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000
FXUS61 KCLE 161046
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
646 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL BUILD TO NEW ENGLAND BY TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK OUT OF THE PLAINS TOWARDS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
ON THURSDAY AND PULL A WARM FRONT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. ANOTHER
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FLURRIES HAVE ENDED AND SKIES HAVE CLEARED ALL AREAS. TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO FALL EARLY THIS MORNING BENEATH THE BUILDING HIGH WITH
NEARLY CALM WINDS. AS OF 6 AM...IT LOOKS LIKE YNG HAS DIPPED TO 20
DEGREES WHICH BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 21 DEGREES FROM 1980. TOL
IS ALSO 20 DEGREES WHICH TIES THE PREVIOUS RECORD DATING ALL THE
WAY BACK TO 1875. STAY TUNED FOR THE OFFICIAL RECORD REPORT TO SEE
IF TEMPERATURES DIP ANY COOLER YET THIS MORNING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL BUILD TOWARDS
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY THIS AFTERNOON...THEN CONTINUE TO NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT. A LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND WILL DEVELOP
TODAY...EXCEPT NEAR LAKE ERIE WHERE WINDS WILL BE MORE
NORTHEASTERLY OFF THE LAKE. LOWERED HIGHS NEAR THE LAKE AS HIGHS
ARE REACHED BY MIDDAY BEFORE THE NORTHEAST WIND DEVELOPS.
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM UPPER 30S TOWARDS ERIE PA TO UPPER
40S TOWARDS CENTRAL OHIO. OTHERWISE WE WILL SEE SOME CIRRUS
SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON SO WILL CARRY SKIES
BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY IN NORTHWEST OHIO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5-10 DEGREES WARMER TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE
HIGH DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS INCREASE TO
AROUND 10 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO LOW
30S.

LOW PRESSURE NEAR SIOUX FALLS SD THIS MORNING WILL TRACK TOWARDS
UPPER MICHIGAN ON THURSDAY WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW OUT AHEAD
OF IT. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN GOOD WARM ADVECTION ON THURSDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES RECOVERING TO NEAR 60 DEGREES IN NRN OHIO...UPPER 50S
IN NW PA. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY TO PARTLY SUNNY AGAIN WITH ONLY SOME
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND...MAINLY NW OHIO.

A TROUGH ADVANCES EASTWARD TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. MODELS SHOWING A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE SLIDING NORTHEAST
ACROSS OHIO IN ADVANCE OF THE TROUGH. THE ECMWF/GEM/UKMET ARE PRETTY
LEAN ON MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM ALONG WITH BEING WEAKER WITH THE
APPROACHING TROUGH/COLD FRONT WHILE THE NAM/GFS ALLOW FOR A LITTLE
BETTER MOISTURE RETURN AND STRONGER COLD PUSH. SOUNDINGS FROM THE
LATTER SHOW SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR SOME SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ON
FRIDAY SO HELD ONTO THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALREADY IN THE FORECAST.
NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN EITHER CAMP TO MAKE A DEFINITIVE CHOICE
WITH RESPECT TO PRECIP/TEMPERATURES SO WENT WITH A BLENDED
APPROACH IN LINE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT ON SATURDAY
WITH A DRY START TO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5-10 DEGREES
COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY WITH SKIES CLEARING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM BEGINS ON SUNDAY WITH MODELS ALREADY EXHIBITING A FAIR
AMOUNT OF DISAGREEMENT.  WILL USE A MIX OF ECMWF GFS MOS AND HPC
GRAPHICS THROUGH THE PERIOD. BASICALLY THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP
WILL LIKELY BE ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND AN UPPER SHORT WAVE TROF MOVES INTO
THE AREA FROM THE WEST. AIRMASS DRIES OUT AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN THE AREA. TEMPS LARGELY SEASONAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY STABLE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NRN OHIO
AND NWRN PA THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR MAY DEVELOP FRIDAY AND PERSIST INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL FALL AT 3AM AS WINDS/WAVES DECREASE ON THE
LAKE. FLOW TO REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT AND 15 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH
FRIDAY.  SATURDAY EXPECTING 15 TO 20 KNOTS IN NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND
A COLD FRONT. THIS WILL LIKELY PUSH WAVES TO 4 FEET OR SLIGHTLY MORE
WHICH MAY NECESSITATE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY.  OTHERWISE NO
HEADLINES EXPECTED.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...TK