Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 221719
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
119 PM EDT MON AUG 22 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will expand eastward over the area today then move off
the east coast on Wednesday. Moisture will increase ahead of low
pressure tracking out of the plains across the Great Lakes from
Wednesday into Thursday. The associated cold front will push south
across the area on Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A few showers continue across inland areas east of I71 this
morning. Also a few showers over the lake where there is a couple
swaths of convergence. The area of convergence and showers should
dissipate as the a weak lake breeze circulation begins to set up.

Otherwise only minor changes have been made to the forecast.

Previous discussion...
A cooler airmass has settled over the region with 850mb
temperatures down to 8C over Lake Erie. A few stray showers
continue to develop where there is better moisture and a little
bit of low level convergence off the east end of the lake. Will
carry a low 20-30 pop for NE OH/NW PA for the early morning hours
before subsidence really increases over the lake after 15Z. The cu
field is expected to thicken across the east this morning but very
dry air aloft and building high pressure will result in skies
becoming mostly sunny all areas by mid-afternoon. Went near or
just below the warmer MET guidance for highs today.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure at the surface will slowly build towards the east
coast through Wednesday. Meanwhile the ridge will build aloft with
temperatures trending warmer through mid-week. Humidity will be low
on Tuesday then start to increase in the west on Wednesday as
southerly flow and dewpoints increase ahead of an approaching
trough. A surge of high theta-e air spreads in from the west as a
leading piece of shortwave energy slides across lower Michigan
towards Lake erie Wednesday afternoon and evening. Increased pops a
little bit more on Wednesday night as models have trended slightly
faster with this feature. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to
increase on Thursday as the surface trough makes slow progress east
across the area in conjunction with another round of shortwave
energy moving through the flow aloft. Scattered to numerous showers
and thunderstorms can be expected during the day on Thursday with
precipitable water values up around 2 inches. The moisture axis will
tend to shift south on Thursday night with precipitation chances
decreasing, especially in the north.

High temperatures will rebound to the mid 80s on Wednesday.
Temperatures on Thursday are a little more tricky and will be tied
to coverage of clouds and showers. Expecting mostly cloudy
conditions so temperatures will tend to be near or below Wednesday`s
values.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Large eastern United states upper level high pressure will dominate
the local area through the forecast period. A surface cold front is
progged to move southeast of the area Friday night as surface high
pressure begins to build into the local area. As the flow develops
again for the possibility of lake effect rain showers/thunderstorms,
we could see another round of waterspouts on Friday. Will add a
mention of showers and thunderstorms over the east and keep the rest
of the area dry. The high pressure will gradually shift east to
Maine by Sunday night. Yet another cold front is progged to move
east across the area on Monday and could bring with it another
chance for showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures through the
forecast period will cool down slightly over the weekend as weak
cold air advection returns.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Monday THROUGH Saturday/...
VFR condtions will continue through the forecast period as high
pressure will remain over the Lower Lakes. N-NW flow off the lake
will turn to the south after sunset.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR possible for inland locations through Thursday
mornings in BR/fog.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds on the lake continue to diminish this morning and therefore
will end the threat for the small craft advisory and beach hazards.
Wind on the lake are expected to remain 10 knots or less through
Tuesday night.  However, southwest flow will develop and strengthen
slightly in the western basin by Wednesday evening and then spread
over the entire lake Wednesday night with winds 15 to 20 knots
sustained. The flow gradually shifts around to a westerly direction
at 10 to 20 knots by Thursday night and then northwest on Friday.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC/Mullen
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...Lombardy
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...Lombardy



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