Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 251743
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1143 AM MDT SAT JUL 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 258 AM MDT SAT JUL 25 2015

A RIDGE WILL RESIDE OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN
SHIFT EAST INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. A
SURFACE TROUGH WILL PERSIST NEAR EASTERN COLORADO THROUGH THIS TIME.

SOME MORNING SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LINGER FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE
EASTERN FA BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. THIS AFTERNOON ANOTHER
WEAK SHORTWAVE SHOULD RIDE OVER THE RIDGE AND TRIGGER A STORMS
MAINLY OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE FA WHERE THERE WILL BE
CHANCE POPS. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WILL EXIST ACROSS THE REST OF THE
FA. DECREASING POPS SHOULD BE THE TREND TONIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE
EXITS THE AREA.  SUBSIDENCE WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY MORNING WITH NIL
POPS ACROSS THE FA.  THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL RIDE UP THE RIDGE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  CHANCE POPS LOOK GOOD FOR THE FAR NORTHWEST FA
WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE FA. POPS INCREASE TO
HIGH CHANCES ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE
MOVES FURTHER EAST.  MONDAY MORNING SHOULD BE DRY WITH NIL POPS
ACROSS MOST OF THE FA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR EAST WHERE SOME
STORMS MAY LINGER BRIEFLY.  POPS INCREASE FROM SLIGHT CHANCE TO
CHANCE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVES
THROUGH SOUTHWEST FLOW.

BOUNDARY LAYER RH INCREASES TO 90 PERCENT OVER THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE FA EARLY THIS MORNING AND THEN DISSIPATES AROUND
15Z. PLAN TO INSERT SOME PATCHY FOG INTO THIS AREA.

MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 90S TODAY AND THEN INCREASE TO
THE MID AND UPPER 90S SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH AROUND 100 POSSIBLE
IN THE EASTERN FA MONDAY. HEAT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED IN THE
EAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MIN TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID
60S TO 70 WITH SOME LOWER 70S IN THE EAST MONDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 AM MDT SAT JUL 25 2015

AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD MODELS SHOW AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW HEIGHT CENTER OVER WESTERN MONTANA... WITH A TROUGH
EXTENDING TO THE SOUTHWEST... AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING
FROM NORTHERN TEXAS NORTHEAST OVER THE OHIO VALLEY REGION. THE
RIDGE WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND OVER THE NEW ENGLAND AREA BY THE END
OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW THE LOW TO MOVE EASTWARD AS WELL INTO
THE CENTRAL CANADA REGION. THIS WILL CAUSE A UPPER LEVEL ZONAL
PATTERN FOR THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND PUT THE
LOCAL AREA UNDER AN AREA OF STRONG UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW. BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REBUILD OVER THE TRI
STATE AREA.

WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS LOOK TO ROTATE AROUND THESE MAIN UPPER
LEVEL FEATURES. THIS WILL PRODUCE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DAILY DURING THE EXTENDED.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL EARLY IN THE PERIOD... THEN
DROP TO BELOW NORMAL DURING THE MIDDLE BEHIND A COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN PLAINS SYSTEM. A GRADUALLY WARMING
BACK TO NEAR NORMAL IS EXPECTED TOWARDS THE END OF THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1143 AM MDT SAT JUL 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD. NEAR-TERM
AVIATION THREAT IS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. FORECAST STORM
INITIATION ALONG A TROUGH AXIS NEARING THE COLORADO BORDER AND
ALONG A LINGERING FRONT/OUTFLOW EXTENDING EAST ACROSS NORTHWEST
KANSAS BY 21Z. STORMS MAY CONSOLIDATE INTO AN MCS...SLIDING
SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING. INCLUDED VCTS MENTION AT GOODLAND BUT
OMITTED MENTION AT KMCK AS MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH.
TOMORROW MORNING...THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS IN THE
REGION. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO PREVAIL THESE
CONDITIONS. TOMORROW AFTERNOON...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD ROLL ACROSS
THE HIGH PLAINS ONCE AGAIN BUT THIS IS AFTER THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...BW
AVIATION...RRH



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