Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 101105
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
705 AM EDT THU JUL 10 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL EXPAND EAST ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN SHIFT TO NEW ENGLAND INTO
SATURDAY. MEANWHILE LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE PLAINS WILL
PUSH A WARM FRONT NORTH TOWARDS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY AS A COLD
FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS CANADA. THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL CONVERGE ON
THE AREA ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SKIES ARE STARTING OFF MOSTLY SUNNY THIS MORNING BUT AN INCREASE
IN CLOUDS IS EXPECTED WITH DIURNAL HEATING AS THE TROUGH PUSHES
SOUTH.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVER TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM QUEBEC TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERRED OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
BUT WILL EXPAND SOUTHEAST OVER LAKE ERIE TODAY. THE AIRMASS WILL
DRY THROUGH THE DAY BUT DEWPOINTS WILL START OFF NEAR 60 DEGREES
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OHIO THIS MORNING. MODELS HINTING AT A
MINIMAL AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY SE OUT OF LINE FROM MFD-YNG-GKJ
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. BETTER RESOLUTION MODELTS ALSO HINTING AT
WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE IN THIS SAME AREA SO DECIDED TO ADD AN
ISOLATED SHOWER TO THE FORECAST FOR OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES
UNTIL THE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH...ROUGHLY 18Z...ALTHOUGH BETTER
CHANCES WILL BE FOCUSED SE OF OUR AREA. OTHERWISE WILL CARRY
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...CLEARING LATER IN THE DAY FROM THE NW. HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S IN NW PA TO MID/UPPER 70S IN NRN OHIO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE EXPANDS OVER THE REGION. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH A
GOOD DIURNAL SWING. LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S FOR MOST
AREAS...HOLDING A FEW DEGREES WARMER ALONG THE LAKESHORE. AFTER A
COOL START TO THE DAY...TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER TO NEAR 80 DEGREES
BENEATH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ON FRIDAY.

WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH A RELATIVELY FLAT RIDGE
WILL BUILD OVER THE PLAINS. SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALREADY SEEN MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL ROUND THE RIDGE TOWARDS THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY/LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION BY FRIDAY NIGHT. MID LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO SPILL AROUND THE RIDGE OVERHEAD WHILE LOW
LEVELS REMAIN DRY. AT THIS TIME THE BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION IS FOCUSED TOWARDS LAKE MICHIGAN SO WILL CARRY A DRY
FORECAST FOR FRIDAY NIGHT.

A WARM FRONT LOCATED ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO
VALLEY WILL PUSH NORTH ON SATURDAY. WILL CARRY A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN NW OHIO DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY
WITH CHANCES INCREASING OVERNIGHT AS THETA-E RIDGE SHIFTS
OVERHEAD. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SOME STRONGER UPSTREAM CONVECTION
WORKING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST EITHER SATURDAY NIGHT OR
SUNDAY BUT FOR NOW THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS KEPT THE SLIGHT
RISK WEST OF THE AREA. CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE 50-60
PERCENT RANGE FROM THE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY TIME FRAME AS
ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERLY FLOW IS SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE
RIDGE TO THE SOUTH AND HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH
PUSHING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. MINS WILL BE MILD ON SATURDAY NIGHT
AS HUMIDITY INCREASES WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY INFLUENCED BY COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL LIMIT TEMPERATURES TO AROUND 80
DEGREES BUT COULD BE WARMER IF WE END UP WITH MORE BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A BIG CHANGE IS COMING DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD.  THE NEW 00Z
MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT.  BOTH HAVE A 5500M UPPER LOW OVER
LAKE HURON BY MIDDAY ON TUESDAY.  FOR MONDAY...A SURFACE LOW WILL
MOVE OVER THE CENTRAL LAKES WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIP ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA.  THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN QUEBEC
TUESDAY DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z.
THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT BUT MOST OF
TUESDAY AND ALL OF WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE QUIET BECAUSE OF AN UNUSUALLY
DRY AND COLD AIRMASS.  850 MB TEMPS WILL DIP TO AROUND PLUS 7 WHICH
MEANS HIGH TEMPS IN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE ARE TOO WARM.  HAVE LOWERED
HIGHS INTO THE LOWER 70S TUESDAY AND UPPER 60S ON WEDNESDAY.  IF THE
MODELS VERIFY EVEN THOSE NUMBERS MAY BE TOO WARM.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE SHOWERS OVER WESTERN LAKE ERIE CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH AND
EXPECT DRY WEATHER AT ALL OF THE TAFS. SOME PATCHES OF MID LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL AFFECT KCLE AND KERI OVERNIGHT. ALSO EXPECTING SOME
FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS DURING THE DAY. A FEW HOURS OF BKN CIGS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS NE OH AND NW PA AROUND MIDDAY. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
FLOW WILL BECOME N TO NE AFTER DAYBREAK. SPEEDS WILL BE UNDER 10
KNOTS THE ENTIRE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR AGAIN POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
IN THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE LAKE FROM THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH
TODAY AND TONIGHT CAUSING AN EASTERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP ON LAKE ERIE.
NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.  THE SURFACE
RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE LAKE ON SATURDAY CAUSING THE FLOW TO
BECOME SOUTH.  SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT.  THE FRONT ITSELF WILL CROSS THE LAKE
SOMETIME SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY WITH THE FLOW THEN RETURNING
TO THE NORTHWEST.  IT APPEARS MOST OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE UNSETTLED
WITH GOOD CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM LAKE SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.  IT APPEARS SPEEDS MOST OF THE PERIOD WILL BE UNDER 15 KNOTS
SO NOT EXPECTING ANY SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...KUBINA






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