Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 251426
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
826 AM MDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 823 AM MDT TUE AUG 25 2015

ADDED PATCHY FOG AND INCREASED SKY COVER THIS MORNING BASED ON
CURRENT SATELLITE AND OBS IN OUR SW CWA. THIS SHOULD BURN OFF BY
MIDDAY WITH DAYTIME HEATING...MATCHING RAP/HRRR TRENDS IN BL
MOISTURE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM MDT TUE AUG 25 2015

TODAY-TONIGHT...UPPER RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY MOVES EAST ALLOWING
INSTABILITY AXIS TO ALSO SHIFT EAST AND CENTERED OVER MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. MOISTURE IS RATHER LIMITED AND GENERALLY CONFINED TO
THE FLAGLER AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS THROUGH VERY EARLY
EVENING WHERE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS CONTINUE. OTHERWISE LITTLE IF
ANY CLOUDINESS EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 90S WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW 60S.

WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODELS SHOWING A LARGE AREA OF MOISTURE
(CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF ARIZONA) REACHING AREAS OF THE
COLORADO/WYOMING/NEW MEXICO AREAS GENERALLY WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE BY THE END OF THE DAY VERY SLOWLY MOVING EAST ON TO THE
COLORADO FRONT RANGE BY 12Z THURSDAY. 850-500MB MOISTURE IS
EXTREMELY LOW AND DESPITE NAM INSTABILITY AXIS WITH LIMITED
INHIBITION ACROSS THE EASTERN 1/2 OF THE AREA HARD TO JUSTIFY ANY
PRECIPITATION CHANCES SO HAVE REMOVED THEM FOR THE DAYTIME PERIOD.
MAY SEE ISOLATED SHOWERS/MAYBE A THUNDERSTORM WEST OF A LINE FROM
NEAR YUMA TO CHEYENNE WELLS AFTER MIDNIGHT WHERE BETTER MID LEVEL
MOISTURE ARRIVES. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO UPPER 90S WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 60S TO LOW 70S. COULD SEE A FEW READINGS
AT 100 DEGREES...MAINLY ALONG THE CO/KS BORDER AREA.

THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...APPEARS THAT MOISTURE WITH PRECIP CHANCES
IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO AROUND 12Z IN THE MORNING SLOWLY MOVES EAST
THROUGH 18Z WITH SOME DECREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS FAR EASTERN
COLORADO. DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ANOTHER INCREASE IN MOISTURE
ARRIVES ACROSS COLORADO COUNTIES RE-INTRODUCING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. FOR THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS MUCH
DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST BRINGING AN
END TO THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S
TO LOW 90S WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 116 AM MDT TUE AUG 25 2015

RIDGE REMAINS FIRMLY IN PLACE FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY HOWEVER A SLOW
MOVEMENT TO THE EAST IS EXPECTED TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS WILL MAKE THEIR WAY EAST ON FRIDAY
MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THURSDAYS TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. THE RIDGE
WILL THEN BUILD BACK IN LATER ON FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY WITH DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY. A LEE SIDE LOW
PRESSURE AREA WILL DEEPEN INTO A WEAK 700MB TROUGH AS WE HEAD INTO
TUESDAY. RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BECOME A POSSIBILITY
ONCE MORE MAINLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON TUESDAY. BOTH THE ECMWF
AND GFS ARE IN VERY CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH REGARDS TO THE OVERALL
STRUCTURE AND TEMPORAL EVOLUTION OF THE HIGH THROUGH THE ENTIRE
FORECAST PERIOD... AS WELL AS THE EVENTUAL MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST.
TEMPERATURES DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL LIKELY BE AROUND TO
JUST ABOVE THE SEASONAL AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 315 AM MDT TUE AUG 25 2015

FOR KGLD AND KMCK VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. FOR KGLD
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD JUST BELOW
12KT THRESHOLD AT TIMES. FOR KMCK EAST AND SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO
10KTS EXPECTED AT TIMES.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 315 AM MDT TUE AUG 25 2015

WEDNESDAY...AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE STILL EXPECTED
TO FALL SLIGHTLY BELOW 20 PERCENT GENERALLY WEST OF A LINE FROM
NEAR BENKELMAN NEBRASKA TO GOODLAND AND TRIBUNE KANSAS. IT IS
POSSIBLE FOR A FEW LOCATIONS TO HAVE HUMIDITY AS LOW AS 15
PERCENT. AT THE SAME TIME SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING 25 TO 30 MPH
ARE EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO A HEIGHTENED
THREAT FOR NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DR
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...99
FIRE WEATHER...99


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