Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 152005
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
305 PM EST MON DEC 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY DRAGGING A FRONTAL SYSTEM ACROSS THE
REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MODELS SHOW LOW PRESSURE ACROSS IOWA AND NRN MO LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE AXIS OF AN UPPER RIDGE JUST TO OUR EAST.
SUBSIDENCE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW HAS ALLOWED THE CLOUDS TO
BREAK THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE PROGRESS
OF THE LOW HOWEVER WILL TAKE IT TO SRN LAKE MI OVERNIGHT WITH A
COLD FRONT/OCCLUDED FRONT SOUTHEAST INTO WESTERN OHIO BY 12Z.
PRECIP TO OUR WEST AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM SO FAR IS NOT TOO
IMPRESSIVE HOWEVER FOLLOWING THE HRRR NAM AND SREF...MODELS BRING
IN A SWATH OF RAIN THROUGH THE EVENING EXPANDING IT THROUGH THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED DYNAMICS
OVERSPREAD THE REGION. WILL HAVE CAT POPS FOR MOST...MOVING FROM
WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOWS GENERALLY UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY BEGINS WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER SRN LAKE MI WITH A
COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT NEAR A KTOL-KFDY-LCMH.  EXPECTING RAIN TO BE
OCCURRING ACROSS NWRN PA FROM THE INITIAL SURGE FINALLY REACHING
THE AREA JUST BEFORE DAWN. CENTRAL COUNTIES...PRECIP COULD BEGIN
SPOTTY WITH A MARGINAL DRY SLOT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. MOISTURE
WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING INTO THE WEST. THE UPPER LOW
WILL MOVE ENE ACROSS THE CENTRAL LAKES DURING THE DAY WITH DEEP
MOISTURE AND WEAK COLD ADVECTION SPREADING ACROSS THE CWA. WILL
HAVE LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY FOR RAIN. THE
UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST THROUGH THE EVENING. AM THINKING
WESTERN COUNTIES COULD POSSIBLY SEE A FEW SHOWERS THROUGH THE
EVENING BUT WITH FORCING GONE TAPERED POPS WEST THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT TO SLIGHT CHANCE. WINDS TURN OFF THE LAKE FOR THE SNOW
BELT TUESDAY NIGHT BUT 850MB TEMPS NOT LOW ENOUGH FOR LAKE
INSTABILITY. WILL HOLD ONTO CHANCE POPS GIVEN MOISTURE SOURCE BUT
NOT EXPECTING A LOT GIVEN FORCING EAST OF THE AREA. WEDNESDAY
HOWEVER...850MB TEMPS BEGIN TO DROP TO -6 TO -8C DURING THE DAY.
STILL...LES NOT INDICATED HOWEVER STILL THINK SNOW SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP. WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS GOING TO LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT 850MB TEMPS DROP FURTHER TO -12C WITH ANOTHER
UPPER TROF CROSSING THE LAKE GIVEN THE ADDED DYNAMICS AM MORE
CONFIDENT IN SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE EAST LAKESHORE/SNOW
BELT...LASTING INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BE SHIFTING INTO THE EASTERN LAKES FRI
WHICH SHOULD BRING THE LAKE EFFECT SHSN TO AN END BY FRI NIGHT.
LITTLE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION IS LIKELY ON FRI.

THE MODELS START TO DIFFER INTO SAT ON WHERE AN UPPER LOW TRACKS
THUS AFFECTING THE TRACK OF A SURFACE LOW. THE GFS IS NOW SHOWING A
MUCH WEAKER SURFACE LOW WITH A BROAD AREA OF MOISTURE WORKING UP
THROUGH THE OH VALLEY MOSTLY FORCED BY THE UPPER TROUGH. THE ECMWF
HAS A MUCH STRONGER SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW. IN EITHER CASE THERE SHOULD BE PRECIP SPREADING NE ACROSS THE
CWA LATE SAT OR SAT NIGHT AND SHIFTING INTO MAINLY THE EAST SUN.
TEMPS ON THE EDGE FOR EITHER RAIN OR SNOW ON SAT BUT A LITTLE COLDER
AIR MOVING IN FOR SAT NIGHT AND SUN SHOULD LEAD TO MOSTLY SNOW THEN.

TEMPS DON`T LOOK TO GET COLD ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT OF ANY
SIGNIFICANCE LATER SUN THEN HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER
THE AREA SUN NIGHT TO PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH
IS PROGGED TO BE MOVING EAST INTO THE LAKE ERIE AREA BY LATE MON SO
THE DRY CONDITIONS MAY NOT LAST THRU THE DAY.

TEMPS DON`T APPEAR TO SHOW A LOT OF CHANGE SUN THRU MON.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MIX OF CIGS RANGING FROM IFR TO VFR SHOULD CONTINUE TO TRY AND
IMPROVE INTO THE EVENING THEN CIGS AND VSBYS WILL DROP BACK INTO IFR
FROM WEST TO EAST AS RAIN SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA. THE RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN THE TOL AND FDY AREA BY LATE
EVENING...SPREADING ACROSS MFD...CLE AND CAK AROUND 05 TO 08Z AND
FINALLY INTO YNG AND ERI AROUND 08Z TO 11Z. WINDS SHOULD STAY 10
KNOTS OR LESS MOST OF THE TIME THRU 18Z TUE WHILE VEERING FROM SE TO
S OR SW THIS EVENING THRU MIDDAY TUE.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR INTO TUE NIGHT IN RAIN SHOWERS AND ACROSS FAR NE
OH/NW PA ON WED AND THU IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SE WINDS WILL START INCREASING TONIGHT AND VEER TO SW ON TUE THEN TO
WEST TUE NIGHT WHILE INCREASING TO 20 TO 30 KNOTS AS COLD AIR BEHIND
A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA. THUS A SCA WILL BE
NEEDED STARTING TUE NIGHT. WEST TO NW WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE
LATER WED THRU EARLY FRI SO THE SCA MAY HAVE TO BE UP UNTIL SOMETIME
THU NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER LAKES EARLY FRI WILL SETTLE
OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE LAKES FOR SAT WHILE A LOW TRACKS NE
ACROSS THE SE STATES TO THE DELMARVA AREA BY EARLY SUN. THIS SHOULD
LEAD TO AN INCREASING NE FLOW ON SAT...HOWEVER MODEL DIFFERENCES
MAKE IT UNCERTAIN WHETHER THE WINDS WILL GET INTO SCA CRITERIA.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS





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