Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 212007

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
207 PM MDT Fri Oct 21 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 207 PM MDT Fri Oct 21 2016

Across the forecast area...a cold start to the morning has given way
to a great Fall afternoon as filtered high clouds moving across the
region allowing for a range of temps currently in the 60s
the lower to mid 70s for central and western portions of the CWA.
NNW downslope winds across the aforementioned area...on the back
side of trough moving thru the area...are aiding in the difference
in afternoon temps. With several hours remaining of sunshine/daytime
heating...still think all locales will reach forecasted highs.

For tonight...another nice night is on tap for the area. Light WSW
winds will persist thru the period in addition to zonal H5/H7 flow.
Looking for above normal overnight lows in the upper 30s to around

Going into Saturday...building H5/H7 mid level ridge over the
region...combined with increasing southerly flow thru the day will
give the region above normal conditions with daytime highs reaching
into the lower 80s for most locales. Along with the strong
WAA...lack of any appreciable moisture will allow Td`s to drop into
the 20s east...up to the mid 30s for central and eastern zones. Low
RH readings will result with 15 percent or less for NE CO and
adjacent counties...while the remaining counties will see a 16-24
percent range. Winds across the CWA...especially by the afternoon
could briefly reach around 20 mph from west to east...raising Fire
Wx concerns. Please see Fire Wx section below.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 207 PM MDT Fri Oct 21 2016

This period will continue to be quiet despite the passage of a cold
front Saturday night/Sunday morning, Tuesday, and Friday. The upper
level ridge will move very little from its location over the
Central/Southern Plains during this period. Several upper level
troughs will move through the flow and flatten the ridge out.

The strongest trough will move through Tuesday but will be brief
enough to not bring much a cold shot behind it.  Lift will develop
over the Tri-State Area as this trough moves through.  However the
environment will be so dry that no rainfall is expect except over
the far east part of the area where the environment will have a
deeper saturated layer.

The strongest cold front will move through Friday.  However the
upper level trough following the cold front will be so broad and
laminar that no rainfall is expected with its passage.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1135 AM MDT Fri Oct 21 2016


Precip/Wx....None expected.

Winds........For KGLD...NNW around 10kts thru 02z Saturday...then
SSE around 10kts thru 16z Saturday. From 16z Saturday onward...SW
around 10kts. For KMCK...SW becoming NW by 20z around 10kts. By
02z Saturday...light/variable thru 15z Saturday. From 15z
onward...SE around 10kts.


Issued at 207 PM MDT Fri Oct 21 2016

A very dry air mass along with above normal temperatures...will
lead to afternoon RH values dropping to 15 percent or lower for
parts of our CWA...mainly NE Colorado and adjacent counties.
Daytime winds are not expected to reach or exceed critical
criteria. We could have a few brief periods of 20 mph gusts
midday/early afternoon Saturday, but this would likely occur
while RH values are still 20 percent or higher. Critical fire
weather conditions are not expected at this time.




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