Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 261125
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
725 AM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. THE FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS
THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY THEN LIFT BACK NORTH TO CENTRAL
OHIO ON THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE PLAINS AND SLIDE
EAST ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOSTLY EXITED THE AREA WITH A
COUPLE STRAY STORMS STILL LINGERING IN SOUTHERN MORROW/KNOX
COUNTIES. REMOVED THE HIGHER POPS FROM THE FORECAST WITH JUST LOW
POPS LINGERING IN THE EAST AND FAR SOUTH TODAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MUCH DRIER AIR ALOFT CAN BE SEEN ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY TO THE WEST AND SUBSIDENCE THIS MORNING SHOULD ALLOW
FOR CLOUDS TO TRY TO CLEAR SOME FROM WEST TO EAST BEFORE THE LOWER
CLOUDS ARRIVE WITH THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE IS STILL LOCATED NEAR TOLEDO THIS MORNING BUT WILL
QUICKLY TRACK EAST OF THE AREA BY LATE MORNING... WITH THE COLD
FRONT PUSHING SOUTH BEHIND IT. TEMPERATURES DROPPED OFF QUICKLY
THIS MORNING WITH THE RAIN BUT STAND A CHANCE TO REBOUND A FEW
DEGREES AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY IF WE GET A LITTLE BIT OF
SUN. A MINIMAL AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY MAY DEVELOP IN THE SOUTHERN
COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT SO WILL LEAVE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN OUR SOUTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TONIGHT WITH DRY NORTHEASTERLY FLOW HELPING TO SCATTER OUT THE
CLOUDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. IT WILL BE A COOL NIGHT WITH
LOWS IN THE 30S AND LOWER 40S. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS ON WEDNESDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY WILL PIVOT NORTHEAST
TOWARDS THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL TRY TO
DEVELOP AS ENERGY SHEARS OUT OF THE TROUGH AND TRIES TO ROUND THE
RIDGE OVERHEAD BUT MAY BE DISRUPTED BY THE EVOLUTION OF UPSTREAM
CONVECTION DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. KEPT POPS IN THE LIKELY
CATEGORY BUT THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO WATCH OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS OR SO. THE WEAKENING SURFACE LOW WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS
SOUTHERN OHIO LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. MOST AREAS WILL
SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AS THIS SYSTEM PASSES TO OUR SOUTH. NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER NEAR LAKE ERIE THROUGH MIDWEEK
WITH HIGHS ALONG THE LAKESHORE IN THE LOWER 50S WITH LOWER 60S
POSSIBLE TOWARDS CENTRAL OHIO.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SOME SHOWERS WILL PROBABLY BE CONTINUING PART OF THE DAY FRI FROM
THE FIRST LOW EXITING THE UPPER OH VALLEY ON FRI. HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGES SOUTH INTO THE AREA FOR A WHILE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT AND
SHOULD PRODUCE DRY...BUT COOL CONDITIONS. ANOTHER LOW WILL SLOWLY
TRACK EAST INTO OH BY MON AS AN UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
MOVES INTO THE REGION ON MON AND STALLS OVER THE AREA FOR THE REST
OF THE WEEK PRODUCING COOL AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH SHRA AT
TIMES.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE SE THIS MORNING.
SCT SHRA MAY AFFECT ERI...YNG...CLE...CAK AND MFD INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON. COLDER AIR ARRIVING FROM THE NORTH SHOULD CAUSE
WIDESPREAD LOW MVFR/IFR TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING AND HANG AROUND INTO
TONIGHT BEFORE SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT STARTS TO TAKE PLACE.

VARIABLE WINDS OF 5 TO 12 KNOTS WILL TURN TO THE NW THIS MORNING AND
INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS WHILE CONTINUING TO VEER TO THE NE THIS
AFTERNOON THRU EARLY TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...NON-VFR LATE WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI...AND PROBABLY AGAIN
SAT NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
COLDER AIR SPREADING SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKE SHOULD PRODUCE
N THEN NE WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS
COULD PRODUCE MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS WITH SOME 4 FOOT WAVES SO A
SCA MAY NEED TO BE ISSUED TODAY IF CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE GETTING A
LITTLE WORSE THAN EXPECTED.

NE WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS WED NIGHT AHEAD OF
ANOTHER LOW THAT WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS SRN OH THU AND THU NIGHT SO
EXPECTING A SCA TO BE NEEDED FOR LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU NIGHT. NE
WINDS OF ABOUT 10 TO 15 KNOTS SHOULD PERSIST FRI THRU SAT...STARTING
TO INCREASE INTO SAT NIGHT AHEAD OF ANOTHER LOW TRACKING SLOWLY EAST
INTO OH BY MON.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS



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