Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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427
FXUS61 KCLE 090915
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
415 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST. ARCTIC
AIR OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES THROUGH MID WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS
THE AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO DRIFT OVERHEAD TODAY. WE ARE SOMEWHAT
IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS HERE IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE COLD FRONT
IS OFF TO THE EAST AND A STRONGER SHORT WAVE WAS DIVING SOUTH OF
THE AREA.

I SUSPECT THAT THE LULL WILL FILL IN JUST ABOUT ANY TIME THOUGH AS
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WAS DROPPING SOUTH FROM THE NORTHERN LAKES AND
THERE HAS BEEN SOME TENDENCY FOR THE SOUTHERN SNOW TO SPREAD BACK
NORTH DUE TO DIVERGENCE ALOFT ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW.
THERE WILL PROBABLY NOT BE A LOT OF SNOW IN ANY ONE SPOT TODAY BUT
SNOW SHOWERS JUST ABOUT ANY TIME. WHEN ALL IS SAID AND DONE...
ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY BE A HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH WITH
PERHAPS LOCALLY A COUPLE OF INCHES.

THE AIR MASS IS NOT ALL THAT COLD BUT COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE
TODAY. WITH THE CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS...TEMPS WILL NOT RISE
MUCH. HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WE WILL GET ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
AND COLD ADVECTION WILL INCREASE. THE SURFACE TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN
NORTH OF THE AREA WILL SWING THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. THIS SHOULD
CAUSE A GENERAL INCREASE IN THE SNOW ESPECIALLY AS IT CROSSES LAKE
ERIE WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THE SYNOPTIC SNOW WILL TRANSITION TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN THE
SNOWBELT AS 850 MB TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO DROP TO -20C WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE INSTABILITY REMAINS MODERATE TO EXTREME OFF LAKE ERIE
INTO THURSDAY. THE COMBINATION OF ENHANCED SYNOPTIC SNOW STARTING
TONIGHT AND THE LAKE EFFECT PERSISTING INTO THURSDAY WILL LIKELY
PRODUCE SNOW FALL IN EXCESS OF A FOOT IN SOME AREAS OF THE
SNOWBELT. THE BEST BET WOULD BE INLAND ERIE COUNTY PA BUT THE
ENTIRE SNOWBELT IS AT RISK OF EXCEEDING WARNING CRITERIA. NOT AS
MUCH CONFIDENCE ABOUT THE LAKESHORE AS WINDS WILL VEER TO
NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY WHICH TENDS TO PUSH MOST OF THE SNOW
INLAND. WILL ISSUE A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH STARTING LATE TONIGHT
AND ENDING THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE ENTIRE SNOWBELT.

THE SNOW AND SNOW FLURRIES WILL TAPER OFF ELSEWHERE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS DRIER ARCTIC AIR OVER SPREADS THE AREA. SOME RANDOM FLURRIES OFF
LAKE MICHIGAN MAY PERSIST INTO EARLY THURSDAY. SOME SUN WILL PEAK
OUT ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO ON THURSDAY. TEMPS NEAR THE LOWER
GUIDANCE DUE TO THE ARCTIC AIR.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW LOOKS TO TAPER OFF THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS NORTHWEST
PA AS WINDS SHIFT MORE WESTERLY AND MOISTURE LEVELS DECREASE. THERE
MAY STILL BE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS BUT THE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
ISOLATED. SNOW WILL INCREASE AGAIN BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH ALL
LOCATIONS HAVING CHANCES OF SEEING SOME LIGHT SNOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT
CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. MODELS
INDICATE THAT THE AIR IN THE WAKE OF THIS CLIPPER WILL BE THE
COLDEST WE HAVE SEEN THIS WINTER SEASON. ONCE AGAIN THE LAKE EFFECT
SNOW WILL INCREASE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WE WILL NEED TO
MONITOR THE CONNECTION TO LAKE HURON ON SATURDAY AND SEE WHICH BANDS
GET THE BOOST ON THE NORTHWEST FLOW. DRIER AIR AND LOWERING
INVERSION HEIGHTS SHOULD LIMIT OR END THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ON SUNDAY
BUT AT SOME POINT SUNDAY NIGHT THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION. MODELS DIFFER ON THE TRACK OF THIS LOW SO HAVE GONE NO
HIGHER THAN CHANCES POPS AT THIS TIME. THIS LOW LOOKS LIKE IT COULD
BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE ENTIRE COUNTY WARNING AREA.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
IN THE WAKE OF THE CLIPPER FRIDAY NIGHT THIS COLD AIR WILL DRIVE
TEMPERATURES INTO THE TEENS. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL LIKELY BE IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO AROUND 10. SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST
NIGHT WITH LOWS NEAR OR BELOW ZERO COMMON. THE REGION WILL WARM
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH HIGHS BACK TO AROUND FREEZING ON MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GREAT LAKES
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A SERIES OF TROUGHS TRIGGERING SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS. LIGHT SNOW IS COMING TO AN END AT CLE/CAK BUT WILL
LINGER THROUGH AROUND 10Z AT YNG/ERI. THERE ARE A FEW BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OHIO BUT THESE WILL FILL IN WITH
A MIX OF IFR/MVFR INTO TUESDAY MORNING. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
WILL RETURN ON TUESDAY AND HAVE TRIED TO TIME THOSE INTO THE
TERMINALS. THE SNOW WILL BE MOSTLY LIGHT IN NATURE UNTIL SOME
HEAVIER SNOW MOVES BACK INTO THE SNOWBELT ON TUESDAY NIGHT.
WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE BREEZY ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO
20+ KNOTS AT TOL/FDY/CLE.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEK IN SNOW AND LOWER
CEILINGS AS A SERIES OF CLIPPERS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY TODAY AND INCREASE TO
20 TO 25 KNOTS. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY ON WEDNESDAY
AND REMAIN THAT WAY INTO THURSDAY AT 15 TO 25 KNOTS. THERE WILL BE A
LULL BETWEEN STORM SYSTEMS LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY.
SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF A TROUGH ON FRIDAY BUT AS WINDS
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER SEASON
WILL ARRIVE. WINDS WILL BE NEAR 30 KNOTS JUST AHEAD OF THE TROUGH
AND FOR A FEW HOURS IN ITS WAKE. FREEZING SPRAY MAY OCCUR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT BUT APPEARS TO BE A DEFINITE THING FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR OHZ012>014-089.
PA...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...MULLEN
AVIATION...MULLEN
MARINE...MULLEN



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