Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 011958
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
358 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL SHIFT
SOUTHEAST AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY. THIS
FRONT WILL CROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON MONDAY. IN GENERAL HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE OHIO VALLEY FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT WEAK TROUGHS WILL BE ROTATING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
VERY MINIMAL THREAT OF PRECIPITATION TO A VERY SMALL AREA EARLY
THIS EVENING. ENHANCED CUMULUS AND A POSSIBLE QUICK SHOWER MAY
OCCUR NEAR THE YOUNGSTOWN AREA. OTHERWISE NORTH CENTRAL OHIO
THROUGH NW PA WILL BE IN THE OUTER REACHES OF A TROUGH AND UPPER
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING EAST ACROSS ONTARIO AND THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES. LAKE SHADOW/STABILITY PRESSING INLAND AND THINK THE STORMS
COMING OFF OF THE CANADIAN SHORELINE WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO MAKE
IT ACROSS THE LAKE. ON LAND ANOTHER ENHANCED AREA OF CUMULUS IS
ACROSS THE SANDUSKY AREA. A QUICK SHOWER/TS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS
EVENING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OHIO AS THE TROUGH PASSES.

FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT EXPECT THE NORTHEAST TO CLEAR OUT WHILE
THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA WILL HAVE VARIABLY/PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES WITH INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION. STILL BELIEVE IT WILL BE
TOO DRY TO PRODUCE ANY PRECIP. WITH THE MUCH LOWER DEWPOINTS HAVE
ALLOWED THE FAR EAST TO COOL MORE THAN ELSEWHERE...MID/UPPER 50S
VERSUS LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
HAVE CONTINUED THE DRY TREND FOR DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...EXPECTING
NOTHING BUT SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS. QUESTION BECOMES WHEN TO BRING
IN PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL LAKES. DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET AND ANOTHER ROUND OF WARM
AIR ADVECTION MAY BRING SHOWERS/TS TO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE LAKE
AND FAR NE OH/NW PA. OTHERWISE THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL TAKE
PLACE OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT IS SLOW TO CROSS. A
COUPLE OF THE STORMS COULD GET ON THE STRONG SIDE.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY BUT THE
UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MAY STILL HAVE A FEW WEAK
TROUGHS THAT MIGHT BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO FAR NE OH/NW PA. IT GETS
COLD ENOUGH ALOFT THAT THE LAKE MIGHT HELP ENHANCE THE SHOWERS.
THEREFORE HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR THAT AREA ON TUESDAY.

DEWPOINTS AND TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE FOR SUNDAY. WE MAY END UP
BEING A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER IF THE CLOUD COVER IS NOT AS
EXTENSIVE. THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW
DEGREES...UPPER 70S/AROUND 80 FOR BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG TERM BEGINS ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF
SHOWING AN UPPER CLOSED LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA WITH A TROUGH
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.  AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THE SECOND OF TWO
COLD FRONTS. BOTH MODELS TRY TO INCREASE MOISTURE FROM THE WEST
DURING THE DAY WHILE THE CANADIAN MODEL REMAINS DRIER UNTIL
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. WILL BRING IN CHANCE POPS TO THE
SOUTH HALF OF THE CWA BOTH WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT HOLDING
THE NORTH TO SLIGHT CHANCE. THURSDAY THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF ARE
MOIST WHILE THE GFS IS THE DRIER OF THE THREE. WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS MAINLY SOUTH AGAIN. FRIDAY MODELS AGAIN
ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH THE CANADIAN DRIER WHILE THE GFS IS FAIRLY
MOIST. WILL SIDE WITH THE DRIER CANADIAN AND ECMWF AND HAVE ONLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE POP. BIG TAKE-AWAY HOWEVER IS THAT THE TEMPS DROP TO
BELOW NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. THE
HIGH WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND WEAKEN ALLOWING LOW
PRESSURE TO BEGIN MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY. FOR
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING EXPECT WEST-NORTHWEST BREEZES 10 TO 15
KNOTS AND MAINLY SCATTERED CU WITH VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING.
THROUGH THE EVENING EXPECT CLEARING SKIES AND DECREASING WINDS AND
THE CONTACT LAYER STABILIZES. SUNDAY MORNING NO BIG CHANGES
ALTHOUGH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON THERE IS AN INCREASING CHANCE OF
CONVECTION FROM THE WEST.

OUTLOOK...OCCASIONAL NON VFR POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO AND
MONDAY IN SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND WAVES GETTING CLOSE TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS ALONG
THE ERIE PA NEARSHORE WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS AND WAVES 3 TO 4
FEET BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD BE IMPROVING THROUGH THE EVENING SO WILL
NOT HAVE A HEADLINE. FOR THE OVERNIGHT EXPECTING WINDS AND WAVES TO
DROP TO AROUND 10 KNOTS AND 1-3 FEET. FOR SUNDAY SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE
WESTERN LAKES AND CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN APPROACH SMALL CRAFT
LEVELS...THIS TIME IN THE WEST...DRIVEN MAINLY BY WINDS WHICH WILL
LIKELY BE SUSTAINED BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KNOTS. SUNDAY NIGHT THE LOW
WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE CENTRAL LAKES BEFORE BECOMING ABSORBED INTO
THE MAIN LOW OVER QUEBEC. DO EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE INTO THE NIGHT
ACROSS THE LAKE WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS INTO THE MID 20 KNOT RANGE
WITH HIGHER GUSTS AS THE LOW MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED EITHER SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING LASTING
INTO MONDAY.  MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY.  THIS HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE THE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE LAKE BETWEEN ITSELF AND THE LOW OVER QUEBEC.  THUS WHILE
WINDS WILL RELAX BACK TO 12-15 KNOTS EXPECT CHOPPY CONDITIONS ON THE
NEARSHORE EAST OF CLEVELAND WITH FLOW FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST.
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD ACROSS THE LAKE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...TK



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