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000
FXUS61 KCLE 032059
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
359 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC TONIGHT DRAGGING
A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. THE FRONT WILL THEN STALL SOUTH
OF THE AREA AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS ALONG IT FOR
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE AREA
BY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
WARMER AIR HAS TAKEN A LITTLE BIT LONGER TO ARRIVE BUT IS STILL
PUSHING NORTHWARD. LOCATIONS SOUTH OF A LINE FROM ELYRIA TO MEDINA
TO WARREN LOOK TO BE IN THE CLEAR FOR ADDITIONAL FREEZING RAIN OR
SNOW. HOWEVER PARKING LOTS AND SIDEWALKS WILL REMAIN SLICK.

OTHERWISE HAVE CONTINUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NE OHIO
UNTIL 6 PM AND EXTENDED NW PA UNTIL 9 PM. IT IS EXPECTED THESE
LOCATIONS WILL ALL CHANGE OVER TO RAIN THROUGH THE EVENING. AS THE
COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT THERE SHOULD BE A TRANSITION
BACK TO SNOW. THIS MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL 3 AM OR LATER. THIS
LATE CHANGE OVER TO SNOW AND THE EXPECTED DECREASE IN DECENT LIFT
SHOULD KEEP ACCUMULATIONS TO A MINIMUM. AT WORST CASE AN INCH OR
SO ACROSS NW PA.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL AT LEAST 10 PM THEN
SLOWLY FALL THROUGH SUNRISE. MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD DIP TO THE MID
20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES STEADY TO SLOWLY FALLING THROUGH THE DAY. THERE IS A
RIPPLE OF LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL MOVE ALONG THE COLD FRONT BUT THE
BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE SOUTH. HOWEVER SOME
LIGHT SNOW WILL STILL CLIP THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE COUNTY WARNING
AREA NEAR AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM MARION TO MEADVILLE. THIS SNOW
WILL BE LIGHT BUT A DUSTING TO MAYBE AN INCH OR TWO WILL POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SINCE AMOUNTS ARE LIGHT
WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY ADVISORIES.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY AND IS
EXPECTED TO DRY THINGS OUT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE EARLY IN THE DAY AND ARE EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY DROP THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN THE REGION DIPS TO THE
SINGLE DIGITS. COLD THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT THEN SLOWLY
RECOVERING INTO THE 20S ON FRIDAY. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL DIP
BELOW ZERO IF SKIES CAN CLEAR AS EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FINALLY STARTING TO SEE A BREAKDOWN OF LONG WAVE PATTERN THAT HAS
DOMINATED THE EASTERN U.S. FOR THE LAST SEVERAL WEEKS. THE TROUGH
WILL VERY GRADUALLY LIFT MORE NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR A
MORE ZONAL FLOW OVER THE REGION. FOR THE WEEKEND WE WILL SEE A FEW
MORE CLIPPER SYSTEMS...YET THESE VERY WEAK AND MOISTURE LIMITED
DISTURBANCES WILL DO LITTLE MORE THAN BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW...POSSIBLY
TURNING OVER TO RAIN AT TIMES...MAINLY LATE SATURDAY AND AGAIN
SUNDAY NIGHT. DESPITE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL FOR
EARLY MARCH...THEY WILL FEEL NOTABLY WARMER THAN WE`VE SEEN IN SOME
TIME AS SAT-TUE EXPECTED TO EXCEED 32F. STILL FEEL THE GUIDANCE`S
CLIMATOLOGY BIAS IS PUSHING TEMPERATURES INTO THE 40S TOO
PREMATURELY SAT/SUN...COULD SEE IT HAPPEN TUE AS THE RIDGING BEGINS
IN THE PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE AREA AT THE TIME OF
THE 18Z TAFS...HOWEVER THEY ARE EXPECTED TO WARM ABOVE FREEZING
AND BECOME ONLY RAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT.
THE PRECIPITATION WILL SWITCH BACK OVER TO LIGHT SNOW AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS THE COLD AIR RETURNS. SNOW WILL END IN THE WEST AFTER
DAYBREAK AND LINGER THROUGH MID AFTERNOON IN ERI. CEILINGS WILL
DROP TO 500-900 FEET OVERNIGHT...THEN SLOWLY IMPROVE TO AROUND
1500 FEET AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN AFTER 12Z. THE SOUTHERN TAF
SITES LIKE MFD/YNG AND PERHAPS CAK COULD BE IMPACTED BY ANOTHER
WEATHER DISTURBANCE SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. THIS FEATURE COULD
KEEP CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS GOING INTO THE AFTERNOON. CONCERNED
ABOUT LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AS MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET. WITH SURFACE WINDS UNDER 15KT COULD SEE
WINDS AROUND 45KT OR HIGHER AT 2K FEET...MAINLY THIS EVENING.

.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR MAY LINGER OR REDEVELOP LATER ON WED FOR
MFD...CAK YNG AND MAYBE ERI AND CONTINUE WED NIGHT INTO THU THEN
IMPROVE.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AT THE SURFACE HAVE REMAINED UNDER 15KT HOWEVER EXPECT THEM TO
INCREASE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE TURN TO THE SW AND THEN
W. AFTER THE COLD AIR ADVECTION WEAKENS LATE WEDNESDAY...WIND SPEEDS
WILL SUBSIDE AND REMAIN AROUND 15KT THROUGH THE BETTER PART OF THE
FORECAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS WEST OF THE AREA.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     OHZ010>014-020>023-089.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ001.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ002-
     003.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...JAMISON
AVIATION...JAMISON
MARINE...JAMISON