Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 181342

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
942 AM EDT Tue Oct 18 2016

A cold front over lake michigan will move just southeast of the area
by late tonight and stall. A wave of low pressure moves along the
front up the ohio valley thursday into friday pulling the front off
to the southeast while the low stalls near maine on the weekend.


No major changes to the forecast...just tweaked cloud cover and
pushed back timing of scattered showers an hour or two.

original discussion...
The low level jet ahead of the approaching cold front will produce
sw winds gusting 25 to 30 knots today. The sw flow will bring
increasing moisture and clouds with a band of light shra developing
with the front early this afternoon and pushing se into the cwa.
Even though qpf will be light, models consistent with showing
measurable precip so will increase pops some more.

The sw flow ahead of the front and warm start to the day should
still cause highs to get around 80 for much of the cwa. ERI`s record
high of 80 and CAK at 82 could be possible spots to make a run at
the record.


The cold front and associated band of light shra should move into se
oh by late tonight and stall. An upper level trough digging west of
the area will provide the energy for a wave of low pressure to
develop and move along the front up the ohio river valley thu into
fri. Strong overrunning will spread shra back north across the cwa
later wed and wed night which will continue thru thu night before
finally shifting into mainly the ne fri into fri night.

Can see a good part of the area seeing an inch to maybe two inches
of rain for the prolonged event. Since the rain will be spread out
over 48 hours and conditions have been fairly dry recently, the risk
for flooding should be more limited.

Temps will be on a gradual downward course wed thru fri with highs
by fri expected to only be in the 50s and lows friday night into the
upper 30s to lower 40s. Temps aloft by the end of fri night indicate
that its possible that some of the lingering shra in the snowbelt
late fri night could mix with some wet snow or graupel.


The GFS is a bit colder than the ECMWF by Saturday morning but it
will be cold enough for lake effect precipitation regardless. The
boundary layer remains a little warm even in the GFS for snow but if
it were to verify there could be graupel or sleet or a few wet snow
flakes. Given the differences in the models, will just mention rain
showers for the time being. All of the models show a decent short
wave dropping through the trough on Saturday and will also include
a slight chance of showers across the remainder of the forecast
area. Temperatures may not get out of the 40s in the higher
terrain especially across northwest PA.

High pressure is progged to build in on Sunday. The GFS backs the
flow to southwest and warms quickly ahead of another cold front. The
ECMWF is less aggressive and keeps it cold enough for lake effect
showers to continue. Will split the difference but will keep a low
pop in the snowbelt. Temperatures will likely recover a bit and
could sneak into the lower 60s across northwest Ohio.

A weak cold front is progged to drop across the area Sunday night
with a reinforcing push of colder air Monday and a risk of lake
effect showers continuing. Forecast highs back down in the 50s.


.AVIATION /12Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/...
Gusty south winds will continue through the mid afternoon ahead
of the cold front under the low level jet. Low level moisture
will increase this morning as upward motion develops ahead of the
front and scattered showers will develop late afternoon into the
evening. MVFR ceilings and visibilities likely in some of the
showers. Winds will decrease by this evening and shift west to
northwest after frontal passage this evening, then northerly late
tonight. Some IFR stratus will likely develop tonight behind the
front from KMFD to KCAK and KYNG where the low level moisture is
slow to clear out.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR developing Wed night and continuing through
Friday. Non-VFR possible northeast OH and northwest PA Saturday.


South winds on Lake Erie will remain brisk and gusty this morning
ahead of a cold front and a small craft advisory will continue into
the afternoon. The gradient will relax this afternoon and evening
and winds will diminish rather quickly by late afternoon and
evening. Winds will shift northwest behind the front early tonight
and veer more northerly by Wednesday morning.

Low pressure is expected to develop on the front over the Ohio
Valley by Thursday. The low pressure center may track near or over
eastern Lake Erie later Thursday so there is uncertainty on the wind
speed and direction especially on eastern Lake Erie on Thursday.
North winds will increase and a small craft advisory will be needed
at some point on Thursday.

The low will be east of the lake by Friday with a cold north to
northwest flow will persist into the weekend. The small craft
advisory will likely remain in effect into the weekend.


MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for


LONG TERM...Kosarik
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