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000
FXUS61 KCLE 300829
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
429 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN PERSISTENT OFFSHORE OF ERI OVERNIGHT...WITH
SHOWERS SPREADING INTO NE ERIE PA. CONVERGENCE IS INCREASING ON THE
EAST HALF OF THE LAKE AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FILL IN TO THE WEST ALONG THIS BOUNDARY THIS MORNING.
ALTHOUGH THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE FOCUSED OUT OVER THE
LAKE...SHOWERS COULD SPREAD EAST SE TOWARDS NE OHIO.

A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS IN PLACE OVER THE CONUS
WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER JAMES BAY. THE NEXT PIECE OF ENERGY TO
MOVE THROUGH THE TROUGH CAN BE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR OVER THE UPPER
PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN THIS MORNING. THIS TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS
THE AREA BETWEEN 18 AND 00Z...PROVIDING A FORCING MECHANISM FOR
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM INITIATION DURING THE PEAK HEATING OF THE
DAY. THE SURFACE TROUGH WHICH CURRENTLY RESIDES FROM EASTERN LAKE
HURON TO INDIANA WILL NOT MOVE MUCH UNTIL THIS EVENING...KEEPING THE
BETTER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS ACROSS NORTHWEST
OHIO. THIS LOOKS LIKE THE FAVORED REGION FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
SPREADING EAST. FREEZING LEVELS WILL BE NEAR 10K FEET THIS AFTERNOON
AND EXPECT SOME OF THE MORE ROBUST UPDRAFTS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING SMALL HAIL. 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES WILL ONLY BE IN THE 15-25
KNOT RANGE AND EXPECT THE CONVECTION TO TEND TO PULSE UP AND BE
SHORT LIVED...KEEPING MOST OF THE HAIL SUB-SEVERE. CAN NOT RULE OUT
A FEW STORMS WITH HAIL APPROACHING AN INCH. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A
FEW DEGREES MOST AREAS TODAY INTO THE 70-75 RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION EXPECTED TO DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS
EVENING ALTHOUGH AN UPTICK IN CONVECTION EXPECTED OVER LAKE ERIE
AGAIN OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER FAIRLY COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS MAINLY EASTERN LAKE ERIE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FILLING BACK IN. A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NE OHIO COUNTIES. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM MID
50S INLAND TO NEAR 60 ALONG THE LAKESHORE.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND
EXPECT A FAIR AMOUNT OF LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND IT. WE WILL
ALSO HAVE A RIDGE BUILD OVER CENTRAL OHIO AT THE SURFACE SO LOWERED
POPS. HELD ONTO CHANCE POPS DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE ON
THURSDAY...MAINLY FOR WHATEVER MAY MOVE IN OFF THE LAKE. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S IN NW OHIO TO LOW 70S IN NW PA.

THE CLOSED UPPER LOW NEAR JAMES BAY WILL PULL AWAY TO THE NE FROM
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WHILE THE NEXT PIECE OF ENERGY SLIDES ACROSS
THE MIDWEST AND LEADS TO SOME DEEPENING OF THE TROUGH. CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE BEST IN NW OHIO ON FRIDAY AS THIS FEATURE
APPROACHES. IT SHIFTS EASTWARD ON SATURDAY WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED MOST AREAS...ESPECIALLY NE OHIO. EXPECTING
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES MOST AREAS...ALTHOUGH PERIODS OF MOSTLY CLOUDY
POSSIBLE. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THE PAST WEEK SHOULD FINALLY
START TO BREAK DOWN DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD.  THIS SHOULD LEAD TO
A SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN TO THE WEST ON SUNDAY SO WILL NEED TO HANG ON TO PRECIP
CHANCES...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST.  WILL TRY TO DRY THINGS OUT SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE HIGH FINALLY WINS OUT.  THE QUIET WEATHER
WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE SOUTH
ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY.  THIS MEANS MORE CHANCE POPS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN JUST A TAD BELOW NORMAL DURING THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A COUPLE OF
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ALONG THE EAST LAKESHORE EARLY THIS
MORNING. KERI MAY SEE SOME THUNDER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO WITH
SHOWERS AT KCLE AND KYNG. THE BALANCE OF THE NIGHT SHOULD BE QUIET
WITH MAINLY MID LEVEL CIGS AND PERHAPS SOME PATCHY MVFR FOG.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA TOWARD
MIDDAY. ALL OF THE NEW GUIDANCE SHOWING PRECIP BREAKING OUT ACROSS
THE AREA. INSTABILITY WILL BE LACKING BUT STILL THINK SOME
EMBEDDED THUNDER IS POSSIBLE EASTERN AREAS. MOST OF THE AREA
SHOULD SEE A 3 TO 5 HOUR PERIOD OF PRECIP. THINK CIGS WILL REMAIN
EXCEPT IN THE THUNDERSTORMS. THINGS SHOULD DRY OUT AFTER 00Z
THURSDAY. SW TO W FLOW UNDER 10 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE.

OUTLOOK...PERIODIC NON VFR IN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH
THE PERIOD. &&

.MARINE...
A SERIES OF WEAK TROUGHS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THE
NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO.  THE FIRST IS DEPARTING NOW AND A SECOND WILL
ARRIVE THIS AFTERNOON.  A THIRD WILL IMPACT THE LAKE ON THURSDAY.
EACH ONE WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF PRECIP AND PERHAPS A FEW
WATERSPOUTS TO THE LAKE.  SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST
BEHIND EACH TROUGH.  FOR THE MOST PART SPEEDS WILL TOP OUT IN THE 10
TO 15 KNOT RANGE SO SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES APPEAR UNLIKELY.  HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE POSITIONED ACROSS THE WESTERN LAKES FOR FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW ON THE LAKE. &&

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...KUBINA