Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 180249
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1049 PM EDT Tue Oct 17 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
An expansive area of high pressure was centered across the Ohio
Valley and mid Atlantic states. A weakening cold front will
drop across the Great Lakes on Thursday but dissipate as it
reaches the local area. The high pressure area will slide off
the east coast by Sunday. The next cold front will reach the
area Sunday night or Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Winds have decoupled to some extent well inland, with light
winds being reported in Portage County and near KBJJ and points
south. Will make sure we have temps a little lower in these
areas given the low dew points, lows in the upper 30s.
Conversely, will nudge the low temperature forecast up a degree
or two near the lakeshore and areas exposed to the steady south
breeze. No other changes for the overnight forecast.

Original NEAR TERM Discussion...
Quiet weather pattern continues through Wednesday night as high
pressure remains over the region. Only change of significance to
the forecast regards high temperatures on Wednesday. Bumped up
highs a few degrees from previous forecast, and a bit warmer
than a consensus blend of raw guidance. Highs today have
overachieved guidances by a degree or two, and expect the trend
to continue tomorrow, especially with continued WAA, full sun
expected and 850mb-925mb temps a few degrees warmer than today.
Expect many areas to at least touch 70 degrees tomorrow. Kept
frost out of the forecast tonight, with outlying areas from
Marion to Mt. Vernon to Wooster possibly dipping into the upper
30s again tonight. However, winds should be up enough to
preclude any widespread frost formation.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will be located over the southern Appalachians on
Thursday as a weak cold front approaches Lake Erie from the
north. It appears the front will stall north of the lake. High
pressure then moves back into the area at the surface and aloft
by Friday and persists into Saturday.

Above normal temperatures will continue through the short term
period with highs into the 70s. the warmest day of the short term
will be Saturday with highs at many locations touching the middle
70`s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The long term will bring changes to the area, ending the stretch of
fair weather with a sweeping cold front early next week.  Strong jet
energy off of the Pacific Northwest will translate across the
country and dig a trough across the Great Lakes and northeast into
mid week.  The current cold front timing takes it across the local
area on Monday. Have increased precip chances above blended guidance
with a good tap of Gulf moisture, but timing may still be an issue.
Will likely see fluctuation in timing as there is some indication of
a split flow possibility. For temperatures took a blend of guidance
which takes us from lower 70s Sunday down to upper 50s/around 60 for
Tuesday. With the trough, cooler air, and flow off of the lake, have
precip chances continuing into Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/...
VFR conditions will continue with high pressure over the Ohio
Valley and nothing but a few patches of cirrus. South winds
will pick up with diurnal mixing during the day on Wednesday but
not as gusty as it was on Tuesday. Gusts on Wednesday generally
15-20 knots.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR possible in morning fog for inland locations
early Friday morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Southwesterly winds will remain in the 15 to 25 knot range into the
night with waves greater then 4 feet for the eastern half of the
lake. Water levels across the western basin continue to drop and are
very close to reaching levels that are low enough to impact
shipping. Will watch this very closely and issue a low water
statement if needed. Winds will decrease this evening into the
overnight so the water levels should rise shortly. Another weakening
cold front will sag toward the lake from central Ontario on Thursday
with the pressure gradient tightening. This will once again increase
the southwesterly winds with a small craft advisory possible for the
east half of the lake. High pressure increases its influence on
Friday with light winds expected.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Wednesday for LEZ145>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Greenawalt/Kosarik
NEAR TERM...Greenawalt/Kosarik
SHORT TERM...Mullen
LONG TERM...Oudeman
AVIATION...Kosarik
MARINE...Mullen


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