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000
FXUS61 KCLE 060930
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
430 AM EST FRI DEC 6 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THROUGH VIRGINIA TODAY.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS FRIDAY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES FROM SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A LOW WILL MOVE OUT OF THE GULF AND
MOVE NORTH ACROSS OHIO SUNDAY NIGHT PULLING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION EARLY MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A REINFORCING ARCTIC COLD FRONT
MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT INTO THIS EVENING WITH
THE BULK OF THE SNOW YET TO COME.

A BAND OF PRECIPITATION ALONG THE 925-850MB FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR
ASHTABULA SOUTHWEST TOWARDS ST LOUIS. THIS AXIS OF PRECIPITATION AND
THE VERY DRY AIR BEHIND IT (AS SEEN ON THE 00Z DTX SOUNDING) IS
EXPECTED TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
BREAK IN THE SNOW FOR AREAS FROM FINDLAY TO CLEVELAND WHILE SNOW
LINGERS FOR THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF OUR CWA FROM MOUNT VERNON TO
YOUNGSTOWN. THE SOUTHEASTWARD SHIFT IN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE MEANS
THAT PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW FOR ALL OF OUR AREA
WITHING THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS AND STAY THAT WAY THROUGH THE DURATION
OF THE EVENT.

LOW PRESSURE WILL BECOME MORE CONSOLIDATED OVER WESTERN
VIRGINIA/NORTH CAROLINA TODAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH CURLS NORTHEAST
TOWARDS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A BAND OF PRECIPITATION WILL
INTENSIFY ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AS THE WAVE LIFTS NORTH...WITH SNOW
SPREADING BACK NORTH INTO OUR AREA TOWARDS MID-AFTERNOON. CURRENT
MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST FRONTOGENESIS AND MOISTURE WILL BE MAXIMIZED
JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT
MODELS ARE SETTING THIS BOUNDARY UP JUST A TOUCH TO FAR SOUTH AND
THAT ENTRANCE REGION JET DYNAMICS ALOFT MAY PULL THIS BAND SLIGHTLY
FURTHER NORTH. NAM/GFS GENERALLY IN AGREEMENT SHOWING .50-.70 QPF
ACROSS OUR EXTREME SE TIER OF COUNTIES WHILE THE ECMWF IS A TENTH OR
TWO LOWER. PERHAPS THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS ARE HANDLING THE
BANDING BETTER WITH A SWATH OF 4 TO 7 INCHES IN OUR SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES. THIS IS BORDERLINE FOR WARNING CRITERIA AND SOME AREAS MAY
NEED TO BE UPGRADED. THIS WILL OCCUR IN ABOUT A 6 HOUR WINDOW WITH
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL. ACCUMULATIONS WILL DECREASE AS YOU MOVE NORTH
TOWARDS CLEVELAND WITH LITTLE OR NO SNOW TOWARDS TOLEDO. THE FURTHER
NORTH YOU GO...LIFT WILL NOT BE AS FAVORABLE AND NEITHER WILL
MOISTURE OR THERMODYNAMICS IN THE COLUMN. LAKESHORE AREAS ARE MORE
LIKELY TO SEE TOTALS IN THE 1-3 INCH RANGE...ARCHING WESTWARD
TOWARDS FINDLAY. WE WILL HAVE TO CLOSELY MONITOR TRENDS THIS MORNING
AND MAY NEED TO UPGRADE A FEW COUNTIES (BEST CHANCES ARE
KNOX...HOLMES...STARK) TO A WARNING IF MODELS AND OBSERVATIONAL
TRENDS SUPPORT A SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST. SNOW SHOULD BE MOST
INTENSE  BETWEEN 3 AND 10 PM TODAY BEFORE QUICKLY PULLING AWAY TO
THE EAST OVERNIGHT AS MID-LEVEL MOISTURE STRIPS AWAY.

THERE WILL BE LITTLE IF ANY LAKE EFFECT WITH THIS SYSTEM AS A
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE LAKE AND DRY AIR WORKS INTO THE LOW
LEVELS. WILL CARRY A LOW POP IN THE SNOW BELT THROUGH DAWN.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO NEAR 20 DEGREES OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY AND BE
OVERHEAD SATURDAY NIGHT. DESPITE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES...HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE MID 20S. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE
CHILLY WITH A FRESH SNOWPACK IN SOME AREAS AND GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING. LOWERED MINS A COUPLE MORE DEGREES FOR INLAND AREAS TO NEAR
10 DEGREES IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE STILL IS ON TRACK TO DEVELOP OVER THE TENNESSEE RIVER
VALLEY ON SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL PULL THE LOW OVER THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY
QUICKLY NORTHWARD SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. UNCERTAINTY AT THIS
TIME IS WHETHER THE LOW OVER THE WESTERN LAKES AND THE LOW FROM THE
SOUTH WILL MERGE OVER THE REGION AND DEEPEN. MODELS ARE BACKING OFF
ON THE DEEPENING OVER OHIO SOLUTION WITH THE LATEST MODEL RUNS. THIS
COULD ALLOW LESS WARM AIR INTO THE REGION KEEPING MORE OF THE REGION
WITH SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WANT TO SEE ANOTHER RUN OR TWO
OF THIS SCENARIO BEFORE MAKING SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE MIXED
PRECIPITATION IDEA FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS. IN ANY EVENT SNOW WILL
BEGIN BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND ATTEMPT TO BECOME A WINTRY MIX FOR THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT ON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT
SHOULD PUSH ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY MORNING WITH HIGHS OCCURRING
EARLY IN THE DAY.

ARCTIC AIR WILL THEN BEGIN TO SPILL INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND
REMAIN INTO THURSDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL HELP TO ENHANCE THE
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ON TUESDAY. THE COLDEST AIR WILL ARRIVE IN THE WAKE
OF THIS TROUGH WITH A SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT POSSIBLE
FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE SOUTHWEST TO
WEST THROUGH THE WEEK WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL LOCATED OVER
EXTREME NE OHIO INTO NW PA AND WESTERN NY. SINCE THE AIR WILL BE SO
COLD THE SNOW WILL BE LIGHT AND FLUFFY AND WILL BE EASILY BLOWN
AROUND. THE FLUFFY NATURE WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR SOME IMPRESSIVE
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NW PA INTO WESTERN NY BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL WARM THROUGH THE DAY WITH MOST LOCATIONS
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 30 DEGREES FOR HIGHS. THE WARMING WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE EAST BUT CHILL A BIT ACROSS
THE WEST AS A STRONG COLD FRONT PASSES. HIGHS WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE
TO GET OUT OF THE TEENS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. LOWS FOR LOCATIONS
AWAY FROM THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS WILL DIP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE FORECASTED TEMPERATURES ARE COLDER THAN THE CURRENT MOS
GUIDANCE. THE REASON FOR DOING THIS IS THAT THE MOS GUIDANCE WILL
ATTEMPT TO GO BACK TO CLIMATOLOGY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. SINCE THIS
IS AN ARCTIC AIRMASS...HIGH PRESSURE GREATER THAN 1035 MB...THE RAW
MODEL TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF VERIFYING.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE PRECIP CONTINUES TO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW WITH ONLY THE EASTERN
END OF THE AREA STILL SEEING RAIN OR MIXED PRECIP. IT APPEARS THAT
A NARROW BAND OF SW TO NE ORIENTED SNOW IS TAKING SHAPE. AREAS
UNDER THIS BAND WILL SEE A PERIOD OF IFR SNOW WITH VSBYS POSSIBLY
DIPPING BELOW A MILE AT TIMES. THE NEW GUIDANCE COMING IN SHOWS
THIS BAND SAGGING SOUTH OVERNIGHT SO SOME IMPROVEMENT AT THE
NORTHERN TAF SITES IS LIKELY TOWARD MORNING. IN THE SOUTH IFR SNOW
WILL PERSIST A WHILE LONGER BUT DO EXPECT THE ACTIVITY TO LESSEN
BY MIDDAY. ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SW
LATE IN THE DAY AND EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW AT THAT TIME. VSBYS
WILL AGAIN DIP TO IFR FROM S TO N LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. VSBYS FOR
THE MOST PART WILL BE MVFR BUT KTOL WILL LIKELY REMAIN VFR MOST OF
THE PERIOD. SOME POCKETS OF IFR CIGS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WHERE THE
BAND OF SNOW PERSISTS. GIVEN THE ORIENTATION OF THE SNOW...RAPID
CHANGES IN CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY. THIS IS REALLY CHALLENGING
FORECAST SETUP.  W FLOW WILL BECOME NW OVERNIGHT AND N ON FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...PERIODS OF NON VFR LINGERING ACROSS NE OHIO AND NW PA
THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR NORTHWEST
WINDS OF UNDER 15 KNOTS AT MOST LOCATIONS. SUNDAY EVENING LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ACROSS WESTERN LAKE
ERIE TO LAKE HURON AS IT ATTEMPTS TO DEEPEN. WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHWEST TO WEST AS A COLD FRONT PASSES MONDAY MORNING. THE
STRONGEST COLD ADVECTION MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PASSES MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. WINDS MAY INCREASE TO
NEAR 35 KNOTS AT THIS POINT. IN ANY EVENT WE WILL AT LEAST NEED TO
HOIST A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR CLEVELAND TO RIPLEY IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT ON MONDAY THEN CONTINUING INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     OHZ010>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     PAZ001>003.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...MULLEN
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...MULLEN