Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 271715

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
115 PM EDT Mon Mar 27 2017

The next low will move across central and Southeast OH tonight. High
pressure building south out of Canada will be in control Tuesday
night through Wednesday. A next low in the series will move across
the region Thursday night through early Saturday.


The remaining sct shra around the snowbelt will gradually shift off
to the east into midday then weak high pressure should provide
mainly dry conditions until rain from the next low tries to push
into the sw by the end of the day.

There may be a few breaks in the cloud cover. SW winds will get
pulled more to the west which will probably bring some cooler air
off of Lake Erie into the Erie Pa area this afternoon.


There is still some difference in timing of the rainfall for
tonight into Tuesday, but most of the guidance brings rainfall
across most of OH tonight and brings it across the rest of the
area Tuesday morning. Thunder a possibility especially across
the southern half of the counties. With the surface low passing
across central/southeastern OH early Tuesday morning winds will
shift to the north. Upper trough axis exits Tuesday morning and
most of the area is expected to dry out. By Tuesday night High
pressure builds across the central Great Lakes and extends
across the Ohio Valley bringing in cooler and drier air for
Wednesday and reinforcing the northerly flow off of the cool
lake. For Wednesday expecting highs in the mid 40s near the lake
to the lower 50s well inland...the coolest day of the week. We
turn the weather over to the next low moving out of the southern
Plains to the southern Great Lakes/Ohio Valley for the
remainder of the week. For Thursday with an approaching warm
front, shower chances will begin to increase. Winds will likely
remain east to east-northeast across the lakeshore which will
keep the Toledo area cooler for yet another day.


The models continue to bring a series of upper lows from the
southwestern states that weaken as they track to the Great Lakes.

The next surface low is progged to cross the Great Lakes on Friday.
There is no agreement on the exact track of the low so while there
is good confidence for the threat of showers there is less
confidence on the temperature forecast. Will split the difference on
the high temperature forecast and there is probably more upside than
downside if we are in the warm sector much of the day. Will mention
thunder in the counties from around Mansfield and Akron south.

Showers could linger Friday night and into Saturday, especially
northeast OH and northwest PA. Forecast temperatures a little lower
than guidance on Saturday, especially near Lake Erie and in the
snowbelt with a north to northwest flow.

The models appear to be struggling in differentiating a northern
branch short wave on Sunday and the next upper low ejecting from the
southwestern states. There will likely be high pressure and dry air
at the surface and would just as well keep Sunday rainfree for now.
High temperatures will likely be near normal.


.AVIATION /18Z Monday THROUGH Saturday/...
Low level moisture has been unable to mix out as a swath of
higher moisture has extended from Michigan into northern Ohio.
This is limiting VFR to isolated pockets while most of the
region is capped with 2K foot ceilings. MFD being further south
with drier mid-level could see some duration of VFR for the
afternoon. MVFR conditions will deteriorate to IFR overnight as
a wave of low pressure moves across central OH passing just
south of CAK. The overrunning moisture will produce expanding
rain shield as the system moves into OH tonight, with most of it
associated with ceilings around 7-10k feet or lower. The system
will pull away from the area on Tuesday, however the wrap
around moisture and cool/nw flow will support IFR to MVFR
conditions through midday Tuesday.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR Tuesday. Non-VFR developing again on Thursday
and continuing into Friday.


A weakening front will slide across Lake Erie this morning. South
winds will diminish on eastern Lake Erie while southwest winds could
increase for a few hours on western Lake Erie. Winds and waves
should stay comfortably below small craft advisory criteria.

Low pressure will track south of Lake Erie on Tuesday and winds will
come around from the east backing northeast and north. The forecast
for winds and waves will be just below small craft advisory for
Tuesday. A small craft advisory may eventually be needed Wednesday
or more likely Thursday as the pressure gradient increases between
high pressure over eastern Canada and low pressure tracking across
the plains states.




NEAR TERM...Oudeman
SHORT TERM...Oudeman
LONG TERM...Kosarik
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