Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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664
FXUS61 KCLE 160900
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
400 AM EST Tue Jan 16 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Weakening low pressure across lower Michigan will drift
northeast today and leave a trough across the area for tonight.
High pressure will push up the Ohio Valley Wednesday and
Thursday then weaken and shift to the southeast U.S. for
Saturday. This will bring a warming trend to the area for the
second half of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Cold air is really pushing into the area on the backside of
the clipper which is now broadly centered across lower
Michigan/Ontario. Single digit readings are commonplace across
IN and western OH including into the Findlay area. Hancock and
Wood counties are really the only portion of our area that will
be flirting with the -10 wind chill criteria through around 9 am
this morning. For this limited and marginal situation, we will
continue just to mention it in the HWO and in the forecast
itself. Interestingly enough, guidance temperatures across the
area today have quite the spread. Not quite sure what the MET
guidance is seeing bringing FDY all the way up to 18 later this
afternoon especially after seeing the cold located upstream.
This cold air is just now arriving and therefore have sided
with the cooler MAV and EC numbers. Far eastern areas still
will have snow chances and only minor accumulations if any.
Elsewhere only a few flurries here and there. Any breaks in the
overcast will be limited and fill back in.

Tonight the upper trough rotates across. Have the mention of
flurries with this. Lake effect/enhancement a tough call with
an ice covered lake. With the trough swinging across have snow
shower chances across primarily Erie Co PA overnight with the
lake possibly providing some enhancement. Nothing organized.
Again guidance temperatures vary. Have gone on the colder side,
but not as cold as the EC hoping that cloud cover keeps us away
from too many sub zero temperatures. Winds will be lighter and
wind chills likely will not reach colder than the -10 mark.

Warm advection begins Wednesday and the area should recover
nicely into the upper teens and lower 20s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A quiet stretch of weather is in store later this week with a slow
warming trend developing. Shortwave ridging will be overhead on
Wednesday night followed by a compact upper wave passing northeast
of the area on Thursday. Southwesterly flow and warm advection will
be on the increase as the gradient tightens between surface high
pressure over the Ohio Valley and the approaching trough to the
north. Low levels will be dry with just passing mid and high clouds
and expecting partly to mostly sunny skies on Thursday and Friday.

High pressure along the Gulf Coast shifts to the east coast Friday
into Saturday allowing low level moisture return to develop. The
cloud field will thicken on Saturday with continued warm advection
and increasing isentropic ascent. High temperatures through the
period will gradually climb from the mid 20s on Thursday to the
lower 40s on Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The long term begins with a deep upper trough over the four corners
region and ridging across the eastern United States. Light rain
showers are possible Saturday night into early Sunday as a warm
front lifts north across the area. Temperatures on Sunday in the
warm sector will approach 50 degrees or better, melting the snowpack
once again. The upper low is expected to lift out of the Plains and
move northeast across the Midwest and upper Great Lakes Sunday night
through Monday night. Showers will accompany the occluded front as
it sweeps eastward Sunday night into Monday. Current timing suggests
highs on Monday will occur early in the day, with temperatures
falling behind the front to near normal values by Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/...
Largely MVFR for the remainder of the night. Steady light snow
will continue a while longer at CAK/YNG although it is really
close to being finished at CAK. This will continue the IFR
conditions there. Across the western terminals a few breaks will
allow for temporary pop ups to VFR. Weakening surface low will
remain north of the lake today with the upper trough arriving
for Tuesday night. Have continued the MVFR through the day
today as the most likely scenario, but drying/VFR noted just
upstream. Higher confidence that non-VFR conditions take place
Tuesday evening as the upper trough approaches. Southwest winds
will persist through the TAF period.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR likely Tuesday night into Wednesday with a
gradual shift to mainly just the snowbelt later on Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Southwest winds will increase to 10 to 20 knots on Lake Erie today
behind a cold front. Winds will relax some Tuesday night into
Wednesday morning as a weak trough moves across the lake. Late
Wednesday into Thursday southwest winds will increase on the lake
again as the gradient tightens between high pressure over the Ohio
Valley and a series of troughs sliding across the upper lakes.
Southwest winds of 20-30 knots are possible on Thursday. Breezy
southwest winds of 10-20 knots continue into the weekend with a
return to above normal temperatures.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Oudeman
NEAR TERM...Oudeman
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...Oudeman
MARINE...KEC



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