Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
FXUS63 KGLD 211844
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1244 PM MDT WED SEP 21 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 1210 PM MDT Wed Sep 21 2016
Midday analysis of satellite and radar indicate only partial
clearing for the western half of the CWA with very light isolated showers
in the eastern portions of the area. High resolution data does not
develop much in the way of precipitation through the afternoon
hours with only isolated slgt chc to chc showers expected through
the afternoon and into the evening. Should start to see some
isolated activity in the east and southeastern portions of the CWA
with areas west and northwest remaining dry.
Temperatures have been steadily rising through the morning and we
remain on track to reach our afternoon high in the lower 90s. Lows
tonight should fall into the middle 50s to middle 60s but this
will be cloud cover dependent as the temperatures will be slower
to respond in areas with persistent cloud cover.
Another warmer than average day is in store tomorrow with high
pressure positioned just far enough west to continue the influence
on our temperatures. Subsidence on the western fringe of the ridge
combined with relatively dry air at the surface will keep
precipitation out of the forecast through Thursday afternoon.
Highs should once more reach the lower 90s.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 200 AM MDT Wed Sep 21 2016
The main focus for the long term period continues to be on the
strong low pressure moving over the region Saturday. There is a slow
moving cold front associated with it that will move through the CWA
Saturday. Storm development is expected to develop along and east of
the front; due to the dry air behind the front precipitation is
limited. Current model runs have a strong low level jet moving over
the region but other instability factors are limited. Any storms
that develop will likely be synoptically driven.
The trough begins to move out and exit the region to the east,
northeast through the remainder of the extended period. The GFS has
the region dry with a strong ridge moving towards the region from
the west. Yet, since the EC is slower it is showing some slight
chances for PoPs Sunday night through Monday night with the
lingering closed low still impacting the region. Decided to pull all
PoPs during those times.
Temperatures are expected to be in the 70s through the entire
period, with some locations still in the 80s Saturday with the
approaching cold front.
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1126 AM MDT Wed Sep 21 2016
VFR conditions will prevail at both TAF sites through the
afternoon and into the evening with middle to high cloud cover
gradually diminishing into the evening. WS mention a KMCK
beginning around 06Z. Winds will gradually shift to become
southeasterly as the day progresses.