Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 290800
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
400 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS IOWA WILL DISSIPATE AS IT REACHES OHIO THIS
WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THICKER CLOUD COVER WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE COURSE
OF THE DAY. YOUNGSTOWN WILL HAVE FILTERED SUN THE LONGEST BEFORE
GOING OVERCAST. DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL HAVE TO BE OVERCOME
BEFORE WE CAN GET PRECIPITATION FROM THE WEAK SYSTEM JUST TO OUR
WEST. A SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM MAY REACH THE I-75 CORRIDOR BEFORE 6PM
THIS EVENING BUT CHANCES ARE LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES MILDER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF
THE SOUTH WITH A LAKE BREEZE EXPECTED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
LAKESHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK SYSTEMS HAVE THEIR OWN CHALLENGES. DO NOT HAVE A GOOD FEEL
FOR WHO WILL GET RAIN WHEN AND HOW MUCH...IF ANY FOR SOME. IT IS
PROMISING THAT THERE IS MEASURABLE PRECIP TO OUR NORTHWEST AND
WEST...BUT THIS SYSTEM WILL LOSE MUCH OF THE LITTLE SUPPORT IT HAS
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THEREFORE BY THIS EVENING AREA HAS DECENT
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION...BUT STILL COULD NOT BE CONVINCED TO GO
AS HIGH AS EVEN 60 PERCENT. SOME OF THAT MOISTURE LINGERS ON
SUNDAY...BUT WITH WEAK CAPES AND LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORCING DO
NOT HAVE HIGH HOPES FOR PRECIP SUNDAY EITHER. AGAIN PRECIP CHANCES
ARE NO HIGHER THAN 50 PERCENT. BY MONDAY...MUCH OF THE BETTER
MOISTURE WILL HAVE BEEN NUDGED SOUTHWARD AND THE RIDGE WILL BE
BUILDING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THEREFORE DRY FORECAST FOR MONDAY
AND TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILDER THAN THEY HAVE BEEN AND EXPECTING
TEMPS TO CLIMB ABOVE 80 FOR SUNDAY AND REACH SOLIDLY IN THE MID
80S BY TUESDAY. LOWS IN LOWER AND MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE UNDER A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL ALLOW
FOR ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM. THE DRY GROUND
ACROSS THE REGION WILL ALLOW FOR A FAIRLY LARGE DIURNAL SWING TO
TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S AND HIGHS WELL INTO
THE 80S. THERE COULD BE A FEW 90S IF WE CAN AVOID ANY CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS CLOUDINESS. AS FAR AS THE CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS IT APPEARS
THAT IT WILL BE MINIMAL. IT IS DIFFICULT TO GET SIGNIFICANT RISING
MOTION WHEN 5H HEIGHTS ARE SO HIGH.&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AS A WEAKENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES TOWARD THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER
AND LIGHT DOWNSLOPING WINDS ACROSS THE EAST SHOULD KEEP FOG
DEVELOPMENT TO A MINIMUM. LAKE BREEZE WILL DEVELOP AGAIN TODAY
WITH THE MAIN IMPACTS BEING EAST OF CLEVELAND TO AROUND ERIE. THIS
AREA WILL SEE WINDS BECOME NORTHERLY. ELSEWHERE IT APPEARS THAT A
SOUTHERLY WIND WILL BE IN THE 5 TO 10 KNOT RANGE.

MOISTURE LEVELS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE INTO THE AFTERNOON. JUST
NOT A SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL TRIGGER TO KEY ON FOR DEVELOPMENT. WE
WILL LIKELY NEED TO WAIT ON OUTFLOW FROM SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
THAT DEVELOP WELL WEST OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. HOWEVER WE
WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND EXTREME NE OHIO FOR
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IF ENOUGH CONVERGENCE NEAR THE
HILLS OR ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE CAN MATERIALIZE. OTHERWISE IT
APPEARS THAT IT WILL BE THE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR
SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE SUNDAY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE NUDGED EASTWARD TODAY ALLOWING A WEAKENING
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE TOWARD THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. WINDS
MAY BRIEFLY BECOME SOUTHERLY ACROSS THE WESTERN BASIN TODAY. THERE
WILL BE A LAKE BREEZE WITH ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING FROM CLEVELAND TO
ERIE. THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PASS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE REGION BY SUNDAY
NIGHT AND THEN PERSIST INTO TUESDAY. IT LOOKS AS IF THE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE WEAK ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR A LAKE BREEZE
BOUNDARY TO DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON. WINDS LOOK TO BE 5 TO 10 KNOTS
EXCEPT FOR ALONG THE LAKESHORE EACH AFTERNOON WHERE THE LAKE BREEZE
INFLUENCE MAY NUDGE ONSHORE WINDS UP TO JUST OVER 10 KNOTS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...MULLEN
AVIATION...MULLEN
MARINE...MULLEN


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