Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KCLE 202215
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
615 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE HURON WILL SLIDE TO NEAR BUFFALO BY TUESDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL TAKE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. THE
LOW WILL MOVE TO THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY...TRAPPED BY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE ALOFT ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE NATION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SITTING
ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES FOR MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
TWEAKED TIMING OF RAIN SHOWERS. ALSO REMOVED MENTION OF TSRA FOR
THIS EVENING.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS WITH A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER WILL MAKE THEIR WAY ACROSS
THE AREA THIS EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH A NEARING COLD FRONT. THE
LOW...MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...WILL MAKE IT TO
NEAR BUFFALO BY MORNING WITH THE COLD FRONT ACROSS NW PA AND INTO
EASTERN OHIO EXTENDING THE RAIN THROUGH THE NIGHT. WENT A BIT
WARMER THAN THE MOS GUIDANCE FOR LOW TEMPERATURES. EASTERN AREAS
WILL SPEND MOST OF THE NIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND THERE IS
NOT A BIG PUSH OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER TROUGH CLOSES OFF OVER PENNSYLVANIA OVER THE COURSE OF THE
DAY TUESDAY. A TROUGH WILL ROTATE AROUND THE LOW...SOUTH ACROSS
THE LAKE AND INTO NORTHERN OH/NW PA AND THIS WILL GENERATE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. THE FAR WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN
COUNTIES...TOL/FDY/MNN WILL BE ON THE FRINGES OF SHOWERS.
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE WITH ALL OF THE CLOUD COVER AND
SHOWERS. EXPECT 50 WILL BE THE BEST WE CAN DO UNDER THE
SHOWERS...LOWER 50S ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST.

THE LOW DRIFTS TO THE EAST COAST BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...AS THIS DOES SO OUR PRECIPITATION CHANCES DIMINISH AND
WILL BE RESTRICTED TO FAR EASTERN OH/NW PA. WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE WEST FAIR WEATHER WILL BE ON TAP FOR WESTERN OH ALONG WITH
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 50S. WHERE THE CLOUD
COVER REMAINS HAVE HELD TEMPERATURES A BIT WARMER THAN ACROSS THE
WEST WHERE BREAKS/PARTIAL CLEARING IS LIKELY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE LOCATED OFF OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
FRIDAY MORNING. THE LOW WILL SHIFT NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT
DAY WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. FRIDAY NIGHT THE MODELS ARE INDICATING A SMALL CLOSED
LOW/TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE THE MODELS AREN`T OVERLY
AGGRESSIVE WITH QPF...THERE APPEARS TO BE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF LIGHT RAIN OVERNIGHT. SATURDAY WILL BE DRIER AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING MOVES IN. THE LONGWAVE RIDGE AXIS WON`T CROSS THE AREA
MONDAY MORNING...SO OVERALL THE WEEKEND FORECAST LOOKS DRY WITH NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. MONDAY WILL BE MILD WITH TEMPERATURES
APPROACHING 70 IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT
AMONG THE MODELS THAT THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE LATE
MONDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
JUST LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA AT THE MOMENT. THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT IS STILL OVER INDIANA AND WILL TAKE A FEW MORE HOURS TO
REACH THE AREA. EXPECT THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THE PRECIP TO EXPAND
AS THE FRONT APPROACHES WITH PERHAPS A FEW HOURS OF SHOWERS IN THE
WEST AND A PROLONGED PERIOD IN THE EAST. A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES
SHOWING UP IN INDIANA BUT WILL NOT INCLUDE IN THE TAFS FOR NOW.
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY VFR THROUGH 00Z THEN WITH CIGS
DIPPING TO MVFR FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE EVENING. EXPECT CIGS
TO DIP TO IFR IN THE EAST OVERNIGHT WITH THE STEADIER PRECIP. S TO
SW FLOW WILL BECOME WESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT AND THEN NW TOWARD
MORNING AS COLD AIR FILTERS IN THE REGION.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR LINGERS INTO WEDNESDAY IN -SHRA MAINLY CLE TO CAK
EASTWARD.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHWEST FLOW HAS COME DOWN SLIGHTLY AND WILL HOLD OFF ON A SMALL
CRAFT FOR VERY MARGINAL CONDITIONS. BIGGER WAVES AND WINDS REMAIN IN
THE OFFSHORE WATERS.  A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LAKE TONIGHT
CAUSING THE FLOW TO BECOME WESTERLY.  SPEEDS SHOULD MAINLY BE UNDER
15 KNOTS BEHIND THE FRONT SO NO HEADLINES.  TOMORROW IS A DIFFERENT
STORY AS THE FLOW WILL BECOME NW AND INCREASE IN THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION.  WILL LIKELY NEED A SMALL CRAFT AT SOME POINT TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND PROBABLY FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FLOW BECOME N TO
NE.  NORTHERLY FLOW WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS.  BY THURSDAY THE FLOW WILL AGAIN BE NORTHWEST.  THE
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL THEN CONTINUE TILL THE SURFACE RIDGE CROSSES THE
LAKE SOMETIME FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...DJB/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...MAYERS
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...KUBINA





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.