Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 262325
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
725 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT MOVING INTO CENTRAL OHIO AND SOUTHWEST PA WILL REACH
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO
THE AREA FROM CENTRAL CANADA ON WEDNESDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE
NORTHWARD ACROSS OHIO WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS EASTWARD ALONG IT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE...ADJUSTED SKY COVER BASED ON SATELLITE. DECREASING CLOUD
TRENDS STILL INTACT. NO OTHER BIG CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

ORIGINAL...COLD FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE ENTIRE COUNTY WARNING
AREA BY 20Z. THIS SHOULD KEEP ALL OF THE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OHIO. DID STILL KEEP A SLIGHT
CHANCE MENTION IN THE GRIDS FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS. OTHERWISE ALL
LOCATIONS WILL BE DRY TONIGHT. CLOUD COVER WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR
OVERNIGHT. THIS IS A GOOD THING SINCE IT WILL TRAP SOME WARMTH
NEAR THE SURFACE AND PROTECT THE REGION FROM A WIDESPREAD FROST.
IT WILL BE COOLER TONIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S
ACROSS INLAND NW PA TO THE LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE AREA FROM CENTRAL CANADA ON
WEDNESDAY KEEPING A COOL NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO AND
NW PA. LOCATIONS NEAR THE LAKESHORE WILL LIKELY ONLY SEE HIGHS
AROUND 50 BUT INLAND LOCATIONS WILL BE WARMED INTO THE LOWER 60S.
THE MOST SUNSHINE WILL OCCUR IN THE MORNING HOURS WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY. A WARM FRONT
WILL LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS OHIO WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL
SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTY WARNING AREA ON THURSDAY WITH
A COUPLE RIPPLES OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING EASTWARD ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. THE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION IS UNCERTAIN SO HAVE
ONLY GONE WITH AN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDER MENTION.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM LOOK TO BE NEAR SEASONAL
AVERAGES. JUST REMEMBER THAT WITH THE LONG PERIOD OF NORTHEAST
WINDS ACROSS LAKE ERIE IT WILL BE MUCH COOLER NEAR THE WATER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA SATURDAY...THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND IS SHAPING UP TO BE A WET ONE.  SHOWERS SHOULD SPREAD NE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY.   ALTHOUGH TRACK AND TIMING DIFFER
SOMEWHAT...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF NOW TRACK A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.  THEN TRACK THE
LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON. SO SHOWERS
SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
SLOWLY BUILDS OVER THE AREA AGAIN ON TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. SHOULD
SEE IMPROVEMENT ALL AREAS DURING THE MORNING HOURS CENTRAL AND
WESTERN AREAS. EVENTUALLY...NEXT ROUND OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON TOMORROW. WINDS
WILL PREVAIL MAINLY NORTHEAST AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND
AROUND 10 KNOTS TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK...NON-VFR LATE WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI...AND PROBABLY AGAIN
SAT NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FRONT IS NOW SOUTH OF THE LAKE AND WINDS HAVE TURNED TO THE
NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.   MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT KEEPING
CONDITIONS JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.   SMALL CRAFT
POSSIBLY NEEDED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS A LOW TRACKS
ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY/LOWER GREAT LAKES AND NE FLOW INCREASED
TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS.   CHOPPY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
AS NE FLOW CONTINUES WELL INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...TK/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...DJB



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