Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 151743
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
143 PM EDT Fri Mar 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A ridge builds into our region through tonight as the core of the
ridge moves from the northern Great Plains toward the Ozarks. This
ridge then exits eastward on Saturday before another cold front
sweeps eastward through our region Saturday evening through Saturday
night. Behind the front, a trough lingers over northern Ohio and
northwest Pennsylvania for the rest of this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
1210 PM Update...
Visibilities have come up but the stratus will stick around a
while, less the far northwestern zones. Some cloud cover edits.
Damp, but dry in terms of precipitation.

Previous Discussion from 4:30 AM EDT...

W`erly flow aloft and embedded/subtle shortwave disturbances
affect our CWA through Saturday. At the surface, a cold front
extended SW`ward from near Meadville, PA to near Akron and Mount
Vernon, OH at 4 AM EDT. This front continues moving SE`ward and
should exit the rest of our CWA by 5 AM or 6 AM EDT this
morning. This front is exhibiting a gradual slope. Therefore
scattered rain showers are expected ahead of the cold front and
along the low-level portion of the front via low-level convergence
and associated moist ascent along the front. The ascent may
release weak, yet sufficient elevated instability for the
development of a few thunderstorms through about 5 AM EDT this
morning. In addition, the scattered rain showers should end
gradually from NW to SE through about 11 AM EDT this morning,
give or take an hour. Fair weather is then expected through
tonight as a surface ridge builds into our area, the core of
the ridge moves from the northern Great Plains toward the
Ozarks, and stabilizing subsidence accompanies the ridge.
Daytime highs today should reach mainly the mid 40`s to lower
50`s across roughly the eastern three-quarters of our CWA,
while highs should reach mainly the lower to mid 50`s farther to
the west. This is because strengthening subsidence accompanying
the ridge should allow low clouds to decrease considerably
farther to the west this afternoon into early evening, promoting
greater daytime heating. Overnight lows should reach mainly the
mid to upper 30`s around daybreak Saturday as at least partial
clearing continues to accompany the ridge and net low-level CAA
persists behind the recent cold front passage.

Of note, advection fog originating over central and eastern
portions of Lake Erie will continue to spread generally S`ward
and SE`ward behind the cold front this morning. Additional fog
may develop through daybreak as limited nocturnal cooling and
lingering low-level moisture from recent rainfall allow stratus
behind the surface front to expand downward. A Dense Fog
Advisory remains in effect until 11 AM EDT this morning for
central and eastern Lake Erie, NW PA, and portions of north-
central and NE OH where areas of fog with visibility of 1/2 mile
or less are expected. Will continue to monitor trends in obs
and model guidance for potential adjustments to the advisory.
Fog should dissipate late this morning with the onset of diurnal
convective mixing of the boundary layer and gradual low-level
dry air advection behind the front.

Primarily fair weather is expected on Saturday as the surface
ridge begins to exit generally E`ward and a stronger shortwave
trough aloft approaches from the Upper Midwest and vicinity. The
surface cold front accompanying the shortwave trough will sweep
SE`ward and should near the northwestern corner of our CWA
by nightfall. Isolated rain showers are possible generally along
and west of I-71 Saturday evening due to moist isentropic ascent
aloft preceding the shortwave trough axis and the potential for
showers triggered by the front to eventually outpace the front.
Intervals of sunshine and daytime heating complemented by net
low-level WAA on the backside of the ridge should allow late
afternoon highs to reach the 50`s in NW PA and the 50`s to lower
60`s in northern OH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
The theme of the short term forecast period will be an upper trough
over the eastern CONUS that will allow for more seasonable
temperatures to return to the region and allow for a persistent
chance of precipitation through the entire period. Temperature
profiles on Saturday night into Sunday will remain generally above
freezing and any precipitation for the first half of the forecast
period will be rain. 850 mb temperatures will eventually start to
fall to around -8C on Sunday night and the precipitation type will
flip to more snow. The mean low level wind will be northwesterly,
which will allow for some lake enhancement and heftier snow showers
on Sunday night into Monday. Overall, snow accumulations do not seem
significant with a melting inch of snow at worst for now.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The long term forecast period appears to be a transitional period
with the upper trough over the eastern CONUS finally departing to
the east on Tuesday. Northwest flow and generally cooler
temperatures will remain across the region and the cooler low level
flow over Lake Erie will allow for continued lake enhanced
precipitation across the eastern half of the forecast area on
Tuesday. Low level flow appears to back during the middle of the
week and warmer temperatures will advect back into the region for
Wednesday and Thursday. Wednesday should be a dry day with high
pressure trying to creep back into the region. The rain chances on
Thursday remain uncertain as there are distinct timing issues on the
next upper trough to enter the region and will keep a generic chance
of rain in the forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Friday THROUGH Wednesday/...
Will eventually lose the non-VFR stratus as the low levels
slowly dry out with high pressure moving into the region in the
post frontal environment. This will be slower to erode for the
terminals further to the east. ERI may not fully come out of
non-VFR ceilings as flow continues to come in off Lake Erie
through tonight. Winds on the increase and becoming
southwesterly Saturday ahead of the next frontal system after
00Z Sunday, and gusts reaching 15-25kts for the western
terminals.


Outlook...Non-VFR expected with periods of rain and/or snow
Saturday evening through Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Cold, northerly flow has overtaken the lake this morning behind a
cold front and dense fog has developed over the lake, mainly east of
the Lake Erie Islands. Fog should persist through the morning hours
and have a Dense Fog Advisory continuing through 11 AM. A surface
ridge will build from the southwest today behind the front and by
evening winds will try to back to the southwest across the entire
basin. A strong low pressure system will develop north of Lake
Superior and extend a cold front toward Lake Erie on Saturday.
Southwest winds will increase substantially by afternoon and may
reach Small Craft Advisory levels. The front will cross the lake on
Saturday night and westerly flow will take over. This onshore flow
should be strong enough into Sunday to merit the need for a Small
Craft Advisory, especially given increasing waves over the eastern
half of the lake. The trough and a reinforcing cold front will move
through on Sunday night into Monday and northwest flow will become
favored for early next week. The northwest flow seems sufficient
enough to likely merit another Small Craft Advisory for the eastern
two-thirds of the lake.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Jaszka
NEAR TERM...Jaszka/26
SHORT TERM...Sefcovic
LONG TERM...Sefcovic
AVIATION...26
MARINE...Sefcovic


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