Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 190846

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
346 AM EST Thu Jan 19 2017

A series of lows and upper disturbances will move northeast
across the Ohio Valley through the weekend and into early next
week. The pattern will remain mild through mid week.


Drizzle is finally starting to let up and likely only remains
across far eastern OH/inland NW PA early this morning. Low cloud
cover still extends back as far as Cincinnati and west to the NW
IN/IL border. The low clouds will break up today with the ridge
building overhead...but a stream of higher clouds have quickly
overspread the lower OH Valley and will continue to spread
northeast over the course of today. Far NE OH and NW PA may get a
period of thinning...but it wouldn`t be until close to sunset.

Temperatures as of 3 AM were running above normal highs for mid
January. High temperatures will end up in the mid and upper 40s
with a light southerly flow.


Next round of precipitation arrives tonight into early Friday
morning. Upper low across the southern plains will open and shear
out as it crosses the Great Lakes late Friday. Swath of higher
moisture and lift associated with this wave will bring rain into
the area toward midnight...reaching the Cleveland metro area
around 5 or 6 am. This timing is slightly faster than previously
thought. While far northeast OH/nw PA may touch freezing
tonight...all others will remain above freezing and those that do
are expected to rise again before the onset of the
precip...therefore only rain. Models show the bulk of the rain and
the deeper moisture to exit by midday/early afternoon...but
concern would be for the possibility of drizzle hanging back again
for the remainder of Friday. At any rate not expecting the clouds
to depart anytime soon. By Saturday the next shortwave emerges
with a similar fate. Have introduced a chance of showers Saturday.
Do not think it will take much lift to squeeze out a few showers.
Finally the ridge across the southeast U.S. gets displaced east
Sunday as a strong shortwave crosses the southern Plains and
proceeds east across the Gulf Coast states...before taking a turn
northeast. A bit better model agreement today and have delayed the
onset of precip chances Sunday.

So far each shot of rainfall is not overly heavy and therefore not
expecting any significant flooding issues.

This entire time though...we retain unseasonably mild air for
January. Highs will get above 50 for many Friday Saturday and
Sunday. Lows will remain above freezing.


The models are still struggling to find common ground on the track
of the system early next week. Seems to me that the key to the
forecast is how quickly the surface low redevelops to the east coast
on Monday. The ECMWF and CMC have the low near Norfolk VA by 18Z
Monday while the GFS still has the low in Central West Virginia. In
any case, the models are trending toward a track south and east of
the forecast area. By Monday, our flow should be around from the
northeast and if so, the forecast will need to be cooler than the
current forecast. Locations near Lake Erie may not be much warmer
than the upper 30s or lower 40s. Will trim forecast temps a few
degrees Monday and it may need to be trimmed farther as we get more
confident in the track. Given that it is mid January, it is
remarkable that the air mass is so warm that there is not much risk
of snow. Some wet snow or a few sleet pellets may mix in Monday
night into Tuesday, probably mostly in the hills of northeast OH
and northwest PA.

The next low in a series of strong short waves from the southwest is
progged to come quickly be Wednesday. The system may try to stay
west of the area initially but cannot rule out showers and will have
a low pop chance Wednesday. It should still be mild with highs well
in the 40s or perhaps 50s if the southwest flow is warm enough with
little in the way of showers.


.AVIATION /06Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/...
Made some minor changes to the near term forecast periods in the
cloud deck. Latest satellite shows low deck edge advancing
northeast and high clouds streaming in over the top of the
clearing. So, not expecting any sun tomorrow. Latest surface
observations are showing 100 percent humidity and this is
concerning as dense fog could develop. However, all models
indicate winds should stay between 5 and 10 knots through the
night and should help keep things mixed enough to prevent dense
fog from forming. Otherwise, expecting MVFR category mist through
the night and back to VFR tomorrow. Some very light drizzle is
possible just about everywhere but especially east. Thinking is
temperatures should remain just above freezing to prevent any
icing from occurring from the drizzle. We should see low deck of
clouds gradually exit the area during the afternoon hours followed
by some high clouds as next system approaches from the southwest.
Rain will approach the area from the southwest toward the end of
the period in the west.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR Friday and Sunday.


West to southwest winds remained rather brisk on the east half of
Lake Erie this morning but the winds should back and diminish today
as high pressure slides across the Ohio Valley. Winds will shift more
of an east to southeast direction by late afternoon or during the
evening ahead of a weak area of low pressure and a warm front. The
system should cross Lake Erie Friday morning and winds will back to
the south southwest again Friday afternoon into Saturday but remain
rather light.

Low pressure is expected to track across the Gulf Coast states and
east coast early next week. This will bring a rather lengthy period
of east to northeast flow from Saturday night through Monday.
Northeast winds may get strong enough for a small craft advisory
Sunday into Monday.




NEAR TERM...Oudeman
SHORT TERM...Oudeman
LONG TERM...Kosarik
MARINE...Kosarik is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.