Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 192322
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
722 PM EDT SAT JUL 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA
TONIGHT AND WEAKEN. ANOTHER WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE TENNESSEE AND LOWER OHIO VALLEY FROM SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEPART TO THE EAST TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
BAND OF SHOWERS CONTINUES TO DEVELOP FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ACROSS CUYAHOGA AND LAKE COUNTIES OUT TO LAKE ERIE. BAND OF RAIN
IS PRODUCING MODERATE RAINFALL RATES. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE UNTIL SUNSET AS CONVECTION IS BECOMING MORE DIURNAL IN
NATURE WITH TIME.

REST OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA WILL SEE SPRINKLES OR LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. I ANTICIPATE ALL OF THE
ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET AS WELL.

TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY HOLD UP IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA TONIGHT DUE TO CLOUDS. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE
WESTERN AREAS FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS AS SOME CLEARING IS TRYING TO
PUSH INTO THAT REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY SNEAKS NORTH
INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY THEN LINGERS INTO MONDAY. THE
AIR MASS WILL DRY A LITTLE BIT EACH DAY WITH INCREASINGLY MORE SUN
EXPECTED. WE HOLD ONTO HIGH DEW POINTS THOUGH AND A DIURNALLY DRIVEN
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY...THEN JUST AN ISOLATED
CHANCE IN THE SE COUNTIES ON MONDAY. IT DOES LOOK LIKE THERE MAY BE
SOME DEGREE OF A MID-LEVEL CAP SUNDAY AS HEIGHTS CLIMB ALOFT BUT
COULD DEVELOP IN THE NE AREAS AS THE LAKE BREEZE PUSHES INLAND.

A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES...SHIFTING EASTWARD ON TUESDAY. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ON
THE WEST SIDE OF IT ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT AREAS OF LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHING THE WESTERN LAKES REGION. WARMING TREND
CONTINUES ON TUESDAY AND REMOVED THE 20 POP FROM THE FORECAST AS THE
AIR MASS LOOKS CAPPED. DID LEAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE IN NW OHIO TUESDAY
NIGHT AS CONVECTION ATTEMPTS TO ROUND THE RIDGE. HIGHS BY TUESDAY
WILL BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN MOVE SOUTH OF
THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN DRYING OUT FROM THE NORTH ON
THURSDAY. THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT. SOME QUESTION AS TO
THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE. AT THIS TIME JUST KEPT IT CHANCE POPS WITH
SCATTERED WORDING FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A RIDGE WILL SLOWLY BUILD
IN THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVE EAST ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF A WARM
FRONT AND COLD FRONT. INTRODUCED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT. IF THE TRENDS
CONTINUE MAY HAVE TO INCREASE THE POPS ON SATURDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE GENERALLY NEAR OR SLIGHT BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE EAST THE PRECIPITATION
SHOULD CONTINUE TO DECREASE AND MOVE EAST OF THE AREA. A FEW
SHOWERS ARE GOING TO LINGER THIS EVENING PARTICULAR FOR THE
EASTERN TAF SITES. ISOLATED THUNDER IS POSSIBLE BUT I WILL NOT
MENTION THUNDER IN THE TAFS. MVFR CEILINGS AND A FEW IFR CEILINGS
PERSIST OVER THE EAST WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. VFR CONDITIONS
OVER THE WESTERN TAF SITES. I EXPECT CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY DECREASE
FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND MODELS
INDICATE WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPING TONIGHT. I WILL CONTINUE THE
FOG AND STRATUS TREND FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH MINOR
TWEAKS TO THE TIMING. WINDS WILL REMAIN VERY LIGHT OVERNIGHT
GIVING WAY TO A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE
SUNDAY AGAIN WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
NO THREAT FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK.
FOR TONIGHT A WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER OHIO WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST INTO CANADA. A BIT OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW
AND THE HIGH ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL CAUSE SOME OFFSHORE WINDS
THIS EVENING AND THEN THAT SHOULD DECREASE BY MIDNIGHT. WAVES COULD
BE 3 TO POSSIBLY 4 FEET IN THE OPEN WATER OVER EASTERN LAKE ERIE
THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

OTHER THEN THAT WAITING FOR A COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH ON
WEDNESDAY. SOME OF THOSE THUNDERSTORMS COULD PROMPT THE NEED FOR
SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS. BEHIND THE FRONT THE WINDS WILL BE NORTH OR
NORTHEAST FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL HAVE
TO BE WATCHED FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. A RIDGE
WILL BE BUILDING OVER THE LAKE BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...GARNET
MARINE...KIELTYKA





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