Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 270548
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
148 AM EDT Sat May 27 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure over the Southern plains will will track across the
upper Ohio Valley late tonight into Saturday morning. A second
system will track across the Central Lakes late Sunday dragging
another cold front across the forecast area.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Earlier convection over Indiana has made its way into northwest
Ohio and remains largely in tact, so have raised pops to
categorical for at least 2/3rds of the CWA. However, this area
of convection has greatly diminished in terms of thunder so gave
the overnight forecast more of a rain with isolated thunder
flavor in lieu of just a blanket likely thunder. The only
question mark for this evening is how far northeast across the
area it will rain. The general trajectory of the rain is to just
the south of east so there is a chance that places like Erie PA
may not see any rain. Therefore...left the far north east areas
in just a chance pop for the overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
May be some lingering showers in the East tomorrow morning...but the
precip should track quickly east with the Low.   The remainder of
the day and into the evening should be dry.   But the respite from
the rain will be short lived.   Next round of showers and TSRA
expected to move into NW OH late Saturday night into Sunday morning
ahead of the next system.  By Sunday evening low pressure tracks
into central lakes with the trailing cold front moving across WRN
OH.  Expect convection to fire up ahead of the cold front Sunday
evening.   SPC has the SWRN portion of the forecast area in a
marginal risk as dew point creep into the lower 60s and cape push to
near 1500 j/kg.   This combined with an upper level short wave that
will move across the forecast area.   The low tracks NE of the
forecast area Sunday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Upper level trough will persist over the central Great Lakes Tuesday
through Thursday with lots of uncertainty when pieces of energy
moving through the flow will impact the region. There is a mention
of rain in most days of the long term in the grids. it seems that
the better chances will be across the eastern half of the region.
Cloud cover and any showers will help to keep the region cooler.
Most locations will be slightly below seasonal averages.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/...
Weakening convective complex is now sliding through the western
terminals with primarily MVFR vsby. It will be hard pressed to
get meaningful rain into ERI. There is very little thunder
remaining and therefore have not mentioned at MFD. Thunder will
be beyond FDY shortly. Post rain ceilings drop to MVFR.
Entirely possible to get areas of IFR for several hours during
the early morning hours, especially for FDY/MFD...uncertain
about TOL. With less rain reaching CAK/YNG/ERI have pulled the
IFR from those terminals. Not much model guidance supporting the
low ceilings/vsby. So majority of the aviation restrictions
occur before 16-18Z SAT with VFR expected for the remainder of
the period. Light east winds overall, but backed to the
northeast for ERI and CLE this afternoon.

OUTLOOK...Some non-VFR possible across eastern OH/inland NW PA
late Saturday night/Sunday morning. Areas non- VFR conditions
Sunday/Sunday night with showers/thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds will remain 10 knots or less into Sunday as a couple pieces of
low pressure move near Lake Erie. The low tonight will remain south
of the lake but the stronger storm system on Sunday will move across
Michigan into Ontario. We then have an upper level trough that will
linger over the central Great Lakes for an extended period of time.
Winds will become westerly in the wake of a cold front Sunday
evening and remain that way into at least Tuesday. The longer fetch
with 15 to 20 knot winds will likely build waves enough for the
eastern third of the lake to produce small craft conditions Monday
into Tuesday.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJB
NEAR TERM...Sefcovic
SHORT TERM...DJB
LONG TERM...Mullen
AVIATION...Oudeman
MARINE...Mullen


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