Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 191025

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
625 AM EDT Wed Oct 19 2016

A Cold front located from north central Pennsylvania to central
Ohio early this morning will continue to drift southward before
stalling near the Ohio River Valley. This boundary will move
northward toward the region tonight into Thursday and will be the
path for an area of low pressure to track along. This low will
track across Ohio Thursday afternoon and should reach central
Pennsylvania Thursday night. Much cooler air will spill into the
area in the wake of this storm system.


Some patchy fog has developed at locations where winds have
become calm and skies have cleared. Otherwise have only made some
minor changes to the hourly temperatures to reflect current

Previous Discussion...
A Cold front located from north central Pennsylvania to central
Ohio early this morning will continue to drift southward before
stalling near the Ohio River Valley. Drier air and clearing skies
should spread from NW to SE through the morning. Since there will
still be decent amounts of sunshine highs are expected to remain
above seasonal averages. Highs will range from the upper 60s
across NW PA to the mid 70s across the southwestern portion of
County Warning Area (CWA).


The cold front will stall near the Ohio River Valley tonight but
will begin to lift northward overnight. As low pressure develops
over the lower Ohio River Valley this evening it will begin to
nudge the frontal boundary back to the north. Higher levels of
moisture will return northward with the low as it tracks across
Ohio Thursday afternoon before reaching central Pennsylvania
Thursday night. There will likely be a heavier swatch of rainfall
across the region with it centered near a Marion to Meadville
line. The uncertainty at this time is how far to the north any
convective activity will reach. This will likely determine if we
end up going with any flood headlines over the next 36 hours. At
this point it is way too difficult to place this swath of
convection and will let later shifts take a close look at it.
However we have kept an isolated mention of thunder near and south
of line from Marion to Warren.

Colder air spills across the region in the wake of the area of low
pressure for Thursday night into Friday. This will feel even
cooler since we have remained so far above average into October.
Lake effect showers are expected to develop by Friday afternoon
and continue into Saturday night. Current thinking is we will
bring some warmth off of Lake Erie into extreme NE OH and NW PA
to keep the mention of snow from the forecast. If models trend
cooler the next couple days we may have to reconsider this for the
hilltops of inland NW PA.

It will be cooler each day of the short term period. Thursday
should be a cool wet day with highs in the lower to mid 60s.
Cooler Friday into Saturday with 50s common. Highs across inland
NW PA will struggle to reach the mid 40s Saturday afternoon.


The models show another weak s/w rotating around the main upper
trough that drops SE across LERI sometime during the Sun into Mon
time frame. A weak reinforcing cold front should push SE across
the area with the upper feature and this front looks to be enough
of a focus to keep chc pops for mainly the snowbelt Sun thru Mon.
Think boundary temps will stay just warm enough so that precip
should stay rain versus mix of snow.

High pressure shifts east over the area mon night and tue which
should provide dry conditions. Mon night will likely be the coldest
night as winds become calm and clouds break up with lows mostly 35
to 40. Models don`t show much warming for tue even with ridging at
all levels.


.AVIATION /06Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/...
Cold front slowly pushing se across the area should be near pbz to
cvg line by 12z. Stratus behind the front may linger around
cak...yng and mfd into daybreak this morning producing a mix of mvfr
and ifr cigs and vsby`s. Enough drier air should push south to break
up the lower clouds and fog by morning leaving sct cu with cirrus
above. Winds should stay light...mainly out of the north then ne.

Patchy fog and light rain may start to develop again toward 06z
tonight for the well inland sites.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR developing late tonight and continuing through
Friday. Non-VFR possible northeast OH and northwest PA Saturday.


Weak ridge of high pressure over the lake today will produce light
winds. Low pressure moving up the OH valley late tonight into Fri
will lead to increasing NE winds that gradually back to NW by Fri
with speeds of 20 to 30 knots likely Thu into Fri. Expect small
craft advisory conditions to be in place from midday Thu thru the




NEAR TERM...Mullen
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