Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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049
FXUS61 KCLE 131752
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1252 PM EST Sat Jan 13 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will gradually build southeast across the area by
Sunday morning.  The high will build northeast toward Maine by
Sunday night.  An Alberta Clipper low pressure storm system will
move southeast into the southern Great Lakes Monday and then
northeast to Maine by Tuesday night. Arctic air will follow the low
pressure system through much of the week. More high pressure will
build east across the Ohio Valley Wednesday night and to the east
coast by Friday. The high will bring moderating temperatures by the
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The intense band continues to move eastward with the changing
winds. The drier air is also helping to narrow it with the
heaviest of it impacting Lake and Geauga counties. Reports have
been 1/2 an inch to locally 2 inches with the band. So
definitely feeling more confident not having an advisory.
However the rapid changes in visibility will still warrant the
issuance of Special Weather Statements through the afternoon.

Previous Discussion...

An upper level trough will become somewhat negatively tilted by
Sunday across the eastern United States as slow amplification
of an upper level ridge takes place over the western United
States. The upper level trough will keep arctic air across the
forecast area through this forecast period with no relief in
sight until the end of the week. In the mean time, the low
pressure system that brought the snow to the forecast area will
continue to move northeast to the eastern seaboard. As this
takes place, moisture with the storm system will begin to exit
to the east and the remaining snow will go with it. Flow out of
the north will support some lake effect snow in a band that is
expected to set up from Lake Huron across Lake Erie into the
forecast area today into tonight. As surface high pressure
builds east across the Ohio Valley region tonight into Sunday,
flow will shift around to a southwest direction and bring an end
to the threat for snow showers. Expecting only light snow
accumulations to take place this morning with residual snow
showers. Winter weather advisory will be allowed to expire with
this update in the west as snow is east of that area at this
time. Since snow is falling across the eastern portions of the
forecast area, will hold on to winter storm warning but
expecting to drop it with the 630 AM update. Now that runoff
into streams is being shutdown by the cold air, will go ahead
and drop the flood watch. The cold air should help slow ice
movement for ice jam potential. Cold air advection will keep
temperatures nearly steady or very slight rises today from
current min temperatures. Overnight lows tonight will drop into
the single digits once again. As southwest flow develops Sunday,
some minor recovery in temperatures will take place with highs
in the upper teens to lower 20s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
More snow is likely during the period with a clipper system expected
to arrive late Sunday night.  This feature will pass to the north of
Lake Erie Monday night.  Some timing and track differences exist in
the model but confidence is high that it will snow.  Will bring snow
into the Toledo area by daybreak Monday and then ramp chances up to
likely all areas on Monday.  Lingering snow showers will persist
into Monday night.  A general 1 to 3 inches of snow is expected
across the entire area with perhaps a little more than that in the
snowbelt.  High pressure will begin to build over the region from
the west on Tuesday. However...a trough at the surface will persist
over the eastern lakes into early Wednesday which will keep the
threat of snow going east of CLE.  The remainder of the area will
dry out though.  Temperatures during the period will average 10 to
15 degrees below normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure situated to the south will dominate the long term
period.  A surface ridge from the high will eventually push east of
the area late Thursday.  Till then temperatures will remain very
cold with highs both Wednesday and Thursday 10 to 15 degrees below
normal.  The southerly flow that develops west of the ridge Thursday
night will trigger a warm up.  We should get back to close to normal
for highs on Friday.  The period will be dry and skies during the
day should be no more than partly cloudy.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Saturday THROUGH Thursday/...
Band of intense lake effect snow remains over northern Ohio.
This band will continue to drift eastward with scattered snow
showers possible for KCAK and maybe KYNG later this evening.
Erie may begin to see some snow showers during the evening
hours. There were even a few snow showers drifting into NW Ohio
off of Lake Michigan. So any location that has a snow shower
will dip to MVFR/IFR. Otherwise the trend will be for
improvement with low end VFR through the evening then gradually
breaking up through the overnight hours as some higher level
cloud cover begins to spread back over the area on Sunday.

NW winds will decrease as they shift to the west overnight.
Most locations will become light and variable.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR Monday into Monday night in snow and then
persist into Wednesday in snow showers across NE OH/NW PA.

&&

.MARINE...
Northerly winds will continue to slowly diminish on Lake Erie today.
Winds will become light westerly tonight as high pressure builds
over the region from the southwest.  The high will move to the east
of the lake by late Sunday which will allow light southerly winds to
develop.  Southerly winds will increase on Monday ahead of a clipper
system.  The cold front from that low will cross the lake on Monday
evening and night flipping the flow to the southwest or even west.
Westerly flow will then continue through the end of the period as
another high builds over the region from the southwest.  The strong
winds the past 24 hours have likely shifted the ice on the lake.  It
will be interesting to see what the coverage looks like later
today.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Lombardy
NEAR TERM...Lombardy/Mullen
SHORT TERM...Kubina
LONG TERM...Kubina
AVIATION...Lombardy
MARINE...Kubina



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