ESPECIALLY AT KGLD. BY LATE
MORNING AT KGLD...WINDS SUSTAINED NEAR 26 KNOTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 40
KNOT BEGIN AND LAST UNTIL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. THE WINDS AT KMCK
WILL INCREASE AS WELL BUT WILL ONLY BE SUSTAINED FROM 15 TO 20
KNOTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL
BETWEEN 06Z TO 09Z.

WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT BOTH TAF SITES
FROM THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. RAINFALL COULD BECOME
MODERATE TO HEAVY WITH THESE STORMS SO SUB VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. AT THIS TIME CHOSE TO REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO NEAR 5
MILES WITH CEILINGS JUST ABOVE MVFR. HOWEVER...THESE CONDITIONS
COULD END BEING SLIGHTLY WORSE AND LATER FORECASTS WILL HAVE TO
FINE TUNE.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON MDT /1 PM CDT/ TODAY TO 6 PM MDT /7 PM
     CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR KSZ001-013-027-041.

CO...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
     COZ090>092.

NE...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NEZ079.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...BULLER


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