Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBUF 271750
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
150 PM EDT SAT SEP 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND PROVIDING VERY PLEASANT FALL WEATHER
ALONG WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE FULL
SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON. 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE 1-2C WARMER SO
EXPECT HIGHS TO BE ABOUT 3 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. THIS WILL
YIELD HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH LOW TO MID 70S
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. STRONG DIFFERENTIAL HEATING WILL AGAIN
PRODUCE LAKE BREEZES THAT WILL KEEP THE LAKESHORES COOLER.

SKIES WILL AGAIN BE CLEAR THIS EVENING...BUT SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL
APPROACH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL HAVE ONLY A
SLIGHT IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES...BUT A GENERALLY WARMER ATMOSPHERE
WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY WARMER LOW TEMPERATURES. LOWS SHOULD BE IN
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. THE HIGH CLOUDS MAY LIMIT...BUT NOT
PREVENT...FOG IN THE SOUTHERN TIER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAS PROVIDED
PLEASANT...SUNNY WEATHER IN RECENT DAYS WILL WEAKEN AS AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE ADVANCES EASTWARD FROM THE PLAINS STATES. THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL STILL REMAIN DRY AS THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTAINS
LITTLE MOISTURE AND THERE WILL REMAIN SOME RESEMBLANCE OF SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST. EXPECT A FEW ADDITIONAL CLOUDS
SUNDAY...THOUGH REMAINING DRY THROUGH THE DAY.

PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND QUIET AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL EASE SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA LATER SUNDAY NIGHT...REACHING THE
VICINITY OF LAKE ONTARIO BY MONDAY MORNING. THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE
AND BETTER LIFT IS FOUND BEHIND THIS FRONT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MOST
OF THE REGION TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY EVEN AS THE COLD
FRONT DROPS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA. THERE WILL
BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND
INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY LATER MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS THE RIBBON
OF MOISTURE AND MID LEVEL LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE DROPS
ACROSS THE REGION.

TEMPERATURES AT 850 HPA WILL AVERAGE AROUND 14C ON SUNDAY WHICH WITH
A DRY ATMOSPHERE AND DRY GROUND WILL ALLOW FOR MID TO UPPER 70S
ACROSS THE REGION. AGAIN WILL AIM FOR JUST ABOVE MODEL GUIDANCE FOR
HIGHS ON SUNDAY. ON MONDAY AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TEMPERATURES
ALOFT WILL DROP TO AROUND 12C...WHICH WITH LIKELY ADDITIONAL CLOUD
COVER...ESPECIALLY EAST TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. STILL PLEASANT AFTERNOONS AND
ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ON TUESDAY THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE WASHED OUT
TO OUR SOUTH...WHILE ALOFT AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND RIBBON OF
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO PASS THROUGH. THERE IS SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT
ON TUESDAY. THE CONSENSUS OF THE 00Z GFS/CANADIAN HAS THE MOISTURE
LARGELY ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK WITH DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH
ANOTHER CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE AIRMASS ADVANCING ACROSS WESTERN
NEW YORK. HOWEVER THE ECMWF...WITH EARLY SUPPORT FROM THE 00Z NAM
DISPLAYS THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE LAGGING OVER THE LAKE HURON
REGION TUESDAY MORNING. THE 00Z ECMWF EVEN HAS A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL
LOW FORMING TUESDAY...WHICH WOULD GIVE LIMITED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
EVEN AS FAR WESTWARD AS THE LAKE ERIE REGION. WILL CONTINUE WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE DRYING THE REGION OUT
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

850MB TEMPS WILL AVERAGE AROUND +10C...TRANSLATING TO HIGH TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND STRONG CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TUE NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT...PROVIDING ANOTHER COUPLE DAYS OF DRY AND PLEASANT FALL
WEATHER. HIGH TEMPS WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70
UNDER LIGHT NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. HIGH TEMPS WILL REBOUND
SOME INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S THURSDAY AS A SOUTHERLY FLOW TAKES
HOLD ACROSS THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST. EXPECT LOWS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND WITH
ADDED CLOUD COVER. MODELS DIVERGE AT THIS POINT WITH THE GFS
BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION BY
LATER IN THE DAY...WHILE THE SLOWER ECMWF KEEPS THE AREA DRY FOR THE
ENTIRE DAY. WILL HOLD OFF ON CHANCE POPS UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT AND KEEP
THE REGION DRY THROUGH THE DAY. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S THOUGH A SOUTHERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT MAY ALLOW FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO
TO PUSH INTO THE MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SKC THROUGH
THIS EVENING ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. OVERNIGHT A FEW VERY THIN
CIRRUS WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD WESTERN NY AS A BAND OF WEAK UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND MOISTURE SPREADS NORTHEAST OUT OF THE OHIO
VALLEY. TYPICAL SOUTHERN TIER VALLEY FOG WILL FORM ONCE AGAIN LATER
TONIGHT AND LAST THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING SUNDAY WITH AREAS OF
VLIFR. AT KJHW EXPECT JUST SOME BRIEF LIGHT BR WITH A FEW HOURS
OF IFR POSSIBLE JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK...SIMILAR TO EARLY THIS
MORNING. ELSEWHERE THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY VERY THIN FOG BUT THIS
SHOULD REMAIN SPOTTY AND ODDS ARE WILL NOT IMPACT ANY OF THE OTHER
TAF SITES.

RELATIVELY THIN HIGH CIRRUS WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION
ON SUNDAY WITH VFR PREVAILING AFTER THE MORNING FOG BURNS OFF. THE
LIGHT SYNOPTIC SCALE FLOW WILL ALLOW LOCAL LAKE BREEZES TO DEVELOP
WITH WINDS BECOMING ONSHORE ALONG ALL THE LAKESHORES.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...VFR EXCEPT FOR LOCALIZED IFR IN SOUTHERN TIER VALLEY FOG
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
THURSDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL RESULT IN LIGHT
WINDS AND MINIMAL WAVES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...JM/THOMAS
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...APFFEL





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