Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 301758
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
158 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL
SHIFT TO THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY AND LINGER INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ATMOSPHERE HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTY WARNING AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE
REGION. SEEING A NICE SPIN ON RADAR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF THIS FEATURE. HAVE
INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH TO CATEGORICAL LEVELS. FORTUNATELY
THE SOUTHERN COUNTY WARNING AREA HAS THE LEAST AMOUNT OF RAINFALL
OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS SO THE THREAT OF FLOODING DEEMS
MINIMAL. HOWEVER WE WILL STILL MONITOR THE REGION FOR ANY TRAINING
OF ECHOES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
DRIER CONDITIONS WILL FINALLY RETURN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND DRY
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SETS UP. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

FOR TONIGHT...CLOUDS WILL LINGER IN THE EASTERN AREAS WITH SOME
CLEARING ACROSS NW OHIO. COULD SEE SOME AREAS OF STRATUS DEVELOP
IN THE AREAS THAT HAVE CLEARED. ANOTHER PIECE OF UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT. CAN NOT
RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER OVER LAKE ERIE...OR PUSHING INTO NE
OHIO/NW PA ON WEDNESDAY. ELSEWHERE CHANCES OF SHOWERS ARE PRETTY
LOW ON WEDNESDAY WITH STABLE CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AND REMOVED THE
LOW CHANCE OF RAIN. ONE LAST PIECE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY SLIDES
ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE BEHIND THIS FEATURE. LEFT AN
ISOLATED SHOWER IN THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES BUT THE AIRMASS WILL
CONTINUE TO DRY OUT. MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS THE HIGH
EXPANDING FARTHER TO THE SOUTH TO END THE WEEK WHICH SHOULD ALLOW
FOR DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE ON FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
RECOVER TO THE MID 70S TO END THE WEEK ON FRIDAY WITH MOSTLY TO
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TRENDING TOWARD A CHANGE WHERE FLOW BECOMES MORE
ZONAL WITH TIME.L SOME SMALL PERTURBATIONS WILL SLIP THROUGH THE
MEAN FLOW BUT NO DEEP TROUGHINESS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS FORECAST
PERIOD. UNFORTUNATELY...TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK...MODELS SHAPING
UP TO HEAD BACK INTO THE TROUGHINESS IN THE EAST AND LARGE
AMPLIFICATION OF THE RIDGE TO THE WEST.

IN THE MEAN TIME...MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARD A DRIER SOLUTION OVER
THE WEEKEND AND FOURTH OF JULY CELEBRATIONS WILL NOT BE SPOILED BY
RAIN. THE TREND IS PUSHING THE PRECIPITATION THREAT FURTHER SOUTH
WITH TIME SO WILL BE DROPPING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION FOR
SATURDAY. A SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND
COULD BRING SOME MORE MOISTURE BACK NORTH INTO THE AREA. WILL GO
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR NOW SUNDAY AND UP POPS TO
A CHANCE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

INCREASING THICKNESSES WILL TAKE PLACE AS WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKES
SHAPE. THIS SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES RISE BACK UP INTO THE LOWER 80S
BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND FOR HIGHS AND LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CIGS WILL BEGIN TO SETTLE BACK TO MVFR IF NOT ALREADY AS AN AREA
OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER MOVES EAST. THINGS WILL BEGIN TO
GET MORE CONVECTIVE IN THE AFTERNOON ONCE THIS MAIN BATCH OF RAIN
CLEARS THE AREA TO THE EAST. STILL POCKETS OF THUNDER ARE POSSIBLE
WITH THIS INITIAL BATCH OF RAIN. LATER THIS AFTERNOON A VORT MAX
WILL RIP DOWN A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS THAT STRETCHES ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA CURRENTLY...EJECTING ACROSS SERN OHIO. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO FILL IN ACROSS THAT AREA...ESPECIALLY
GIVEN THE HIGHER SB INSTABILITY PARAMETERS THERE. ELSEWHERE...VCTS
POSSIBLE. MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH AROUND 06Z.
UNTIL THEN VCTS/VCSH LIKELY. POST RAIN CIGS WILL LIFT SOME...WITH
BRIEF HINTS OF CLEARING/VFR...BEFORE LOWERING AGAIN BEFORE
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY CIGS WILL GRADUALLY RECOVER TO NEAR
VFR BY 18Z.

OUTLOOK...AREAS OF NON VFR WEDNESDAY MORNING...THEN MOSTLY VFR
LIKELY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE MAY GET RILED UP A BIT STARTING LATER TONIGHT AS WINDS INCREASE
OUT OF THE WEST AT AROUND 15 KNOTS BY MORNING. THIS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AND THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED. WIND SPEEDS DIMINISH FOR THURSDAY
BUT A BRIEF NORTHEAST BURST OF WINDS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT.
ONCE AGAIN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED THEN.  GENERALLY
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...MAYERS
MARINE...LOMBARDY



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