Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 190421
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1221 AM EDT Wed Jul 19 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain in control through Wednesday morning.
A weak area of low pressure will move east across the Southern
Great Lakes Wednesday into Wednesday night, forcing a weak cold
front southeast across the area. A ridge of high pressure and a
surge of warm air will return back north as the cold front
becomes a warm front Thursday. The ridge will then persist
through Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
The upper flow will remain WNW thru Wed night while weak high
pressure tends to prevail at the surface except for a dissipating
weak cold front that moves se into Lake Erie Wed.

The upside to this weather pattern is the forecast area will
continue to see fair weather for the most part through this forecast
period with only isolated mainly late afternoon and evening
shra/tsra.

Warm air advection will continue through Wednesday ahead of the
front. No significant change in the air mass is expected behind the
front.

Patchy late night fog is expected each night due to the warm and
moist air and light winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
The period will be very unsettled as a warm and humid airmass
gets established over the region. Temps and precip chances and
timing are tough because a lot of what occurs here depends on
what happens upstream. MCS develop looks likely over MN/WI early
Thursday and again Friday. Low level thickness contours take
this activity ESE over the local area. The guidance for Thursday
shows the first MCS dissipating before it reaches the area. Not
sure this is a realistic scenario so will continue with at
least small chance pops. Better chances exist the remainder of
the period...especially Friday and Friday night. Temps will
depend on how much debris cloudiness is over the area each day.
If full or near full sunshine occurs Thursday or Friday then
highs will have to be bumped up. Will keep pops in the high
chance range with little confidence in the timing of any of the
waves of precip.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The models are in better agreement with a wave crossing the Great
Lakes on Sunday, then the cold front sagging across the area as high
pressure builds across eastern Canada early next week. A trailing
short wave is progged to drop across the Great Lakes Sunday night
and early Monday and this feature remains somewhat in dispute as
the GFS closes off an upper low with slower movement across the
northern Great Lakes. We will take a "wait and see" approach on
that. The forecast will be dry by Tuesday.

Temperatures will depend greatly on the amount of clouds and showers
Sunday into Monday. Will stick close to guidance given the
uncertainty. Sunday should remain warm and humid but temperatures
and dew points should trend down as the Canadian high builds early
in the week. High temperatures look like they should be below normal
by Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/...
General high pressure and stable airmass across the area however
a cold front across the central lakes will approach the area
during the day before stalling just to our north. Could see
isolated late afternoon thunderstorms with best chances west.
Given isolated nature have left out of TAFS for now except for
KTOL and KFDY with VCTS after 21Z. Otherwise aside from patchy
early morning MVFR fog both this morning and Thursday morning
expect VFR conditions across the area.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR possible Thursday through Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
Light southwest to west southwest flow will continue till a cold
front crosses the lake sometime Friday morning.  The pressure
gradient will be weak enough that onshore flow will likely develop
over the immediate lakeshore the next couple of days.  The northwest
flow behind the front will be light and should switch back to the
southwest Saturday night.  Southwest winds will increase slightly on
Sunday as low pressure moves across the central Great Lakes.  The
weather beginning tomorrow afternoon will be unsettled through the
end of the period with several rounds of showers and thunderstorms
expected.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Lombardy
NEAR TERM...Lombardy
SHORT TERM...Kubina
LONG TERM...Kosarik
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...Kubina



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