Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 221145
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
745 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL SLOWLY MOVE TO NEAR
CAPE COD BY FRIDAY WHILE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER ILLINOIS
SPREADS UP THE OHIO VALLEY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY THEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS
WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION SUNDAY BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE EAST COAST
MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST RADAR PIX AND OBS SHOWING LITTLE PRECIP SO WILL BACK DOWN
POPS FOR THE MORNING.

THE SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW MAY STILL PROVIDE ENOUGH UPPER SUPPORT TO
PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SHRA OVER THE EAST TODAY SO WILL KEEP A SMALL
CHANCE THERE. AS THE UPPER SYSTEM MOVES A LITTLE FURTHER TO THE EAST
BY THE END OF THE DAY THERE WILL BE SOME EASTWARD SHIFT IN THE
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER. WITH SOME AFTERNOON SUN IN THE WEST...TEMPS
THERE SHOULD RECOVER SOME...POSSIBLY GETTING CLOSE TO 55 AROUND AND
WEST OF INTERSTATE 75.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL MAKE SLOW PROGRESS OFF TO THE NE THRU FRI. AN
UPPER RIDGE TRIES TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA BUT LOOKS TO GET
FLATTENED AS A SERIES OF S/W`S MOVE OUT OF THE UPPER PLAINS AND
ACROSS THE LAKES. THE S/W ON SAT WILL ALSO BRING A WEAK COLD FRONT
THRU THE AREA. MOISTURE AND TIMING OF THESE WEAK FEATURES IS TOUGH
BUT IT APPEARS THERE COULD BE A THREAT FOR LIGHT SHRA ANYTIME LATE
THU NIGHT THRU SAT. WILL INCREASE POPS ENOUGH TO SHOW SLIGHT TO
SMALL CHANCES FOR THE SHRA ALONG WITH INCREASING THE CLOUD COVER.

TEMPS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MODERATE UPWARD THU INTO SAT AS THE
COLD POCKET WITH THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW LIFTS NE AWAY FROM THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL FIND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAST THE NEXT SHORT WAVE CAN KNOCK DOWN THE
RIDGE AND THE TIMING ON THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.

SUNDAY MAY START CLOUDY AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST BUT THE SURFACE
HIGH SHOULD BUILD IN WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY FOR
NORTHWEST OHIO WHERE IT SHOULD TURN OUT TO BE A NICE DAY.

MONDAY SHOULD BE WARMER...LOOKING AT PERHAPS 70 DEGREES AS THE SOUTH
FLOW PICKS UP AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT. TUESDAY WOULD BE THE MAIN DAY
IN QUESTION AS TO HOW FAST THE FRONT CAN MOVE EAST. I DO NOT LIKE TO
ASSUME THAT THE RIDGE WILL HOLD FRONTS BACK THIS LATE IN THE SEASON
AND WILL INTRODUCE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS NW OHIO TUESDAY AND
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY
WILL GET AS WARM AS THEY CAN UNTIL THE CLOUDS THICKEN AND SHOWERS
ARRIVE. WILL OPT FOR HIGHER TEMPS...UPPER 60S/NR 70... ACROSS NE
OH/NW PA AND BE A LITTLE MORE CONSERVATIVE FOR NW OHIO WHERE THERE
IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CLEARING WILL CONTINUE TO WORK SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. SOME ENHANCEMENT OF THE LOWER
CEILINGS WILL OCCUR DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE THIS MORNING WITH THE
NORTH FLOW. CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR/VFR LATE THIS MORNING AND
VFR DURING THE AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL CLEAR BY LATE AFTERNOON OR
EARLY EVENING. CANNOT RULE OUT PATCHY FOG TONIGHT BUT DEW POINTS
SHOULD DROP ENOUGH THAT THE FOG WILL NOT BE WIDESPREAD AND LEFT IT
OUT OF THE TAF FORECASTS AT THIS TIME.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR EXTREME NE OH/NW PA SATURDAY EVENING INTO
SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE BRISK NORTH WIND WILL PERSIST TODAY...ONLY DIMINISHING
SLIGHTLY...WITH CONDITIONS REMAINING NEAR OR ABOVE SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTH SHORE. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BEGIN TO
BUILD EAST BY THURSDAY AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER ON THE WEST HALF OF
THE LAKE BUT REMAIN RATHER BRISK ON THE EAST HALF OF THE LAKE. WILL
EXTEND THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS EVENING ON THE WESTERN
BASIN AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING ON THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASINS.
WE MAY BE ABLE TO CANCEL PART OF THE CENTRAL BASIN EARLY ON THURSDAY
BUT I AM NOT SURE THE EAST LAKESHORE MAY NEED TO HAVE THE SMALL
CRAFT EXTENDED THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY.

A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON
FRIDAY. WINDS AND WAVES WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO DECREASE AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BECOMES WEAKER. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO CROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN
INCREASE IN WINDS AND WAVES ON SATURDAY AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AGAIN BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LEZ144>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ142-
     143.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS
NEAR TERM...ADAMS
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KOSARIK






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