Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 011730
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
130 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHEAST FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST ON TRACK AND NOT CHANGES WITH THIS MIDDAY UPDATE. AN
UPPER LOW OVER INDIANA WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST TOWARD SOUTHERN
OHIO LATER TODAY. THIS FEATURE WAS ACTIVE ON MONDAY AND CONTINUES
TO BE SO WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UNDERNEATH IT. EXPECT
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN END OF THE AREA. A LAKE
BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN MOVE INLAND.
A FEW MORE STORMS COULD POP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. WILL GO WITH A
SMALL 20 POP MOST OF THE AREA ALTHOUGH COVERAGE WILL BE MORE IN
THE 5 TO 10 PERCENT RANGE. 850 MB TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY AND SEE NO REASON WHY HIGH TEMPS WILL BE MORE
THAN A DEGREE OR TWO FROM WHAT THEY WERE MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THE ENTIRE
PERIOD. EXPECT ANY LINGERING PRECIP TO DIE OUT AFTER SUNSET. THE
NEW 00Z MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LOW PASSING JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA TOMORROW MORNING. ALTHOUGH MORE PRECIP COULD DEVELOP AS THIS
FEATURE MOVES THROUGH...BETTER CHANCES WILL LIKELY OCCUR LATER IN
THE AFTERNOON WITH THE HEATING OF THE DAY. THERE WILL BE NO GOOD
LIFTING MECHANISM AT THE SURFACE SO TRYING TO FIGURE WHERE THE
PRECIP WILL BE IS A CHALLENGE AGAIN TODAY. DO THINK THE COVERAGE
WILL BE A LITTLE GREATER THAN TODAY WITH BEST CHANCES AGAIN ACROSS
INLAND AREAS. SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL OCCUR ON
THURSDAY AS A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THIS
FEATURE SHOULD PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH LIFT TO INITIATE SOME SCATTERED
STORMS. WILL GO WITH A 30 POP FOR NOW WHICH SHOULD BE MORE THAN
ENOUGH. GIVEN THE WEAK SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND MOIST ATMOSPHERE...ANY
STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP COULD BE SLOW MOVERS AND HEAVY RAINER`S.
BY FRIDAY A SURFACE RIDGE FROM THE HIGH CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND
WILL BE BACK IN CONTROL. SLIGHTLY LOWER DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED AND
THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE PRECIP THREAT.

LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES ALOFT IS EXPECTED THIS WEEK SO
PERSISTENCE WILL BE THE WAY TO GO FOR TEMPS. EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS
TO TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S FOR HIGHS EACH DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUMMER HAS FINALLY ARRIVED IN THE TEMPERATURE DEPARTMENT EVEN THOUGH
WE ARE INTO THE MONTH OF SEPTEMBER.  THE MONTH OF SEPTEMBER BEGINS
WHAT IS KNOWN AS THE METEOROLOGICAL FALL.

LATEST UPPER AIR PROGS INDICATE LARGE AMPLIFIED RIDGE WILL REMAIN
PERSISTENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A DIGGING TROUGH SETS UP
OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE UNITED STATES WILL KEEP THE FORECAST AREA UNDER
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD
AND EVENTUALLY SETS UP A CONVEYOR BELT OF WARM TROPICAL AIR INTO THE
FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
WARM TROPICAL AIR IN PLACE WILL HELP TO DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE
AND I CAN EXPECT SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
IN THE LATTER HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. OTHERWISE...DOMINATING
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP THINGS DRY THROUGH MUCH OF THE EARLY PART
OF THE EXTENDED PERIODS.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH WILL PRODUCE SOME SUBSIDENCE AND
PRODUCE SOME WARM TO QUITE WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WITH HIGH DEW POINTS IN PLACE...EXPECTING MUGGY CONDITIONS AS WELL.
BUMPED MAX AND MIN TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES DUE TO THE WARM AIR
MASS EXPECTED. LAKE SHORE AREAS WILL BE A TAD COOLER THAN INLAND AS
LAKE BREEZES DEVELOP.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PERSISTING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE APPALACHIANS
CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN WEATHER INFLUENCE OVER THE AREA. DIURNAL CU
HAS DEVELOPED AND WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THIS EVENING. A SMALL
UPPER LEVEL LOW HAS SPARKED SOME THUNDERSTORMS IN IL/IN AND MAY
TRIGGER A VERY ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM NEAR THE WESTERN TAF SITES
BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW SO NO MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

THE MOIST AIRMASS THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS
WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE A LIKELY CHANCE FOR FOG TO DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT. ONCE AGAIN...DEW POINTS THIS AFTERNOON ARE IN THE UPPER
60S TO 70 AND SUBSIDENCE WITH THE PREVAILING HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD
ALLOW FOR THE ATMOSPHERE TO DECOUPLE AND FOR A LOW-LEVEL INVERSION
TO FORM. THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR MVFR FOG TO DEVELOP AT ALL SITES
EXCEPT ERI. FOLLOWING THE TREND FROM THE LAST TWO MORNINGS...PATCHY
IFR FOG IS POSSIBLE AT TOL AND FDY AS THERE IS MORE MOISTURE AT THE
WESTERN TAF SITES.

OUTLOOK...AREAS OF NON VFR IN MORNING FOG AND HAZE. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WILL KEEP WINDS ON THE LIGHT SIDE. THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY THAT WINDS COULD INCREASE TO AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS OVER
THE LAKE ON FRIDAY BUT WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH BY SATURDAY MORNING AND
RETURN TO LIGHT NORTHEAST. I AM NOT EXPECTING ANY SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KUBINA/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...KOSARIK/SEFCOVIC
MARINE...LOMBARDY


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