Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 291154
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
754 AM EDT FRI JUL 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A stationary front will remain across Ohio and western
Pennsylvania through Sunday morning. Weak waves of low pressure
will ride along the front. High pressure will build southeast
across the area Sunday afternoon pushing the front and the low
pressure system away from the region. The high pressure center
will move southeast by mid week allowing for a return back to
warmer temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
One lone shower developed over eastern Crawford county in
Pennsylvania. Winds aloft are so light that the showers are hardly
moving. Will keep current forecast as is. Clouds moving east
across northern counties trying to thin out. Main issue is low
clouds in the southeast. As sun comes up, clouds should begin to
thin out.

Previous Discussion...

A broad upper level trough will remain present through the day
today. This will allow a nearly stationary front to hang around
the local area today as a wave of low pressure moves east
northeast along the boundary. Due to the available moisture
present over the local area, can`t rule out the possibility that
showers and thunderstorms could develop. Some light activity
developed over northeast Indiana and the individual cells have
moved very little indicating that winds aloft are very sluggish at
best. So, any showers and thunderstorms that do develop will move
very slowly and produce locally heavy rain across an isolated
area.

We should see a bit more sun than yesterday and this will allow
temperatures to increase to the middle and upper 80s across the
area today.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
An upper level trough will move slowly east and out of the area
by Sunday. This will allow surface high pressure over the Great
Lakes area to build east southeast with time by the latter half
of the weekend.

Due to the close proximity to the stationary front and a series of
low pressure systems, the potential exists for the possibility of
showers and thunderstorms through the early portions of the
forecast period. Expecting the front to begin to make a push
southeast Saturday night into Sunday morning ahead of the high
pressure center. No severe thunderstorms are expected through the
forecast period. Only a general risk for thunderstorm development
is expected.

The high pressure will build across the local area through the
early part of next week. As the high begins to move east of the
area, a return back to warm southerly flow is expected.
Temperatures will begin to creep back well into the 80s to lower
90s at this time.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Upper level ridge axis will build overhead through the middle of
next week. Models have been hinting that energy will spill around
the building ridge on Tuesday and kick off an area of showers and
thunderstorms to our west. With high pressure and a dry airmass in
place, better chances for convection will remain west of the
forecast area but did include a low 20 percent pop in the western
counties on Tuesday night and Wednesday. Otherwise dry conditions
expected during the mid-week period with temperatures warming back
up. Did slow down the warming trend a little bit on Tuesday but
highs should be solidly in the upper 80s to near 90 degrees by
Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/...
Satellite imagery and observations show stratus deck remains
across northeast Ohio with low IFR conditions at CAK/YNG at 12Z.
Visibilities and ceilings should lift quickly this morning but
MVFR ceilings will likely linger through 17Z. Elsewhere most
locations are starting the day off VFR with mid-level clouds
moving across the northern sites.

Timing showers and thunderstorms will be the challenge for today.
A slow moving front will approach from the north and may kick off
thunderstorm activity across northeast Ohio this afternoon. A weak
area of low pressure will move into northwest this afternoon and
will also act as a mechanism to initiate thunderstorms. Tried to
time into the terminals but refinements will be needed once
activity starts to develop. Most likely time frame for
thunderstorms will be 19Z-00Z. Any thunderstorms that develop
today will be slow moving and could produce heavy rainfall.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR possible in sct thunderstorms Saturday and Sunday.
Areas of morning fog possible each morning.

&&

.MARINE...
A weak front will settle south of Lake Erie today with northeasterly
winds increasing to 10 to 15 knots. High pressure will expand north
of the lakes and remain in place through the weekend, maintaining
winds out of the east/northeast. Winds are expected to peak on
Saturday afternoon in the 10-20 knot range as an area of low
pressure moves across Ohio. Waves are expected to remain below Small
Craft Advisory criteria but will likely increase to 2-4 feet with
the onshore flow. High pressure will set up over Lake Erie from
Monday into Wednesday with light wind and wave conditions.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Lombardy
NEAR TERM...Lombardy
SHORT TERM...Lombardy
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC


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