Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH
FXUS61 KCLE 230237
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1037 PM EDT SUN MAY 22 2016
High pressure centered over Michigan will drift southeast over
the local area on Monday and to the Carolinas by Tuesday morning.
The high will become stationary over the southeast states the
remainder of the week. A warm front will lift north across the
area on Wednesday and we will likely remain in a warm south flow
the second half of the week.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
A short wave was diving south across the south shore of Lake Erie
on the back side of the big upper low over the mid atlantic
states this evening. The showers have been diminishing as the
subsidence increases behind the short wave. No showers left in the
forecast area or heading this way, although a few patches of
clouds will still spiral westward across the OH PA border tonight.
Updated the hourly temperature forecast based on the current
diurnal drop but the low temperature forecast for tonight seems on
track...with some lower and mid 40s in the cooler spots. Forecast
mins are a little cooler than guidance given the diminishing
breeze, clear skies and that afternoon dew points mixed down to
the upper 30s and lower 40s in places so we have room to drop.
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A couple days of quiet weather days are in store for the area as
high pressure moves overhead on Monday. This high will slide off
to the southeast by early Tuesday allowing warm air advection to
really get going. Highs on Monday will be near normal and finally
make it above normal for Tuesday and Wednesday. Have not made any
significant changes to the precip for the middle portion of the
week. Have slowed the start of the precip down a little Tuesday
night but have have spread it into NW PA a little sooner than
previously forecast. It still looks like Wednesday night will be
be the wettest period. By that time surface dewpoints will be in
the lower 60s. Thunder appears likely. Will stay with chance pops
most of the area for now but as time nears suspect that we will
need a period of likely wording. Given the upcoming airmass change
have not strayed too far from guidance for temps.
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Little has changed from recent model runs for the thu thru sun
period. The upper ridge that tries to build over the area is
continuously hit with a series of weak upper troughs moving ne into
the ridge that the ridge never really gets established.
The only feature of significance for the period is that the models
are better depicting a back door cold front that drops down to the
lakeshore counties by wed evening. The location of this front and
corresponding wind direction could end up having a significant
effect on high temps for thu but will need more model run to run
consistency before adjusting temps down for thu.
Thus with the combination of forcing mechanism`s in place during the
period will keep chc or better pops for shra/tsra each day while
mainly southerly component winds should provide a little above
.AVIATION /00Z Monday THROUGH Friday/...
Clear skies for most tonight with high pressure slowly shifting
east. Cumulus/stratus and and showers will remain just to the
east of KYNG. Cannot rule out some early morning MVFR VSBY just
about anywhere...but confidence is low and did not place in TAFs.
A scattered to briefly broken cumulus field again tomorrow for
eastern sites. Winds will become light tonight and continue to be
light north Monday.
Outlook...Non-VFR possible in showers and thunderstorms Wednesday
The lake breeze enhancement to the winds will diminish with sunset
so waves of 1 to 3 feet will settle down to less than 2 feet
tonight. There will be a little lake breeze enhancement again mon
afternoon then high pressure will cross the lake and winds will turn
out of the s to sw tue thru fri and tend to run 5 to 15 knots. A
possible back door cold front may push across the lake for a while
late wed into thu and result in an east to ne flow. For now will
stay with superblend progs.