Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 190519

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1119 PM MDT WED MAY 18 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 244 PM MDT Wed May 18 2016

An extensive CU field has develop this afternoon as a moist
layer persists across the region between 4-8kft AGL. Expect cloud
cover to diminish overnight before another CU field develops
again through the day on Thursday. The surface pressure gradient
over the forecast area as surface high pressure moves east and
pressures begin to lower over eastern Colorado in response to the
approaching upper low. Gusty south winds are expected as a result
Thursday afternoon. South to southeast winds will bring
additional moisture into mainly the eastern sections of the
forecast area while the southerly winds will help in general with
warming temperatures well into the 60s across the region. Cloud
cover is expected to limit warming somewhat over the southeastern
portion of the forecast area. However, with greater moisture
available over the east, expect isolated showers and
thunderstorms to move into the far southeast portion of the
forecast area from the south southwest during the afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 227 PM MDT Wed May 18 2016

For this extended forecast period, a return to much warmer weather
remains a sure bet. A ridge of high pressure and days of southerly
flow assure this warming trend. Differences among guidance remain on
the position of a dryline that is expected to develop and waiver
across the region. Locations behind the dryline should be slightly
warmer and less humid. Locations east of the dryline should be
marginally cooler due to potential morning stratus and increased

For precipitation chances, the first period to watch in the extended
is Friday morning. Substantial moisture advection should be underway
and forecast soundings indicate saturation below 750 mb. Widespread
stratus seems inevitable but remain a little unsure about light
rain, drizzle and fog potential. Decided to include slight chance
pops with light rain/drizzle/patchy fog in the weather grids. A cap
and overall lack of instability should prevent thunderstorm

Attention then turns to this weekend`s storm chances. The 500 mb
high pressure ridge that builds over the Great Plains Thursday and
Friday slides east this weekend. In addition, a large trough of low
pressure spreads over the western United States. Upper level
impulses swing around this upper low, providing enough forcing for
thunderstorm development each afternoon/evening. Further, a dryline
should develop over the region. Persistent moisture advection allows
instability to build and provide an environment favorable for severe
weather. Projections forecast SBCAPE of 1500-2500 J/KG, 0-6 KM Bulk
Shear of 20-30 kts Saturday, increasing to 35-50 kts Sunday, 850-500
mb lapse rates of 7-8 C/KM and 0-3 KM Helicity of 100-200 m2/s2. All
of these parameters are highly suggestive of severe thunderstorms.
Decided there was enough confidence to include a severe thunderstorm
mention in the forecast for Saturday afternoon/evening and once
again Sunday afternoon/evening. Sunday appears to be the day to
really focus on as a cap should still be in place Saturday, limiting
convection to more isolated instances. Locations east of the dryline
will be under the highest threat for severe thunderstorms but
forecast guidance possesses some 50+ mile differences on the
location of the dryline. Do think it is a safe bet to suggest
southwest Nebraska and northwest Kansas will be under a threat of
severe weather but east Colorado remains in doubt. Stay tuned!

Beyond Sunday, another round of thunderstorms should be expected
once again Tuesday. Monday should be fairly quiet at Sunday`s
activity should help stabilize the atmosphere some and the dryline
should surge east, taking the instability with it. Return flow
Monday night should lead to an instability build up once again. A
strong shortwave trough should move through and provide ample lift
once again for thunderstorm development. Unfortunately, some
uncertainty remains on the location of a potential cold front and
dryline. For now, will not mention severe weather but Tuesday
appears to be a day that also warrants watching.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1119 PM MDT Wed May 18 2016

VFR conditions should prevail at both KGLD and KMCK through the
TAF period. There is still a small chance for a period of
2500-3000 FT ceilings at KGLD between 15-18Z...however main axis
of lower level moisture will be south and confidence in a
prevailing ceiling is low. South winds are also still expected to
be gusty during the daytime period, with gusts 25-30kt possible at
both terminals. Gusts should diminish after sunset Thursday,
though winds will remain 12-14kt. Very good low level moisture
will begin to move into the region by the end of the TAF period,
however any possible vis/cig restrictions will be outside of the
current period.


.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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