Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 250118
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
618 PM MST MON NOV 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 618 PM MST MON NOV 24 2014

UPDATE ISSUED TO ADJUST SOME TEMPERATURES AROUND THE CWA AS REGION
REMAINS UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. PRECIP ECHOES FROM
EARLY THAT GAVE SOME AREAS LIGHT FLURRIES/SPRINKLES HAVE
DISSIPATED WITH SUNSET...AND STILL DO EXPECT A SLOW DECREASE IN
AREAL COVERAGE OF CLOUDS THRU THE NIGHT ALLOWING FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS TO DROP INTO THE 20F RANGE FROM THE CURRENT 30S. REST OF
FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 207 PM MST MON NOV 24 2014

SHORT WAVE TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM WYOMING INTO COLORADO
THIS AFTERNOON IS TRIGGERING LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OVER EASTERN
COLORADO...AND ACROSS KS-NE WEST OF HIGHWAY 25. SCATTERED PRECIP
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...DISSIPATING RAPIDLY AT
SUNSET. MOST AREAS BENEATH THESE SHOWERS WILL RECEIVE ONLY TRACE
AMOUNTS...WITH BEST CHANCES AT 0.01" ACROSS OUR THREE COLORADO
COUNTIES. WINDS CURRENTLY GUSTING TO 30 MPH WILL DIMINISH RAPIDLY
AT SUNSET AS WELL.

THE NEXT SYSTEM TO HAVE AN IMPACT ON OUR AREA IS NOW APPROACHING
THE PAC NW COAST AND WILL DROP SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
INTO THE DAKOTAS-NEBRASKA TOMORROW. A STRONG UPPER JET /250 MB/
WILL MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY...ACCOMPANIED BY
EXTENSIVE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. THIS GIVES SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO
THE DEPTH OF MIXING AND HOW MUCH WIND CAN BE BROUGHT DOWN TO THE
SURFACE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY HAVE SOUTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 30
MPH IN THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY.

GFS IS QUITE BULLISH ON PRECIP TUESDAY EVENING COMPARED TO THE
EC/NAM. HARD TO RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY GIVEN THE FORECAST 165
KT 250 MB JET...HOWEVER THE GFS LOCATION IS BENEATH THE RIGHT
FRONT JET QUAD. CURRENT PRECIP FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE OF MODEL
GUIDANCE.

850 MB TEMPS WARM UP 3-4 DEGREES C TUESDAY AFTERNOON COMPARED WITH
TODAY...BUT WITH EXPECTED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...ONLY RAISED FCST
HIGHS A FEW DEGREES OVER THIS AFTERNOON LEANING TOWARD MAV
GUIDANCE PLUS A DEGREE OR TWO.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 PM MST MON NOV 24 2014

MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM WILL BE HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF THE
REST OF THE PERIOD. SATELLITE IS SHOWING AN AMPLIFIED FLOW FROM
THE PACIFIC INTO NORTH AMERICA. THE FLOW HAS AMPLIFIED SOME OVER
THE LAST 24 HOURS.

AT JET LEVEL...POWERFUL JET MOVING FROM THE WEST AT THIS TIME. AT
THIS TIME THE GFS FOLLOWED BY THE CANADIAN AND NAM LOOK TO
HANDLING THE 150 KNOT PLUS SPEEDS THE BEST. AT MID LEVELS...THE
MODELS INITIALIZED WELL. NAM AND SREF WERE HANDLING THE SURFACE
WIND AND SURFACE PATTERN THE BEST. THE GFS...CANADIAN...AND UKMET
WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE REST OF THE OUTPUT ON THE LOW
LEVEL THERMAL FIELD.

TUESDAY NIGHT...LIGHT PRECIPITATION REFERENCED IN THE SHORT TERM
DISCUSSION WILL COME TO AN END RATHER QUICKLY AND EARLY IN THIS
PERIOD.

AFTER THE PRECIPITATION ENDS...THERE LOOKS TO BE A DECENT AMOUNT
OF CLOUD COVER AROUND DUE TO THE NEARBY JET. DOWNSLOPE WINDS STAY
STRONG ENOUGH ALONG WITH SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION THROUGH MOST OF
THE NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. THIS WILL KEEP THE
MINS MILD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...UPPER JET MOVES EAST OF THE AREA BY
LATE THE NIGHT BEFORE INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. NEXT COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH VERY EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND THROUGH MOST OF
THE AREA. THIS LOOKS TO BE FASTER THAN YESTERDAY AND GUIDANCE IS
COOLER THAN IT WAS YESTERDAY. OVERALL LOWERED THE HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR THE DAY FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

MODELS SHOWING THE FRONT RETREATING BACK TO THE EAST DURING THE
NIGHT WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION OCCURRING AS IT RETREATS. THIS WILL
ALSO MAKE FOR ANOTHER TOUGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST. TENDED TO USE A
BLEND OF THE NAM/MET/GFS/MAV FOR THIS.

THURSDAY...MODELS WANT TO PUSH THE COLD AIR BACK TO THE WEST BUT
ALL DIFFER ON HOW FAR. CONSEQUENTLY THERE ARE HUGE DIFFERENCES IN
THE LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE FIELDS. TENDED TO SIDE TOWARD THE NAM A
LITTLE MORE SINCE IT DOES HAVE TERRAIN BUT ONCE AGAIN COULD END UP
A WITH A LARGE GRADIENT OF TEMPERATURES ACROSS MY AREA WITH A HIGH
RISK FOR BEING WAY OFF.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT
TODAY THAN YESTERDAY. HOWEVER THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES IN
HOW TO HANDLE THE NEXT DEVELOPING UPPER TROUGH NEAR THE WEST
COAST LATE IN THE PERIOD. IN REGARDS TO THAT TROUGH...THE
ENSEMBLES WOULD SUPPORT A SLOWER AND FURTHER WEST DEVELOPING
SYSTEM.

FLOW ALOFT REMAINS WEST TO SOUTHWEST DURING THIS PERIOD.
CONSIDERING THE FAST WESTERLY FLOW AND NO SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE
RETURN WOULD EXPECT LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALTHOUGH
LIFT FROM THE JET WILL BE AROUND THE AREA FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. HOWEVER WITH LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AT LOW LEVELS
THIS WILL JUST PRODUCE CLOUDS.

DUE TO THE MODELS HANDLING THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS BETTER FOR
OUR AREA...THEY ARE HANDLING THE RESULTING SURFACE REFLECTION
MUCH BETTER AS WELL. COLD AIR COMPLETELY RETREATS BY LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT TO EARLY FRIDAY WITH A NICE WARMUP EXPECTED. THE NEXT FRONT
APPROACHES ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER IT LOOKS LIKE PEAK HEATING WILL
OCCUR BEFORE IT ARRIVES PER THE CURRENT MODEL OUTPUT. THINK A
SLOWER ARRIVING FRONT MAKES SENSE SINCE A STRONG CROSS MOUNTAIN
COMPONENT WILL CAUSE A STRONGER LEE TROUGH TO OCCUR. THIS SHOULD
SLOW UP THE FRONT. SO THE WARM TEMPERATURES LOOK REASONABLE AT
THIS TIME.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COLDER ON SUNDAY. MODELS SHOW SOME
MODIFICATION IN THE TEMPERATURES MONDAY. NOT SURE HOW MUCH THAT
WILL OCCUR BUT PROJECTED FLOW SETUP WOULD SAY THE COLDER WILL BE
SHORT LIVED. THE GRIDS PRODUCED BY THE INIT LOOK REASONABLE AND
THEREFORE EXPECT TO MAKE LITTLE IF ANY CHANGES TO IT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 448 PM MST MON NOV 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR BOTH TAF SITES THRU FORECAST PERIOD.
THRU 06Z TUESDAY...BKN070 WITH SOME VCSH...EITHER --SW/--RW WITH
NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. FROM 06Z-21Z TUESDAY...SCT200 THEN
BKN050-060 AFT 21Z. NNW WINDS 10-20KTS THRU 12Z TUESDAY...THEN
SHIFTING TO WSW/WNW 10-20KTS.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...DLF
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...JN



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