Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 040251
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
951 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
COLDER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHEAST ACROSS QUEBEC. A RIDGE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD
FROM LATE THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF
THE LAKES ON SATURDAY WITH A WEAKENING COLD FRONT SINKING SOUTH
INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
THE CLOUDS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME MAKING IT TO THE I-71 CORRIDOR
AND EAST. AT SOME POINT THE CLOUDS WILL JUMP EAST SO WILL TAKE
SKIES TO OVERCAST ALL AREAS OVERNIGHT. HAVE BACKED OFF ON SNOW
CHANCES OVERNIGHT FROM THE EARLIER PACKAGE. GIVEN THE SLOWER THAN
EXPECTED ARRIVAL OF THE CLOUDS IT`S GOING TO TAKE A WHILE BEFORE
ANY LAKE EFFECT GETS GOING. WILL STICK WITH CHANCE POPS TOWARD
DAYBREAK BUT THAT IS IT. HAVE ALSO NUDGED TEMPS DOWN A LITTLE FROM
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AS THE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE EAST HAVE
ALLOWED TEMPS TO DROP FASTER THAN EXPECTED. EVEN IN THE WEST TEMPS
ARE COOLER THAN FORECAST SO HAVE NUDGED THINGS DOWN THERE AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY WILL FEEL LIKE AN ABRUPT RETURN TO WINTER WITH TEMPERATURES
THAT ARE 20-25 DEGREES COOLER THAN WEDNESDAY. CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
LINGER ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THURSDAY MORNING WITH A
RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE INCOMING
AIRMASS IS ONLY MARGINALLY COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS BUT CONVERGENCE ALONG THE LAKESHORE SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH
LIFT FOR SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ON THURSDAY. MOISTURE DEPTH IS ALSO
BARELY SUFFICIENT FOR SNOW BUT SUSPECT THAT WILL BE THE PRIMARY
PRECIP TYPE. LOCALIZED ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SNOW BELT
ON THURSDAY...SHIFTING NORTH UP THE LAKESHORE ON THURSDAY NIGHT.
EXPECTING ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS TO BE OUT OVER THE LAKE BY
FRIDAY MORNING.

THE RIDGE WILL BE OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY THEN SINK SOUTH ON SATURDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE PASSES NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT SINKS SOUTH INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.
FEW CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH JUST A LOW CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS
IN EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE SNOW BELT SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHS ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL SNEAK BACK UP INTO THE 35-40 DEGREE RANGE
ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THERE MAY BE A LEFTOVER SNOW OR RAIN SHOWER IN THE SNOWBELT SUN
MORNING THEN HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD TAKE OVER TO PROVIDE DRY
CONDITIONS UNTIL THE NEXT SYSTEM STARTS TO AFFECT THE WEST BY LATE
SUN NIGHT FOR THE NEXT CHC FOR SNOW. THE MODELS DIFFER ON THE
STRENGTH AND EASTWARD SPEED OF THE LOW MON INTO TUE SO WON`T FIGHT
THE SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE. COLDER AIR SHOULD SPREAD OVER THE AREA
TUE THRU WED AS A SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROUGH SETS UP OVER THE AREA
AS THE PATTERN STARTS TO CHANGE TO LOOK MORE LIKE LAST FEBRUARY
WITH THE POLAR VORTEX TRYING TO SET UP NEAR JAMES BAY. THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL HELP A BATCH OR ARCTIC AIR TO SPILL DOWN INTO THE
REGION. THIS SHOULD MEAN FAIRLY WIDESPREAD LIGHT SYNOPTIC SNOW
TRANSITIONS TO MAINLY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS BY WED.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD AIR CONTINUES TO SPILL INTO THE REGION. MVFR CLOUDS ARE
MOVING IN WITH THE COOLER AND AND HAVE ALREADY SPREAD INTO NW
OHIO. THE MVFR CEILINGS WILL SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING.
THERE COULD E A FEW SPRINKLES/FLURRIES AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT FOR THE
MOST PART IT APPEARS THAT IT WILL BE DRY. AS THE COLDER AIR SPILLS
ACROSS THE LAKE THURSDAY MORNING THERE COULD BE SOME SNOW SHOWERS
FOR NE OH/NW PA.

SW TO WEST WINDS WILL BE GUSTY THIS EVENING BUT SHOULD DECREASE
OVERNIGHT. GUSTS SHOULD BE 25 KNOTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT FOR NE OHIO AND NW
PA IN SNOW SHOWERS. ANOTHER PERIOD OF NON VFR WILL BE POSSIBLE
FRI NIGHT AND AGAIN SAT NIGHT AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM PASSES.

&&

.MARINE...
WSW WINDS OF 15 TO 30 KNOTS SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATER
TONIGHT INTO THU TO ABOUT 10 TO 20 KNOTS THEN GENERALLY STAY IN
THIS RANGE WHILE WAVERING BETWEEN S AND WEST AS WEAK FRONTS PUSH
ACROSS THE LAKE THRU SAT. THINK A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH
ACROSS THE LAKE SUN AND TURN WINDS TO THE NE. A LOW IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO THE LAKES MON TO VEER THE WINDS TO SE BY LATE MON.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...MULLEN
MARINE...ADAMS


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