Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 260500
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
100 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF TROUGHS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL ROTATE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS LAKE ERIE INTO WEDNESDAY THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY THEN SETTLE OVER
VIRGINIA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WEAK LOW PRESSURE SHOULD MOVE UP
THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND DISSIPATE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
LAKE EFFECT BAND OF SHOWERS CONTINUES TO DEVELOP WITH SOME
INTENSITY FROM WEST TO EAST ALONG AXIS OF UPPER LEVEL POSITIVE
VORTICITY MAXIMUM AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH AXIS. THIS BAND
WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST AND SOUTH OVERNIGHT. I INCREASED POPS ALONG
THE BAND AND INCREASED QPF AMOUNTS AS WELL IN THE BAND.

REST OF THE AREA WILL START TO SEE BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST CLOUD
COVER BUT STILL THINK TEMPERATURES MAY NOT DROP MUCH BELOW 60
OVERNIGHT. STILL THINKING LOWS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S AWAY
FROM THE LAKE AND LOWER 60S NEAR THE LAKE SHORE. WHERE SHOWERS
PERSIST SLIGHTLY COLDER TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S WILL OCCUR DUE TO
PRECIPITATION DRAG OF COLDER AIR ALOFT TO THE SURFACE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE NEXT WEAK TROUGH SHOULD DROP SE ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT.
BETTER MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE IN THE LOWER LEVELS SO THE THREAT
FOR LIGHT SHRA/SPRINKLE SHOULD SPREAD OUT A LITTLE MORE OUTSIDE OF
THE SNOWBELT AND THIS WILL REMAIN THE CASE THRU WED AS THE AXIS OF
THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES SE ACROSS THE CWA. WITH SUNSET WED
EVE...THE THREAT FOR SHRA SHOULD RETREAT INTO THE EASTERN PART OF
THE SNOWBELT AND CONTINUE TO SHRINK THRU THU AS HIGH PRESSURE
FINALLY MOVES OVER THE AREA. THE HIGH SHOULD PROVIDE DRY
CONDITIONS THU NIGHT THRU FRI NIGHT.

TEMPS WILL CONTINUE BELOW NORMAL THRU THU NIGHT THEN START TO
MODERATE CLOSER TO NORMAL ON FRI IN RESPONSE TO ABUNDANT SUNSHINE
AND WINDS BECOMING LIGHT SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HEIGHTS ARE PROGGED TO RISE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY LATE IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEK. THE FLY IN THE OINTMENT
IS AN UPPER TROUGH THAT IS PROGGED TO DRIFT ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND
LOWER GREAT LAKES. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN RELATIVELY CONSISTENT WITH
THIS FEATURE.

THE SURFACE PROGS ON THE MODELS LOOK AS THOUGH A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL DROP ACROSS ONTARIO AND NEW ENGLAND WHILE A WARM FRONT DEVELOPS
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL START OUT QUITE STABLE AND
DRY AND IT MAY TAKE A WHILE TO MOISTEN THINGS UP. WILL CONTINUE TO
FORECAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO ON
SATURDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY. NOT SURE IF THE SYSTEM WILL BE GONE ON
MONDAY OR NOT.

TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER AS THE RIDGE BUILDS ALOFT. TEMPERATURES
MAY BE SUPPRESSED SOMEWHAT ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY DEPENDING ON THE
AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS BUT THE TREND WILL BE UPWARD. HIGHS
SHOULD BE ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEKEND AND ESPECIALLY INTO NEXT WEEK.
SUMMER IS NOT OVER YET.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL DROP SE INTO THE AREA THE REST OF TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD
CAUSE CIGS TO FALL INTO MVFR RANGE FOR ALL BUT MAYBE FDY. LIGHT LAKE
EFFECT SHRA WILL BE SCT AROUND THE SNOWBELT WHICH MAY REDUCE VSBYS
AT TIMES. FROM LATE MORNING ON...THE SHRA SHOULD BECOME LESS
NUMEROUS NEAR THE LAKESHORE WITH A FEW ADDITIONAL SHRA DEVELOPING
FURTHER INLAND FOR THE AFTERNOON. CIGS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE FROM
MID MORNING THRU NOON WITH MOST SITES BACK TO VFR. AS HIGH PRESSURE
STARTS TO SPREAD INTO THE WEST BY THIS EVENING...CIGS HAVE ABOUT A
50/50 CHANCE OF SCATTERING OUT AT FDY AND TOL AROUND SUNSET.

W TO NW WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS SHOULD BE COMMON DURING THE DAYTIME
BECOMING EVEN LIGHTER WITH SUNSET.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE EXTREME NORTHEAST OH AND NORTHWEST PA
INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
JUST ENOUGH WIND IS LIKELY ON LAKE ERIE TODAY TO KEEP THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM THE ISLANDS EAST. THE GRADIENT
WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN TODAY BUT THE FAVORABLE WIND DIRECTION FROM
THE WEST SOUTHWEST AND THE COLD ADVECTION SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP
THE WAVES UP AROUND 3 TO 4 FEET MUCH OF THE DAY ON THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN BASIN.

THE NEXT TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SWING THROUGH TONIGHT. THE WIND
MAY INCREASE FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH
BUT THE OVERALL WIND SPEEDS MAY NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR ENOUGH
DURATION FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. IT WILL BE CLOSE THOUGH AND
SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD MONITOR THE FORECAST AND THE WEATHER. A
WATERSPOUT IS POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT ANYTIME INTO THURSDAY MORNING BUT
ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN TONIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
TROUGH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES BY THURSDAY AND
WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST AND VEER MORE NORTHERLY. THE
FLOW SHOULD COME AROUND FROM THE SOUTH BY FRIDAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS
EAST. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF LAKE ERIE COULD CAUSE A LIGHT
EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW TO DEVELOP FOR A WHILE THIS WEEKEND BUT WIND
SPEEDS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIGHT.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAMISON
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...JAMISON
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...KEC


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