Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 171706
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1206 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL MOVE EAST
TODAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL
BRUSH LAKE ERIE AS IT MOVES EAST SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MOSTLY JUST COLD ADVECTION STRATOCUMULUS UNDER THE TROUGH ALOFT
FOR THIS AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE WITH A CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS MOST OF NE OH/NW PA. FOR SIMPLICITY...WILL JUST CALL THE "SLIGHT
CHANCE" A "CHANCE OF FLURRIES". THE EXCEPTION WILL BE A "LIKELY"
POP INLAND ERIE PA COUNTY WHERE THERE COULD BE A LIGHT COATING OF
SNOW...LESS THAN AN INCH. MADE A FEW MINOR HOURLY TEMPERATURE
ADJUSTMENTS...MAINLY TO KEEP TEMPERATURES NEARLY STEADY OR
SLIGHTLY FALLING THIS AFTERNOON. NO OTHER CHANGES FOR THE MIDDAY
UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
BY THIS EVENING THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH BRINGING AN
INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIFT. TEMPERATURES WILL SUPPORT
ALL SNOW BY THIS TIME AND EXPECTING TO SEE A BURST OF LAKE ENHANCED
SNOW DEVELOP...MAINLY IN PENNSYLVANIA. THE WINDOW WITH DEEPER
MOISTURE ONLY LASTS ABOUT 6 HOURS SO ONLY EXPECTING A COUPLE
INCHES OF SNOW OVERNIGHT...AND POSSIBLY A COUPLE MORE FOR INLAND
AREAS WITH THE COOL NORTHWEST FLOW ON THURSDAY. SNOW SHOWERS
WILL EXPAND ACROSS MUCH OF THE SNOWBELT BY LATE TONIGHT AND ALSO
INCLUDED SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS IN NE OHIO. SNOW SHOWERS MAY
FLARE UP ONCE AGAIN ON THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE 850-700MB TROUGH
SWINGS THROUGH. SNOW SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY ON
FRIDAY AS MOISTURE DECREASES AND HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN
FROM THE WEST.

KEPT A PRETTY PESSIMISTIC CLOUD FORECAST INTO FRIDAY AS WE HOLD ONTO
A LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW. CLOUDS WILL FINALLY START TO BREAK UP ON
FRIDAY AFTER THE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH. GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER WENT
WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S AND LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER
20S.

WE CONTINUE TO WATCH THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF MOISTURE ON SATURDAY AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTS OUT OF THE SOUTHERN STATES. THE ECMWF HAS
BEEN OSCILLATING IN BRINGING PRECIPITATION INTO NE OHIO WHILE THE
OTHER MODELS HAVE MOSTLY KEPT IT TO OUR SOUTH. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY
WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD ONTO A LOW POP ON SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE 12Z ECMWF SHOWED A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREA
EARLY SUNDAY AS AN INVERTED TROUGH SLID EAST ACROSS THE REGION.  BUT
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY THE 00Z RUN IS QUITE A BIT DRIER AND IS MORE
LIKE THE LATEST GFS.  AT ANY RATE ANY SNOW THAT DOES FALL SHOULD BE
WINDING DOWN BY THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.  GIVEN THE WINDS
AND DRY AIR NO LAKE EFFECT IS EXPECTED BEHIND THIS SYSTEM.  THE AREA
WILL GET INTO A WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN BY LATE SUNDAY AND THE
BIG QUESTION IS WHEN THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIP WILL ARRIVE.  MONDAY
AND MOST OF MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY.  ALL OF THE NEW GUIDANCE
SHOWS AT LEAST A PERIOD OF LIGHT PRECIP FOR TUESDAY.  WILL BUMP
PRECIP CHANCES UP ALL AREAS...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST.  BETTER
CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP EXIST TUESDAY NIGHT.  PRECIP TYPE IS
STILL UP IN THE AIR. TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD FOR THE MOST PART WILL
BE SEASONABLE.  SUSPECT THAT WE EVENTUALLY MAY NEED TO BUMP TEMPS UP
SOME FOR MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONDITIONS HAVE CONTINUED TO SLOWLY IMPROVE OVERNIGHT AND MOST
AREAS NOW HAVE MVFR CIGS. EXPECT CIGS TO CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY LIFT.
IN THE WEST CIGS COULD BE VFR BY LATE IN THE DAY WHILE THE LOWER
CLOUDS WILL PERSIST A WHILE LONGER IN THE EAST. STARTING TO SEE
SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. THE NEW GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW SNOW
BLOSSOMING OVER NE OH AND NW PA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE GONE
WITH A FORECAST SIMILAR TO THE 06Z PACKAGE WITH SOME IFR SNOW AT
KERI WITH SNOW SHOWERS AS FAR WEST AS KCLE THIS EVENING. W FLOW
WILL CONTINUE TO GUST TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS THROUGH SUNSET AND THEN
SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR LATE WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY ACROSS FAR NE
OH/NW PA IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. ELSEWHERE AND OTHERWISE NON
VFR AT TIMES LATE THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
VERY FEW CHANGES TO THE MARINE PACKAGE THIS MORNING.  WILL LEAVE THE
SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES GO AS IS.  WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY DIE DOWN ON
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM THE
NW.  THE HIGH WILL EVENTUALLY PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE LAKE LATE
FRIDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY.  THIS WILL CAUSE THE FLOW TO BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE FOR A TIME.  EASTERLY FLOW WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP ON
SATURDAY AND THEN BECOME SOUTHERLY BY LATE SUNDAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM
BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LEZ145>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     LEZ142>144.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...KUBINA





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