Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 240911

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
411 AM EST Fri Feb 24 2017

A warm front draped across the area will lift north of Lake Erie
this morning. Low pressure approaching Chicago will track
northeast towards Lake Huron by Saturday morning. This system
will pull a strong cold front east across the area tonight. A
ridge will build overhead on Sunday then shift to the east coast
on Monday.


Warm front is draped across the forecast area early this morning
south of a line from Findlay to Cleveland to Ashtabula. A few
showers and thunderstorm ongoing early this morning as the elevated
warm front is lifting to the north. These should be focused across
Lake Erie and into Canada by 9 AM with dry conditions until late

Surface warm front expected to push north across Lake Erie this
morning leaving the forecast area in the warm sector. Southerly
winds will be windy today with a 40 knot low level jet overhead.
Generally expecting winds of 15-20 mph with gusts around 30-35 mph.
Most areas will start off cloudy this morning but a dry wedge of air
near 850mb will nose in from the southwest and scatter out the low
clouds. Cu field expected to thicken in the west towards late
afternoon but not before most if not all climate locations have
broken records for the day and possibly the month of February (see
February records below). Forecast highs are close to MET guidance
which has been out-performing the MAV for several days in this warm
pattern. GFS continues to hold onto cloudy conditions today and that
is not anticipated given the favorable low level mixing and very dry
air aloft. A cap will be in place aloft and is expected to hold
until this evening. Will introduce a low pop by around 4 PM for the
Toledo area which may get clipped by a leading storm or two before
the more widespread activity arrives closer to 7 or 8 PM.

All time record high temperatures for the month of February:

Locations   February Record     Date
Cleveland               74    2/26/2000
Toledo                  71    2/26/2000, 2/11/1999, and 2/26/1944
Mansfield               71    2/26/2000, 2/26/1944
Akron-Canton            72    2/26/2000
Youngstown              73    2/26/2000
Erie 75    2/26/2000


Ingredients still coming together to suggest severe thunderstorms
are possible this evening. Main focus remains across the western
portion of the forecast area where the Storm Prediction Center has
highlighted an Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms. Low pressure
over Illinois will move northeast across southern lower Michigan
this evening. This will occur in advance of considerable height
falls aloft associated with a neutrally oriented upper level trough
that takes on a slightly negative tilt by morning as it curls
towards Lake Michigan. We will be monitoring upstream radar and
satellite trends across Indiana this afternoon for signs of
convective initiation with the expectation for the atmosphere
to remain capped above 850mb until late afternoon. Elevated
mixed layer advects in from the west and convection is not
expected to develop until late afternoon when forcing ramps up
as an 85 knot jet at 500mb lifts northeast across Indiana into
Michigan. A few discrete cells appear likely across northwest
Ohio with fast storm motion towards Lake Erie at around 50 mph.
These discrete cells will need to be monitored for rotation and
will also contain a wind and hail threat. ML CAPE are forecast
to be in the 500-1000 J/kg range this evening but there is some
concern that dewpoints will start off a little lower than
expected given the strong mixing this afternoon. Available CAPE
is then forecast to drop off considerably between 03-06Z. Storm
motion will transition to more of a broken line east of the
I-75 corridor late this evening. At this point storm mode will
favor strong damaging winds with marginally severe hail. Not
sure how fast the boundary layer will stabilize given the warm
southerly winds but do expect a downward trend in intensity
towards midnight and into the overnight hours. Severe storms
will remain possible beyond that time as any of the stronger
cells may have downdrafts capable of punching through whatever
shallow stable layer that tries to develop. This will largely
depend on the strength of the convection at that point.
Instability and time of arrival will be the limiting factors as
we head into tonight.

Showers will linger in Pennsylvania into Saturday morning
before departing to the east. Strong cold advection will bring
falling temperatures during the day on Saturday. This will be
accompanied by another windy day with southwest winds gusting to
30-35 mph again. Airmass dries out on Saturday with just a few
showers focused across NE Ohio/NW PA. Whatever lingering
precipitation will transition to snow by Saturday night with
some lake effect developing off Lake Erie Saturday night. Have
included some minor accumulations for the higher areas of NW PA.
Moisture depth decreases into Sunday morning with the flow
starting to back as a ridge build in. Accumulating snow should
come to an end during the morning.


The main upper trough is still on track to shift from the rockies
into the lakes during the period. This will induce a deepening
surface low to move from kansas monday night ne across michigan
early wed pulling an arctic cold front across the region. A clipper
low is shown to drop ese near lake erie thu eve. Will stay with
superblend chc pops into tue increasing to likely or better for tue
night into wed with the cold front and upper trough then backing
down to mostly chc pops for wed night and thu with emphasis on
snowbelt for lake enhanced shsn.

Temps should warm enough so a lot of the precip should change from
snow to rain by mon afternoon with a mixture possible in the north
mon night then even warmer temps for tue should mean just rain from
late morning on until wed eve when enough colder air looks to arrive
to start changing the precip to snow.


.AVIATION /06Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/...
Frontal boundary currently draped from west to east across
northern Ohio and NW PA will lift northward through the first
half of the TAF period. Scattered showers will accompany this
boundary, with potential MVFR ceiling reductions. Best chance
for MVFR will be at KTOL early in the period with the boundary
south of the terminal. Shower chances will diminish after 10Z-
12Z time frame with gradual clearing across the region. Gusty
southerly winds expected, especially from KMFD to KCLE and
westward. Strong cold front will push east through the region
after 00Z Saturday. Showers and thunderstorms are anticipated,
possibly impacting western terminals as early as 03Z and KCLE
after 06Z.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR across mainly the snowbelt by later Saturday
into Sunday. Areas on non-vfr Monday.


The warm air moving out over the cold lake should keep winds and
waves below sca criteria until sat when the colder air arrives with
winds turning from sw to more west and increasing to 20 to 30 knots.
High pressure moves up the oh valley sat night and sun which will
diminish the winds some and cause a backing to sw. Winds will
diminish further on monday and back to sse for tue.




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