Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 180138
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
938 PM EDT SUN AUG 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO WILL DRIFT SOUTH
TONIGHT AND THEN STALL IN SOUTHERN OHIO MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE FRONT WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY THROUGH MID WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COUPLE OF SHOWERS REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN END OF THE AREA.
EXPECTING THESE TO DISSIPATE BY 06Z AND WILL THEN GO DRY THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. NEW GUIDANCE COMING IN DOES NOT SUPPORT
THE HIGH POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY FOR THE SE END OF THE
AREA. WILL LOWER PRECIP CHANCES CONSIDERABLY TO MATCH UP BETTER
WITH NEIGHBORS. THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD
BE ALONG THE U.S. 30 CORRIDOR. IT HAS DRIED OUT MORE AT LOW LEVELS
THAN EXPECTED SO HAVE ALSO MADE ADJUSTMENTS IN THAT REGARD. THERE
SHOULD BE A FAIR OF HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVERHEAD THE NEXT 24
HOURS SO MOSTLY CLOUDY LOOKS GOOD.  TEMPS IN BALLPARK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS TAKE THE STATIONARY/COLD FRONT SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND BY
MONDAY MORNING SHOULD BE WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA. LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE EAST ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS SRN OHIO MONDAY. MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY HOWEVER MOST OF THE
FORCING AND INSTABILITY WILL BE CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN MOST TIER
OF COUNTIES AND POINTS SOUTH. WILL HAVE POPS INCREASING FROM
SLIGHT CHANCE SOUTH THROUGH CHANCE TO A COUPLE HOURS OF LIKELY
DURING THE AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP THE NORTHEAST DRY AND WILL ALSO
CONFINE THE MENTION OF THUNDER TO THE SOUTH. MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD
BE DRY FOR MOST WITH MOISTURE AND THE SURFACE LOW EXITING EAST.
TUESDAY MORNING HOWEVER...ANOTHER LOW WILL BE IN THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES WITH A WARM FRONT ACROSS SRN IL/IN. MODELS SHOW A DEVELOPING
UPPER TROF OVER THE WESTERN LAKES WITH SHORT WAVES LINED UP READY
TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. WILL BRING CHANCE POPS INTO THE WEST
HALF IN THE MORNING AND THEN SPREAD CHANCE POPS EAST FOR THE
AFTERNOON AS POPS RISE TO LIKELY FAR WEST. WILL CONTINUE WITH
LIKELY MOST AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT AS WELL. WEDNESDAY STILL LOOK
PROBABLE FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE BEST CHANCE
EAST/NORTHEAST HOWEVER MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE NORTH
OF THE AREA ALONG THE TRACK OF THE LOW. TEMPS NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WILL FEEL LIKE SUMMER...WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES THAN
WE HAVE HAD IN A WHILE AND ELEVATED HUMIDITY LEVELS. THOSE
CONDITIONS WILL BRING A DAILY THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
HAD TO GO GENERIC WITH THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES...SURFACE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY REMAINS IN THE VICINITY TO FOCUS THUNDERSTORMS AND
DISTURBANCES WILL RIDE THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE. WAY TOO
EARLY TO KEY IN ON ANY TIMING. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WARMER...EXACT NUMBERS WILL BE AFFECTED BY CLOUD COVER...FRONTAL
POSITION...PRECIP. WILL GO WITH NUMBERS AS HIGH AS UPPER 80S ACROSS
THE WEST...BUT 90 MAY BE REACHED AT SOME POINT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NOT A LOT WILL CHANGE WITH THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. WIDELY SCT SHRA AROUND FDY AND MFD SHOULD CONTINUE TO
DISSIPATE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE DRIER AIR WILL TEND TO STAY OVER THE
NE PART OF THE AREA THRU MON.

AS THE SUN SETS...SOME OF THE CU OVER THE SW 2/3RDS OF THE AREA WILL
DISSIPATE WHILE THE PATCHY MID LEVEL CLOUDS TEND TO HANG AROUND. THE
ADDED BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS...LIGHT WINDS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
LEAD TO FOG DEVELOPMENT AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. FDY...MFD FOLLOWED
BY TOL AND CAK SHOULD HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE IFR IN THE FOG AS
THE DEWPOINTS WILL STAY THE HIGHEST OVER THE SW HALF OF THE AREA.

THE FOG AND STRATUS WILL DISSIPATE WITH DAYTIME HEATING BETWEEN 13Z
AND 15Z. A FEW SHRA/TSRA MAY DEVELOP AROUND CAK...MFD AND FDY MON
AFTERNOON BUT THE CHANCE REMAINS SMALL ENOUGH TO NOT MENTION AT ANY
GIVEN AIRPORT.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
QUIET PERIOD ON THE LAKE. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF THE LAKE
WILL GIVE WAY TO A WEAKENING LOW THAT WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS FOR
FRIDAY. WIND FIELDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE WEEK. NORTHEAST
THROUGH TUESDAY...OTHERWISE THEY WILL BE GENERALLY OF A SSW
DIRECTION. NO SMALL CRAFT ADV ARE ANTICIPATED THIS WEEK. BIGGEST
CONCERN WILL BE FOR A FEW ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS STARTING TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...OUDEMAN





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