Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 151737
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1237 PM EST Wed Nov 15 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will continue to move east of the area today. Low
pressure will move east across the central Great Lakes and force a
cold front east across the area this evening. A trough will linger
back west across the local area through Thursday.  High pressure
will begin to build east across the area Friday ahead of the next
cold front. A rapidly deepening low pressure system will move
northeast into the Great Lakes and bring with it a strong cold front
and stormy conditions for the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Solid area of showers have made it to the Ohio border. Similar
timing is still expected and made only minor adjustments. This
activity will march east this morning into the early afternoon
Some thunderstorm activity occurred over Illinois but I think
this will diminish and will not mention any thunder across our
area at this time. Temperatures are running a few degrees cooler
than previously forecast and have followed that trend in
lowering overall highs for the day and adjusting the hourly
temperatures.

Previous Discussion...
Surface high pressure will begin to move east and out of the
area today as a cold front approaches from the west. Models have
slowed the forward motion of the front slightly and will delay
the passage until this evening. A swath of fairly good moisture
will move east with the cold front and bring a round of showers
to the local area. Rain should begin to move into the western
portions of the forecast area by mid morning. Latest satellite
imagery shows showers already trying to develop over Indiana and
Illinois.

Cold front will move east of the area tonight and showers will taper
off to some lake effect rain showers and mixed with snow showers
over the inland northeast.  Western and southern portions should see
a drying trend tonight into Thursday behind the front as drier air
associated with the high pressure begins to push into the region.

Winds will be on the increase as well ahead of the front as gradient
increases with time this morning.  Wind shift will be gradual with
the frontal passage from the south shifting to the southwest and
then west by Thursday morning.

Temperatures ahead of the front will run about 6 to 10 degrees
warmer than behind the front for highs today and tomorrow. Overnight
lows will actually be warmer tonight due to the cloud cover and lack
of radiational cooling.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Warm advection will get underway on Thursday night and the flow will
begin to veer and shear so whatever lake effect is lingering will
end. Low temperatures are tricky depending on how long the
stratocumulus lingers. HIgh pressure will be overhead by daybreak so
the clearing should work across the area but it may take most of the
night in the snowbelt.

High clouds will increase on Friday. The southeast flow in the
boundary layer will keep it dry unless some drops make it to the
surface across NW OH later in the day. Do not want to go to warm on
temps given the high clouds and perhaps some virga. Highs in the 40s
to near 50.

Showers should develop Friday night into Saturday in the strong warm
advection and increasing low level jet. There is enough elevated
CAPE to mention thunder. Temps may drop off some in the evening,
then likely rise overnight.

The GFS remains several hours faster with the front on Saturday,
which would make a big difference in the hourly temperature since it
will continue to warm ahead of the front. Will go for highs in the
mid 50s. Will continue to mention a chance of thunder. Wind will be
an issue and a wind advisory may be needed depending on how
well the wind can mix to the surface.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Temps will fall quickly Saturday night into Sunday although the
coldest chunk of air is progged to slide by to the north and just
graze the area early next week. There would seem to be a window for
decent lake effect snow showers from the predawn hours Sunday into
Sunday night. The NW flow would favor inland areas of the snowbelt.
Highs Sunday in the 30s. High pressure will start to build in on
Monday. Highs in the 30s perhaps nearing 40 across NW OH.

The next reinforcing cold front appears as though it will come
quickly on Tuesday. Not sure how much moisture there will be with
the system although more lake effect is likely in its wake.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Wednesday THROUGH Monday/...
Area of rain and steadily lowering ceiling will work its way
across the terminals this afternoon through evening. Entire area
will have a period of IFR ceilings for several hours. For the
most part the rain is contributing to MVFR vsby, but a temporary
dip to IFR possible in the heavier showers. Cold front is still
way to the west and will pass across the terminals closer to
midnight. MVFR ceilings will then continue carrying us through
midday Thursday. South winds will pick up this afternoon, with
gusts continuing through the night. Rain/snow showers then
possible across northeast OH/nw PA Thursday as a secondary
trough swings across the eastern Great Lakes. Snow most likely
at higher elevations.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR persists across northeast Ohio and northwest
Pennsylvania into Thursday evening. Non-VFR returns area wide
by Saturday afternoon and in the snowbelt Saturday night through
Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
Downsloping flow off the higher terrain in PA has caused winds
to increase a little faster with speeds near 20 knots and gusts
in excess of 30+ knots this morning. Started the Small Craft
Advisory now east of Geneva-on-the-Lake with all other areas
starting at 4 PM.

Previous discussion...South winds will increase on Lake Erie
today ahead of a cold front, probably getting up close to 20
knots late today. We will clearly reach small craft conditions
after the cold front crosses the lake, reaching the western
basin this evening and the eastern half of the lake tonight.
Will post the small craft advisory giving a couple of hours to
spare since south to southwest winds may be marginally strong
enough just ahead of the front, starting at 4 PM on the western
basin and 7 PM on the eastern half. Winds will reach 30 knots at
time by early Thursday. It will take until Friday for the winds
to calm down and begin to veer. Low pressure will deepen
significantly as it crosses the Great Lakes this weekend and
gales of November will arrive later Saturday into Sunday. Storm
force winds are not out of the question.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Friday for LEZ148-149.
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 PM EST
     Thursday for LEZ142>144.
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 AM EST
     Friday for LEZ145>147.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Lombardy
NEAR TERM...Lombardy/Oudeman
SHORT TERM...Kosarik
LONG TERM...Kosarik
AVIATION...Oudeman
MARINE...KEC/Kosarik


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