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000
FXUS61 KCLE 170506
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
106 AM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE ERIE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE ARA OVERNIGHT. A STRONGER COLD FRONT FROM CANADA WILL
DROP ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE FROM
CANADA WILL BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES BY MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
KEPT A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS NE OH/NW PA UNTIL
ABOUT 2 AM OR SO UNTIL THE TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA. SKIES
SHOULD BE CLEAR OR BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR BY MORNING ALTHOUGH PATCHES
OF MID CLOUDS MAY RETURN BY DAYBREAK. A LITTLE FOG IS POSSIBLE IN
LOW LYING AND RURAL AREAS...ESPECIALLY WHERE IT RAINED THIS
EVENING...BUT NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR A MENTION IN THE FORECAST.
LOWS WILL DROP OFF TO THE LOWER 60S IN MOST AREAS WITH UPPER 50S
IN THE COOLER SPOTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
KIND OF A TRICKY FORECAST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. BIGGEST
CHALLENGE WILL CONTINUE TO BE PRECIP CHANCES. IT NOW APPEARS THAT
MOST IF NOT ALL OF MONDAY WILL BE DRY. A COLD FRONT WILL LINGER TO
THE NORTH TILL LATE IN THE DAY. THIS WILL ALLOW INSTABILITY TO
BUILD. WESTERLY FLOW IN THE MID LEVELS WILL ALSO LEAD TO SOME WIND
SHEAR. THE ONLY THING LACKING IS A GOOD LIFTING SOURCE AT THE
SURFACE. BY THE TIME THE FRONT ARRIVES DAYTIME HEATING WILL BE
OVER. HAVE TRENDED PRECIP CHANCES DOWN FOR MONDAY...ESPECIALLY IN
THE SOUTH. BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD OCCUR
MONDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT ARRIVES. THIS FRONT WILL TAKE IT`S TIME
CLEARING THE AREA AND SOME SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO TUESDAY. DO
THINK DRYING WILL OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH MUCH LESS
HUMID WEATHER EXPECTED. AFTER THAT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE
THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH DRY WEATHER AND COOL TEMPS. FOR THE MOST PART
HAVE NOT STRAYED FROM GUIDANCE TEMPS BY MORE THAN A COUPLE OF
DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE AREA
ON THURSDAY...THEN GRADUALLY MOVING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
FRIDAY.  AFTER THAT MODELS DIVERGE SOMEWHAT.  THE GFS IS STRONGER
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND THEREFORE WARMER AND DRIER. THE ECMWF
ON THE OTHER HAND FLATTENS THE RIDGE MORE AND ALLOWS SOME SHORTWAVE
ENERGY TO TOP THE RIDGE AND MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.  MODELS
CLOSE ON TIMING OF NEXT SYSTEM...WHICH MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL LAKES
SATURDAY NIGHT.  HOWEVER AFTER THAT MODELS REALLY DIVERGE...GFS
MOVES LOW SLOWLY ACROSS EASTERN LAKES SUNDAY WHILE LOW BECOMES OPEN
WAVE ON SUNDAY WITH ECMWF.  FOR NOW WENT WITH THE GFS TRACK AND
TIMING.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STATIONARY FRONT IN THE AREA WHICH HAS TRIGGERED A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NRN OHIO AND NWRN PA AROUND THE MIDNIGHT
HOUR. ACTIVITY IS ROUGHLY ALONG A LINE FROM KFKL-KYNG-KCAK-KMFD-
KFWA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DRIFTING SOUTHEAST AND SHOULD
BE OUT OF THE IMMEDIATE AREA BY 08Z OR SO. OTHERWISE...DEWPOINTS
STILL WELL INTO THE 60S ACROSS NRN OHIO AND NWRN PA WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF KTOL VCNTY. EXPECTING FOG/MIST TO DEVELOP AFTER 09Z.
TOOK MOST LOCATIONS TO MVFR VISIBILITIES IN THE TEMPO PORTION OF
THE FORECAST FROM 09-13Z. ISOLD IFR POSSIBLE. MONDAY EXPECTING VFR
CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY SCATTERED CLOUDS BETWEEN 4 AND 6 THOUSAND
FEET. AFTER 00Z EXPECTING INCREASING CLOUDS FROM 10K AND BELOW AS
NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. BOUGHT VCSH TO KCLE
KCAK KYNG AND KERI AFTER 04Z.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH
SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
CHOPPY CONDITIONS REMAIN ON THE EAST END OF THE LAKE WITH WEST TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS.  FRONT WILL SOUTH OF LAKE NOW SO
WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS VERY WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE LAKE.  HOWEVER...NEXT FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS THE LAKE MONDAY EVENING.  WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NORTH TO
NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS TUESDAY.  FOR NOW LOOKS LIKE CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA WITH WAVES IN THE 2
TO 4 FOOT RANGE.   WINDS DIMINISH AGAIN WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
PUSHES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LAKE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...DJB