Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 020700
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
300 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE HIGH WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME BY HIGH PRESSURE
NORTH OF MAINE BY FRIDAY. AN INVERTED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
EXTEND NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE HIGH
PRESSURE NORTH OF MAINE WILL SLIDE SOUTH ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD AND DOMINATE THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE
LABOR DAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TIME TO TAKE OUT THE RUBBER STAMP AND USE IT FOR THE FORECAST OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SUMMER PATTERN SET UP OVER THE REGION WITH
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE KEEPING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA
TODAY. THE HIGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST OUT OF THE OHIO
VALLEY. THE COMBINATION OF THE SURFACE HIGH AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL PRODUCE SOME SUBSIDENCE. HOWEVER...AN UPPER LEVEL POSITIVE
VORTICITY MAXIMUM WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL PORTIONS OF OHIO TODAY. THIS FEATURE WILL SPREAD SOME
POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ONCE AGAIN...UPPER LEVEL
WINDS HARDLY EXISTS. MAXIMUM WINDS UP TO 35000 FEET AVERAGING AROUND
7 TO 10 KNOTS TODAY.  THIS EXPLAINS THE VERY SLOW MOVEMENT IF ANY OF
THE STORMS LAST EVENING. ACTUALLY...THE STORMS MORPHED THERE MOTION
RATHER THAN MOVED. I ANTICIPATE THE ACTIVITY THAT DOES DEVELOP TODAY
WILL DO THE SAME WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINERS EXPECTED. THE NORTHEAST
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL LIKELY ESCAPE AND REMAIN DRY
THROUGH THE DAY.

HERE IS WHERE THE RUBBER STAMP COMES IN. PROVIDED PRECIPITATION
HOLDS OFF UNTIL PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY...MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TODAY
WILL LIKELY BE VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. SO WILL NOT DEVIATE TOO
MUCH FROM YESTERDAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES AS WE REMAIN IN THE SAME AIR
MASS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REALLY GETS AMPLIFIED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
AS OVERALL PATTERN SHIFTS ON THE WEST COAST OF THE LOWER 48. DEEP
DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIVES INTO THE WEST COAST OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS CAUSING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
TO AMPLIFY. WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR OUR LOCAL AREA...MORE HIGH
PRESSURE...WARM TEMPERATURES...AND MUGGY CONDITIONS TO PRODUCE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK
WEEK.

ONCE THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOCAL AREA BECOMES ABSORBED
IN THE SURFACE HIGH NORTH OF MAINE...AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE LOCAL AREA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. MOISTURE FLUX FROM
THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE CUT OFF AS THE HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF
MAINE BUILDS SOUTH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS WILL LIMIT THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONCE WE GET INTO THE EARLY PART
OF THE WEEKEND. ONCE AGAIN...MORE OF THE SAME WARM TEMPERATURES AND
FAIR WEATHER FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE GOING TO BE VERY SIMILAR EACH
DAY. AS A MATTER OF FACT...I THINK THIS IS THE FIRST I HAVE SEEN
THIS BUT THE LATEST MAV GUIDANCE SAYS EXACTLY THE SAME MIN/MAX
TEMPERATURES FOR THEIR RESPECTIVE PERIODS INDICATING WHAT I HAVE
BEEN SAYING ALL ALONG...NO CHANGE. I DONT REALLY SEE ANY CHANGE IN
THE AIR MASS THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NOT MANY CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM THIS MORNING.  THE
WEEKEND IS STILL LOOKING WARM AND HUMID. THERE COULD BE A FEW POP
UPS EACH DAY BUT GIVEN LACK OF FORCING IT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO KNOW WHEN
AND WHERE THEY WILL OCCUR.  COVERAGE SHOULD BE UNDER 10 PERCENT SO
WILL KEEP THE DRY FORECAST GOING.  DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS BEGIN
TO SHOW UP BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.  THE ECMWF REMAINS QUICKER
BRINGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY.  THE GFS DOESN`T
HAVE THIS FRONT ARRIVING TILL TUESDAY NIGHT.  THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
ALREADY HAD A CHANCE MENTION FOR BOTH PERIODS AND GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY WILL JUST CONTINUE WITH THAT FOR NOW.  TEMPS BOTH
SUNDAY AND MONDAY SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S MOST AREAS WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER READINGS ON TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A PATCH OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS REMAINS OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
AREA. THIS AREA SHOULD MOVE THROUGH OVERNIGHT LEAVING MAINLY SKC
SKIES BY DAYBREAK. WINDS ARE A TAD STRONGER THAN LAST NIGHT SO
MOST OF THE FOG THAT DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT SHOULD BE OF THE MVFR
VARIETY. SOME PATCHES OF IFR ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WEST TOWARD
DAYBREAK. EXPECT CUMULUS TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY. AN UPPER WAVE
WILL MOVE THROUGH TODAY AND WILL LIKELY INITIATE A FEW SHOWERS AND
STORMS. TIMING AND LOCATION ARE IMPOSSIBLE TO PINPOINT AT THIS
POINT SO WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY. LIGHT S TO SW FLOW WILL
BECOME WESTERLY AT UNDER 10 KNOTS AFTER DAYBREAK.

OUTLOOK...AREAS OF NON VFR EACH MORNING IN FOG AND HAZE. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON THE LAKE MOST OF THE PERIOD.
THIS WILL RESULT IN ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING ON THE NEARSHORE WATERS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TO
DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKE THURSDAY.  THIS WILL CAUSE THE FLOW TO
BECOME EAST TO NORTHEAST FOR A TIME.  SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN UNDER 15
KNOTS SO DO NOT THINK WE WILL NEED ANY HEADLINES.  THE FLOW WILL
RETURN TO THE SOUTH OVER THE WEEKEND.  GIVEN THE LACK OF PRESSURE
GRADIENT...SPEEDS MOST OF THE TIME WILL BE UNDER 10 KNOTS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...KUBINA


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