Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 190552
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
152 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN OHIO WILL MOVE EAST TO THE VIRGINIA
COAST BY TUESDAY MORNING. A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO
WILL BE DRAWN SOUTH IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW. ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT AND EXPAND ACROSS THE
CENTRAL LAKES TUESDAY BRINGING THE FRONT BACK NORTH INTO THE AREA
AS A WARM FRONT. THE LOW WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
OVERNIGHT WE ARE EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS. NOT SURE WHY HRRR KEEPS
ON AND OFF LIGHT SHRA/SPRINKLES OVER THE EAST THRU THE NIGHT. THIS
AREA IS WHERE THE MODELS HAVE THE DRIEST AIR SO IT DOES NOT SEEM TO
MAKE SENSE...UNLESS ITS TRYING TO INDICATE MID LEVEL ATTEMPTS AT
PRECIP/VIRGA.

MORE CLOUDS ON THE WAY FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LOW MOVING INTO THE WESTERN LAKES. EXPECTING THOSE AFTER MIDNIGHT IN
THE WEST ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM
TOWARD DAYBREAK. LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER 60S WITH A FEW UPPER
50S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE SOUTHERN OHIO LOW WILL HAVE REACHED THE VIRGINIA COAST BY
MORNING WITH THE NEXT LOW MOVING INTO/ THROUGH THE WESTERN LAKES.
THIS LOW WILL DOMINATE THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS IT ROTATES THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. ALSO THE FRONT TO OUR
SOUTH WILL BEGIN MOVING NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT AS THE LOW
APPROACHES AND BY MORNING IT SHOULD EXTEND FROM NEAR CHICAGO TO
CINCINNATI. FOLLOWED THE SREF FOR PRECIP TIMING TUESDAY WHICH
BRINGS CHANCE POPS INTO THE WEST DURING THE MORNING...INCREASING
TO LIKELY BY MID DAY AS THE REST OF THE AREA INCREASES TO CHANCE
POPS. BY EARLY EVENING SPREAD THE LIKELY POPS FURTHER EAST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL COUNTIES...EVENTUALLY EXPANDING ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF THE EAST LATE EVENING TO OVERNIGHT. WEDNESDAY MORNING THE UPPER
LOW WILL REMAIN STUCK OVER NRN MI WITH CONTINUED DIVERGENCE ACROSS
NRN OHIO/NWRN PA. AXIS OF DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL BE NEGATIVELY
TILTED FROM THE WESTERN LAKES TO PA AND NY. WILL KEEP HIGHEST POPS
ACROSS NERN OHIO AND NWRN PA WITH DECREASING CHANCES WEST. THE LOW
WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE TO PA/NY THURSDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS
BUILDS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. STILL WILL LIKELY SEE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY GIVEN THE CONTINUED MOISTURE AND
DAYTIME HEATING SO WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS. TEMPS NEAR
NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST ON FRIDAY WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SLOWLY EXPANDING EASTWARD
OVER THE WEEKEND. FRIDAY LOOKS LIKE A TRANSITION DAY AND COULD BE
ACTIVE WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS ENERGY RIDES AROUND THE
BUILDING RIDGE. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS TRY TO BUILD A STRONG RIDGE
OVER THE GREAT LAKES THIS WEEKEND AND EXTENDING NORTHEAST INTO
QUEBEC. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO DECREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS MID LEVELS WARM AND WARM
FRONT SHIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA. MODELS DO INDICATE SOME LINGERING
MOISTURE AND SOMEWHAT OF A BOUNDARY IN PLACE THOUGH SO WILL HOLD
ONTO LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN ALL BUT THE EAST
WHERE A DRIER EASTERLY FLOW ON THE PERIPHERY OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
EAST SHOULD LIKELY MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS.  STILL EXPECT A WARMING
TREND OVER THE WEEKEND BUT HAVE BACKED OFF A FEW DEGREES FOR NOW
WITH UNCERTAINTY IN CLOUD COVER.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECAST THIS MORNING ALL HINGES ON TIMING OF THE THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER WISCONSIN. POTENTIAL EXISTS THAT
THE BULK OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL SCOOT EAST ACROSS
MICHIGAN INTO ONTARIO. SOME INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
NORTHERN OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA AND THIS COULD HELP SOME
OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP FURTHER SOUTH. WILL
CONTINUE WITH CURRENT FORECAST OF TIMING PRECIPITATION INTO THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM THE COMPLEX.
WILL ALSO KEEP A MENTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR TONIGHT
AS WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE MOVE EAST INTO
THE REGION.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE ERIE IS LOCATED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND A WEAK
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS
HAVE INCREASED TO AROUND 15 KNOTS OR SO ALONG MUCH OF THE SOUTH
SHORE OF THE LAKE...WITH WAVES OF 1 TO 3 FEET. THE HIGH WILL BUILD
TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT AND WINDS WILL DECREASE AS THE GRADIENT
RELAXES...SHIFTING TO EASTERLY AND THEN SOUTHEAST LATE.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON
TUESDAY THEN MOVE ACROSS LAKE ERIE ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING UNSETTLED
WEATHER. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN 15 KNOTS OR LESS AS THEY SHIFT
AROUND TO THE WEST BEHIND THIS SYSTEM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN ON
THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY A SLOW MOVING WARM FRONT THAT WILL LIFT NORTH
ACROSS THE LAKE OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...ADAMS/TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...KEC





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