Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH
FXUS61 KCLE 221915
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
315 PM EDT Wed Mar 22 2017
High pressure over the Northern Lakes will move SE across the lakes
and move off the SE coast Thursday night. This will allow a warm
front to lift NE of the area early Friday. An upper level low
will drift across the Central Lakes this weekend.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
Clouds are finally eroding as drier air moves in. Expect majority
of clouds to dissipate shortly after sunset. No weather to speak of
tonight...as models continue to track high pressure across the
forecast area. The high centered over Southern Lake Superior is
forecast to track into Central PA by daybreak. Expect temps to dip
into the teens tonight. Would have gone a little lower If not for
the fact that winds should not decouple tonight.
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Models continue in good agreement moving the high off the East Coast
Thursday night. This will allow a warm front to lift NE across the
forecast area Thursday night. All three of the models produce rain
showers with the front itself...but QPF varies significantly. Leaned
toward the ECMWF as it was the driest of the 3. And since models
tend to over forecast precip with warm fronts. Models continue to
lift the front north of the area Friday morning allowing area to
come into the warm sector. This will allow temps to warm into the
60s this weekend. Best chance for widespread rain showers still
appears to be Saturday night into Sunday.
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Active long term period begins Sunday with low pressure moving into
the Great Lakes region from the west. Models continue to show a
strong signal for rain much of the day, so went with blanket
categorical pops across the area Monday. Also mentioned chance of
thunder for Sunday and Sunday night, as model soundings indicating
some instability in the warm sector across the region, peaking
around 00Z Monday. The low will depart east of the area Monday, but
precip chances will quickly return Monday night as a phasing
northern stream trough dives east southeast through the Great Lakes,
and a shearing out trough moves through the Ohio Valley. Continued
with high chance to low likely pops Monday night and Tuesday,
tapering to slight chance Tuesday night. Another system is progged
to eject out of the southern Plains toward the Great Lakes late next
week. ECMWF much faster bringing precip into the area by Wednesday
evening, while GEM and GFS much slower/deeper with the low, not
bringing precip into the region until at least Thursday
night/Friday. Will go ahead with a dry forecast for Wednesday and
Wednesday night with the widely varying model solutions.
Temperatures will be above normal through the period.
.AVIATION /18Z Wednesday THROUGH Monday/...
VFR conditions expected through the period as large ridge of
high pressure moves southeast across the region. Some lingering
SCT-BKN strato-cu will dissipate over the first few hours of the
TAF period, with mainly clear skies expected afterward. North-
northeast winds will diminish to 5 knots or less overnight and
veer southeasterly by Thursday.
OUTLOOK...Areas of non vfr developing late Thu night into Fri
morning, returning late Sat then shifting into the east by Sun night.
A large area of arctic high pressure will continue to sink southeast
across Lake Erie tonight and Thursday. Winds will generally be east-
northeast 10 knots or less through Thursday. A warm front will lift
north across the lake on Friday, with southwest winds increasing to
10-15 knots. Low pressure will track towards the lake Saturday and
Sunday and move across the lake on Monday. The aforementioned warm
front will become nearly stationary Saturday and Sunday just north
of the lake with east/southeast winds 10-20 knots at times. Winds
will veer southwest Monday after the low moves through.