Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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195
FXUS61 KBUF 281742
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
142 PM EDT Fri Apr 28 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the region will be responsible for a pleasant,
but cooler day with some sunshine. A frontal boundary will push
towards our region tonight, and linger over the region through the
weekend, with clouds and periodic light rain showers.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Clouds continuing to erode with only some passing clouds level
clouds across the region this afternoon. The afternoon will remain
comfortable with temperatures in the 60s to lower 70s with
lower humidity values. Winds will be light from the southwest,
though an occasional gust to 25 mph will be possible. As
moisture increases from the midwest late this afternoon, clouds
will again begin to form and fill in across western New York.

Tonight another cold front will sag across the region, this from an
area of low pressure near James Bay. As moisture increases from the
south a few light rain showers will be possible, especially
south of Lake Ontario. Lows tonight will drop back into the low
to mid 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A baroclinic zone will become established across the forecast area
Saturday and Sunday as we will be sitting on the northern periphery
of a ridge just off the southeastern coast. Weak waves will ripple
along this frontal boundary promoting a chance of showers through
much of the weekend. The steadiest precipitation will develop across
southern Ontario Saturday night into Sunday along an axis of warm
air advection in the mid-levels. Our region will be to the south of
this steadier rain, with more convectively driven showers across our
area. Warmer air aloft will lead to elevated instability with a few
thunderstorms are possible. However the weekend will be far from a
washout as overall forcing is weak and sporadic across our region.

Temperatures will continue to average above normal on Saturday, with
highs mainly in the 60s across the region. The surface frontal
boundary will strengthen Saturday night with increasing winds and a
sharper temperature contrast. Cold air advection will drop
temperatures to the upper 30s to lower 40s north of the I-90
corridor from Buffalo to Syracuse, with temperatures remaining
around 50 across the western Southern Tier. By Sunday the boundary
will evolve into a warm front pushing northward as a deep low
pressure system develops across the central plains. A sharp
temperature difference can be expected across the region as the warm
front moves northward with highs in the low 50s in the North Country
and along the lake Ontario shoreline to the mid to upper 70s across
the western Southern Tier.

By Monday, the anomalously deep low pressure system will track
through the upper Great Lakes while pushing a strong cold front
across the region Monday. Model consensus keeps the area mainly dry
Monday morning, with showers and thunderstorms likely Monday
afternoon and evening. Forecast wind profiles support organized
convection, but it is uncertain if instability will be ample to
support widespread severe weather. This does suggest at least a
potential for strong to severe thunderstorms along with locally
heavy rainfall. Showers and thunderstorms will taper off from west
to east late Monday night. Summer-like temperatures will also return
to the region with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s. This is
warmer than consensus guidance which is probably too cool
considering 850mb will be around +15C.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
An unseasonably deep surface low passing northwest of our region
will help usher in much cooler weather with below normal
temperatures expected. This airmass will arrive behind the cold
front on Tuesday along with a chance of some scattered showers and
gusty winds. Strong cold air advection with a source region over
central Quebec will lower 850mb temps to around zero. This will
result in highs only in the 50s on Tuesday.

Tuesday will be a windy day, with a 45-50 kt 850mb flow potentially
supporting advisory level gusts to 50 mph. Ultimately this will
depend on the track and strength of the surface low, and if there is
any sunshine to help mix these winds aloft to the surface. This
threat of gusty winds is included in the Hazardous Weather Outlook.

Winds will slacken off Tuesday night with below normal temperatures
then remaining in place Tuesday night through Wednesday and likely
Thursday with continued cold air advection as a mid-level trough
axis shifts east across our region followed by another trough
digging into the central states. Cool air instability showers will
be possible through Wednesday with the coldest core of below normal
air aloft passing by. Have continued low to slight chances of
showers for this. On Thursday medium range models show the digging
trough over the central states will kick off a surface low along the
Appalachians midweek which could lift some showers into our forecast
area from the south by Thursday. Lows Tuesday and Wednesday nights
look to dip into the upper 30s to low 40s then highs on Wednesday
and Thursday only rising into the low to mid 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Widespread VFR conditions this afternoon with only some passing
cirrus level clouds. Winds will be light, though some occasional
southwest gusts to 20 knots will be possible, northeast of the
lakes.

Tonight clouds will thicken as a frontal boundary drops across
the region. Initially these clouds will be mid level, but as
moisture increases across the So. Tier, some IFR CIGS will be
possible late tonight.

Outlook...
Saturday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Sunday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of showers.
Monday...MVFR to locally IFR with showers and thunderstorms likely.
Tuesday and Wednesday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of showers.

&&

.MARINE...
Waves will approach 2 feet on the eastern waters of the Great
Lakes this afternoon. A frontal boundary will become draped
across the Lakes to start this weekend, though winds and waves
will remain light and minimal.

Looking a bit further out, strengthening easterly winds may bring
Small Craft Advisory conditions to the western lake waters for
Sunday. Another, stronger storm system may bring another round of
thunderstorms early next week, with gale force winds possible behind
a cold front on Tuesday.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Northeast winds will increase Sunday, with waves building across
western portions of Lake Ontario. This combined with already
high levels on Lake Ontario has the potential to result in
lakeshore flooding along the shoreline. The highest waves are
expected in Niagara and Orleans counties. There is still
considerably uncertainty concerning wave heights since even a
slight shift to the more easterly direction would push the
highest waves to the Canadian shoreline.

&&

.CLIMATE...
The last days of April will finish with above normal temperatures,
warm enough that it will send our climate sites towards a top
10 warmest April on record. The degree of anomalous warmth has
been greater towards the west, where climate site Buffalo may
near the warmest April on record. Below are the warmest Aprils
on record.


Buffalo

Rank....Value (F).....Year

1........51.3.........1921
2........51.1.........2010
3........51.0.........1955
4........50.9.........2008
5........50.8.........1878

Current April average temperature through April 27th: 50.3F


Rochester

Rank....Value (F).....Year

1........52.6.........1878
2........52.5.........1921
3........52.4.........2010
4........52.3.........2008
5........51.4.........1915

Current April average temperature through April 27th: 51.2F


Watertown

Rank....Value (F).....Year

1........49.1.........1987
2........48.7.........1955
3........48.7.........2010
4........48.3.........1968
5........48.2.........2008

Current April average temperature through April 27th: 47.4F

Temperature records for Buffalo and Rochester begin 1871, while
Watertown`s history is a bit shorter, with temperature records
beginning in 1949.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS/TMA
NEAR TERM...THOMAS/TMA
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...APFFEL/SMITH
AVIATION...THOMAS/TMA
MARINE...THOMAS/TMA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...Apffel
CLIMATE...THOMAS



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