Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 221134
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
734 AM EDT SUN MAY 22 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A trough of low pressure will move south across the area today. High
pressure is expected to move slowly east across the region tonight
and then southeast to the Carolinas by Tuesday morning. The high
will become nearly stationary over the central Appalachian Mountains
through Wednesday as a warm front lifts north across the local area
by Thursday morning.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A few scattered showers have developed across northeast Ohio and
northwest Pennsylvania so will expand areal threat for showers.
Otherwise...made some minor adjustments to temperatures and dew
point temperatures.

Previous Discussion...
Upper level trough will continue to dig south across the area
today and strengthen a bit as low pressure develops in the base of
the trough. This upper level feature will cause some shower
activity that is over New York and Pennsylvania to retrograde back
west over the extreme eastern portions of the forecast area this
afternoon. I will keep only a chance pops in for the afternoon in
the extreme east. Otherwise, the rest of the forecast area is
expected to remain dry through the day. Clouds are trying to pull
out to the east and I expect clouds to also push back west into
the eastern portions of the area. Plus, surface trough will push
south out of the central Great lakes into the rest of the area and
will spread some cloudiness into the region during the day. Due to
the sun expected in the west, should see temperatures climb into
the lower 70s there. However, persistent clouds and possible
showers in the east will keep temperatures a tad cooler in the
extreme east and upper 60s to around 70 elsewhere.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Upper level trough will evolve into an upper level low pressure
system that will become situated over the Carolinas by Monday
evening. High pressure ridge will begin building east over the
forecast area Monday into Monday night. The upper level ridge will
be the dominant weather feature through mid week and will be
dominant across much of the eastern half of the United States. This
means well for those that love warmer temperatures.  This is the
beginning of a temperature trend and we should see temperatures
start to rebound by the end of this period into spring like weather.

Fair weather will prevail through mid day on Wednesday under the
influence of the surface high pressure.  The next weather feature
headed our way will be a warm front.  The front will bring with it
some limited moisture and could cause some showers and thunderstorms
to develop over the west half Wednesday and especially Wednesday
night as moisture begins to surge north with the front. Fairly
strong warm air advection will take place Wednesday into Wednesday
night. Wednesday`s highs will be around 80 all areas with slightly
cooler temperatures near the lake shore.  Overnight lows will be
much warmer in the 60s in the warm air advection pattern.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The long term forecast begins on Thursday with an upper level ridge
over the region that will remain in place through the entire long
term forecast period. This pattern will allow for warm, moist,
southerly flow to enter the area and which will aid temperatures to
reach the upper 70s and lower 80s for highs and low to mid 60s for
lows through the entire period. This is certainly the first summer-
like pattern for the area that many folks have been waiting for!

The tricky aspect of this long term forecast is the timing of
precipitation chances. Typically, a strong upper level ridge will
allow for high pressure to build at the surface and large-scale
subsidence will squash any precipitation chances. However, with this
particular upper level ridge, two embedded shortwave troughs will
move over top of it, allowing the potential for some showers and
storms to develop during the period, as the air will be modestly
unstable with temperatures in the upper 70s/lower 80s and dew points
soaring into the mid to upper 60s. On Sunday, a more robust upper
level trough from the west will approach and begin to weaken the
upper level ridge that has been in place. This system could very
well produce the most organized rain/storm chances through the
period; however, there is plenty of uncertainty with the timing and
strength of this upper level system. In addition, a lake breeze
could develop on any/all of the days in the period and could
certainly increase or diminish and rain/storm chances on any given
day. Thus, a chance pops will suffice for now until this pattern
moves closer in time into the short term.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/...
A backdoor cold front will move south across the area on Sunday.
Some mid level clouds and light rain showers/virga are moving
immediately ahead of this front. Behind the front, winds will
increase and some scattered diurnal cumulus will likely form in
its wake. Meanwhile to the east, a large area of rain sits over
Pennsylvania and New York. As the cold front progresses southward,
there is a possibility that some additional rain showers could
develop further west into eastern Ohio. Given this and the model
trends hinting at some rain out east, adding a vcsh to the KYNG
TAF. Some non-VFR ceilings could also develop around KYNG and
KCAK, if a large area of rain does develop, but left ceilings VFR
for now in the TAFs. After sunset on Sunday, conditions will be
VFR throughout. Clouds will diminish with diurnal cooling and
winds will be light from the north as high pressure builds into
the area.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in showers and thunderstorms on
Wednesday through Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds will begin light and variable for Sunday morning but will
increase from the north late morning as a cold front moves across
the area. Winds will generally be in the 10 to 15 knot range and
stay predominantly from the north. High pressure will then move in
Sunday night through early Wednesday allowing for light and
variable winds and waves 2 feet or less. A warm front will cross
the area on Wednesday shifting winds to be from the south through
the weekend. Winds will remain 15 knots or less. No small craft
advisories are expected at this time.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Lombardy
NEAR TERM...Lombardy
SHORT TERM...Lombardy
LONG TERM...Sefcovic
AVIATION...Sefcovic
MARINE...Sefcovic



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