Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 262032
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
332 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL MOVE UP THE EAST COAST
TONIGHT AND DEEPEN INTO A NOREASTER ON TUESDAY. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH TUESDAY. THE NEXT CLIPPER ARRIVES
BY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
THE SNOW FROM SYSTEM THAT MOVED THROUGH LAST NIGHT AND THIS MORNING
HAS MOVED EAST. MOISTURE WILL BE CONTINUING OVER NW PA AND THAT
COULD CAUSE SOME SNOW SHOWERS. THE AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. ELSEWHERE
OVER NE OH THE MOISTURE WILL NOT BE THAT HIGH BUT THE LAKE AND 850
MB TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME FLURRIES
OR SNOW SHOWERS. SINCE IT IS COLD A .01 OR SO COULD CAUSE HALF AN
INCH OF SNOW. OVER NORTHWEST OHIO IT WILL BE DRY WITH VARIABLE
AMOUNTS OF CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY OR
TUESDAY EVENING OVER NE OH AND NW PA. ELSEWHERE DRY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE BUILDING IN TUESDAY NIGHT AND THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER CLIPPER
APPROACHES. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SOME
LIGHT SNOW COULD SNEAK INTO NW OH. THE TRACK OF THE LOW IS IN
QUESTION ALONG WITH THE PRECIPITATION TYPE. AT THIS TIME THE LOW
SEEMS TO MOVE ALONG THE LAKESHORE. MOST MODELS TRY TO KEEP IT SNOW
OVER THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA AND EITHER RAIN OR SNOW OVER
THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. THIS DOES NOT SEEM RIGHT BASED ON HOW MUCH
WARMING ALOFT WILL OCCUR COMBINED WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW.
INTRODUCED SOME FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET INTO PART OF NW OH. TALKED
ABOUT THIS STORM IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. THIS SYSTEM
WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BOTH MODELS IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT MOVING THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM INTO NY STATE BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY...AND OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST BY FRIDAY EVENING.   WHICH MEANS SHOULD BE LINGERING SNOW IN
THE EAST FRIDAY MORNING...GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING INTO LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS AS THE 850MB TEMPS PLUNGE TO -16C.   AT THE UPPER
LEVELS LONGWAVE TROUGH SETTLES OVER NERN US ALLOWING ANOTHER BLAST
OF ARCTIC AIR.  LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BACK EDGE OF SNOW HAS STALLED AS COASTAL LOW OFF CAROLINA COAST
BEGINS TO MOVE NORTH. LAKE ENHANCED SNOW WILL CONTINUE IN THE
EXTREME EAST OVERNIGHT...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
ACCUMULATIONS.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OHIO AND NWRN PA
TUESDAY AND THEN AGAIN ON THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NE WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT AND TURN TO
THE NORTH AS SURFACE LOW OVER AS SURFACE LOW OVER WEST VIRGINIA IS
ABSORBED BY COASTAL LOW.  WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE LAKE.  WINDS TURN TO THE
NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DRAGS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...DJB






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