Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 292050

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
150 PM MST Tue Nov 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 150 PM MST Tue Nov 29 2016

As of 1 PM MST/2 PM CST, temperatures have reached the mid 30s to
mid 40s across the region. An area of low pressure located over
central Minnesota is the dominant feature in upper levels while a
disturbance moving around the back side of it brings flurries to the
forecast this afternoon. Cloud cover has increased throughout the
day from north to south, wrapping around the upper system as upper
level winds mixed down. Reports of gusts from 40 to 50 mph have been
common this afternoon.

Flurries are expected to come to an end this evening. However,
northwest winds do not drop off and instead stay up in the 15 to 25
mph range through midnight across much of the area while
temperatures drop down into the 20s. As the upper system reaches the
Great Lakes overnight, cloud cover decreases from the west, yielding
sunny to mostly sunny skies tomorrow.

Slightly warmer temperatures, with highs in the 40s, are forecast on
Wednesday. The upper low makes its way into Canada and the region
remains under northwest flow both at the surface and aloft. Winds
pick up throughout the morning, peaking in the afternoon with gusts
of 25 to 35 mph. Despite these windy conditions, relative humidity
values stay in the mid 20s and above, so it does not appear that
fire weather criteria will be met. As for precipitation, dry weather
prevails while cloud cover continues to push eastward and subsidence
sets in.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 143 PM MST Tue Nov 29 2016

Cold and dry weather will prevail Wednesday night through Friday
with persistent northwest flow both aloft and at the surface. Flow
becomes a bit more westerly as we head into Saturday and
southwesterly on Sunday in response to a relatively fast moving
shortwave. There will be a slgt chc of light snow as the trough
pushes across the CWA mainly in the southernmost counties with the
axis of the wave remaining well to our south. There is still some
uncertainty regarding the track; however, due to model
inconsistencies and a slow trend northward. Temperatures through
Friday will slowly warm each day with high temperatures generally in
the upper 30s to lower 40s. Low temperatures will fall into the
middle to upper teens Wednesday night through Friday night.

Dry weather persists into the weekend with highs climbing into the
50s and lows in the lower to middle 20s under a fast moving
shortwave ridge. Another, potentially strong cold front will
approach the region late Sunday into Monday. There is a large amount
of disagreement between the global models at this time; however,
medium to long range guidance has been indicating the possibility of
a strong cold front over the past several days. At this time, the
front looks to move across the area late Monday into Tuesday and
could potentially bring snow to the tri-state area. It is far too
early to estimate the amount of available moisture the system will
have access to as global guidance is not yet consistent upon a
solution. Top down analysis; however, is favorable for potentially
moderate to heavy snowfall based on the track of the system. Any
variation of the track would shift the better PoPs out of the CWA.
In either case, very cold air will likely pour into the region. Stay
tuned for further updates.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1027 AM MST Tue Nov 29 2016

Vfr conditions are expected to prevail at both KGLD and KMCK
through the TAF period. Cloud cover increases today before
clearing overnight. Gusty northwest winds prevail in the
afternoon, decreasing some this evening. However, winds will not
completely drop off and will stay up around 15 to 20 mph. No
precipitation is anticipated.




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