Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 271740
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
140 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP SLOWLY SOUTHEAST FROM THE PLAINS
TODAY REACHING THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL AFFECT
THE AREA ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ABOUT TO MOVE ONTO THE WESTERN END OF LAKE
ERIE. ALREADY SEEING AN INCREASE IN THE LIFT AHEAD OF IT AS
RETURNS OVER LAKE ERIE INCREASE IN COVERAGE. MOST LOCATIONS WILL
SEE SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. STILL LOOKS
LIKE LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS FROM ERIE AND HURON COUNTIES EASTWARD
ACROSS THE SNOWBELT. ACCUMULATIONS MAINLY A DUSTING TO AN INCH.
INTENSITY MAY INCREASE ENOUGH TO SEE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ON
AREA ROADWAYS...ESPECIALLY AS WE APPROACH SUNSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE MOISTURE WILL BE HIGHEST EARLY THIS EVENING SO THIS WILL BE THE
BEST CHANCE FOR A LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION OVER THE SNOW BELT...AN
INCH OR TWO. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN HINTING AT SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW
OVER PARTS OF NW OHIO WITH A FLOW OFF OF LAKE HURON. KEPT HIGHER
POPS BUT STILL KEPT THE SNOW ACCUMULATION UNDER AN INCH.

THE THREAT OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL DECREASE RAPIDLY LATE TONIGHT AS THE
RIDGE AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN. SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS COULD LINGER
SATURDAY MORNING OVER NW PA AS THE HIGH MOVES IN. ELSEWHERE SATURDAY
WILL BE DRY WITH SUNSHINE.

THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT IS NOT CLEAR
CUT...MAINLY WITH REGARD TO TIMING AND PRECIPITATION TYPE. NO MAJOR
STORMS ARE EXPECTED. FOR SUNDAY KEPT THE CHANCE MAINLY OVER NW OH
DURING THE AFTERNOON. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AS A FRONT MOVES THROUGH MANY
OF THE MODELS TRY TO INDICATE THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL
BE EARLY. THE ECMWF WHICH IS SLOWER HAS THE THREAT ALL NIGHT.
BECAUSE OF THAT DID NOT PUT IN ANY TIMING.

FOR MONDAY MOST OF THE MODELS ARE TRYING TO INDICATE A DRY DAY. SOME
QUESTION ABOUT THIS...SO FOR THE TIMING BEING KEPT LOW CHANCE POPS
OVER NE OH AND NW PA. DRY MONDAY NIGHT AS WE WAIT FOR THE NEXT
WEATHER SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AND WILL REMAIN AMPLIFIED AS IT HITS THE EAST COAST. THE
AMPLIFICATION OF THE RIDGE IS IN RESPONSE TO THE DEEPENING TROUGH
AHEAD OF THE RIDGE AND VIGOROUS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALOFT FOLLOWING
THE RIDGE.

A FAST MOVING WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED POSITIVE
VORTICITY MAXIMUM WILL MOVE QUICKLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA ON TUESDAY. MOISTURE WILL BE COMPACT WITH THIS FEATURE BUT
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SPREAD RAIN INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AND THEN EXIT
TO THE EAST TUESDAY NIGHT. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF CANADA DURING THE LATTER HALF OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD AND WILL FORCE A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE REGION.
THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR AS A COLD FRONT
STALLS JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT. THE WARM
FRONT WILL LIKELY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA FOR MID
AFTERNOON...ENHANCING THE LIGHT SNOW FOR NRN OH/NW PA THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. WIDESPREAD MVFR WITH AREAS OF IFR IN THE SHSN. ON
THE OUTSKIRTS TOWARD TOL/FDY CONDITIONS ARE VFR AND ARE EXPECTED
TO LARGELY STAY THAT WAY...UNLESS SOME OF THE MVFR CEILINGS BRUSH
THOSE TERMINALS. NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TONIGHT AND WITH THE
COLD AIR ALOFT AND THE FLOW OFF OF THE LAKE EXPECT TO CONTINUE TO
SEE CEILINGS ON EITHER SIDE OF 3K FEET. DRIER AIR AND RIDGING WORK
INTO THE AREA MORE EFFECTIVELY SATURDAY MORNING...SCATTERING OUT
THE REMAINING CEILINGS.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR LINGERING ACROSS FAR NE OH/NW PA INTO
SATURDAY. AREAS OF NON VFR POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND
AGAIN TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST WILL DIMINISH BY THIS EVENING OVER THE
LAKE AND REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON SUNDAY AND INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS AND THEN
DIMINISH AGAIN BY MONDAY AND GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. WESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON TUESDAY. SO FAR NOT EXPECTING
NOTHING STRONG THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...LOMBARDY




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