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000
FXUS61 KCLE 212246
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
646 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT IN THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON WEDNESDAY
AND MOVE EAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
JUST A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS SHOWING UP NEAR THE OH/IN BORDER. STILL A
LOT DRY AIR TO OVERCOME SO HAVE SLOWED THE TIMING OF THE PRECIP UP
A FEW HOURS. OTHER MINOR CHANGES AS WELL.

PREVIOUS...CLOUDS AND MOISTURE ARE GRADUALLY INCREASING LATE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH DEWPOINTS SLOWLY RISING. THE REGIONAL MOSAIC ONLY SHOWS
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A LITTLE THUNDER WEST OF OHIO. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS EVENING AS IT PROGRESSES
EAST. INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW WITH MUCAPE GENERALLY
LESS THAN 400 J/KG. WILL NOT MENTION THUNDER OVERNIGHT. MODELS ARE
CONSISTENT WITH A MODEST LIGHT RAIN EVENT WITH AROUND A QUARTER
INCH OF RAIN EXPECTED. HAVE USED THE MAV GUIDANCE WITH MINOR
CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ANOTHER COOL PERIOD IS EXPECTED WITH THE COLD FRONT EXITING THE
REGION EARLY IN THE PERIOD TO BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
EXPECTED TO DIG SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY EVENING WITH
RATHER COLD AIR WHICH MAY PRODUCE A FEW SNOW FLAKES TOWARD
WEDNESDAY MORNING IN INLAND NW PA. FOR NOW WILL JUST MENTION SNOW.

TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL BE MUCH COOLER ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE
ERIE EAST OF CLE WITH FLOW OFF THE LAKE WITH LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE
MORNING. HAVE GONE COOLER THAN MAV GUIDANCE.

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TUE NIGHT AND EARLY WED EAST OF CLE
MAINLY IN THE SNOWBELT AS MOISTURE INCREASES WITH THE ARRIVAL OF
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE.

FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION. OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR FREEZING AWAY FROM THE LAKE OVER NE OHIO
AND NW PA BOTH WED AND THU MORNINGS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE ONGOING TREND OF ALTERNATING TROUGHS AND RIDGES MOVING ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIODS. THIS
TREND WILL KEEP THE WEATHER UNSETTLED AS WELL.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND AND EVENTUALLY PUSH TO THE EAST COAST
BY SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO CANADA WILL
EXTEND A RIDGE SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
AND PUMP SOME COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION. A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY
AND BRING YET ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE TO THE FORECAST AREA.

LOOKING AT KEEPING AT LEAST A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THROUGH EACH OF THE
PERIODS...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHEAST. SOME DRYING WILL MOVE INTO
THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE COLD AIR ADVECTION
EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY CAUSE A MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN TO
OCCUR IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE NORTHEAST. ALL IN ALL...NEXT
WEEKEND IS NOT GOING TO SHAPE UP TO BE QUITE AS NICE AS IT WAS LAST
WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL SURGE BACK WELL INTO THE 60S TO
LOWER 70S ON FRIDAY AS WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKE PLACE AHEAD OF THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. ONCE THE LOW MOVES EAST OF THE REGION...COLD
AIR ADVECTION RETURNS PLUNGING TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE LOWER 40S
FRIDAY NIGHT AND LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S SATURDAY. THE STRONGEST SURGE
OF COLD AIR ARRIVES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH LOWS IN
THE 30S. NOT MUCH OF A RECOVERY WILL TAKE PLACE AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION CONTINUES SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AND MINIMAL RECOVERY ON
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH CLOUDS ARE SPREADING EAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN TOLEDO AND
FINDLAY AROUND 8 AM TOMORROW MORNING AND THEN PROGRESS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS. SOME LIGHT
RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT ALONG WITH SOME LOWERING
CEILINGS DOWN TO 700 FEET OR SO ACROSS THE REGION. CEILINGS SHOULD
COME BACK UP TO VFR PRETTY QUICKLY AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE
AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS. WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OUT
OF THE NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 25 KNOTS TOMORROW BEHIND THE FRONT.
OTHERWISE...SOME INCREASE IN THE WIND SPEED IS EXPECTED IN THE
WEST THIS AFTERNOON BUT DECREASING AS WE DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT.
EASTERN AREAS SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT THIS AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR IS PROBABLE AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND TUESDAY IN
SHRA...THEN AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT IN NE OH/NW PA.

&&

.MARINE...
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS WILL OCCUR ON THE LAKE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. AS COLD AIR ADVECTION TAKES PLACE TUESDAY...WINDS WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING DIMINISHING TO LIGHT
AGAIN BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS EAST OVER THE
AREA...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE LAKE
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND WINDS WILL START TO INCREASE AS WELL INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT IN THE WARM SECTOR. SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES DRAMATICALLY BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN SHIFTS TO NORTHWEST BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.

THERE WILL BE PERIODS IN WHICH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE
HOISTED AND DROPPED THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO THE RAPIDLY
CHANGING CONDITIONS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAPLANTE
NEAR TERM...KUBINA/LAPLANTE
SHORT TERM...LAPLANTE
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY