Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KCLE 201054
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
654 AM EDT Tue Jun 20 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level trough will remain over the Great Lakes through
tonight, as a cold front settles south into the area by Friday
morning. High pressure will build east across the area Wedneday
and Wednesday night, with the front lifting back north through
the area by Thursday. The front will again push south Friday into
the Ohio valley by Friday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Minor adjustments to pop trends this morning across far NE OH/NW
PA. Added slight chance thunder mention here as well, with some
of the returns exhibiting some pulses this morning. Otherwise,
forecast remains on track so no other changes.

Previous discussion...
Fairly substantial changes to pops and weather through the day
today vs. previous forecast. Model trends have been downplaying
precip chances across the area through the daytime, slowing
down the arrival of the surface front and splitting the forcing
between a more potent northern stream wave remaining north of
the area and a weaker disturbance moving into the area after
00Z. Kept some slight chance/low chance pops across NW PA
through the morning, but most of the area remains dry through at
least 21Z. Kept pops in the low chance/slight chance range for
tonight, with a much slower pops trend than previously forecast.
Kept temps close to previous forecast for today and tonight,
with mid/upper 70s expected for highs today.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Upper trough will linger over the region Wednesday, with a
remnant cold front washing out through the day. A large area of
high pressure will build east across the Great Lakes/Ohio valley
through Wednesday and Wednesday night. Kept some low chance
AM/slight chance PM pops south along the dissipating boundary,
otherwise most areas will see fairly dry conditions. Dry
conditions will persist into Wednesday night as the ridge axis
shifts east. A warm front will lift north through the area
Thursday, with temperatures returning to the mid/upper 80s for
highs. Precip chances will increase during the day Thursday and
into Thursday night, but the greatest chances will be north of
the area. The boundary will return south as a cold front Friday
and Friday night, with increased return flow and decent moisture
flux into the Ohio valley aided by potential tropical storm
remnants. Decent forcing/deformation along the front warrants
continued likely pops Friday, dropping to chance Friday night.
Temperatures will return to near normal by Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Cold front will have pushed south of the area on Saturday with
temperatures near normal. Precipitation is generally expected to be
south of the area as a low pressure system slides northeast along
boundary across the Ohio Valley but will hold onto a slight
chance(20 pop) of thunderstorms. Saturday night should be dry
between systems with chances of showers and thunderstorms returning
on Sunday ahead of the next cold front and deepening trough aloft.
Temperatures will dip below normal into the lower 70s on Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/...
A few showers and possibly a thunderstorm may clip ERI through
07Z before shifting to the east. Elsewhere patchy BR may
develop late tonight and continued with a TEMPO at CAK/YNG.

Southwest winds will be breezy with gusts to 20 knots at all
sites this afternoon. Skies will range from sct-bkn near 5000
feet with best chances for a few showers closer to Lake Erie
and especially at ERI after as a trough swings through after
22Z. Only included a VCSH at ERI as coverage suggests storms
will be scattered and timing is uncertain heading into this
evening and the overnight period.

OUTLOOK...Low chance of non-VFR Wednesday and Thursday in
showers/thunderstorms. Increasing chances of non-VFR on Friday
as coverage of thunderstorms increases ahead of a front.

&&

.MARINE...
Westerly winds are starting off the day near 20 knots on the central
portion of Lake Erie. This peak area of winds near 20 knots will
shift east across the lake today with waves building to 3 to 5 feet
in the nearshore waters. Have issued a Small Craft Advisory and a
Beach Hazards Statement for a high risk of rip currents through 4 pm
this afternoon. Will need to monitor conditions in the Pennsylvania
waters this afternoon and could possibly have to extend a couple
more hours if winds do not start to drop off by 4 PM. Winds become a
little more southwesterly by late afternoon ahead of an approaching
trough which should push the higher waves out into the open waters.

High pressure will build over the lake on Wednesday with improving
marine conditions. The high shifts to the east coast on Thursday and
we see winds develop out of the southwest ahead of a cold front that
will push south across the lake Friday evening. The flow shifts to
the northwest behind the front but at this time it appears winds
will peak in the 10 to 15 knot range so not expecting to need a
Small Craft Advisory heading into the weekend.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Beach Hazards Statement until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for
     OHZ010>012-089.
PA...Beach Hazards Statement until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for
     PAZ001.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for
     LEZ145>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Greenawalt
NEAR TERM...Greenawalt
SHORT TERM...Greenawalt
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.