Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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397
FXUS61 KCLE 072331
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
631 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST INTO LAKE
ERIE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING THEN SHIFT INTO NEW ENGLAND WHILE
LEAVING A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN LAKES UNTIL THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY SPREAD OVER THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT THEN
ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
LATEST MODEL DATA SHOW NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. STILL EXPECT INCREASING CHANCES FROM WEST TO
EAST FOR PRECIP TONIGHT. TEMPS INITIALLY LOOK WARM ENOUGH FOR MAINLY
LIGHT RAIN THEN BY THE END OF THE NIGHT TEMPS SHOULD COOL ENOUGH FOR
MORE SNOW THAN RAIN. ANY ACCUMULATION TONIGHT WILL BE LIGHT AND
MAINLY ON GRASSY AREAS WITH ONLY A HALF AN INCH OR LESS EXPECTED.
LOWS SHOULD FINALLY END UP FROM ABOUT 30 OR 31 IN THE WEST TO 33 TO
34 IN THE EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE UPPER AND SURFACE
LOW WILL SLOWLY INCH EAST ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY THRU WED MORNING.
THIS WILL MEAN WIDESPREAD LIGHT PRECIP SHOULD OCCUR INTO WED THEN A
TRANSITION TO MAINLY JUST LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS BY WED NIGHT.
TEMPS ON MON WILL STILL BE MARGINAL FOR RAIN OR SNOW BUT BY MON
NIGHT ENOUGH OF THE COLDER AIR AT ALL LEVELS SHOULD HAVE ARRIVED FOR
JUST SNOW FROM THIS POINT ON THE REST OF THE WEEK.

SINCE THE PRECIP WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT...SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL
STAY LIGHT WITH UP TO AN INCH OR AN INCH AND A HALF MON NIGHT AND
TUE...MAYBE UP TO 2 INCHES IN THE EAST TUE NIGHT. AS SOME LAKE
EFFECT STARTS TO HELP OUT THERE COULD BE SOME SPOTS AROUND NW PA ON
WED THAT SEE 3 INCHES. WED NIGHT COULD SEE SOME MORE SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL IN THE SNOWBELT AS LAKE EFFECT CONDITIONS BECOME VERY
FAVORABLE...MAYBE 3 TO LOCALLY 5 OR 6 INCHES POSSIBLE IN HIGHER
TERRAIN.

TEMPS WILL PROGRESSIVELY FALL EACH DAY MON THRU WED WITH HIGHS ON
WED ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 20S AND LOWS WED NIGHT FROM THE MID TEENS
ERI LAKESHORE TO HIGH END SINGLE DIGITS IN THE SW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS CONSISTENT
THROUGH THE LONG TERM SHOWING A DEEP UPPER TROUGH BEING CARVED OUT
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WHILE A RIDGE BUILDS IN THE WEST. AT
THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE GENERALLY WEST OF THE AREA
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD CENTERED MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN LAKES
AND UPPER MIDWEST.  SO FOR THE LONG TERM AM EXPECTING A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACROSS THE SNOWBELT AND TEMPERATURES WELL
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT NEAR THE ILLINOIS/INDIANA BORDER WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST
OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY. EXPECTED TO REACH CLE AREA MONDAY MORNING
AND EVENTUAL REACH ERI AREA MONDAY EVENING. TONIGHT RAIN WILL
DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT. BUT WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S-LOWER 50S
PRECIP SHOULD NOT TRANSITION TO SNOW UNTIL LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. WIDESPREAD SYNOPTIC 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED
PRETTY MUCH EVERYWHERE MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN SNOW AS A SERIES OF
CLIPPERS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW GALE FORCE THROUGH
THURSDAY SO NO HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED.  IN GENERAL EXPECT
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW OVERNIGHT BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE MONDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD. TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WINDS WILL
INCREASE AGAIN OUT OF THE WEST/SOUTHWEST AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES TO
OUR NORTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO THE UPPER MIDWEST. WINDS
WILL SHIFT MORE TO THE NORTHWEST LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
INCREASING WAVES ON THE SOUTH HALF OF THE LAKE TO 4 TO 6 FEET.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS
NEAR TERM...ADAMS
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...TK



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