Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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284
FXUS61 KCLE 181243
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
743 AM EST Wed Jan 18 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper low will track east across Ohio into eastern Pennsylvania
this morning, with a ridge of high pressure building northeast
through the Ohio valley and southern Great Lakes this afternoon
through Thursday. Low pressure will track northeast through the
Ohio valley and southern Great Lakes Thursday night through
Friday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Upper low making quick progress east-southeastward this morning,
currently over SE OH/SW PA. Showers quickly moving east-southeast
as well, so just minor updates to timing/trend of pops. Still
carrying patchy drizzle through the morning for areas outside of
the showers. No changes otherwise from previous forecast.

Original discussion...
Upper low currently moving eastward across central Ohio per w/v
imagery. This is bringing mainly drizzle to much of the area early
this morning, with a few embedded rain showers progged to track
east/southeast across the area through the morning/early afternoon
hours. The best chances for precip will be along/north of a Toledo
to Medina to Canton line. For now, will maintain rain shower wording
for most of the area, however soundings and upstream obs do support
a stray snowflake/ice pellet mixing in. Will only mention frozen
precip type in higher elevations of NW PA this morning, with surface
temps expected to remain in the mid/upper 30s through the morning
elsewhere. Nevertheless, any frozen precip should be mixed with rain
and inconsequential. Will taper off drizzle from west to east
through the late morning/early afternoon hours. Any precip amounts
should remain light and under a tenth of an inch. Mainly dry
conditions are expected this afternoon.

Skies should remain mostly cloudy through the daytime hours, with
perhaps some breaks in the cloud cover along/west of the I-75
corridor late this afternoon. Kept highs for the day on the lower
end of MOS guidance, perhaps a degree or two cooler than the
previous forecast in some spots. Most areas should flirt with 40
degrees this afternoon, aside from higher elevations of NE OH/NW PA,
where mid/upper 30s will be common.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A ridge of high pressure will quickly build east across the region
Wednesday night through Thursday, providing dry conditions and above
normal temperatures as return flow/WAA regime returns. Wednesday
night will be the coolest night of the short term period, with lows
around the freezing mark as ridge axis works across the area. A
warming trend is expected Thursday/Thursday night ahead of the next
system, with highs in the low to upper 40s Thursday and lows
Thursday night ranging from the low 30s across northeast
OH/northwest PA to the upper 30s near Findlay/Marion.

A cutoff low over the southern Plains Thursday will track towards
the Great Lakes through Friday, shearing out in the process. Strong
return flow/GOMEX connection and forcing/fgen ahead of this system
will bring rain showers back to the area early Friday morning
through Friday afternoon. For now, held with high likely pops from
SW to NE across the area from 09Z through 21Z. The only thing
precluding cat pops at this point is shearing nature of the wave as
it lifts north through the area and slight timing difference between
model solutions. Temperatures will be well above normal
Friday/Friday night in the 40s to low 50s.

Saturday should be mainly dry, with weak forcing/broad mid level
ridging across the area with low pressure over the upper Midwest and
an active southern stream across the southern CONUS north through
the Tennessee valley. Temperatures should be well above normal in
the mid/upper 50s. Brought back chance pops Saturday night as low
pressure deepens across the mid Mississippi valley tracking toward
the Ohio valley.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A somewhat complicated weather pattern is progged to develop over
the weekend with a strong southern branch upper low and an upper low
over the northern plains. The southern branch low is progged to
drift northeast by early next week. The models continue to advertise
various solutions so no confidence yet in the exact track of the
upper low or the associated surface low. There may end up being a
reflection of a surface low in the Ohio Valley with an east coast
low as well. The best chance of showers would seem to be Sunday into
Monday.

Temperatures are problematic depending on the exact track of the
surface low. No chance of snow but we could end up in a northeast
flow with a somewhat chilly rain by Monday... or we could end up in
a mild southeast flow. The forecast temperatures will be close to the
blended guidance for now.

The GFS is slower to eject the upper low early next week. Since
there is another system on its heels, the faster solutions may be
more reasonable. Will taper off the shower chances by Tuesday.
Nothing but Pacific air behind the system and temperatures will
remain above average.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/...
Upper level disturbance will move east of the area this morning
and light precipitation will taper off. Extensive area of stratus
and IFR ceilings to the west will be slow to improve. Ceilings may
begin to improve to MVFR this afternoon but some TAF sites
especially in northeast OH and northwest PA may remain IFR into
Thursday. Light west flow will become south to southwest by
tonight.

OUTLOOK...Periods of non-VFR will linger into Thursday NE OH/NW
PA. Non-VFR Friday and again on Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
Decent west to southwest wind on Lake Erie behind the cold front and
likely being enhanced with the trough moving through early this
morning. Will issue a small craft advisory east of Cleveland until
10 AM although the wind and waves may remain near small craft
advisory into the afternoon. Winds will back to the south and
southeast on Thursday as high pressure slides across the lower Great
Lakes. Weak low pressure will drift across the Great Lakes Friday.
There should not be too much wind with the system with little in the
way of wind shift. Low pressure will deepen across the southern
states this weekend and winds on the lake will back to the east and
northeast.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for
     LEZ147>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Greenawalt
NEAR TERM...Greenawalt
SHORT TERM...Greenawalt
LONG TERM...Kosarik
AVIATION...Kosarik
MARINE...Kosarik



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