National Weather Service Text Product Display

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 121129
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
429 AM MST THU DEC 12 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 229 AM MST THU DEC 12 2013

NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES TODAY BUT CHANGES TO SOUTHWEST FLOW TONIGHT
IN RESPONSE TO A LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS LOW WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL RESUME FRIDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.  A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE
OVER EASTERN COLORADO TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT SOUTH
ON FRIDAY WITH A COLD FRONT FOLLOWING.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

SUBSIDENCE WILL CONTINUE TODAY. SOME VERY WEAK LIFT WILL BE
AVAILABLE OVER THE FA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY BUT MOISTURE IS LACKING.
SUBSIDENCE WILL RESUME FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. THE NET RESULT WILL BE NIL POPS FROM TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT.

MAX TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM 45 TO 50. MAX TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER 40S WEST TO THE UPPER 30S EAST.
MIN TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID TEENS WITH SOME LOWER TEENS IN
THE EAST.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 AM MST THU DEC 12 2013

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN DRY AS A LAMINAR
UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAINS OVER THE AREA FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE
PERIOD.  TUESDAY EVENING MODELS DISAGREE WITH HOW FAR SOUTH AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE.  THE MODELS MOVING THE TROUGH
FURTHER SOUTH ALSO MOVE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA...WHICH MAY
LEAD TO MINIMAL CHANCES FOR RAIN/SNOW.  THE MODELS THAT KEEP THE
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS PLACE A SHORT WAVE RIDGE OVER THE
AREA INSTEAD.  THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE SPLIT AS TO WHICH WAY
THE TROUGH WILL TRACK SO DO NOT HAVE MUCH CONFIDENCE TO GO EITHER
WAY CURRENTLY.  AS SUCH WILL KEEP THE FORECAST IN LINE WITH WHAT THE
PREVIOUS SHIFT HAD.

TEMPERATURES FOR THE PERIOD WILL BE 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 427 AM MST THU DEC 12 2013

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT KGLD AND KMCK FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT
THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FRIDAY.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...FS

National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office