Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH
FXUS61 KCLE 240551
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
151 AM EDT Mon Apr 24 2017
High pressure will continue to work east across the region tonight
and Monday as a cold front settles south into the Great Lakes. High
pressure will regain control over the region as the front lifts back
north Monday night. Low pressure will track from the southern Plains
Wednesday into the Great Lakes Thursday bringing a cold front
through the area.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
The high clouds are beginning to move off to the east. Have made
some minor adjustments to temps and sky cover but otherwise
things are on track.
Previous...Very quiet near term as high pressure is sandwiched
over the region by an upper low across the SE US and an arctic
front settling into the northern Great Lakes. Little sensible
weather concerns aside from some high cirrus skirting the
southern part of the area from the southeast US system. Temps
overnight should drop into the low/mid 40s. Forecasted lows near
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Short term period continues quiet as high pressure remains
entrenched across the region. Dry conditions are expected through
Monday evening. Southern stream upper low will eject along the east
coast Monday night into Tuesday. This may bring some rain showers to
NW PA and extreme NE OH late Monday night through Tuesday afternoon,
so will keep inherited slight chance/low chances pops. Dry
conditions expected Tuesday night through Wednesday as ridging
continues. A sharp upper trough/surface low will swing from the
southern Plains into the western Great Lakes Wednesday/Wednesday
night, bringing a cold front towards the area. Showers and
thunderstorms will be possible along/ahead of the front. Models seem
to be a bit slower with the front, so trimmed back pops to west of
the OH-13 corridor after midnight Wednesday night. Warm, southerly
flow will keep temperatures above normal through the period. Kept
highs generally a degree or two above MOS Tuesday and Wednesday.
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Thursday begins with a cold front just to our west. Models take the
front across the area during the day so will have chance pops mainly
west in the morning and mainly east in the afternoon. The low will
be moving nne so dont think wrap around moisture will get into the
area for afternoon/evening. Next chance of precip will come Friday
night as a warm front moves into/through the area. Will need to hang
onto chance pops Saturday but mainly for the morning. Expect
increasing sun Saturday as the warm sector overspreads the area.
Will continue chance pops Saturday night and Sunday but with the
area in the warm sector would expect only scattered coverage.
.AVIATION /06Z Monday THROUGH Friday/...
Upper level low pressure over the southeastern US will
eventually start to move up the East Coast of the US tonight.
This will help to spread some cloud cover toward the region but
it will be at the middle and high levels. So VFR conditions are
expected into tonight.
Winds will be light and variable through sunset but should
increase from the east. Closer to the lakeshore winds will turn
a bit more to the northeast. Winds will likely become gusty
during the afternoon and may reach 20 to 25 knots. Strongest
near the lakeshore.
OUTLOOK...Non-VFR possible in advance of a cold front Thursday
and then with showers and thunderstorms Thursday afternoon into
early Friday morning.
Winds will remain light from the east to southeast overnight with
high pressure over the lake. A weak cold front will drop south
across the lake under the ridge overnight and should stall across
northern Ohio Monday morning. For the day Monday strong high
pressure centered from northern Ontario to Quebec will tighten the
pressure gradient on the lake. As a result east winds will increase
to 15 to 20 knots. Waves should build to at least 3 feet and may
approach small craft criteria central and western basins. Winds will
shift southeast Monday night into Tuesday and decrease a bit as the
pressure gradient weakens. Winds will veer to south Wednesday night
in response to low pressure moving into the central lakes. A cold
front extending south from the low will pass west to east across
Lake Erie Thursday veering winds to the southwest. High pressure
will build in from the west on Friday